Red Sox Week in Review: Return of the Mid Sox

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's interesting to see the numbers for our pitching staff.

.654 OPS Against Pen (4.15 ERA)

.738 OPS Against Starters (3.76)

I know we can never all agree on anything, but to me these were out top 5 SP'ers going into the season (not counting Sandoval)

.567 Crochet 2.04 in 12 GS

.920 Houck 8.04 in  9

.702 Buehler 3.95 in 8

,795 Bello 3.83 in 8

.799 Giolito 5.27 in 5 GS or N/A Crawford

Our depth has not done all that badly, except Newcomb's last start or two:

.603 Fitts 2.70 in 4

.765 Dobbins 4.21 in 7

,836 Newcomb in 5

I realize rbis is a stat many do not value all that highly, myself included, but here are the numbers as we just passed the 1/3 mark to the season and approach 40%:

50 Devers (leads leasgue)

35 Bregman

34 Duran

29 Abreu

21 Story, 20 Rafaela, 17 Narvaez, 16 KC, 11 Ref

TY for acknowledging Kutter Crawford. I think hes going to be a welcomed return. Or maybe Im convincing myself due to subconscious desire to avoid reality that this season is sinking. 

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Alex Bregman has been getting is butt kissed and acting like a prima donna ever since he turned an unassisted triple play in his first t-ball game at age 4. Who did that little snot think he was? 👎

I don't begrudge any player with talent, only the ones that think their talent is far greater than it really is.  Bregman is a REAL 3B, Dever has always been a DH playing 3B and thinking he's a REAL 3B.  That's my disconnect between Devers and Bregman.  It's the same issue I've had with Mayer and Jeter Downs.  So much hype that wasn't substantiated with performance.  I hope Mayer lives up to expectations but so far, he hasn't when I read his performance history knowing the star players Bloom passed on in that draft.  Campbell was a nobody who rocketed to fame like Mookie.  Swihart was the front office darling when Mookie erupted and buried him in his fame.  It's dangerous to over-hype a player, ask Jeter Downs!!

If you walk into a room with two people and one is brilliant and knows it and the other is not, but he thinks he is, I find the brilliant one highly tolerable, but the other one annoys the crap out of me.  That's Jeter Downs and after 4 years of stats that's Mayer to me.  Guys like Rafaela, Campbell and Duran are the under the radar players who actually perform without much respect.  Why no respect?  I have no idea other than the front office doesn't stand in their corner when fans and media pick at minor issues and make mountains out of mole hills but the worst fielder in history playing 3B for 8 seasons is acceptable and they want to see if he's better at 1B when it's clear that a fielding glove is a foreign object to him.  JD got $22 Million a year with better numbers than Devers when he got over $30 Million a year while we watched Mookie's new team win multiple rings.  How messed up is that?

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1. What players are you upset about that Bloom passed on and where you high on them at the time of the draft? 

2. I don't understand your constant criticism of Mayer. Aside from his injury issues, he's performed at every level offensively and defensively. Campbell has only performed offensively at the MiLB level and in a brief spurt to start the MLB season. I think there's hope for Campbell for sure, but his whole game is struggling right now. At least Mayer can count on his glove to keep him in an MLB lineup if his bat is struggling. 

Great questions.

1 - By 2021 Mookie was gone and Bloom was destroying the 2018 roster.  I predicted 5 years to recover from the loss of Mookie, but I thought that could be shorted if the draft contained mostly College players that would graduate to the MLB faster.  

The college guys I liked included Leiter and Rocker from Tennessee, Frelick from Boston College seemed like a good fit, Matt McLain from UCLA, Colton Cowser Sam Houston State and Jordan Wicks Kansas State.  They were all part of the Pipeline Top 20 that were in college.  I didn't expect Leiter or Kumar to make it to the fourth spot, so I was focused on Cowser and Frelick.  This was the second year grabbing a California HS infielder (Yorke in 2020).  It made no sense to push out the recovery from dumping Mookie and Price by going young.  What we didn't know in 2021 was Bloom was going to devastate the 2018 roster not just dump Mookie.

2 - When a player goes fourth in the draft, I expect GREAT play from the ballplayer and GREAT numbers.  Pedestrian results to me are documentation of a reach when drafting.  Here are Mayer's performance numbers:

As a HS Player Mayer's first season in Boston was at age 18 and his advancement was not rapid

2021 ROK where one would expect him to dominate - .275/.377/.440/.817 7 SBs - 10 errors 70 chances

2022 A where again I expected him to dominate - .286/.406/.504/.910 16 SBs - 10 errors 228 chances

2022 Hi-A promoted there after 66 A games - .265/.379/.449/.828 4 SBs - 2 errors 78 chances

2023 After playing 91 games as a 19 yr old in 2022 he only played 78 games as a 20 yr old in 2023

2023 Hi-A (Again) 35 games - .290/.366/.524/.890 5 SBs - 7 errors 99 chances

2023 AA 43 games - .189/.254/.355/609 4 SBs - 3 errors 137 chances

2024 Mayer had an injury limiting his games played in 2023

2024 AA (Again) 77 games NOTE First excellent season .307/.370/.480/.850 13 SBs 

2024 AAA promoted there but didn't play due to injury

Is it wrong to expect more from the fourth pick in the draft as a High School Player?  Maybe.

Jordan Lawler was another highly rated HS infielder in the 2021 draft and went two picks later than Mayer.

At ROK he only played 2 games so lets skip to his 19 year old season where he played at ROK, A, Hi-A and AA

ROK - .368/.500/.526/1.026  A - .351/.447//603/1.051  Hi-A - .288/.385/.477/.862  AA - .212/.299/.353/.652

He mastered Hi-A by age 19 but crushed ROK and A ball unlike Mayer who was simply solid.  

At age 20 Lawler started at AA - .263/.366/.474/.840 33 SBs  AAA - .358/438/.612/1.049 3 SBs in 16 games

He played 14 games in September at the MLB level that year.  2 full seasons before Mayer arrived in the MLB.

It's all about expectations.  What Lawler did was my expectations for Mayer as a HS player but had Bloom chosen a college player like Cowser or Frelick he would have had help for the MLB team sooner.

Cowser - Became a full-time player in 2024 after a September call up in 2023 - 2024 .242/.321/.447/.768 9 SB

He started two years earlier than the HS player which is why I wanted College Draft picks not HS.

Nothing against Mayer except he's never lived up to what I expected from an early first round pick like Lawler did and he clearly took much longer to develop his skills than a college player and Boston has been talent deprived since 2020.

Last point about defense since you brought it up.

Mayer's fielding percentage at SS in the minors is .953 which is miserable.  He has been consistently bad since his .953 average is also his 2024 fielding percentage.  It's not terribly higher than Devers"!!!

Campbell was drafted in 2023 and was Minor League Player of the Year in 2024!!!  He's got a lot more to fall back on than Mayer.  His defense at SS was .971 18 points higher than Mayer.  His defense at 2B was .979 26 points higher than Mayer at SS, and his fielding percentage this season at 2B is .975 while he's perfect at LF and CF so far.  He was a SS until 2022 then in college he got put at 2B when a returning letter was the incumbent SS.  He only played one season at 2B in college, but Boston drafted him thinking Mayer was the SS of the future so that made Campbell the 2B of the future.  With Mayer's injuries Boston had Campbell split time at SS and 2B in 2024 because Mayer's injuries were happening too often.

Mayer has only been in 5 games and 2 are at SS where he's had 2 plays and 1 error.  That's consistent with his history.  He's flashy like a Bichette and just as unreliable with too many errors.  My personal choice is Campbell at SS but if it's Mayer then stop playing Campbell in the outfield and let him concentrate on 2B because he's more consistent than Mayer on a day-to-day basis.  We lived through 8 seasons of Devers I'm sure Mayer won't create as much heartburn on defense as Devers did.  It's too bad Cora doesn't use a merit system for picking his starting line-up.  The team would be a lot better.

42 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I agree with you about Casas and about letting Anthony play 1B for the remainder of this year.  I am pretty sure Breslow has already nixed the Anthony at 1B idea, though.

Devers improvement with 3B defense, or lack thereof, has been a true disappointment.  There were times when he'd make a Gold Glove type play, then he'd turn around a boot a ball hit right to him. 

I don't know what Breslow has in store for the remainder of this season.  I'm not ready to call it quits yet.

If Breslow says no to Anthony at 1B he needs to go out and get a real 1B.  Campbell needs to stay at 2B or SS if Mayer has issues fielding at SS like in the minors.  Whether you believe in fielding percentage or not a .953 fielding percentage is a big red flag.  Using Story as the stand-in for Bregman makes sense if Mayer can hit at this level.  Plus getting Mayer and Campbell comfortable to be like Seager and Semien will help a lot down the road.

4 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

If Breslow says no to Anthony at 1B he needs to go out and get a real 1B. 

The problem with that theory is most "real 1B" won't be available til around the trade deadline and the sox don't look like they have the luxury of waiting that long.

Sox management is looking kind of uncertain and indecisive. I though they were over that , but maybe not. 

thought.

9 hours ago, Kimmi said:

It would be difficult to find a good first baseman at this point in the season.  The Red Sox really messed up by not securing better back-up plans for 1B and 3B during the offseason.  There's a lot of truth in the idea that a  team's success in getting to the playoffs is often impacted more by how well the depth players can fill in when the starters inevitably go down due to injuries than it is by the projected starting players. 

I agree a 1B might be difficult to trade for but i think a combination of Abreu and Yoshida could land a decent 1B in trade.  Since AL East teams probably wouldn't do a deal you have to look to guys like:

Nate Lowe, Josh Bell, Gavin Sheets, Pavin Smith, Justin Turner who are less in value than Abreu so you could ask for a reliever as well to fix two places.

I think Kurtz from Oakland is going to be a special 1B in the future so I would give Oakland Abreu and Casas.  There are more controllable years going to OAK in the deal but I think the apparent overpay would pay off in the long run.  The team 1B we are using now could play until Kurtz comes off the IL.  Then you might have a future infield of Kurtz, Campbell, Mayer and Bregman with an outfield of Duran, Rafaela and Anthony and a DH of Devers.  Boston's future is very bright with that group.