A Deep-Dive Into The Red Sox's Offensive Struggles Reveals Obvious Solutions

The best way to describe the 2025 Boston Red Sox construction is that of a Jenga tower. The holes throughout the roster were both obvious and numerous, whether it be young players going through inevitable and drastic ups and downs or veterans struggling to retain their prior form after returning from injuries. Yet, due to the sheer talent of their superstars, the Red Sox were able to stay afloat for the first month and a half. 

Much like a Jenga tower, however, this situation was fragile, and when Alex Bregman’s quad gave out while rounding first base on May 23, so too did the team. If anyone had any doubt that Bregman, who was slashing .299/.385/.553 at the time of the injury while playing Gold Glove defense, was one of the most valuable players in the American League, one only has to look at the Red Sox’s performance during his absence. In the five games since Bregman was officially placed on the injured list, the Red Sox have gone 0-5, lost three more contests by a single run and another in extra innings, and have scored just 10 total runs. 

Just looking around the diamond, it’s hard to see how the Red Sox can pull themselves out of this rut. As pleasant a surprise as Carlos Narvaez has been, he should not be hitting third for a team with postseason aspirations. The fact that he is Bregman’s de facto replacement in the order speaks to the drastic underperformance of the other three right-handed hitters in the Red Sox order. If you want to know how a lineup with a red-hot Jarren Duran (.377/.433/.623 since May 16), a dominant Rafael Devers (AL-best 50 RBI, MLB-best 45 walks), and a vastly improved Wilyer Abreu can be so ineffective, you only have to look at the recent performance of Ceddanne Rafaela, Trevor Story and Kristian Campbell:

Campbell: .114/.167/.152 since April 30

Rafaela: 4-for-36 from May 14 to May 27

Story: .131/.191/.164 since April 21

Of these three players, Rafaela is the clear outlier in that his struggles have been the least drastic and the least costly. As one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball, Rafaela does not need to be an elite offense player to validate his spot in the starting lineup, and to his credit, he has actually taken steps forward offensively this year. While his chase rate is still a comically bad 42.2%, that is a four-point drop from 2024, and it has allowed him to double his walk rate 2.6% to 5.2%. He has also shaved six-and-a-half points from his strikeout rate and made similar improvements in his batted ball metrics: 

Barrel %: Raised from 7.5% (46th percentile) to 13.4% (79th percentile)

Hard Hit Percentage: Raised from 36.9% (31st percentile) to 47.2% (72nd percentile)

Average Exit Velocity: Raised from 86.6 (12th percentile) to 90.6% (62nd percentile)

If the rest of the Red Sox lineup was meeting expectations, we would be celebrating Rafaela’s improvement while still acknowledging that he needs to be more consistent. But, because of the struggles of the rest of the Red Sox lineup, it’s hard to accept giving everyday at-bats to a guy with a .639 OPS. This brings us to Campbell, an early frontrunner for Rookie of the Year who has since been mired in one of the most miserable slumps in recent memory. As someone who began the 2024 season in High-A, nobody should be surprised that Campbell is going through a prolonged adjustment period, but the sheer level of ineffectiveness, especially considering his red-hot start, has been jarring.

In this era of high strikeouts and low batting averages, pulling the ball in the air has become the meta, helping maximize the power output of players like Alex Bregman, Mookie Betts, and Isaac Paredes, none of whom have particularly spectacular exit velocities. Campbell, however, has the opposite problem: His bat speed and top-end exit velocity are well above average, but he just isn’t maximizing his contact. His 7.7% rate of hitting his launch angle sweet spot is 220th out of 256 hitters with at least 60 batted balls events, and his pull percentage (231st) and pulled air percentage (210th) are similarly dismal. On the other hand, only seven hitters hit opposite field ground balls more often, a list that consists mostly of speedsters like Chandler Simpson, Jacob Young, and Steven Kwan. 

All of these numbers are not to say that Campbell is a lost cause who can’t hit major league pitching. His minor-league pedigree speaks for itself, and his walk percentage (11.8%, 79th percentile) and chase rate (23.4%, 76th percentile) still speaks to a guy who is doing a lot of things right at the plate. What needs to happen is not a complete swing overhaul but rather a change of philosophy, but that is, unfortunately, something that is going to take time. 

Headed into this season, we knew that Rafaela was going to be hot and cold at the plate and that Campbell might take time to turn his raw offensive skills into statistical production. The old saying is that progress isn’t linear, and the adjustment between Triple-A and Major Leagues has never been harder. This is why it would be unfair to expect Marcelo Mayer, the consensus top-10 prospect who was called up upon Bregman’s placement on the injured list, to be a lineup savior right away, especially considering he has still had his struggles against same-sided pitching and breaking stuff. 

The pressure on these players to be prime contributors is far higher than it should be, and it really boils down to two reasons. One is the injuries to Triston Casas and Bregman, the Opening Day three and four-hole hitter. Secondly, of course, is the complete ineffectiveness of Trevor Story. As difficult and frustrating as it may be to admit, years of injuries and missed time have not only sapped Story of his elite defense but have turned him into one of the worst everyday hitters in baseball. And while there are positives to point to with Campbell and Rafaela, it’s hard to find a way out for Story, whose Baseball Savant page points to a player who is completely overwhelmed at the plate:

Chase Rate: 36.5% (9th percentile)

Strikeout Rate: 29.8% (7th percentile)

Walk Rate: 4.4% (11th percentile)

Story was never particularly adept at hitting breaking pitches, but he was always able to damage on fastballs. That skill has completely eroded in 2025, as he has just .179 with a single extra-base hit against heaters this season. Couple that with a 35% whiff rate against breaking pitches and a 41% whiff rate against off-speed pitches, and it just feels like there are unlimited ways for opposing pitchers to fearlessly attack him. 

The scariest part of Story’s struggles, however, is that he may not even be the worst hitter on the Red Sox right now. Utility infielder David Hamilton is hitting a measly .184 with a .505 OPS, striking out 22 times against just two walks. Backup catcher Connor Wong is still looking for his first extra-base hit and RBI of the season, going just 8-for-51 and rightfully losing his starting job to Carlos Narvaez. And while Nick Sogard’s .245 batting average isn’t exactly terrible, he has produced just seven extra-base hits (all doubles) in his first 139 big-league plate appearances, good for a .608 OPS.

The fact of the matter is that there are simply not enough big-league caliber hitters on the team right now, especially on the days Narvaez is on the bench. With a 27-31 record, there needs to be a severe sense of urgency around this team, which, in my mind, leads to the following three decisions:

1. Call Up Roman Anthony:

Compared to the rest of the Red Sox fanbase, I was not as demanding for Anthony’s call-up for the first month and a half of the season. With Rafaela showing such notable underlying improvements, Duran and Abreu playing at borderline All-Star levels, and Devers occupying the DH role, there was no clear pathway to everyday playing time. The Red Sox were also among the American League leaders in run scored, and it felt like a bigger priority to keep Rafaela and his glove in center field every day to aid a struggling pitching staff than adjust the defense to squeeze Anthony in. 

Those days have now passed. With Bregman going down and the offense scuffling, you simply cannot justify keeping a bat like Anthony in the minor leagues anymore. As I said earlier, it’s unreasonable to expect any rookie to be a savior of an offense, but Anthony is as good a bet as any minor leaguer in recent memory to handle big-league pitching from day one. The 21-year-old is currently slashing .309/.441/.514 with 44 walks against just 45 strikeouts and posting exit velocities that rival some of the best in the major leagues this season. 

Regardless of whether there is a perfect fit on the big-league team for Anthony right now, it is malpractice to have a prospect so clearly ready for the big leagues wasting time in Triple-A while your big-league team is struggling so mightily to score runs. As much as we can acknowledge Rafaela’s improvement, his bat is not at the point where he needs to be in the lineup every single day. His versatility and experience in the middle infield should be viewed as an asset, something that allows him to still develop as a big-leaguer even if he is not playing center field every day. Though Campbell has been the one who has been moving around the diamond the most this season, Rafaela’s athleticism makes him better equipped to handle different positions. And it’s not like he doesn’t have experience at the big-league level — he spent time at both second and short last season when Story went down in April, and I believe this situation calls for similar amounts of urgency. 

The corresponding move to calling up Anthony will be to send down Hamilton. Hamilton exceeded expectations as a rookie last season, but it’s clear that his lack of playing time has prevented him from getting into any sort or rhythm at the plate. He has been a fine second defensive second baseman, but once Gonzalez gets activated (more on him in a second), the Red Sox will have at least five players on their roster who can capably play second base. 

Hamilton’s only really unique skill to the Red Sox is his top-end speed and ability as a base-stealer, but having a de facto designated pinch runner is a luxury that teams in the Red Sox’s position can afford. 

2. Re-insert Romy Gonzalez as the everyday first baseman

Somewhat overshadowed by the more significant Casas injury, Romy Gonzalez’s quad strain, suffered in a freak collision at first base, halted what was looking like a career-best campaign. Through his first 17 games, Gonzalez was hitting a robust .308 with six doubles and cut his strikeout rate by over 6%. His average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and bat speed were all among the best in baseball, a stark contrast to his replacements, Abraham Toro and Nick Sogard.

While Gonzalez shouldn’t be expected to hit over .300, his ability to hit left-handed pitching would be an immediate and major boost to the lefty-heavy Red Sox. Though he was actually better against right-handers this year, he justified his spot on the roster last season by slashing .302/.362/.517 with all six of his home runs against southpaws. Replacing Bregman is an impossible task, but having Gonzalez and Rob Refsynder (1.079 OPS vs lefties) in the middle of the order will at least give the Red Sox a fighting chance. 

The decision between whether to send Toro or Sogard down is a difficult one, but I think it has to be Sogard. Toro has been hot the last week and currently has a .850 OPS vs righties, and unlike Sogard, he is currently out of minor-league options.

3. Begin to phase out Trevor Story

As much as some fans are rooting for it, Story is (probably) not getting DFA’d anytime soon, at least not until Bregman comes back. The Red Sox are not going to just eat the remaining two-and-a-half years on his $140 million contract, especially considering how short they are on healthy infielders. What they can do, however, is begin to decrease his playing time. With Mayer now in the fold, Gonzalez on the way back, and Rafaela theoretically moving to a utility role, the Red Sox can run out infield combinations that don’t involve Story:

1B Gonzalez

2B Rafaela

3B Toro

SS Mayer

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1B Gonzalez 

2B Campbell 

3B Toro 

SS Mayer

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1B Campbell

2B Rafaela

3B Gonzalez

SS Mayer

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1B Gonzalez

2B Campbell

3B Mayer

SS Rafaela 

Through two months of watching Story, it has become clear how overmatched he is against hard-throwing right-handers with decent breaking balls. Limiting his at-bats to left-handers and soft-tossing righties could help him at least begin to find his swing and prevent the Red Sox from having what feels like an automatic out in the middle of the order. 

Though these three ideas could help the Red Sox begin to dig themselves out of the offensive hole created by the Bregman injury, there are real questions that need to be asked about the offensive coaching staff and coaching philosophy. At a time when the Red Sox are integrating so many young hitters to the big-league level, it is vital that they have a coaching staff capable of helping them integrate them into the big-league level. While players like Rafaela, Abreu and Narvaez have taken varying levels of steps forward this year, the prolonged struggles of Triston Casas before his injury and Campbell this past month raise some concerns about whether the Red Sox are effectively preparing these players for their big-league careers and have the ability to help them make adjustments when the inevitable struggles occur. 

Given that the Red Sox are still somehow sixth in MLB in runs scored, there is no justification for firing hitting coach Pete Fatse right now, but if Campbell and company continue to struggle well into the summer, there may be some difficult discussions that need to be made.