Rafael Devers May Actually Play First Base, Eventually

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Pass on that traffic. 

That's a walk in the park compared to the traffic getting to the marlins' park if the Yanks or the sox are in town!

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

One of my dogs patrols our back yard. Even birds dare not fly to low over our yard.

The do catch an occasional Possum or skunk, but other than snakes, there is not much adventure in our yard.

The most entertaining thing we saw was a big German Shepherd from the house behind us, walking on top of a 5 foot stockade fence. He'd jump up and get to neighbors yards by walking along a 2 x 4 holding the fence together.

 

Mine will go after birds and he especially hates any dog with a pushed in face like a frenchie or pug.

3 hours ago, notin said:

So you think the best defensive SS above A ball in the entire organization should be utilized at the easiest defensive position on the field?

The best defensive shortstop is Story in my opinion and then Campbell.  Obviously you think it's Mayer but his rate of making errors shows he's missing the fundamental skill of being a shortstop.  You can reference some of the contrived estimates made by stat cast but that's all crap because defense is fundamental.  A ball gets hit to you and you catch it and throw out the runner.  If you are bad at the most fundamental part of the action, I can't consider him good let alone the best.  I think we are going to disagree on this one because you sound like a statcast guy. 

I'm old school.   If you can't catch the ball and throw the runner out more than the next guy, then the next guy can't make up for it by being faster or having a better arm.  OUTS are all that matter to me and the performance of getting outs defines your defensive skills.  TEAM, WINNING and EXECUTION are the three fundaments of a good player and a good team.  Statcast refocus people to athleticism but without the three fundamentals the athleticism is simply wasted.  Statcast measures things related to individuals that aren't best for the team, they don't result in winning, and they don't focus on successful execution, they measure athleticism.  There is nothing wrong with honoring a player with a great exit velocity or arm strength, but that player isn't the guy you want to idolize as a player just as an athlete. 

The guy who wins games for your team is the guy kids should be looking up to.  That's why Campbell is a far more valuable player than Mayer and was rewarded for it last year.  Mayer might be what I call a showcase player who tests out great in statcast estimates but Campbell has a history of executing his skills better, more effectively and more often as shown by his actual STATS not the statcast estimates.  I'll take the guy whose performance as documented by Baseball Reference is superior over the guy who has better statcast numbers.  FYI...here is a comparison of Mayer and Campbell:

FIELDING CAMPBELL

Age 21 the year he was drafted -

at 2B in ROK and Hi-A - 43 total chances and 1 error FPCT - .977 

at OF in ROK and Hi-A - 16 total chances and 2 errors FPCT - .875

Age 22 his Minor League Player of the Year season

at SS in AA and AAA - 105 total chances 3 errors FPCT - .971

at 2B in Hi-A, AA and AAA - 150 total chances 3 errors FPCT - .980

at 3B in Hi-A, AA and AAA - 11 total chances 0 errors FPCT - 1.000

at OF in Hi-A, AA and AAA - 53 total chances 0 errors FPCT - 1.000

FIELDING MAYER

at SS Age 18 in ROK - 70 total chances 10 errors FPCT - .857 

at SS Age 19 in A and Hi-A - 306 total chances 12 errors FPCT - .961

at SS Age 20 in Hi-a and AA - 236 total chances 10 errors FPCT - .958 (injured so partial season)

at SS age 21 in AA - 212 total chances 10 errors FPCT - .953 (injured again when promoted to AAA)

at 3B age 21 in AA - 4 total chances 1 error FPCT - .750

at SS age 22 in AAA - 92 total chances 2 errors - .978

at 2B age 22 in AAA - 21 total chances 1 error - .952

at 3B age 22 in AAA - 7 total chances 0 errors - 1.000

NOTE - at SS ages 18 to 21 (through 2024) he had 824 Total Chances with 42 errors - FPCT - .949

Rafeal Devers fielding percentage in the minors was .937

Campbell's fielding percentage in the minors was at 2B was .979, at SS was .971

Really hard to consider Mayer a better SS than Campbell based on what they ACTUALLY did

Mayer's fielding percentage is 12 points higher than Devers who is the worst 3B in history and it's 22 points lower than Campbell's!!   

I don't dislike Mayer, I simply read his performance stats and find him lacking defensive skills no matter how fast he is or how powerful his arm is, he's simply not getting it done at a rate that would help Boston win games.

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It looks like Story's defense has slipped, but that is a close call at SS between Mayer and Story. I happen to think Story would play 2B way better than Mayer, so that is why I chose the way I did.

The scouting reports say Mayer has a good arm: Story no longer does. Story is likely better with the glove and range, so I can see thinking Story > Mayer at SS D. My second choice is SS Story, 2B Mayer and 1B Campbell. It's a close second.

I don't know if Mayer (or Anthony) will dow ell or not. I do know we won't know until we find out. They are ML ready, now, and they will get a look, at some point. At some point, we should and will bite the bullet.

Right now, we have a newly created slot in the infield. We can wait, until the ideal situationa rises for Mayer- like a middle IF injury, but will we feel any more confident then?

Just rip the bandaid off. This team needs an infusion of something. Story and others are slumping, and Rafaela is in the midsts of a 2 season "slump," so let's give it a whirl. Just my opinion. I have no idea if it will work, but these kids are as ready as ever. Mayer is healthy and doing pretty well at AAA. It was always about his health.  Anthony has nothing more to prove at AAA.

When you say it's gonna happen now
Well, when exactly do you mean?
See, I've already waited too long
And all my hope is gone

 

Agreed!!  This team needs both Anthony and Mayer on the MLB roster and some of the retreads removed.  I posted Mayer's fielding stats in the minors in a different response.  They are pretty ugly.  Fans want him to be great but he hasn't lived up to it yet.  Even in 2024 his breakout hitting season, his defense was lacking.  If you put Mayer and Campbell's stats next to each other, Campbell is both the better offensive player and defensive player.  

Story's arm has been a concern since he arrived but it's improved enough to keep him at SS.  If he got moved to 2B then Campbell is the logical replacement SS because his history shows he's a better defender at both SS and 2B than Mayer.  People hate hearing that but the facts are laid out in my other response.  

I also agree with you that Anthony needs to come up.  He has nothing left to prove and if he's as good as his stats suggest, his clock being started today may actually be to Boston's advantage if Campbell wins the ROY and gets a shortened timeframe before free agency.  That way both Campbell and Anthony don't get it back to back years and both lost control time for the Red Sox.  

Mayer is tall, athletic and thinks very highly of himself.  Put him at 1B and see he can handle it.  His chances of being a long term SS hinge on him significantly improving his defense and we went down that road with Devers and he simply couldn't improve.  So maybe Mayer becomes the 1B of the future and we get to incorporate Campbell, Anthony and Mayer into the batting order to go with Bregman, Devers, Story, Duran, Rafaela/Abreu and Narvaez.  By the end of 2025, that could be a very potent hitting team.

Fielding %??

Is this 1972?

Fielding percentage is a horrible metric for determining how good of a fielder a player is.

I mean, Jeter is considered the worst fielding SS of all time and he has a career fielding percentage of .976

Fielding percentage doesn't account at all for range. If someone was a statue in the field and didn't make any errors on balls hit directly at them, they would have a fielding % of 1.000.

That doesn't mean they were a great fielder.

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Agreed.  My standard hypothetical to demonstrate.

You hit 100 identical groundballs to two shortstops.  One gets to 80 but makes all his plays.  The other gets to all 100 but makes 10 errors.

Who’s the better fielder?

The one who makes 10 errors is a better fielder.  

5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Devers to first allows you to lengthen the lineup without hurting your defense by keeping Rafaela in the field. 

with Rafaela in CF and Devers at 1B Abreu can start 2/3 of the games in RF and 1/3 of the games at DH, Duran can play 2/3 of the games in LF and 1/3 of the games at DH.  Romany Anthony can spend 2/3 of his time playing corner outfield and 1/3 of the time playing DH. 

I don't think the Sox will add both Mayer and Anthony at the same time this year.  As exciting as that is, Rookies are still Rookies, I wouldn't expect such a good young team to win the world series.  At some point a talented team that has a veteran presence is going to cook you in the playoffs. 

But the experience may be great, and we are close to a point where you can probably call these guys up and not have to worry about losing the extra year of team control.  

The problem is, even under better circumstances where Raffy and the FO don't have this chasm between them and Raffy would be eager to get back out in the field it would still be unfair to throw him out there without any reps.  If he was going to make the move at some point this season he really should be starting to take infield practice there now.  I also think you can't ask Raffy to move to 1B at this point unless you plan on permanently keeping him there.  

So that's probably not very realistic for some time. 

It will be interesting to see how they eventually fit these guys onto the roster. 

I understand why you want these changes but for me they can't be justified due to the risk increase of losing Devers for a significant time period. 

Here is the line-up you are suggesting:

C - Narvaez

1B - Devers                           (HUGE RISK)

2B - Campbell

SS - Story

3B - Bregman

LF - Duran (2/3) Anthony (1/3)

CF - Rafaela

RF - Abreu (2/3) Anthony (1/3)

DH - Abreu (1/3) Duran (1/3) Anthony (1/3)

Your split in the outfield is excellent out of the box thinking that gives Anthony time at both corners and keeps Abreu in the line-up beyond sitting for left-handed pitchers.  Maybe he'll show he can be a full-time player this year.  I only have ONE issue with this line-up.

Devers can't be effective on defense at any position and the risk of injury ratchets up a lot if he's fielding. 

There is not reason to absorb this risk as a team so the biggest assumption that needs to be made was stated boldly by Cora.  DEVERS IS THE DH FOREVER going forward.

With that assumption I think their best team both defensively and offensively is:

C - Narvaez (weakest position)

1B - Mayer

2B - Campbell

SS - Story

3B - Bregman

LF - Duran

CF - Anthony (1/2) Rafaela (1/2)

RF - Anthony (1/2) Abreu (1/2)

DH - Devers

Rafaela plays vs lefty starters, Abreu plays against righty starters.

By end of season we'll see where Anthony is best suited to play full time, RF or CF.

Devers risk is minimized so he should lead the team in ABs with Bregman right behind him along with Duran if he starts hitting.  If Anthony is ready, I would hit Duran 1, Bregman 2, Devers 3, Campbell 4, Anthony 5, Story 6, Mayer 7, Catcher 8 and Rafaela 9 and when Abreu you plays he hits 7 and Mayer hits 9. 

That is a long line-up if the young guys can hit .250 or higher during their first season.  That's a lot to ask but they are all talented hitters.  I think with Mayer being an injury prone player it is risky to play him at 1B but he's supposed to be very athletic so that should lower his risk a bit.  Devers is not athletic which significantly adds to his risk at 1B.

I think we are pretty close in our thinking and I really like the way you mixed LF, RF and DH.  Great out of the box thinking.

How many 1B go down with serious injuries from playing in the field every season?

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Are you saying the guy with the .900 fielding percentage is better than the guy with the 1.000?

Plus, if you watched closely, a couple of those error calls could have gone either way…

Yes, percentage aside who is getting me the most outs? and I guarantee that's what pitchers think about more than fielding percentage as well. 

5 hours ago, notin said:

What is it in Mayer’s past performance that lead to this conclusion?

The scouting reports on Soxprospects says “Instinctual defender with fluid actions. Looks like he is gliding on the field. Soft hands and solid footwork. Moves well and has plenty of range for shortstop. Confident defender; will take a flashy infield.”

Hardly the same level of criticism…

Mayer's stats in the minors are posted on another comment.  What they show is that Soxprospects is a Red Sox team-controlled source that promotes its key players that they want to promote.  1 - It's not objective it's marketing and 2 - It doesn't reflect actual performance it's an OPINION by some writer about how a player looks.  You can look really great but if your actual stats don't support it, then the observation is rendered meaningless.  For me, I want the guy who actually performs at the level the writer is suggesting.

I have nothing against Mayer except he's never lived up to his hype and all the marketing of him has suggested things that are not contributing to his performance.  If you go to a horse race and one of the horses struts around with a great build, size, attitude and seems the most fit of all of them, his look only matters if he wins the race.  Mayer is that horse.  EVERYTHING looks good but when he plays, he doesn't execute to that level.  So do you believe your eyes or the stats?  I believe the stats represent his skills and his stats are mediocre for a 4th pick in the draft.  Meidroth is starting in Chicago at SS (he was in the Crochet deal as the little-known SS).  His minor league numbers were slightly better than Mayers in a similar time period and yet next to nobody knew who he was because Mayer gets all the limelight.  The White Sox did their homework.  Rather than asking for Teel and Mayer they asked for Teel, Montgomery who was just drafted with high upside and Meidroth who nobody knew.  They came out way ahead in the deal compared to asking for Teel and Mayer.

Stats matter.  They are the factual documentation of performance versus the Statcast estimates that represent athleticism and try to simulate what-if scenarios that are based on the athleticism not actual performance.  That's why the data I presented between Mayer and Campbell shows that while Mayer may look better in a showcase or on paper, Campbell produces far better results and that's what matters when you are trying to win baseball games. 

30 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Hardly any., 

Exactly my point.

Claiming it is "huge risk" when the evidence shows otherwise is just silly.

19 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

 

New CBA could be tumultuous, MLB is the only major sport without a real salary cap and their might be a very big fight over getting one into the next CBA.  A lockout for the 2027 season seems very possible at this point. 

No 'could' about it. They've been gearing up for a fight since about 5 minutes after the last one closed. It's going to be a bloodbath and I'm fairly confident we will lose significant baseball in '27. 

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

No 'could' about it. They've been gearing up for a fight since about 5 minutes after the last one closed. It's going to be a bloodbath and I'm fairly confident we will lose significant baseball in '27. 

agreed, I'm already mentally preparing myself for no baseball in 2027

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If we lose baseball in '27, it's because of the owners. I hope fans know that. 

"But the players make too much money!"

Who gave them those contracts in the first place? The owners! Who inflated the ticket costs? Owners! Who gave us the worst commissioner in sports (a guy who is consistently losing local tv rights across the country, but doesn't adjust his mlb tv blackout policy? Owners! 

I think it's unreasonable to say that at this time, I think everything relative. 

To just pin it all on the owners before we even know what they're agreeing or disagreeing too is premature for me. 

I'm open to blaming both sides. 

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I like the other Hugh better. I feel like he agreed with me more. Where'd he go? 😩

He will be back, he only goes away when he disagrees with you.  But no, I have to see where the cards lay, there's certainly a scenario where I back the owners vs. the players. 

The crazy thing is, compared to other sports as a percentage of actual revenue the players association has a good case for increasing salaries, but in the name of balance and fairness I can see the need for a hard salary cap. 

I think if they were going to do a hard cap, and considering it would be instituted a few years from now it makes sense to set it high, maybe at $300 million but to also have a floor.  Teams have to be spending $150 million a year or something like that.