Jarren Duran’s Struggles Are A Bitter Reminder of Red Sox's Poor Roster Construction

[Alex Mayes]

What a forgettable start to the season it’s been for Jarren Duran. He’s mired in that fabled outfield logjam that is getting worse by the day, and when he is getting at-bats, he’s not producing. Alex Cora has moved him around the lineup multiple times to try and get his bat going, shuffling the 29-year-old from designated hitter, to left field, and then to center. In what may be the most damning piece of evidence that Duran is losing his grip on what little playing time he sees, he was pinch hit for by Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the series finale against the Tigers. Instead of letting Duran attempt to get on base, even with a bunt as Kiner-Falefa was instructed to do, Cora would rather turn to someone who currently holds a .179 batting average over 12 games.

That’s not to say Cora's thought process was entirely flawed; as of the series finale against the Yankees, Duran is slashing .194/.266/.306. Still, you’d think that someone Cora trusted to show up in big spots over the last two seasons wouldn’t be sat down for a veteran journeyman who arguably doesn’t have a true role on this team.

Dive further into Duran's start, and things start to look even worse. He’s currently in the 18th percentile for expected batting average, the 20th percentile for xwOBA, and the 25th percentile for xSLG. The only red areas on his Savant page are his barrel rate and bat speed. Those are solid indicators of someone who can do damage from the batter's box, but not when everything else presents a glaring red flag.

What’s maybe most concerning is the fact that Duran is chasing a ton of pitches this season. He’s currently sitting at a 34.0% chase rate, ranking in the 26th percentile, which is an increase from both his 2025 season, 31.1%, and his 2024 season, 28.1%. As with all things Duran, his 2024 mark was the best of his career. 

If you judge him solely on the eye test, you’ll see similar troubling trends. He’s swinging out of his shoes at pitches that never touch the plate while staring at fastballs pumped right down the middle. That’s not someone who’s just struggling, that’s someone who is completely lost in his approach. MassLive.com’s Chris Smite spoke to the Red Sox's skipper about Duran’s struggles and Cora had this to say:

“…Now he’s not even doing that (walking)… Kind of like slow it down, even a bunt or something. Just get it going. We need him to run the bases, do what he does. Hit one in the gap and stretch it out to a triple or one of those ground balls that get through and get to second and get that energy going. We need it as a group, he needs it as a player.”

Those are telling comments from the manager who pulled Duran in a bunt situation later that day. Should Cora have kept Duran in to attempt that bunt scenario, especially when Kiner-Falefa bunted the third strike foul? Possibly, but the fact Cora pulled him shows that the trust he once had in Duran is waning quickly. 

Unless the team finally trades an outfielder so that Duran, or even Masataka Yoshida, can get more at-bats, there’s no clear answer to the current problem. Duran’s struggles are likely due in large part to the fact that he’s sitting on the bench more often than not at this point in the season. As long as the outfield logjam continues to exist though, it’s not going to get any better. Duran’s All-Star 2024 was followed up by a quiet yet solid 2025. His 2026 season, though, paints a picture of a hitter who is falling further from his peak. His at-bats are unspectacular and the process behind them is even worse. As currently constructed, the Red Sox can't afford to give someone struggling this bad more opportunities... which is exactly what Duran needs to break out of this funk.

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[TedYazPapiMookie]

It's amazing how many articles get written trying to bury specific players but not others.  This journalist is notorious for it.  Let's document the people he dislikes and the ones he likes.  Is he paid to write the articles by the marketing group or does his mindset simply align with the front office marketing folks?  You be the judge.

1. Duran has been lambasted by this author on many occasions.  If he has a rough patch, the first author to attach Duran is always this one.  

2 Campbell in 2025 was coming off a 2024 season that proved to be more productive offensively and defensively than both Anthony and Mayer two of his favorites.  The second Campbell fell from his .400 average in mid-April or his .300 average at the end of April he was proclaimed not worthy and author did everything possible to highlight that opinion.  Eventually AAA was the result. 

Should Cora and the coaches have invested more time helping him make adjustments?  Absolutely.  But Campbell wasn't on the front office elite prospects list despite the industry declaring him Minor League Player of the Year in 2024.  He needed to fail to make the chosen ones the true elite prospects.  Campbell after being dropped back to AAA was never promoted again and has pretty much been dismissed from the future of the Red Sox organization.

3 Houck like Duran is a Dombrowski guy and has been dismissed despite being the most promising pitcher in the organization before Early came along.  Every hiccup he had was magnified and every achievement by him was reduced by this writer.  Houck deserved better based on his performances beginning in 2020 when he put up a 0.50 ERA, or his 3.52 in 2021 or even his 2022 performance that ended with a 3.15 ERA.  Not enough was written pointing out all those accomplishments compared to the over-rated Bello.

Here are just a few of the unjustly glorified players by the author.  

1 Marcelo Mayer the 4th pick of the 2021 draft who has been a bust so far based on his numbers compared to other 4th picks in the draft.  His fielding percentage in the minors at SS was a miserable .953 yet he's often called an excellent defender by this writer.  That's simply not true based on the numbers.  His hitting the last two seasons for the Red Sox has been a dismal .228 in 2025 (five points higher than Campbell who spent the second half of 2025 in AAA) and an even worse .203 in 2026.  Has he been called out for underperforming like Campbell was called out in 2025?  Nope.  Mayer should be in AAA learning how to field and hit but the front office and specific writers are encouraged to spin his awful statistics.

2 Wilyer Abreu is a platoon hitter that hit .219 after April last year but never was sent down to AAA either.  This author often spins the truth and suggests he's better than Duran.  The numbers don't indicate it and during his 5 months of sub-par hitting was it ever pointed out?  Nope.  The focus simply got redirected to his defense which is very questionable despite the bogus GG awards based on right field dimensions in Fenway Park.  He has more errors that both Rafaela and Duran in CF yet still gets playing time.  The best defensive set-up based on actual performance is Duran in CF (2 errors in 606 total chances) and Rafaela in RF (because the total area covered is more than CF and he's so much faster than Abreu).

3 Brayan Bello got the big extension despite Houck being the far superior pitcher at the time.  He's another front office and specific writer favorite.  His five-year performance is 4.52 ERA (7.71 in 2026) and a horrendous 1.379 WHIP (1.929!! in 2026).  Despite these bad numbers he always has gotten more accolades than Tanner Houck who in just over 5 seasons has a 3.97 ERA and 1.238 WHIP and no long- term contract.

Trevor Story was the last victim of being highlighted for low performance by this author and of course Duran was today's!!  Let's wait and see when Mayer's .203 will be pointed out, or Anthony's .225 average, or Narvaez's .245, or Contreras' .250, or Oviedo's 9.82 ERA, or Crochet's 7.88 ERA, or Bello's 6.75 ERA, or Weissert's 4.66 ERA that led to our first two losses when Cora picked the wrong reliever two days in a row.

Maybe there should be an article on the consistency of poor play across the team not focusing just on guys the writer doesn't support well.  This truly is a team effort with no one single player to blame.  There is, however, ONE SINGLE MANAGER TO BLAME AND FIRE!!! 

Smart front offices recognize a need for a shake-up and do it.  Others are lethargic and political and avoid doing the obvious.  Breslow needs to get a pair and go to Ownership to let him pick the next manager.  He needs a guy with a background of winning not cheating.  He needs a professional who understands both pitching and fielding unlike our current manager.  He needs to find someone who doesn't play favorites and cares about winning all games in each series.  He needs to find a guy who cares more about winning than being the most popular guy in the dugout.  He needs a guy who doesn't fly by the seat of his pants and base decisions on his gut alone when history shows something opposite. 

Rather than pointing at players you don't like, maybe it's time to point out all the ENORMOUS faults of the manager and suggest he be removed rather than individual players.

 

[mvp 78]

The IKF pinch hit situation was more damning to Cora than to Duran IMO. IKF comes in and foul bunts with two strikes? Brutal! Might as well have Duran up there. 

I agree that Duran needs to be an everyday guy. He's not a guy that does well sitting on the bench. I think even DHing isn't the best fit for him TBH. 

His BB rate is 7.2% which isn't all that off from career norms. I don't know what Cora is talking about there. Is Cora just relying on the eye test and not looking at stats and metrics? Very weird. 

[Alex Mayes]

54 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

It's amazing how many articles get written trying to bury specific players but not others.  This journalist is notorious for it.  Let's document the people he dislikes and the ones he likes.  Is he paid to write the articles by the marketing group or does his mindset simply align with the front office marketing folks?  You be the judge.

1. Duran has been lambasted by this author on many occasions.  If he has a rough patch, the first author to attach Duran is always this one.  

2 Campbell in 2025 was coming off a 2024 season that proved to be more productive offensively and defensively than both Anthony and Mayer two of his favorites.  The second Campbell fell from his .400 average in mid-April or his .300 average at the end of April he was proclaimed not worthy and author did everything possible to highlight that opinion.  Eventually AAA was the result. 

Should Cora and the coaches have invested more time helping him make adjustments?  Absolutely.  But Campbell wasn't on the front office elite prospects list despite the industry declaring him Minor League Player of the Year in 2024.  He needed to fail to make the chosen ones the true elite prospects.  Campbell after being dropped back to AAA was never promoted again and has pretty much been dismissed from the future of the Red Sox organization.

3 Houck like Duran is a Dombrowski guy and has been dismissed despite being the most promising pitcher in the organization before Early came along.  Every hiccup he had was magnified and every achievement by him was reduced by this writer.  Houck deserved better based on his performances beginning in 2020 when he put up a 0.50 ERA, or his 3.52 in 2021 or even his 2022 performance that ended with a 3.15 ERA.  Not enough was written pointing out all those accomplishments compared to the over-rated Bello.

Here are just a few of the unjustly glorified players by the author.  

1 Marcelo Mayer the 4th pick of the 2021 draft who has been a bust so far based on his numbers compared to other 4th picks in the draft.  His fielding percentage in the minors at SS was a miserable .953 yet he's often called an excellent defender by this writer.  That's simply not true based on the numbers.  His hitting the last two seasons for the Red Sox has been a dismal .228 in 2025 (five points higher than Campbell who spent the second half of 2025 in AAA) and an even worse .203 in 2026.  Has he been called out for underperforming like Campbell was called out in 2025?  Nope.  Mayer should be in AAA learning how to field and hit but the front office and specific writers are encouraged to spin his awful statistics.

2 Wilyer Abreu is a platoon hitter that hit .219 after April last year but never was sent down to AAA either.  This author often spins the truth and suggests he's better than Duran.  The numbers don't indicate it and during his 5 months of sub-par hitting was it ever pointed out?  Nope.  The focus simply got redirected to his defense which is very questionable despite the bogus GG awards based on right field dimensions in Fenway Park.  He has more errors that both Rafaela and Duran in CF yet still gets playing time.  The best defensive set-up based on actual performance is Duran in CF (2 errors in 606 total chances) and Rafaela in RF (because the total area covered is more than CF and he's so much faster than Abreu).

3 Brayan Bello got the big extension despite Houck being the far superior pitcher at the time.  He's another front office and specific writer favorite.  His five-year performance is 4.52 ERA (7.71 in 2026) and a horrendous 1.379 WHIP (1.929!! in 2026).  Despite these bad numbers he always has gotten more accolades than Tanner Houck who in just over 5 seasons has a 3.97 ERA and 1.238 WHIP and no long- term contract.

Trevor Story was the last victim of being highlighted for low performance by this author and of course Duran was today's!!  Let's wait and see when Mayer's .203 will be pointed out, or Anthony's .225 average, or Narvaez's .245, or Contreras' .250, or Oviedo's 9.82 ERA, or Crochet's 7.88 ERA, or Bello's 6.75 ERA, or Weissert's 4.66 ERA that led to our first two losses when Cora picked the wrong reliever two days in a row.

Maybe there should be an article on the consistency of poor play across the team not focusing just on guys the writer doesn't support well.  This truly is a team effort with no one single player to blame.  There is, however, ONE SINGLE MANAGER TO BLAME AND FIRE!!! 

Smart front offices recognize a need for a shake-up and do it.  Others are lethargic and political and avoid doing the obvious.  Breslow needs to get a pair and go to Ownership to let him pick the next manager.  He needs a guy with a background of winning not cheating.  He needs a professional who understands both pitching and fielding unlike our current manager.  He needs to find someone who doesn't play favorites and cares about winning all games in each series.  He needs to find a guy who cares more about winning than being the most popular guy in the dugout.  He needs a guy who doesn't fly by the seat of his pants and base decisions on his gut alone when history shows something opposite. 

Rather than pointing at players you don't like, maybe it's time to point out all the ENORMOUS faults of the manager and suggest he be removed rather than individual players.

 

Thanks for clearly not reading the article and making more baseless claims. This piece highlights why the roster construction is holding Duran back, but facts don't matter. 

Find the Houck pieces you mentioned, because you won't. I've been a big proponent of his since he was called up. Did I document his struggles last season? Absolutely. That's part of it. Not everything is sunshine and rainbows in the world of baseball. But those pieces are built on facts, and the facts showed that he was hurt long before he landed on the IL.

I've been a big believer in Bello since he was called up as well, but have already this season documented his struggles. 

But facts don't fit your narrative.

[Alex Mayes]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The IKF pinch hit situation was more damning to Cora than to Duran IMO. IKF comes in and foul bunts with two strikes? Brutal! Might as well have Duran up there. 

I agree that Duran needs to be an everyday guy. He's not a guy that does well sitting on the bench. I think even DHing isn't the best fit for him TBH. 

His BB rate is 7.2% which isn't all that off from career norms. I don't know what Cora is talking about there. Is Cora just relying on the eye test and not looking at stats and metrics? Very weird. 

The best path forward for him right now, and probably the team as a whole, is to move Ceddanne to second, put Duran in center, and send down either Mayer or Durbin while the other plays third. I don't love bringing Rafaela out of the outfield but something has to give quickly.

[mvp 78]

42 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

The best path forward for him right now, and probably the team as a whole, is to move Ceddanne to second, put Duran in center, and send down either Mayer or Durbin while the other plays third. I don't love bringing Rafaela out of the outfield but something has to give quickly.

That's what I've suggested elsewhere on here. I can hold my nose a little less if Rafaela is hitting the way he is while playing 2b then his value doesn't fully crash out. I'd lean towards DFA'ing IKF and just putting Durbin on the bench rather than demoting him. IKF has been pretty horrible and is only on a year contract. 

[Alex Mayes]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

That's what I've suggested elsewhere on here. I can hold my nose a little less if Rafaela is hitting the way he is while playing 2b then his value doesn't fully crash out. I'd lean towards DFA'ing IKF and just putting Durbin on the bench rather than demoting him. IKF has been pretty horrible and is only on a year contract. 

The day IKF is DFA’d can’t come quick enough. Durbin has all the makings of a great super utility player, which this team needs. Just makes the price paid for him less stomachable. 
 

If Ceddy’s bat stays solid, it’s worth the defensive trade off. 

[notin]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The IKF pinch hit situation was more damning to Cora than to Duran IMO. IKF comes in and foul bunts with two strikes? Brutal! Might as well have Duran up there. 

I agree that Duran needs to be an everyday guy. He's not a guy that does well sitting on the bench. I think even DHing isn't the best fit for him TBH. 

His BB rate is 7.2% which isn't all that off from career norms. I don't know what Cora is talking about there. Is Cora just relying on the eye test and not looking at stats and metrics? Very weird. 

Cora clearly agrees since Duran has not DH'd since March.  
 

Maybe playing every day helps Duran,  but his funk started very early this year and he’s been their worst offensive outfielder all season.  At what point do you prioritize putting your best lineup on the field over trying to get certain hitters going?

[notin]

20 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

The day IKF is DFA’d can’t come quick enough. Durbin has all the makings of a great super utility player, which this team needs. Just makes the price paid for him less stomachable. 
 

If Ceddy’s bat stays solid, it’s worth the defensive trade off. 

So the difference between “great super utility player” and “can’t be DFAd fast enough”  lies somewhere between an OPS of .452 and .412….

[notin]

And since this is a Duran thread - he is not hitting RHP.  

It's not "roster construction", or  having to DH (he has 11 PA as a DH, none since March 31) and not even switching to CF on occasion, something he has done a lot the last couple years.  And all this speculation about him needing to play regularly is just that - speculation,

Duran is hitting lefties pretty well (.739OPS), so roster construction doesn't seem to be impacting him there, And 20 of his 88 PA have come vs LHP,   Interestingly, he has only 3 Ks in 20 PA vs LHP and 20 K in 68PA vs RHP. Big issue.   RHP in general has killed Duran this year (.505 OPS)

Duran also has a .238 BABIP vs RHP.  Last year it was .347.  The year before it was .352.  

The reason for the low BABIP?  I'm glad you asked.  Duran has seen his LD% from from the 18-25% range down to 6.9%, and instead he seems to be hitting more ground balls, which are successful for hits about 1/3 of the time as line drives.  He also has a career high pop up thing going on, but that could be nothing at this point in the season.

Barrels are up, but hard hit% and EV are down. It's like he is just above or just below the ball.

So Duran has become a groundball machine that is struggling to hit RHP.   He's been doing better since being dropped down in the 6-7 spots in the order, but I doubt there is anything to this.   He needs to hit more line drives vs RHP.

Maybe keep him away from Fatse?

[Alex Mayes]

1 hour ago, notin said:

So the difference between “great super utility player” and “can’t be DFAd fast enough”  lies somewhere between an OPS of .452 and .412….

It’s more that Durbin has a ceiling that can help this team and IKF is washed. Give me the second year player who can grow into a role instead of the journeyman who has limited upside.

[notin]

55 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

It’s more that Durbin has a ceiling that can help this team and IKF is washed. Give me the second year player who can grow into a role instead of the journeyman who has limited upside.

For the bench role, I prefer the versatility and defense from IKF.  Durbin has only played one position in his MLB career with a couple smatterings at 2b and SS.  Granted he wasn’t going to play much 2nd in Milwaukee without something going wrong.  IKF is the better and more versatile defender, but what he isn’t is a viable platoon option, which is how he is being used.  
 

If Durbin has a higher ceiling, he’s probably better used as a starter, preferably at 2b, with Mayer moving to SS.  The issue for this isn’t IKF; it’s Story.

DFA IKF in order to bench Durbin, and who plays 3b? Monasterio? Romero? Sogard? Cheng? Resurrect the bloated corpse of current free agent DJ LaMahieu?

Ironically the best available 3b at that point might be IKF.  Or possibly journeyman Emmanuel Rivera and his Mexican League .769 OPS.  But all he really brings to the table is the best beard in MLB.  Seriously.  It is so perfect it looks like a CGI beard…