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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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Originally I was going to wheel and deal but after looking over the Red Sox commitments for 2025, I realized I should just "money" my way through the offseason. Instead of trading for Crochet, sign Snell. I don't even like Snell much, particularly from a fan perspective. Watching him pitch is like watching someone slowly pull out your fingernails with pliers. But he's really good. The easier choice in the rotation is Max Fried. No-brainer there, IMO. The one trade I did execute was one year of Devin Williams to close out games. He gives security at the end of a bullpen that badly needs it. Given that he has only one year of control remaining, it should be relatively easy to acquire him without dipping into the big four. On the position player side, I kept it simple. Sign Teoscar Hernandez for 3-4 years. He gives the right-handed thump this lineup needs without shuffling too many pieces around. If there is a way to move on from Yoshida without eating 100% of his contract, I absolutely do that. C: Connor Wong ($0.80M) 1B: Tristan Casas ($0.80M) 2B: Vaughn Grissom ($0.80M) 3B: Rafael Devers ($27.07M) SS: Trevor Story ($22.50M) LF: Jarren Duran ($4.90M) CF: Ceddanne Rafaela ($1.25M) RF: Wilyer Abreu ($0.80M) DH: Teoscar Hernandez ($20.00M) 4th OF: Rob Refsnyder ($2.25M) Utility: David Hamilton ($0.80M) Utility: Masataka Yoshida ($18.6M) Backup C: Kyle Teal ($0.80M) SP1: Tanner Houck ($4.50M) SP2: Kutter Crawford ($3.50M) SP3: Brayan Bello ($2.66M) SP4: Max Fried ($26M) SP5: Blake Snell ($32M) RP: Liam Hendricks ($6.00M) RP: Zack Kelly ($0.80M) RP: Josh Winckowski ($0.80M) RP: Greg Weissert ($0.80M) RP: Lucas Giolito ($19M) RP: Luis Guerrero ($0.80M) RP: Justin Slaten ($0.80M) RP: Devin Williams ($8.5M) Payroll is 3.63% over budget
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It's time to pretend you're the GM of the Red Sox!
Brock Beauchamp replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
@Bellhorn04 and @Hugh2 use the payroll tool, you dorks! https://talksox.com/payroll-blueprint -
It's time to pretend you're the GM of the Red Sox!
Brock Beauchamp replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
If you have suggestions for the internal options category, please comment here. -
Welcome to the “You’re The General Manager!” tool for the 2024-2025 offseason! This is a fun feature we release every offseason, allowing users to play the role of front office executive and build their dream roster for the 2025 season. https://talksox.com/payroll-blueprint The tool is pretty straightforward, though it works better on desktop so keep that in mind (but this kind of work is hard to do on a phone anyway so best to wait until you’re in front of a computer). In the left two columns, you have the 26-man roster. Fill these out as you see fit and each salary you add for a player will change the Total number on the right. The Budget is set to $200m but that’s just a guideline, there is no penalty for going over or reward for staying under. Below the 26-man roster you will see the top 50 free agents listed with expected 2025 salary courtesty of MLB Trade Rumors to use as a guideline for building out your roster. On the right, you will see a title so you can add a custom note for your moves (eg. Sign Juan Soto!) and after you save, your blueprint will save and publish in this forum with the title “YourUsername’s Offseason Blueprint: Sign Juan Soto!” Below the title, type out your reasoning for your moves, comment on any trades you’ve devised, and set the tone for your roster thread. If you want to complete this in stages over time, there is a Save As Draft button so you can come back to it later. When you’re finished and ready to publish, click Share Blueprint To Forums and you’re done! By the way, you can create as many blueprints as you like over an offseason; this isn’t a one-and-done feature. If you want to re-think your roster in mid-December, come back and try again!
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MLB Trade Rumors released their top 35 trade candidates for the 2024-2025 offseason. The only Red Sox player to make the list is outfielder Wilyer Abreu. There is consternation from both within and without the organization that the Red Sox need to become less left-handed in 2025. While they have several options to accomplish this goal (Abreu, Triston Casas, and Jarren Duran), Abreu is probably the easiest choice of the three: Casas is a work in progress, Duran is wildly valuable in the here and now, and Abreu sits in the middle. He carries significant value today after a strong rookie campaign (114 OPS+), has lengthy team control at the minimum salary, and can be flipped to fill a need in 2025 without causing catastrophic damage to the Red Sox lineup.
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MLB Trade Rumors released their top 35 trade candidates for the 2024-2025 offseason. The only Red Sox player to make the list is outfielder Wilyer Abreu. There is consternation from both within and without the organization that the Red Sox need to become less left-handed in 2025. While they have several options to accomplish this goal (Abreu, Triston Casas, and Jarren Duran), Abreu is probably the easiest choice of the three: Casas is a work in progress, Duran is wildly valuable in the here and now, and Abreu sits in the middle. He carries significant value today after a strong rookie campaign (114 OPS+), has lengthy team control at the minimum salary, and can be flipped to fill a need in 2025 without causing catastrophic damage to the Red Sox lineup. View full rumor
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
Brock Beauchamp replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Welcome to Talk Sox! -
Welcome back! I can help you retrieve your old account if you like.
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Even if Duran peaked in 2024 - and he probably did - trading him out of a pure value move is Rays-like... and the Red Sox should not emulate that side of the Rays organization. They don't need to, it's one of their inherent advantages over teams like the Rays, Brewers, et al. If Duran drops to being a four win player, that's still incredibly valuable and the kind of player you keep around if you want to contend. Go out and buy an ace or trade some prospects, you don't need to dip into the MLB squad.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
Brock Beauchamp replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Welcome to Talk Sox! -
It's kind of amazing that the Padres even have a farm system at this point.
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- dave dombrowski
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The Red Sox have made a habit of trading away quality pitching prospects, dealing away a small army of young arms this offseason in their myriad of trades aimed to improve the major-league roster. And yet, they made a few names untouchable in trade talks (spoiler alert for the rest of our top-20 rundown): Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kyson Witherspoon, and Juan Valera. That's some lofty company for Valera, 19, to find himself in after just two seasons of full-time ball. But the teenager out of the Dominican Republic has earned the hype, even after a 2025 season that flashed some red flags. Across 10 starts with High-A Greenville, Valera consumed 38 innings while posting a 5.45 ERA and 3.97 FIP. The more advanced hitters at the level were able to square him up frequently, as he surrendered six home runs in just 167 plate appearances. That being said, the underlying metrics are tantalizing. He struck out 27.5% of hitters and walked just 6.0% of them, displaying a mastery of the strike zone you almost never see in young pitchers. That control is even more impressive when you consider that Valera throws a high-90s fastball and a gyro slider with big break both horizontally and vertically. Those offerings play nicely off each other; his fastball features some natural cut action (i.e., movement to his glove side) and his slider displays some sweeping tendencies while still retaining vertical break. To combat his two primary offerings both featuring glove-side action, Valera has been tinkering with a changeup, but it is certainly his weakest offering. It's firm and a little flat, lacking the fading action that he needs to really work both sides of the plate. Still, because the pitch routinely flashes in the low-90s, he's able to use it effectively down in the zone. The bigger concern is health, as is the case for most pitching prospects with elite velocity. He missed multiple months in 2025 while tending to elbow soreness, though he returned to Greenville by the end of the regular season and reportedly had a "normal" offseason in terms of preparation. That's worth monitoring as he climbs further up the ranks, but he and the Red Sox appear to have dodged a bullet for now. Valera's delivery actually reminds me a bit of Nestor Cortes. Though he's less eccentric on the mound that the former New York Yankees southpaw, he's got a simple, repeatable motion that he'll deviate from in an effort to mess with hitters' timing. He doesn't change much more than his tempo — and he certainly doesn't freestyle in the way Cortes does — but the young right-hander does have an advanced feel for his mechanics and isn't shy about altering his style in order to gain the upper hand. He still needs to hit key developmental goals (a third and even fourth reliable offering would be game-changing) and prove that he can handle even a semi-reliable workload (his career high in innings is 63 1/3), but Valera's arrow is pointing upward heading into 2026. Despite not turning 20 until May, he'll likely crash Double-A before the All-Star Break, with a slim chance to make it to Worcester if he remains healthy all year long. By this time next year, he could be the consensus top prospect in the system.
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The second right-handed pitcher featured on the top 20 prospect list, Yordanny Monegro, is hard to miss, standing 6’4”. He was signed as an international free agent in 2020. This season, he posted a 6-2 record over the 2024 season with a 2.73 ERA, 3.34 FIP, and an 11.18 K/9. He features a fastball that sits 92-96 mph, a slider, a curveball, and a change-up. Unfortunately, no pitch profiles as a true strikeout pitch, which limits his usability as he progresses throughout the minor leagues. Should he add another pitch to the mix and hone his fastball to be more effective, he would profile as a middle-inning reliever.
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Hunter Dobbins was selected in the eighth round of the 2021 draft out of Texas Tech. He began the year in Portland before being called up to Worcester towards the end of the season. Combined, he went 8-5 with a 3.08 ERA, 2.82 FIP, and an 8.59 K/9. He notched one quality start in Worcester, his only win of the season. However, during those four games in Worcester, he brought his ERA down from 3.17 to 2.61. Dobbins showcases a fastball that sits 93-96 mph and tops out at 98 mph, a split-finger sinker, cutter, slider, sweeper, curveball, and splitter. He currently profiles as a long reliever and could reach a ceiling of back-end starter if his pitch mix is reigned and he focuses on plus pitches.
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Wikelman Gonzalez was signed as an international free agent in 2018 and has spent the last two years at Portland. This year, he went 4-3 with a 4.73 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and 9.90 K/9. He features a fastball that sits 94-96 mph and tops out at 97 mph, a curveball, a change-up, and a slider. His curveball and change-up have a lot of potential to be true strikeout pitches when combined with a fastball that plays a bit above its speed. Both have the potential to be plus pitches with a bit of refinement. Currently, he has a ceiling of a mid-tier starter and, with a bit more success in Portland, should be in line for a promotion to Worcester during the 2025 season.
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The Red Sox drafted Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz in the fourth round in 2021 out of Leadership Christian Academy in Puerto Rico. He has not made it above High-A ball with the Greenville Drive. He features a four-pitch mix: a fastball that tops out at 99mph, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. His command leaves a bit to be desired if you’re looking at him as a potential starter in the big leagues, and he currently doesn’t have a put-away pitch, even with his fastball topping out at 99mph. This season, split between Salem and Greenville, Rodriguez-Cruz appeared in 21 games, starting 20, and went five and five with a 2.91 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 10.24 K/9. What the overall stats don’t show is that once he made the jump to Greenville, his ERA jumped by more than a run per inning from 2.51 to 3.77, his K/9 fell from 10.77 to 9.10, and his BB/9 went from 3.69 to 5.65. Unfortunately, Rodriguez-Cruz looked to be moving in the wrong direction when faced with tougher competition. Currently, he profiles as a long reliever type.
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Chase Meidroth was a name that started popping up with the Red Sox faithful when injuries began to pile up for Boston in the second half of this season. There was a good reason for that. When it was apparent Rafael Devers was dealing with some big-time shoulder issues and the team was still in the playoff race, they needed someone to handle the hot corner should Devers be unable to avoid the IL. Meidroth probably would have been the guy called up to do that. He spent all last season in Worcester, hitting .293 with a .437 OBP, .838 OPS, and a .332 BABIP. Meidroth isn’t a power hitter and probably doesn’t profile as a third-baseman in the majors, but he has the type of swing to play the gaps in the outfield. Unfortunately, there is very little speed behind those hits. He wouldn’t be able to turn a single into a double on many occasions, but he can get on base, and that’s what’s important.
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#9 RHP Richard Fitts ( Worcester Red Sox, Boston Red Sox) Richard Fitts came over to the Red Sox in the December trade that sent Alex Verdugo to the New York Yankees. There was some debate amongst fans about whether he would break camp with the big club after the injury to Lucas Giolito, but the team decided that he should spend the bulk of the season at triple-A Worcester. Fitts went 9-5 with a 4.17 ERA and 4.86 FIP in Worcester. The Red Sox added him to the 40-man roster on September 8 and he made his first big-league start that same day, striking out two over 5 2/3 innings and allowing six hits, one walk, and two unearned runs. He would continue to pitch much the same way through the end of the season, going 18 2/3 innings before allowing an earned run. He finished 0-1 despite running a 1.74 ERA over four starts and 20 2/3 innings. His FIP was a more reasonable 3.31, thanks to the fact that he didn't allow a single home run. Fitts features a four-pitch mix: a four-seam fastball that averages 94.5 mph and tops out at 97, a sweeper, a tighter slider, and a splitter. None of his pitches will dazzle you; they grade out as fairly average, although Stuff+ gives his slider-sweeper combo an excellent 132. Fitts ran extremely low whiff rates during his time with the Red Sox, but the fastball can play up above the zone. When used in conjunction with his sweeper, he has shown the capacity to miss bats in two directions to keep hitters off balance and on their toes. Despite those two examples, Fitts ran an extremely low 15% whiff rate and struck out just 3.9 batters per nine innings in Boston, compared to the 8.6 K/9 he ran against lesser competition in Worcester. Fitts' big-league sample size was very small, and his lack of swing-and-miss needs to be fixed this offseason. He won't be able to avoid the long ball indefinitely, especially as a fly-ball pitcher in Fenway Park. However, if 2024 was any indication of what's to come, Fitts looks like the kind of pitcher who can slot into the back end of a rotation without issue. His ceiling is a number three starter, but you'd feel comfortable seeing him take the mound every five days.
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Luis Perales has been in the Red Sox system for quite some time now, signing for $75,000 in the summer of 2019, and yet the right-handed pitcher will only be in his age 22 season in 2025. What was once a not highly-touted prospect out of Venezuela has quickly become the Red Sox’s top pitching prospect despite a series of injuries. Since debuting in the Sox system in 2021 Perales has thrown 161 innings across 44 games, 42 of them starts. Yet despite all the injuries and setbacks, Perales reached Double A in 2024, where in two games, he surrendered only a single run in 7 1/3 innings and struck out ten before the need for Tommy John surgery cut his season short. In November of 2023, Perales was added to the 40-man roster to be protected in the Rule 5 draft. In 2024, Perales made nine starts, throwing 33 2/3 innings with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. More impressively, however, was the young right-hander’s strikeouts per nine innings, where he had a career-high of 15 and tied his career-low for his walks per nine at 3.2. Despite the strong start to the season, Perales suffered an elbow injury in June and Tommy John surgery near the end of the month, which will likely keep him out of pitching until late 2025. What to Like: Perales has an incredible fastball; FanGraphs has it sitting between 96-98 mph and topping out at 100 before his surgery. The velocity of his fastball had already improved since 2023. Along with the speed, the pitch has around 20 inches of induced vertical break, allowing it to play up in the zone to induce swinging strikes. Along with the fastball, he has a variety of other pitches as he throws a cutter, slider, and changeup. While none are as good as his fastball, his cutter and slider are interesting pitches. His cutter has shown flashes of potential but will need a more consistent arm speed to make it more deceptive. Perales gets an 11-to-5 shape with the slider, and it’s viewed as advanced for his age. With a good feel for the spin, he can locate either in or out of the zone for swinging strikes. What to Work On: Right away, he needs consistency with his delivery and the ability to repeat it better within outings. If he can’t become consistent with his delivery, his potential role would likely be out of the bullpen. Another aspect that Perales must improve is his ability to handle a full season’s workload. While he can’t control Tommy John surgery, Perales has only pitched in 10 or more games twice in his career, in 2022 and 2023, the latter being when he pitched in a career-high 21 games. Finally, his changeup and cutter need improvement. These two pitches have shown to be his most inconsistent when pitching. While the changeup has a chance of being an average offering for Perales, it seems his cutter will be below average even if he improves it. What’s Next: Coming off of Tommy John surgery, it is likely that Perales will miss most of the 2025 season. Depending on the Red Sox's position in the playoff race, there is a chance they could have him rehab as a reliever in hopes that he could boost the bullpen for the last few weeks of the season. It would likely be a 2026 pro debut, so long as he doesn’t suffer another injury. As for Perales’ future, it could vary. In some projects, he will have the potential to become a middle-of-the-rotation arm if he can find consistent delivery and hone his secondary pitches. At the same time, he will likely become a backend-of-the-rotation option or even a multi-inning reliever with the possibility of being a setup man. Overall, Perales has a lot of talent. Whether he can harness it all will be determined on how well his body can hold up over a full season and possibly a shift to the bullpen. Regardless, it seems like the Red Sox have an interesting pitcher to continue developing. With his recent injury he will have time to rehab and grow stronger and despite being in the system for quite some time now, he's still young as Perales won't turn 22 until April. He has time on his side to develop, but hopefully there won't be too many more setbacks.
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The selection follows a string of successes in which the Red Sox selected Kyle Teel (14th overall) and Kristian Campbell (132nd overall) in 2023, Roman Anthony (79th overall) in 2022, and Marcelo Mayer (4th overall) in 2021. Despite suffering a season-ending ankle injury during the Aggies’ postseason run, Montgomery was projected to be drafted in the Top 10 by MLB.com, Baseball America, The Athletic, ESPN, and Fangraphs. He slid to the Red Sox at 12. What to Like: Montgomery started his college career at Stanford, playing two full seasons before transferring to Texas A&M in his junior year. He discovered his plus-plus power there, belting 27 home runs and driving in 85 runs in 61 games. That power was on display against Georgia in April when Montgomery blasted a mammoth grand slam to dead center. His final stat line in his final season was .322/.454/.733/1.187. Montgomery primarily played right field throughout college. That is projected to be the case in his first taste of professional ball. Once a two-way player who threw 97 MPH from the mound, MLB Pipeline has a 70 grade on Montgomery’s arm. What to Work On: Projected as a switch-hitting power bat, there are concerns about his viability from the right side of the plate, given his platoon split, according to SoxProspects. MLB Pipeline’s scouting profile states that although Montgomery has improved his plate discipline and ability to handle breaking pitches, “he still swings and misses at pitches in the zone a bit too often and will chase non-fastballs.” What's Next? In August, Montgomery was assigned to the FCL to continue his rehab. He is expected to be ready for the start of the 2025 season, where he projects to begin in High-A Greenville. He has yet to take an at-bat in his minor league journey, but his potential is indisputable. He’s current #61 on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list, joining “The Big 4” and 18-year-old Salem infielder Franklin Arias as the Red Sox prospects gracing the list. Along with an impressive scouting report, Montgomery was humble in his post-draft interview in July when asked what he’s learned in his journey to get to this point.
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The fact that you can honestly say Kristian Campbell isn't the team's most talked-about prospect is a credit to the depth and top-end talent of the Red Sox farm system. The impact he made throughout 2024 cannot be understated. Campbell started the year in Greenville, was pushed to Portland, and finally landed in Worcester to change the conversation from ‘The Big Three’ to ‘The Big Four’. Had it not been for a left lat strain that ended his season in mid-September, he may have even gotten a cup of coffee in Boston. In October, Campbell was named the Minor League Hitting Prospect of the Year as well as the Minor League Breakout Player of the Year, not just within the organization, but throughout the minors.That’s how impressive he was this past season. Can he keep his impressive start going through spring training in 2025? Currently, the expectation is that none of The Big Four will break camp with the major-league roster, but should Campbell show up and show out, he is the most likely to be the first name called up to The Show. This season, Campbell slashed .330/.439/.558 across all three levels of the minors. A swing change going into 2024 unlocked a new level of power for him, something that bodes well for his future in Boston. Previously, Campbell had been known to flash some raw power and he could muscle some balls over the fence, but his swing was built for gap-to-gap line-drive power. The ability to go gap to gap is still there, but adding a bit of loft his swing has allowed him to access more of his natural power, and the homers started to fly throughout the minors. Campbell's swing is a big unorthodox and it remains to be seen how he'll perform at the highest level, but it's hard to imagine more promising returns at this point in his young career. Orioles stud Jackson Holliday took home the MiLB Hitting Prospect of the Year last year. Could Campbell be to the Red Sox what Holliday has been to the O’s? The fan base certainly hopes so. On top of his power, Campbell possesses quickness. He stole 24 bases during his rise in the minors. He can beat out infield slow rollers for singles, and pitchers have to be aware of him when he’s on first because he’s a threat to steal second. As the Red Sox proved this past season, base stealing is something they want to focus on. Adding someone like Campbell to a roster already loaded with speed like Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and David Hamilton makes the Sox even more deadly on the basepaths. Campbell isn’t just an offensive player. He is a steady presence at second base, something the Red Sox likely will need heading into 2025. On the season he committed six errors in total between playing multiple positions. He doesn’t seem to lose his head in big situations and can make the routine plays with ease. It’s no secret that second base has been a revolving door for the Red Sox ever since Manny Machado took out Dustin Pedroia on a high slide in 2017. Campbell is homegrown talent with All-Star potential, and he has the chance to finally put fans' minds at ease in the middle of the infield. Kristian Campbell may not be the number one prospect in the system (more on him will come soon enough) but there’s no denying that he was the fastest riser in the Red Sox’s system during 2024. Should that trajectory continue, don’t be surprised to see Campbell suit up early in 2025 for the Boston Red Sox.

