Could This Pitcher be the Next Breakout Prospect in the Red Sox Pitching Lab?

[Nick John]

The Boston Red Sox have taken a new approach to their farm system under Craig Breslow. Whereas Chaim Bloom overhauled the hitting infrastructure and developed position players first and foremost, Breslow has instead focused on drafting and developing pitchers, as shown through his first two drafts in charge.

Because of this change in philosophy, the team has managed to fill their system with talented pitchers, like Payton Tolle and Brandon Clarke. Now, it seems that there may be another pitcher ready to join their ranks.

Drafted in the sixth round of the 2024 MLB Draft out of Kennesaw State University, Blake Aita has been an impressive find by Breslow. Aita, a 22-year-old right-handed pitcher, stands 6’4”, continuing the trend set by Breslow on drafting tall pitchers who have yet to fill out their frames. Case in point: His fastball can now reach 95 mph after sitting 89-92 mph in college.

Aita opened his professional career with Low-A Salem where he made 10 appearances, nine starts, and went 2-3 with a 4.24 ERA in 51 innings pitched. In that time, he showcased his great control, walking only nine batters and striking out 45. Since then, the team wasted little time in promoting him to Greenville, as he got the call on June 9 to head to High-A

Upon joining Greenville, Aita has been even better in eight starts for the Drive. In that span, he’s gone 3-3 with a 3.06 ERA in 47 innings pitched, walking only 13 batters and striking out 41. Between the two levels, he’s pitched to a 3.67 ERA across 98 innings. At the time of this writing, those 98 frames pitched lead all Red Sox pitchers in the minor leagues.

From a pitching standpoint, Aita starts from the first base side of the rubber and throws from a high three-quarters arm slot where his arm swings behind him before coming to the plate, and due to the angle, can allow him to hide the ball well. Pitch-wise, he has four main offerings, those being his fastball, sweeper, cutter, and changeup.

The fastball, as mentioned before, now reaches 95 mph while maintaining high spin rates and solid command and control, giving him an above-average pitch to build his foundation on. His best pitch, however, may be his sweeper that averages 80-82 mph with a long, horizontal break thanks in part to a high spin rate. So far, he’s shown a good feel for the pitch, and it’s demonstrated strong bat-missing ability that has allowed him to use it against both right-handed and left-handed batters.

The cutter, meanwhile, averages around 86-89 mph, while his changeup is 85-89 mph and is mainly used against left-handed hitters thanks to its "diving" characteristics.

On the season, Aita’s success has primarily come from his ability to limit opponents from being on base, as he has a walk rate of just 5.6% and batters are hitting just .209, leading to a WHIP of 1.00 across the two levels (opponents are hitting just .176 against him in Greenville). And while he isn't overly reliant on strikeouts, he still gets them when it matters, posting a solid 22.1% K-rate on the year.

Aita uses his pitch mix to his advantage, getting batters to swing at nearly half of all his pitches thrown (currently 49.8% of his thrown pitches are swung at), while 75.9% of those swings end up connecting with the pitch. Should the batter make contact, Aita has managed to limit damage thanks in part to a 43.8% ground ball rate (though it has dropped to 34.5% with Greenville). There’s still some work to go, as his fly ball rate has jumped to 46% in High-A, but he’s limiting it from leading to danger as he’s only allowed nine home runs across his 98 innings.

There is a chance for slight regression with Aita—his FIP sits at 4.02 in Greenville, which is league average—who is currently rocking an absurd .202 BABIP at his current level. That's sure to regress to the mean at some point. However, it can’t go without saying how he buckles down when runners do reach against him, as he’s stranded 63.5% of runners on base (something that has increased to 69.3% with Greenville).

Aita is an interesting prospect, as he limits walks and baserunners while also giving up a small number of home runs. Having already shown an ability to increase his velocity as well, he could develop an impressive arsenal thanks to his high-spin breaking pitches. Should Aita continue his masterful work this season and into next year, he should be able to push his name into the conversation around the top Red Sox's pitching prospects

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[mvp 78]

I paid attention to Aita at the start of the season because of his high spin rate. He has some decent secondaries, but I think his overall ceiling is limited depending on that fastball. If he can keep it closer to 95 than 92, he has a chance to keep pitching well as he moves up. He'll be in AA next season with an outside chance for AAA. 

[Larry Cook]

Dalton Rogers took a step forward this year!  Could be a nice bullpen arm 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Dalton Rogers took a step forward this year!  Could be a nice bullpen arm 

Rule 5 eligible, but probably not protected or picked.