example1

I'm going to put this out there: Doubront would be a lot to give up and I bet he's not involved. Iglesias shouldn't be either. I could be 100% wrong but I think it is less. My guess is Rizzo, Kelly, Navarro, and a lower tier prospect (Reddick, Renfroe, Alex Wilson, Kyle Weiland, Raymond Fuentes, etc.,). This is one of those places where just throwing in more prospects makes all the difference in whether the deal is a good one or not... as Jacko pointed out. If Kalish, Doubront or Iglesias are in the deal I will be very surprised and a bit more disappointed... until I see Gonzalez putting that f***ing red and white jersey on, that is.

No way do they go after Lee if this trade happens and they sign Werth or Crawford.

While I agree with the sentiment of your post, I disagree with this. Should the Sox be willing to just throw in Jose Iglesias or Ryan Kalish, Jed Lowrie or Stolmy Pimentel because the Padres ask for them as part of negotiations? We're talking about one year of a player that the Padres can't keep. A potential top tier starter and very good 1B are a lot to give up. The Sox aren't being bent over in prison here, they are making a trade. The value should be more or less equal on both sides. We always assume the 'big name' trade piece is the only real value in the trade, but prospects like Kelly and Rizzo are very, very good baseball players who are simply too young to be contributing yet. Getting those two plus would be a very good day for Padres fans.

Jesus Christ is this about to happen? I just came home from dinner and here's multiple pages worth of posts. If it really is Gonzalez for Kelly and Rizzo they should pull the trigger, and it sounds like they might be doing that. I f***ing hope so. When I heard Heath Bell too I almost had a heart attack. Gonzalez would be a HUGE addition to this team. Gonzalez means they can (and should) get Jayson Werth as a RHB compliment. That would make the 2011 lineup really formidable.

Surprising. That's a lot of money to offer for Rivera. It would have the double impact of taking him from NY, and is a very aggressive move. I can't help but see that as a hint about the Sox likely involvement in the Cliff Lee situation. If they're willing to offer $17m for a 41 year old closer when they have at least two decent CL options already, wouldn't they logically make a strong offer to Cliff Lee for the same reason? I think they will inevitably lose out on the bidding for Lee, but it is something they have to pursue. EDIT: Re: Martin How could the Sox not be interested in Martin? They've liked him so far, he won't cost prospects, only made $5m last year, and he can play 3B in a pinch. My only question is whether he would be willing to be more of a role player than a starting catcher if that's how things worked out.

You are right about Dunn. I look at Dunn and see his 40 HR, 100 RBI, .400 OBP and immediately try to compare him to full-time fielders like Fielder and Bay and Berkman. But Dunn--and probably a bunch of those other guys--is nothing more than a DH on the Red Sox. I don't think they will ever pay FA money for a horribe fielder at a busy position if they don't have to, so they're not going to move Youkilis to 3B to open a spot for Dunn to get on the field. If we put any validity in the fielding statistics then we understand exactly why the Sox don't value Dunn and a host of other players as highly as other teams do. If Dunn were an 8m/yr player then fine, but the money saved can be spent better on bullpen, early extensions, other FA players, international signings and signing draft picks.

I'm okay with that too. We're going to have to deal with mediocre throwing, but if we can sign Carl Crawford the negative impact of opponent baserunners would be reduced by like 75%.

Is Tek back? I haven't seen anything about that.

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=5875844 Description of Sox meeting with Werth today.

Didn't see this article from a few days ago: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2010/11/29/earning-his-werth-dwight-evans-thinks-so Sorry if it is already posted elsewhere. Dwight Evans and Werth are interesting comps, in terms of the type of player they are and the type of personality they bring to a team. Werth is a much more exciting player than people give him credit for. I think the bias toward recent experience unfairly lumps the prospect of Werth in with JD Drew who, despite all the value he brings, just comes across to fans as over paid and boring. I like JD Drew and haven't argued against his contract. However, I have to say that the experience of watching him is a bit frustrating and I find myself feeling underwhelmed (again, not relevant to whether he helps the team win or not). Werth is a player with similar tools, but watching him I see a guy who is not any of the above descriptions. He is a more aggressive player than Drew and he shows passion in ways that Drew doesn't. To the degree that people are frustrated with JD Drew the person, I don't think those same concerns will apply to Werth. In Werth I see more of a grizzled, Johnny Damon/Paul O'Neil/Dwight Evans type player who becomes part of the core of the team and who Boston fans could really like. He won't be the centerpiece of the team, but he could be a really valuable component for a multi-year run at the World Series.

http://twitter.com/TBrownYahoo/status/10148002958155777 Predictably, Sox meeting with Boras to discuss Beltre and Werth tomorrow. Is there ANY scenerio that makes sense for Beltre to come back? I don't think so.

Many hours without any comments, yet today was the most active rumor day of the hot stove season. Gammons said the meeting went very well and there is mutual interest. http://www.nesn.com/2010/12/peter-gammons-carl-crawford-red-sox-meeting-went-very-well-but-he-wont-come-cheap.html FWIW, Gammons has been banging the Sox + Crawford drum for a few months now so either he's a crazy old man talking out of his ass--certainly possible--or he's right that they would secretly really like Crawford.

http://twitter.com/TBrownYahoo# Apparently the Sox have been in Houston meeting with Crawford's agent. This "tweet" says they are "serious" about Crawford. Probably doesn't mean much, but it shows that the silence does not mean inactivity.

Okay, bleacher report is not news. It's not even crucial reading. Sometimes there's an interesting point or proposal. This one is interesting, but very poorly written. I want to look at Reyes and/or Wright for a minute though: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/531189-who-should-mets-trade-at-winter-meetings-reyes-or-wright The author writes: Lester is one of the best pitchers in baseball and the Sox are a competitive team. Jon Lester isn't going anywhere. 2010: 5.6 WAR, 10th in baseball 2009: 6.3 WAR, 9th in baseball 2008: 5.1 WAR, 12th in baseball 17 WAR, 3 seasons: 5.6/yr. At his contract he's one of the most valuable players in baseball--in fact, in mid-2007 Dave Cameron of fangraphs rated Lester as the #7 most valuable player in baseball. Buchholz isn't as good yet, but he's potentially on the verge. So obviously the idea of any trade involving Lester and, for my money, Buchholz is just silly. The Sox are not going to make a move like that by taking 8 steps forward and 7 steps back with their MLB team. With a number of current Sox players off the table, I would be open to a decent sized package to get David Wright. 3B is a very difficult position to fill these days. Reyes worries me a bit.

Either one of these players would make me happy. They both offer different directions for this team. The thing I like about Werth is that I think the Sox would still be interested in making a big "splash" move (probably trade) for someone more exciting (Upton, Gonzalez, Hanley, Fielder, Greinke, etc.,). I think Crawford is a very good and exciting player, but I don't think he's the superstar that many here seem to think he is. He's comparable to Werth in terms of on-field production but will cost more and might take more effort to sign. Give me Werth + (insert splash-move here) over Crawford + (insert non-splash move here).

Harsh. Welcome back. Computers are pretty hard to find these days.

Good lord, don't any of you people work? I just want to sit around all day making posts about the Sox, but I find it very hard between the hours of 8-6 (Pacific Time) due to that whole work thing. I'm sure I will comment on Jeter's condom usage later...

Or maybe this is the plant story. It's on some obscure website called redsox.com so it may just be some know-nothing crack-pot writing out of his behind: http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101129&content_id=16225100&vkey=news_bos&c_id=bos

Manny Delcarmen probably going to be let go by Colorado: http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2010/11/30/report-rockies-to-let-manny-delcarmen-go/ Could they sign him to some tiny creative incentive laden deal? We're talking like plan G here in terms of adding bullpen depth, but I bet Delcarmen would love to come back to Boston.

So many people making a big deal out of Cameron. I don't see what the big deal is. The Sox managed to have Mike Lowell on the roster for most of the year last year doing NOTHING despite being mostly healthy. If Cameron is healthy he will play regularly (CF against LHP maybe? a spot start here or there). Yeah, he might not be worth the money they paid him but not every move works out. Hell, he might even teach Ellsbury a thing or two about how to play a good CF. Best case scenario he's a more-than-servicable player who filles in when someone is injured of wins a starting job on his own. I can hope. VMart's value drops hugely as a 1B or DH. The Sox only paid Papi because they want him for 2011 not 2012. That seems obvious. They built that price into the original contract because it was tolerable if they had to swallow it; fortunately, the dude can still rake (at least vs. RHP) and they need a DH. I'm glad they were willing to spend a bit extra to get the guy and the contract they wanted.

That's a question worthy of further exploration, no? Since 2006 (per BB Ref): Dunn: 787 G, 3266 PA Fielder: 677 G, 3386 PA Dunn: 99 Runs Above Replacement (RAR); 20 RAR/YR; 10.2 WAR Total Fielder: 152 Runs Above Replacement (RAR); 30 RAR/YR; 15.6 WAR Total oWAR (Wins above replacement, without concern for fielding. Offensive measure) Dunn: 17.0 Total; 3.5 AVG Fielder: 19.4 Total; 3.9 AVG REGULAR STATS: Overall Dunn: .252/.378/.524/.902, 1407 TB, 132 OPS+ (Per-162): 41 HR/105 RBI/ 292 TB Fielder: .279/.386/.536/.922, 1555 TB, 140 OPS+ (Per-162): 38 HR/107 RBI/ 316 TB I don't think those would justify $100m more, but Fielder being young and very consistent in his own right will probably warrant a bigger payday. Dunn is really bad in the field, and that's where his reduced value comes in. If either he or Fielder would be the DH, their offensive differences won't be worth a huge difference in pay. If they are hiring a DH, Fielder is who I would prefer if $$ is not an issue. Adrian Gonzalez is my preference above both, obviously

I agree with everything except this. With very little offense Beltre put up pretty decent WAR year after year. The defense is what made the risk worth taking.