Red Sox Video
On Friday morning, with the Red Sox in New York to face the Yankees, Alex Cora took a trip over to Secaucus, New Jersey, to appear on MLB Network’s morning show, MLB Central. Cora’s comments were illuminating, and you can listen to the whole segment here. In this article, I want to break down two things he said, one that I liked and one that I took issue with.
When Robert Flores asked what fans don’t understand about a manager’s job, Cora let out a long, “Ummm,” and looked at his watch with perfect comedic timing. “I mean, we only have 30 minutes,” he joked. But his serious answer was great and it came without any hesitation whatsoever: “Twenty-six guys,” he said. “You have to manage 26 guys, and they’re all different. From different backgrounds, they have different goals. Yes, the Boston Red Sox want to make it to the playoffs and win the World Series, but each individual has their own goal, right? Thirty homers, .300, 30 saves, all that. And you have to manage that.” He went on to discuss media responsibilities and other aspects of the job, but it was clear that managing all of those different personalities and priorities is top of mind for him, and it was an impressive answer.
His second answer left me a little worried. Cora started by saying that during spring training, he asked Jarren Duran whether he’d be up for playing 162 games this season. “I think it’s very important for the Boston Red Sox that the leadoff guy plays every single day. Yeah, you always talk about it here: you have to post, right? Because when Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer and [Kyle] Teel and [Kristian] Campbell—they come here, and this is what we do.” Cora makes a fair point. The Red Sox now have the best farm system in baseball and the future looks extremely bright. Having a clubhouse full of players who give it their all and lead by example is extremely important. The team should do whatever it takes to give those prospects the best chance of figuring out the right way to conduct themselves at the big-league level. On the other hand, research shows that expecting players to post for 162 games just doesn’t make a ton of sense.
For one thing, both intuition and research tell us that baseball players — like all humans — do better when they get rest. In 2014, Russell Carleton wrote for Baseball Prospectus about how unrested players tend to make worse swing decisions. Just last month, Kiri Oler wrote for FanGraphs about players who have seen their bat speed drop over a period of five or more days with no rest. After they get a day off, those players see their bat speed bounce right back up to their season average. As you may know, plate discipline and bat speed tend to go hand in hand, as players are able to swing harder at hittable pitches. In other words, these two studies are a decade apart, but their conclusions support each other perfectly. This stuff is real and increasingly measurable. Players really do need a day off sometimes. Moreover, getting your regulars some rest also comes with the added benefit of giving your substitutes more playing time, which keeps them more engaged and limits the long layoffs that can wreak havoc on a hitter’s timing and confidence.
Cora continued, drawing a dubious example into his argument. “The Atlanta Braves,” he said. “I mean they play. And we live in an era that we take care of the players so much, right? Bro, you know what? Your best players, they have to be on the field most of the time.” Cora’s not wrong about the Braves. They don’t believe in rest days at all. Last season, they had eight different players who played in at least 138 games (and three who played in at least 159), and they battered the rest of the league and cruised into the playoffs with the best record in baseball.
Then what happened?
You could argue that the Braves, whose record-setting offense pummeled the league during the regular season, looked gassed during their short postseason run. They batted just .186 as the Phillies took them out 3-1 in the NLDS. This season, eight of those nine players who played at least 138 games have either gotten hurt, seen their production crater, or both. Most notably, Ronald Acuña Jr. played in 159 games in his first full season back from an ACL tear, cruising to the NL MVP. He never looked 100% this season and tore his other ACL in May. First baseman has played in more than 450 consecutive games (including every game both this season and last season), and his production has fallen off so dramatically that he’s gone from fourth in the MVP voting to a replacement-level player. Third baseman Austin Riley played in 159 games, finished seventh in the MVP voting, and then saw his production crater this season before a broken hand knocked him out in August. Ozzie Albies played 148 games last season and got MVP votes, but this year he's been below replacement-level and suffered two broken bones. I could go on.
Regression to the mean obviously played some part in this reversal: the Braves’ position players were unusually good and unusually healthy last season. It was an unlikely outcome last year, and it would be much more unlikely to happen two years in a row. Still, it’s hard to draw a clearer line from no rest in one season to injury and underperformance in the next.
The really interesting thing is that, when it comes to himself, Cora seems to understand the power of a break. “I’ll tell you, something that is a lot different between now than in 2018,” he said earlier in the interview. “I would be grinding in the hotel right now. Looking at the computer, looking at the iPad; matchups, whatever. Bro, now? No, no, no. We get up in the morning, we run. We go to Central Park. I just run three miles. I have to disconnect myself from this madness.” That is an extremely healthy outlook, and Cora alluded to the effects that unplugging for an hour a day had on him both mentally and physically. The game is always changing, and managers will always necessarily be more old school than their players (with the notable exception of erstwhile owner/manager/middle schooler Billy Heywood of the Twins). Still, I have to imagine that there are people in the front office who are aware of the salubrious effect of rest. I hope that they’ll prevail on Cora to see that what works for him can work for his players too.







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