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Roman Anthony is headed to Boston. After what feels like ten forevers, the top prospect in baseball is finally making his major league debut on June 9 against the Rays. This is a joyous occasion for Red Sox fans, but it comes with a bit of intrigue as well. The reason Anthony has been called up is because Wilyer Abreu is headed to the injured list. As of this writing, we aren’t sure why Abreu is being placed on the IL or for how long, but we do know that once he’s cleared to return then there’s going to be another logjam in the outfield for the three starting positions. Should Anthony come up and mash like he’s expected to, some difficult decisions and conversations are going to need to be had. Let’s take a look at a couple of different scenarios that could happen once the outfield is fully healthy again.
Scenario #1: Jarren Duran is traded
I’ve advocated for this more than once here on Talk Sox, but Anthony’s call up presents the perfect opportunity to trade Jarren Duran before his value decreases even more. There have already been reports that the team would entertain moving him and Abreu, and the Padres have long been rumored to be interested in bringing Duran to San Diego. He’s going to be one of the most asked about players on the team as we approach the trade deadline, and with the Red Sox hurtling towards a pure youth movement, he’s the odd man out. Anthony could man both center and right field at Fenway Park, but moving Duran opens up left field for him as well. Ceddanne Rafaela and Abreu have far more experience in the two most demanding outfield positions and both are Gold Glove-caliber outfielders. The same can’t be said for Duran. Yes, he has experience in left field, but his defense is subpar and slowly declining. At this point, he is solely a left fielder. Opening up his spot for Anthony allows for the entire outfield to be able to shift to each position instead of having someone just stuck in left. Trade packages for Duran would likely net the Red Sox both controllable MLB talent and more prospects to add to their farm system. It’s a win all around.
Scenario #2: Wilyer Abreu returns, is promptly traded
After a scorching start to the season, Abreu has cooled off significantly leading up to his injury. He’s slashing .245/.321/.471 with 13 home runs, 32 RBIS, and a .792 OPS. He’s shown a more consistent power stroke at the plate, almost eclipsing his home run total from last season by the start of June. He’s already won a Gold Glove in right field and is likely going to be in the running for the award again this year, even if he’s already committed five errors on the season. The sticking point with Abreu is that he’s still viewed as a platoon right fielder in the system. For better or worse, the coaching staff seems averse to letting left0handed rookies hit against left-handed pitchers. If a lefty is on the mound of the opposition, Abreu is sitting in favor of Rob Refsnyder. This hurts his trade value a decent amount unless another team believes that the Red Sox are being too cautious with Abreu and he can play against lefties. In that case, they may be willing to offer a significant package for him.
Scenario #3: Anthony struggles and is sent back down
Maybe this is the actual least likely scenario now that I’ve typed it out, but there’s a chance that Anthony breaks into the majors and falls flat. There’s a history of top prospects doing just that. Both Mike Trout and Jackson Holliday were sent back down to Triple-A to figure things out when they struggled after their initial call up. From what we’ve seen, there’s little reason to believe Anthony will struggle mightily now that he's on the big league roster, but the chance is still there. Should he be optioned back to Worcester, it’s not an indictment on his talent or a knock against him. It would likely be a quick trip back to the minors before he’s brought back up to make another impact on the big league roster.
I’m sure that people will wonder why I haven’t included a scenario with Ceddanne Rafaela on this list. It’s fairly simple: the team seems to value his defense far more than anything else, and that makes him safe from either being traded or sent down. We lived with Jackie Bradley Jr.’s hot and cold streaks because he was an incredible center fielder. We’ll be doing the same with Rafaela. Yes, he’s had some mental mistakes this season and has room to grow, but Alex Cora has spoken with him about those throwing issues and his at-bats have been more major league quality as of late. He’s likely going to be in Boston no matter what, so it’s time to face the facts that either Duran or Abreu will be the odd man out in the outfield now.
It’s an exciting time in Boston after the shocking news that Roman Anthony is joining the other members of the Big Three in the big leagues. While we’re all awaiting what he can do on this stage, we need to remember that he’s just a kid and he’s been placed on maybe the highest pedestal a prospect can be placed on. His success likely means one of our favorite outfielders is on his way out of Boston during or after the season. While that can and will sting, it will help pave the way for the future of the organization. Roman Anthony is going to be an impactful member of the roster for years to come, and sometimes that means trading fan favorite players to clear the path.
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