Assessing The Red Sox's Positional Needs As We Head Toward The Trade Deadline

We have moved past the All-Star break, and the Boston Red Sox are officially postseason contenders with a little more than two months to go in the regular season. It has been a season of highs and lows in Boston, but the team has come together and established itself after trading away a franchise cornerstone in Rafael Devers. Established players secure a few spots in the lineup, while other positions continue to see a rotation or new faces. This piece will only feature offensive position groups; a rotation/bullpen breakdown will follow next week.

Catcher
If we were previewing the season right now, the Catcher position would have numerous question marks. However, that is no longer the case, as Carlos Narvaez has arrived and appears to be a fixture at Fenway for years to come. Although his offense has gradually slowed down in recent weeks, Narvaez still boasts a solid wRC+ of 114 and a 2.7 WAR, which ranks fourth among qualified catchers. His defensive metrics are stellar, and Narvaez brings a winning mentality to the Red Sox lineup. Behind him, Connor Wong continues to struggle; he has a 9 wRC+, which essentially means he is 91% below league average with the bat. The good news is that Wong is a backup and will continue to see minimal action for the remainder of the season. Catcher could become an issue if Narvaez gets hurt, but assuming he is healthy, he will continue to play the majority of innings behind the plate for the Red Sox. The team will likely look at options beyond Connor Wong to fill the backup spot next season. 

First Base
After Triston Casas went down for the season with a left patellar tendon rupture, first base had a lot of question marks for the Red Sox. However, we are now in July, and the team seems confident about their platoon at the position. Romy Gonzalez and Abraham Toro continue to start at first base, and both have been important contributors in the surging Red Sox lineup. Toro has been performing at a league-average level after a strong start to his career in Boston. He now has a 99 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR. If he can maintain a league-average offensive performance, Toro can probably hold his current place on the team. However, if he enters a prolonged slump, Toro may get designated for assignment, especially if the Red Sox consider acquiring a bat at the deadline. He still has decent underlying numbers against right-handed pitching, which is productive for the Red Sox.

Romy Gonzalez is a different story. He continues to be one of the best hitters in the lineup and is showing no signs of slowing down. Gonzalez has a 152 wRC+, which is third among first basemen with 150 or more plate appearances. Although the guys around him on that list have double the amount of at-bats, Gonzalez is not an everyday player. He is a platoon specialist who excels against left-handed pitchers. He is hitting over .400 in those spots, and his 223 wRC+ against left-handed pitching is nothing short of elite. Neither player is good defensively, and neither has played a majority of their career innings at first. Overall, the position group is a makeshift one, offering one of the higher-end potential outcomes with those two players. Don't be surprised if the Red Sox acquire a player who will hit against right-handed pitchers and potentially replace Toro, or simply slide Masataka Yoshida into the position.

Second Base
Kristian Campbell is in Triple-A, and David Hamilton has joined him. That leaves Marcelo Mayer with a sprinkle of Romy Gonzalez manning second base for the Red Sox right now. Although I think Campbell will be back up at some point this season, Mayer will play the majority of innings for now. Mayer has shown plus defensive skills in his time across the infield so far, and that is not likely to change at second base. He has a smooth glove and seems to be a high-IQ player. With just an 85 wRC+, Mayer still holds a positive WAR due to his defensive value. Alex Cora will continue to limit Mayer’s at-bats against lefties, as he has struggled greatly against them. That is when we can expect Gonzalez to man second base. Overall, the position appears to be a revolving door with potential to become a full platoon spot in the order. 

Shortstop
Trevor Story is slowly but surely turning his season around. He has played almost every game, which has helped him work through his extended struggles. Story is hitting .311 with a 141 wRC+ since June 1st, and has been an integral part of the team's turnaround in that same period. Although he has a low floor with a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate, Story has still been productive for the Red Sox. He is second on the team with 15 homers and is tied for first with 16 stolen bases. He leads the team in RBI and strikeouts as well. Defensively, Story has been alright; his metrics don’t jump off the page, but he is still serviceable at shortstop. He is also still a great baserunner with an 81st percentile sprint speed. Overall, Story plays every game and gives it his all. Is his contract all of a sudden worth every penny? No, but Story keeps finding ways to help the team win, and is an important veteran in the clubhouse. Barring injury, Story will continue to be the everyday shortstop, and the Red Sox will not be looking to replace him this season. 

Third Base
A few weeks ago, the Red Sox were piecing together innings at the hot corner. Now that Alex Bregman has returned, the innings are all his. Bregman was the team's best hitter before his injury late in May, and the hope is that he can return to that form down the stretch this season. Although he may not produce at the same clip from earlier in the season, Bregman is an established player who will not enter a prolonged slump. He is still a plus defender and a player who consistently hits the ball hard. One small point of concern is that Bregman is striking out more and walking less than he has at any point in recent years. Though he is walking less, he still has a 97th percentile chase rate, meaning Bregman is just seeing more strikes this season. It will also be interesting to see how his play through the rest of the season affects his next potential contract. The baseline is that Bregman is the unofficial Captain of the team and will be a crucial part of the lineup in the postseason hunt. He brings so much experience and calm to a young team, and winning in the postseason is something he has grown accustomed to. 

Outfield
There are five players on the active roster who share time in the outfield. Beginning in left, Jarren Duran has taken hold of the position and is having a tough time adjusting defensively. Duran has -6 OAA, which is the worst among all Red Sox outfielders. Although he is uber-fast and athletic, Duran seems to struggle positioning himself in left. His hitting has taken a step back since last season as well, but Duran still brings a ton from the leadoff spot. He has a .753 OPS and has been taking a step forward in July. We will continue to hear his name in trade rumors leading up to the deadline, and we will have a much better idea of who will be seeing the most time in left field once Duran is moved or officially stays. 

Center field is another position that is “locked”. Ceddanne Rafaela has been stellar out there and is undoubtedly the best defensive player on the roster. Beyond his great glove, Rafaela is officially breaking out offensively. Since June 1st, he has a 168 wRC+, 11 homers, and 12 doubles. His offensive surge has been as important as it was unexpected. Although he still does not walk a lot, Rafaela has molded himself into a new type of hitter, one with power and the ability to put the bat on the ball. He still strikes out a ton, but that's okay if he continues to hit the ball out of the park. Rafaela has probably been the offensive MVP since the Devers trade, and he will be the defensive one every season he plays in Boston. The only question surrounding Rafaela is if he will play in the infield more after seeing his first action of the season there before the break.

Roman Antony and Wilyer Abreu have shared right field. Anthony will DH if they are both in the lineup, as Abreu is a gold-glove level defender. Anthony has broken out and is one of the hottest hitters on the team. He is slashing .266/.375/.413 and is on the verge of eclipsing one WAR in one month, which is excellent. Anthony will also get time in left when Duran is out of the lineup, and he will move there permanently if Duran is traded.

Meanwhile, Wilyer Abreu continues to be one of the most underrated players in the big leagues. He leads the Red Sox with 18 homers, and he is slugging .491. Typically, a player with big power and average speed is not a great defender, let alone an outfielder. That couldn’t be further from the truth with Abreu, as he has 5 OAA and a cannon of an arm. Abreu and Rafaela combine for one of the best defensive pairings in the outfield that the Red Sox have seen in a long time. 

Overall, it is jumbled in the outfield, which has led to trade rumors for a couple of players. At the same time, the plethora of options allows the Red Sox to be flexible at DH and have excellent depth if a player gets hurt.

Designated Hitter
Although the Red Sox no longer have an exclusive DH like Devers, they have two players, Rob Refsnyder and Yoshida, who will see most of the time there. It is too early to assess Yoshida’s season, but based on his career so far, he will be a guy who is above average with the bat, limits his strikeouts, and puts the ball in play. It is unclear what his exact role will be, but one thing is clear: the Red Sox will enjoy Yoshida’s calming presence and low strikeout rate.

Refsnyder will continue to be a specialist against left-handed pitching. He has a .932 OPS against lefties and, like Gonzalez, is an elite platoon option. Although he is a poor defender who sees limited action in the field, it is unlikely the Red Sox will demote him anytime soon. He offers too much as a platoon option and has experience playing different positions in case he needs to be called on late in a game. Craig Breslow’s vision of flexibility at the DH position is coming to fruition as the Red Sox have elite platoon options and too many players in the outfield, meaning someone productive in the specific matchup will take the spot each game.