Roman Anthony is Starting to Live Up to His Top Prospect Billing

It has been about a month since the Red Sox called up their heralded top prospect Roman Anthony. Since June 27th (as of Tuesday's game against the Rockies), Anthony has been dominant. In his 42 plate appearances in that span, Anthony has hit .359 to go along with an OBP of .405. This is the offensive breakout that Red Sox fans have been awaiting. 

It took a couple of weeks for Anthony to adjust to major league pitching. He had just five hits in his first 55 plate appearances with three extra-base hits, and a 25.5% strikeout rate. The only thing that has greatly changed aside from the output on balls in play since then has been Anthony’s walk rate. In the days and weeks following his debut, Anthony demonstrated his elite plate discipline as he walked 18% of the time, although he was hitting just .114. In his recent stretch, Anthony has walked just 4.8% of the time, but the batting average is at .359.

Now, these are just numbers in relatively small stretches of play, but Anthony through his first month has shown elite skills with the bat. Although the power has not carried into the major league level yet, it is only a matter of time. Among all players with 25 or more batted ball events, Anthony’s average exit velocity of 94.2 mph ranks seventh in MLB behind players such as Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto. He is still hitting the ball on the ground over 59% of the time, so it may take awhile for Anthony to frequently drive the ball out of the park, but for a player who recently turned 21, his recent output has been outstanding. 

(Statcast)

The top numbers are Anthony’s quality of contact breakdowns, while the bottom is the league average since 2015. The clear takeaway is that Anthony is pulling the ball in the air at a very low rate, which explains his lack of homers so far. This is something that can change, but Anthony has also always been a player who hits the ball on the ground more frequently. As we have seen over the past week, that can still lead to great results. Anthony has also demonstrated a plus ability to drive the ball in the air the opposite way, which can be both a positive and a negative at Fenway Park for a lefty. Regardless, if Anthony continues to hit the ball hard, which he will, the results will continue to be solid.

Though the walks have been down in his recent stretch, Anthony has still demonstrated elite poise and discipline at the plate. Through a 162-game season, the ability to see pitches and take quality at-bats is paramount. Anthony has a 19.9% chase rate on balls outside the zone, which is far better than the league average of 28.4%. Overall, he is a guy at the plate who hits the ball incredibly hard, does not swing at pitches outside of the zone, and can drive the ball to all fields. Sounds like a budding star to me. 

However, it does not stop with just his offense. Anthony has played well defensively in the outfield as well. Though he has looked shaky at times, Anthony has posted two outs above average (OAA) in just one month of play. He may not be a future Gold Glover, and he will likely move to left field eventually, but Anthony has demonstrated plus range and fielding ability already. He ranks 24th in baseball in feet vs average on his jump, meaning he has a very solid reaction time to balls hit in the outfield. Once again, he has not been elite defensively like Ceddanne Rafaela or Wilyer Abreu, but he has been above average and will improve with time. And, as long as he plays alongside those two in the outfield, his responsibilities will be minimal.

It has taken a few weeks, but Roman Anthony is looking more like a star player every series. Yes, there will still be struggles, and he may even run into a prolonged slump, but Anthony is just 21 and his peripherals are elite with the results beginning to follow. The Red Sox have plenty of promising players on the roster and in the system, but Anthony is the crown jewel, and will continue his ascent to stardom.