Article: Dustin May 2.0: Why the Cutter Could Define His Red Sox Career

[Jack Lindsay]

Dustin May shoved on Tuesday, locking down his first six-inning shutout since 2023. You could see his confidence on screen; he was full of emotion after each of his eight strikeouts. Sure, it helps when the offense is thrashing the opposing pitcher, but for the majority of his start, it was a two-run ballgame.

May talked about the start postgame:

With Garrett Crochet passing his career-high in innings and Lucas Giolito's velocity creeping down, a confident Dustin May is going to be crucial for the final postseason push.

So, what changed from his tenure with the Dodgers?

The Pitch at the Heart of Boston’s Plan

Full credit to pitching guru Lance Brozdowski for bringing this trend to my attention. He had a video on cutter usage, which you can check out here. In that video, he points out how the Red Sox are top of the league in cutter Stuff+. Specifically, they are tied with the Marlins at 105. They also lead the league in cutter Pitching+ (110), which combines the effectiveness of not only the movement, but also the location compared to league average, that being 100.

When you look at Dustin May and what the Red Sox are trying to do with him, it’s no surprise that they pursued Garrett Crochet, who had the best cutter in baseball by a wide margin, and added a cutter to Brayan Bello’s repertoire. If you dig into the farm system, the three highest-ranked pitching prospects are, according to SoxProspects.com, Payton Tolle, Luis Perales, and Kyson Witherspoon. Witherspoon, drafted this summer, provides a plus cutter. Tolle and Perales are both listed as average to fringe-average offerings for their cutters. The fact that the Red Sox's top three pitching prospects throw this pitch is no coincidence.

On top of that, Kyle Harrison, acquired in the Rafael Devers trade, began to develop a cutter as soon as he joined the Red Sox. The effectiveness of the pitch for Harrison is unknown, as it hasn’t shown up on Baseball Savant or FanGraphs, but SoxProspects describes it as such: “Newer pitch that he started to develop when he joined the Red Sox. Short, horizontal break. Lacks depth. Has already shown some viability as a pitch to generate weak contact early in counts. Potential average offering.”

Anticipate this being a reality for the Sox and the league as a whole, as front offices search for ways to maximize the talents of pitchers who throw average fastballs.

The Prospect Who Couldn’t Stay Healthy

When Dustin May was a Dodger, he was known league-wide as a bit of a wild card, eclipsing 50 innings just twice since 2019, including this season, when he has racked up 113 2/3 IP and counting. He topped out at No. 2 on the Dodgers' top prospect rankings and had three 60-grade pitches according to FanGraphs, including his cutter. In 2020, he was averaging 99 mph on his fastball, and in 2021, he was third in MLB in Stuff+ at 133. Unfortunately, that season was cut short by a torn UCL, which required Tommy John surgery. The same injury afflicted him in 2023, and he has continued to work back this season. It is clear he is not the same pitcher as he once was, as he’s averaging 95.6 mph on the fastball, and his stuff numbers are at a career low.

In terms of his pitch mix, May was primarily a sinkerballer in 2021, using it 33.5% of the time, followed by his four-seamer (26.9%), and his curveball as his third offering (20.3%). This year, May was coming off his second TJ surgery and was also in the midst of his worst season to date. The Red Sox pitching lab had (and still has) a lot of work to do. But, the prospect of a high-stuff, high velo guy like Dustin May was enough to excite Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey.

Reinvention in Red

With the Sox, May has dropped the curveball entirely and significantly increased his cutter usage from 7% up to 24.6%. May is largely effective with this pitch, throwing it for a strike 64% of the time, and hitters are slugging .111 against it. His sweeper became his primary breaking ball, getting him a 17.2% Swing Strike Rate (SwStr%).

While Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey have not explicitly stated what their plans are for May during their time in Boston, a quick peek at the numbers tells you all you need to know. The inverted spike in his pitch mix graph tells us that the sinker is not a pitch they intend to expand on, but May’s cutter, a pitch that the Dodgers abandoned entirely at certain points of the season, is a pitch the Red Sox believe is “a weapon”.

Moving forward into the postseason and the offseason, as the Red Sox seek to build out their rotation, don't be surprised if this cutter-heavy approach is at the center of their pursuits.

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[TedYazPapiMookie]

A reinvention of a player after just two starts?   Hyperbole is the word that jumps out to me.

A player develops a new pitch and the first two teams that see it don't adjust well to the unscouted pitch, and he has two good games.  That's what actually happened.  If he's dominant for another dozen games then we can start talking about reinvention but it's likely teams will add the pitching to the scouting reports and the success with it will significantly drop.  BOS needs to be careful with it's evaluation of May because if they use a small sample to try to extend him before the season ends, the data won't be very conclusive so the guess as to his future value could match a very large spectrum of numbers.  He might be a steal, and he might be an albatross or anything in between. 

His KC game wasn't great, but his HOU game was.  He got rocked for LA in July so the success of the new pitch might prevent him from being rocked or it might simply delay him being rocked again until the opponents get the new pitch scouted.  It's very hard to say.  Extending him to keep him from being a FA at the end of the year all depends on his starts in August and September.  Let's hope he doesn't drop off as teams scout his new pitch.  He's always had good stuff, but his surgery was a huge setback.  

With Crochet and Bello locked in for 2026 adding both May and Giolito would significantly lower the off season needs.

[Jack Lindsay]

Appreciate the feedback! When I say reinvention, I agree that he hasn't moved from mid-tier starter to ace after two starts. What I mean is that the Red Sox completely revamped his approach, and he was able to carve through a legitimate contender. 

Regarding an extension, I feel that it may be necessary simply because we gave up James Tibbs III for the player we had acquired in the Devers trade. Barring an absolute catastrophe, I expect May to be more than a half-season rental. A one-to-two-year deal feels realistic, but you're 100% correct. The jury is very much still out on the pitcher May can be.

58 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

A reinvention of a player after just two starts?   Hyperbole is the word that jumps out to me.

A player develops a new pitch and the first two teams that see it don't adjust well to the unscouted pitch, and he has two good games.  That's what actually happened.  If he's dominant for another dozen games then we can start talking about reinvention but it's likely teams will add the pitching to the scouting reports and the success with it will significantly drop.  BOS needs to be careful with it's evaluation of May because if they use a small sample to try to extend him before the season ends, the data won't be very conclusive so the guess as to his future value could match a very large spectrum of numbers.  He might be a steal, and he might be an albatross or anything in between. 

His KC game wasn't great, but his HOU game was.  He got rocked for LA in July so the success of the new pitch might prevent him from being rocked or it might simply delay him being rocked again until the opponents get the new pitch scouted.  It's very hard to say.  Extending him to keep him from being a FA at the end of the year all depends on his starts in August and September.  Let's hope he doesn't drop off as teams scout his new pitch.  He's always had good stuff, but his surgery was a huge setback.  

With Crochet and Bello locked in for 2026 adding both May and Giolito would significantly lower the off season needs.