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I think one of my greatest strengths as a baseball fan is to look at things objectively and NOT through "Red Sox colored" glasses. I don't deny my fandom, but I don't let it cloud my judgement. This guy very simply is not worth Coco Crisp or Wily Mo Pena. He's a risk because of his health concerns, the fact that he's spent his whole career (other than a couple days in the Red Sox organization after being part of a botched Suppan trade that had to be redone) in Pittsburgh which is in a weak NL Central with no DH and very little fan pressure. Not to mention his strikeout totals are down (slightly) and his walk totals are up (A LOT). His ERA (2.34) in my mind is deceptive. That having been said although he is a risk he also has potential, but that potential isn't as valuable in my mind as an everyday player like Crisp or Pena (or LaRoche for that matter). If the Pirates can get Adam LaRoche for Gonzalez they should jump on it-- but I don't think they will because of the concerns I've mentioned above. Eric Hinske is not a great player and has never lived up to the hype. However, he does have solid on base ability and position flexability and has some value. Hinske + a mid-level prospect is a fair price for Mike Gonzalez.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2696321 ESPN also reporting it. Sounds like the Red Sox flinched-- although we won't know until something is announced. But Daisuke coming back with the team is certainly GOOD news.

Given what everyone else is making, you're exactly right. I'd pay up to $14 million per season for Matsuzaka in this market

Left. He's much better suited for left anyway.

If the rumors are true that Boras countered with 6 years and $66 million, the Red Sox would be morons not to take it. I've held the opinion all along that it's in the best interest of all parties to make this deal happen, so I'm still optimistic that it'll get done.

In a market where Gil Meche gets 5 years $55 million, Matsuzaka is ABSOLUTELY worth 6 years $66 million. If that's the offer, the Red Sox should take it in a heartbeat.

the last 2 years Gonzalez K's/9 are down and his BB's/9 are up. His health is a concern by itself, but 30 walks in 50 innings (which is what he did in both of the last 2 years) is a recipe for disaster in the AL East IMO. I wouldn't give up Crisp by himself for Gonzalez let alone Crisp+. On the same token, Cabrera + Proctor is too much for this guy. It's a sign for how bad the market's going that these two teams are even CONSIDERING trading everyday talent for an average reliever.

Somehow I doubt this was about the money being offered for 2007. In Boston, where success is so important that if Dotel struggled out of the gate he may lose his job. This deal is about Octavio getting a chance to be a closer all season and hopefully get bigtime money after proving he's healthy. He had Tommy John in 2005 which would mean that he wasn't at full strength last season. It typically takes a year and a half for pitchers to fully recover, which would put him pretty much at full strength to start 2007. That having been said, my guess is that the Red Sox didn't guarantee him the closer's job (and why should they, he hasn't exactly excelled in that role) and he took the sure thing.

I imagine if buying out a players' contract was legal it would have happened years ago. Why bother going through the posting system when a guy's 26 when you can buy him outright when he's 24? The Yankees would have thought of this already. I am in agreement that this deal gets done. Matsuzaka's said it's his DREAM to play in the Major Leagues and I imagine the Red Sox who've dished out a ton of money aren't going to let a few million prevent them from adding one of the best young arms in the world. Scott Boras is no doubt waiting for the other big arms to come off the table-- which Schmidt just got his (3 years, $47 million) and if he can he controls Zito and Matsuzaka at this point. I'd say $12 million a season is fair and probably what he'll get.

What this guy deserves is a 1 year deal in the $3-4 million range with incentives that make it worth $8ish. What he'll probably get is $5-6 million + incentives. In a market where Meche gets $11 million a season for 5 years a $6 million commitment to Gagne doesn't seem like that much.

I agree 100%. Crisp is IMO a good player (a much better player than he showed last season) but until he proves he can get on base in front of the big boys the same way Lugo and Youkilis can hit him in the back of the lineup. Also, Coco's the fastest player on the team and you're wasting his speed hitting him leadoff. If he gets on base with Papi and Manny coming up you're telling him to keep himself on first (aka not make an out on the basepaths) because Manny and Ortiz have the chance to give you 2 runs with a longball. With Pedroia hitting behind you, run him wild because they're not going to walk Dustin to face the top of the order.

Kemp, Broxton, and another top prospect is NOT too much for Manny Ramirez. Kemp's a nice bat and at 21 hitting the major leagues has a ton of potential, but let's not forget that this dude has 154 major league at bats to his credit. I don't even want to get into all the ROY winners who flopped after winning the award because opposing pitchers figure him out. If the Sox are getting unproven players (and Broxton, Kemp, Billingsley, Loney, LaRoche, etc haven't proven a damn thing) they need quantity because the quality is unknown. I don't buy into the Manny being a distraction thing one bit. He's done this crap for years now and the Sox just live with him. Sure, they don't like it, but they deal with it because of his bat. I'm all for the Sox trading him to get younger, more athletic, etc, but they're better off keeping him and dealing with the consequences than trading him for eighty cents on the dollar. If they settle into a "we must trade Manny for the best deal possible" attitude they'll get burned IMO. Brad Penny's OK, but his strikeout rates and the fact that he's never pitched in a hitters park or the AL scare the crap out of me. This guy is a lesser arm than Beckett and we saw how his transistion went. IMO-- this guy gets eaten alive in the AL East. The Dodgers have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball and have a need for a productive bat. The Red Sox need to take advantage of having the best available hitter on the market and get value in return. Another thing to keep in mind is that Loney and LaRoche tore up AAA last year, but Las Vegas is a hitter's paradise and their numbers are inflated. They are good prospects but inevitably overrated. Kemp, Broxton, Billingsley, and either Loney or LaRoche is what I'd ask for and if they don't accept, T.S. Take Manny back and hit him in between Ortiz and Drew.

Foulke didn't allow a run in 11 September innings which skewed his post ASB numbers. I will preface what I'm about to say by pointing out that 17.2 innings, his workload after the All Star Break, is not a very good sample size either way. While it's nice that he did shut out opponents in September, I took a look at his #s compared to 2004 (when he was a dominant closer). His K/9 average went from 8.5 in 2004 to 6.5 in 2006. A pretty dramatic drop off. Also in 2004 he allowed 6.8 hits/9 and .86 HR/9, and averaged 1.5 BB/9. In 2006, those numbers were: H/9: 9.42 HR/9: 1.63 BB/9: 1.32 So his walks were down, but homeruns and hits per 9 were way up. Hits/9 can be associated with luck, and I don't have the numbers handy now, but his strikeouts going down and homeruns going up are definately bad signs. If he accepts arbritration doesn't he have to be offered at least 80% of his 2006 salary (which was $7.5 million?) That's $6 million. I can see why he'd accept because I don't see him making this on the open market for a 1 year deal.

Jayson Stark of ESPN is reporting that the Red Sox are one of a few teams interested in Octavio Dotel. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2685697 If this is true and the Guardians tab Borrowski as their closer as previously rumored this could put the Red Sox in the lead. If he really is healthy he's a good pitcher but I've got my doubts about him as a closer.

I started a thread about this guy in the rumors section because I'm a big fan. Hall is a decent bat and could start at third, short, or second. Given that we've got an unknown at second (Pedroia), No shortstop whatsoever, and Lowell at third this guy makes a TON of sense. If I'm the Sox I try to put together a package of mid-level prospects for Hall.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/12/01/sox_nixon_in_07/ This article focuses on Nixon at the beginning, but the underlying principle is trading Manny to San Diego for Peavy+ and bringing Nixon back to platoon with Pena in Manny's vacated spot. I love the prospect-laden LA deal I proposed yesterday, but if the Padres really are willing to trade Peavy, a 26 year old ace caliber pitcher, the Sox have to consider that the top option. J Peavy,A Gonzalez, S Linebrink?

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=536837 Deep down in this article there's a note about how the Brewers are planning on moving Bill Hall to left field. Given that he hasn't proven that he can hit 35 home runs with any sort of regularity, my opinion is that he loses a ton of value as a corner outfielder versus being a shortstop/third/second baseman. Given the Brewers' plethora of players to cover those positions, it seems they might be willing to move Hall who looks like the odd man out. I'd be surprised if he hit 35 homeruns again but he's probably a 20ish homerun hitter and a solid defensive player. Plus, he's versatile so he could shift to third if Lowell attracts attention on the trade market. He might be a cheaper option than Lugo and is only 26 so his best years are ahead of him. I figured I'd throw his name out there as a candidate to play shortstop. No idea what the Brewers would want in trade, but with Hardy, Koskie, Weeks and now Counsell as a backup leaves Hall with no place to go but in the outfield. Seems the Sox should at least look into it.

good length too on a 31 year old. Hopefully he becomes more than a specialist-- but at least he should get lefties out. The bullpen is in sad shape right now so any move that improves that is a plus, and all this cost them was money.

Schmidt's a good pitcher, but in all honesty do the Cubs need another injury risk? For a few years now the Cubs have been considered contenders in March because of the POTENTIAL of Prior and Wood, meanwhile Zambrano carries the staff and they're a last place team. Wood's a reliever, Prior was awful last year, and IMO the last thing they need to do is add another name to their DL. Shouldn't they go after less risky arms? Yes it'd be nice to add Schmidt because he's one of the best FA pitchers out there, but to me it seems like they need more of a sure thing. Schmidt's a high risk high reward type guy to me (ala Prior and Wood).

what puzzles me about a potential Manny trade is that despite the fact that his value is highest now than at any other time his name surfaced on the trade rumor mill, the word on the street is that the Sox have LOWERED their demands. In today's market, $17 million for 2 years of one of the best run producers in the game is a bargain money wise, it's just a question of what talent the Sox can get. IF Manny is traded, the Dodgers seem like the most realistic option. They lost Drew and need a run producer, and Ned Colleti has shown he's willing to trade prospects. In my mind the Red Sox have 4 major holes right now (in no particular order): Lack of talent at the upper minors, shortstop, right field, bullpen. Assuming RF will be solved by Drew, this leaves 3 issues. We've got to strengthen all of these areas. Like others have said Lugo is solid but not spectacular. One thing the Dodgers have is a pretty solid shortstop who's 2 years younger than Lugo and IMO better. Trade idea: Dodgers get: Manny Ramirez Red Sox get: Furcal, Kemp, Broxton, Billingsley Sox order: Furcal (SS), Youkilis ( 1B ), Drew (CF), Ortiz (DH), Lowell ( 3B ), Varitek C), Pena (RF), Crisp (LF), Pedroia ( 2B ) Rotation: Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Papelbon Bullpen: Broxton, Timlin, Tavarez, Breslow, Billingsley, (Hansen/Delcarmen as potential callups) The advantage to Billingsley is that he can supplement the bullpen now and be a potential emergency starter if/when injury happens. If Lester ever comes back strong the future rotation of Beckett, Billingsley, Papelbon, Lester, and Matsuzaka looks pretty good to me. If no Furcal include LaRoche or Loney and sign Lugo. It's a lot of young talent but this is Manny Ramirez we're talking about. If the Dodgers aren't willing to cough up then keep Manny. Afterall he's a bargain at $17 million a year in this market, remember? Drew and Lugo can still be added and the lineup will be pretty solid. Sox order: Lugo (SS), Youkilis ( 1B ), Ortiz (DH), Manny (LF), Drew (RF), Lowell ( 3B ), Varitek C), Crisp (CF), Pedroia ( 2B ) Rotation: Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Papelbon Bullpen: Timlin, Tavarez, Breslow, Hansen, Delcarmen If the Red Sox trade Manny Ramirez in this market they should get extremely good value. Despite all the B.S the Sox have to put up with, at the end of the day his bat is extremely valuable. They've got to plug some holes if they trade him.

The Sox have to be really careful trading Manny Ramirez for obvious reasons. #1. it would suck to have to FACE him #2 he's hard to replace #3 his departure would impact the lineup significantly. In my mind if you trade Manny Ramirez BEFORE any free agents are signed you can get some value because teams feel like they're striking early and getting a good deal based on what they THINK the market is for guys like Soriano and Lee. If you trade him afterward, the price will be higher (in theory) because all the teams that lost out on adding the big bat will then be left with no options. However, if you wait and trade him after all the big names are signed, you have to worry about his replacement. If it's me, and I'm trading Manny Ramirez, I need some serious value in return. Yes, he's a headache, but he's one of the most productive hitters EVER. Trading him to Anaheim is nice in theory,and I'm a HUGE Cabrera fan, but who protects Ortiz? The last thing we need is this guy taking MORE intentional walks. If it's me I try to corner the market on power hitters by adding one early. Soriano isn't the Red Sox' type, but Drew and Carlos Lee are more like it. If you sign, say JD Drew, losing Manny has less of an impact because you've got another power bat. If the rumors are true, the Sox are offering 2 years, $30 million. If it's my choice I push hard to trade Manny and receive Miguel Tejada in return. I know the Orioles would hate to see him on another team within the division, but he's an excellent offensive player (could hit in between Ortiz and Drew) and a good defensive player. Plus, he fits a NEED (shortstop). Michael Young would be a distant second choice. Also, losing Manny would hurt Ortiz but replacing him with Tejada (a fellow Dominican and a FRIEND OF DAVID's) would lessen the blow. I haven't worked out the particulars in my head yet, but a deal (maybe 3-way) where we get Tejada + for Manny and cash makes a lot of sense to me.

I wouldn't doubt that. Theo has shown that he doesn't get attached to any one player and Beckett at 26 years old still has a TON of value. He'd have to get a lot for him IMO, but I doubt anyone is considered untradable. Considering what the Sox gave up to get for him, it would have to be a hefty price. Otherwise hold onto him and let him adjust to the AL (which I believe he will do).