Article: Why all the Best MLB Teams are Excellent at Stealing and Preventing Runs on the Basepaths

[Maddie Landis]

Perhaps more than ever, speed is an essential component of contemporary baseball. This wasn’t the case 15 years ago. From 2010-19, league-wide stolen base totals steadily dropped. With the shortened pandemic season, they hit an all-time low, but in the following years, they started to make a comeback.

The pitch clock made its MLB debut in the 2023 season. It shortened overall game lengths and quickened the pace of play, limiting pitchers to 15 seconds in between pitches with the bases empty and 18 seconds with runners on base. Baserunners are more likely to steal with less time in between pitches. Moreover, wider bases were implemented in 2023. Subsequently, stolen base totals hit a 15-year high with 3,503 in 2023 and 3,617 in 2024.

Back in 2017, Statcast started publishing the sprint speed metric, which quantifies the foot speed of baserunners. The Sprint Speed Leaderboard provides the following description:

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“Sprint Speed is Statcast’s foot speed metric, defined as 'feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window' on individual plays. For a player’s seasonal average, the following two types of plays currently qualify for inclusion in Sprint Speed. The best of these runs, approximately two-thirds, are averaged for a player’s seasonal average.”

Sprint speed by itself is a fun metric. However, it doesn’t measure how, if at all, a player’s speed contributes to a team’s offense. A player with a high sprint speed can reach base quickly and safely, but whether or not they capitalize on the opportunity to take an extra one from a fielder, should the opportunity arise, isn’t factored into the metric.

Recently, I stumbled upon Statcast’s Extra Bases Taken Run Value Leaderboard. The leaderboard tracks the production of baserunners taking (not to be confused with stealing) extra bases from fielders and outfielders preventing extra bases from runners. For Red Sox fans, it’s no surprise that speedster Jarren Duran took 11 extra runs on the base paths from fielders between 2024-25, the second most in the league. When he gets on base, he wreaks havoc, and the team’s offense benefits. 

I created the following scatter plot, highlighting team fielding runs vs team runner runs. Teams fall under one of the four quadrants: 

• Upper right-hand quadrant: shows which teams are efficient with fielding and advancing on the basepaths.
• Lower right-hand quadrant: shows which teams are more efficient advancing on the basepaths and less efficient with fielding.
• Upper left-hand quadrant: shows which teams are more efficient with fielding and less efficient with advancing on the basepaths.
• Lower left-hand quadrant: shows which teams are inefficient with fielding and advancing on basepaths.

The Red Sox are situated in the most optimal group on the upper right-hand corner, meaning both their outfielders prevent baserunners from taking additional bases, and their baserunners take extra bases when possible. They’ve recorded five fielder runs (3rd) and five runner runs (5th). Again, this shouldn’t be a surprise. Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela are two of the best outfield throwers in the league. Abreu ranks 11th (94.3 mph average throw) and Rafaela ranks 15th (93.4 mph average throw) on the arm strength leaderboard. Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar learned the hard way when Abreu gunned him down at third. 

By sprint speed numbers, the Red Sox aren’t the fastest overall; they sit 9th league-wide (27.6 ft/s). Yet, they’re aggressive and efficient on the basepaths. Red Sox third base coach Kyle Hudson has done an excellent job capitalizing on opportunities to take extra bases. Their success reflects strong preparation through advance scouting. For example, in early April, the Red Sox routed the Cardinals 18-7. The Cardinals rank last in the league with -9 fielding runs. Throughout the game, Red Sox runners kept advancing, knowing the Cardinals outfielders wouldn’t throw them out. 

What does this all mean from a 10,000-feet point of view? For starters, it’s something to review when formulating game strategy. The teams in the upper right-hand quadrant have recorded a net positive fielder runs and runner runs. The Guardians have recorded 14 fielder runs, by far the most in baseball this season. Their total is eight above the Cubs, who come in second with six. These teams' outfielders will likely prevent runners from advancing, and you don't have to look far on the Guardians (Stephen Kwan and Nolan Jones), Cubs (Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker), or the Rangers (Wyatt Langford and Adolis García) depth charts to see why. When facing these teams, advance scouts conducting their due diligence would advise against getting greedy on the base paths.

Moving clockwise, the Brewers stand out in the lower right-hand quadrant; they rank 1st in runner runs with a five-run lead over the Tigers. Coincidentally, the Brewers flaunt the highest run differential in baseball. For fielder runs, they’re at -2. Superstar Jackson Chourio has been on the IL, so the Brewers' outfield defense is lagging. Looking at their other outfielders' Savant pages, Brandon Lockridge's arm strength grades above average in the 71st percentile. Jake Bauers’ defense hasn’t been the best over the past two seasons, and Isaac Collins’ range is elite (92nd percentile in OAA), but his arm strength (58th percentile) and arm value (21st percentile) are weak points. More likely than not, the Brewers, Tigers, and Diamondbacks will attempt to take the extra base, but their outfielders won’t be as successful in preventing opponents from advancing on the basepaths.

The Mariners, White Sox, and Cardinals are outliers in the lower left-hand quadrant. Seeing the Mariners, who currently hold the third AL Wild Card spot, situated in the worst quadrant on the chart was shocking. Julio Rodríguez is an elite defender with a cannon of an arm, and he’s an efficient baserunner. With that being said, one elite defender can’t boost the entire outfield. Since he was on the Rays, Randy Arozarena has had a noodle of an arm. If an average to above-average runner is on third with one or two outs and the ball is hit to Arozarena in left field, savvy teams would advance the runner because they’re aware that he probably won’t throw the runner out at home. The Mariners' coaching staff has also faced significant turnover over the past year. Last August, they fired their manager, Scott Servais. Kristopher Negrón, the Mariners' third base coach, was appointed in November 2024. Since he’s a relatively new coach, that could explain their poor output in terms of runner runs. 

Finishing in the upper left-hand quadrant, you find teams that have solid outfielders, but their baserunners won’t advance on the basepaths. These teams are clustered together distinctly, so there aren’t any glaring anomalies. I’ll point out that the Yankees are notoriously slow and have posted -3 runner runs. My cat is faster than at least half the Yankees lineup. The Blue Jays are another slow AL East team. Their outfield can prevent runners from advancing, but they’re not likely to advance on the basepaths.

How do these metrics compare to run differentials? MLB provides the following description for run differential: “A team's run differential is determined by subtracting the total number of runs (both earned and unearned) it has allowed from the number of runs it has scored.”

The Brewers, Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers have posted the highest run differentials this season. All of these teams, besides the Yankees, are situated in the upper right-hand quadrant of the chart. Simply put, the Yankees are outperforming their run differential. They’re a one-dimensional team. Most of their runs are driven home via home runs, not through small ball or contact hitting. When they hit home runs, they succeed, but otherwise they fall flat. Effective teams win games in various ways, not just through slugfests.

Conversely, the Rockies, Nationals, and Angels have posted the lowest run differentials this season. These teams aren’t regarded for their pitching staffs, which have had difficult keeping opposing offenses off the board in 2025. To their credit, the Rockies and Orioles are plus fielding teams, but aren’t as efficient on the basepaths. For teams with negative runner runs, it’d be worth looking at the efficiency of their third base coaches. A team doesn’t need the fastest players to take an extra base when the opportunity arises. For example, the Phillies rank first (28.1 ft/s) in overall sprint speed, but have only recorded three runner runs this year. Despite their speed, they’re not as aggressive on the basepaths. Teams simply need to recognize the arm strength of the opposing outfielders when deciding whether to advance a runner. While the Brewers aren’t the flashiest team on paper, they hold the best record in baseball because of sound fundamentals and a strong coaching staff. 

Advanced scouting in baseball is not to be overlooked. With the expanded playoff format, every game matters for contending teams, and capitalizing on opportunities to add runs on the basepaths and prevent runs from scoring is crucial. Small advantages can tip the scales in a team’s favor. As we near the end of the regular season, teams that maximize every facet of the game will break apart from the rest of the crowd and have the best chance of making a deep run in October.

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