Jump to content
Talk Sox
  • Create Account

Recommended Posts

Posted

As the hot stove starts heating up over the next couple of weeks, you’ll hear some names on the rumor mill. Here’s a quick overview of starting pitchers connected to the Red Sox ahead of the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline. 

Zac Gallen, 29, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks ($13.5 million owed in 2025, UFA in 2026)

Gallen is having a rough year. From March to the end of June, he posted a 5.75 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, 9.9% batted ball rate, and 5.17 FIP. This month, Gallen’s ERA has dropped to 3.50, and his strikeout rate has increased to a whooping 30.1%.

Gallen’s fastball is his primary pitch. The rest of his arsenal consists of swing and miss stuff like his curveball. Since 2022, his fastball velocity has steadily dropped from 94.1 mph to 93.3 mph. Yes, fastball velocity is expected to drop with age, but the fact that Gallen’s primary pitch is currently sitting at 93.3 mph when he’s only 29 is concerning. Another issue is his fastball command. In previous seasons, he’d attack the perimeter of the strike zone to set up his curveball. Now, his control is off, and he can’t locate the pitch at the bottom of the zone.

AD_4nXe1OchZgRIqYiDO4tRNM-7OtkXm_HdGaR5NiDzkrccPmCsBIQ3cn-i2-o2xhYpWJaT4BU3aYcMU_9xiJmBlqmFrjqDDx0nMnLADzfDr461C5-ntpD5keQ-u-TRw2-C5izWeT0Jd?key=meafmrFy_JF2RgrGHCyX1w

AD_4nXfIW0X_uHtPU5WmGgSBhVSPEMREamWgcrIl6QFJc8HnQty7WHAkphkn-7SR2FXfbxiPMG1GN_S1fg5e6itejkZ9H3Bh9B0sQyAvuUBKtsUtrZ5WSMy36aGBny_W6Uwt7fAm6zXdmA?key=meafmrFy_JF2RgrGHCyX1w

Gallen’s curveball also isn’t as effective as it once was. In 2024, he limited batters to a .192 wOBA and 27 wRC+ with the pitch; this year, those have jumped to .333 and 125, respectively. He’s throwing the pitch at the bottom of the zone, similar to previous seasons, but hitters are punishing him for it this year.

Despite his subpar performance this year, Gallen is drawing interest from the Yankees, Mets, and Blue Jays, among others. His pedigree indicates he could turn things around; he finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting in 2022 and third in 2023. Between 2022 and 2025, he ranks 12th on the starting pitchers WAR leaderboard. He could be a great candidate for Andrew Bailey's pitching lab to “fix” him. Gallen is also a Boras client, so it’s unlikely he’ll immediately sign an extension with the team that trades for him.

Merrill Kelly, 36, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks ($7.0 million in 2025, UFA in 2026)

Every time I write about Merrill Kelly, my fingers betray me and type "Marill", the adorable water-type Pokémon. If Merrill ever throws a curveball that splashes, I’m blaming Nintendo. Merrill Kelly has stepped up to help the ailing Diamondbacks rotation. He’s not a traditional number two starter, but he is a consistent pitcher who controls his pitches well (career 104 Location+).

Kelly played a significant role during the Diamondbacks’ 2023 postseason run, and his established postseason success as a pitcher should draw interest from teams. His postseason ERA is 2.25 with a 30.8% strikeout rate across 24.0 innings pitched. He’s 36 years old, so age is obviously a concern with him. Kelly is a late bloomer who pitched for the SK Wyverns in the KBO between 2015 and 2018 before joining the Diamondbacks in 2019. 

Seth Lugo, 36, RHP, Kansas City Royals ($15.0 million in 2025, $15.0 million player option in 2026)

Last October, I wrote about Seth Lugo’s breakout as a former reliever turned starter. Lugo’s extensive arsenal doesn’t contain super overwhelming stuff, but his pitch mix lets him deceive batters. Lugo’s underlying metrics point to regression. His LOB% spiked to 88% (MLB average: 73%), and his 2.67 ERA is outperforming his 4.28 FIP and 4.06 xFIP. 

AD_4nXcrBgBHgZDgiff6ok89TCuLxtDux2iU2JXr_bkiYQy9tTmuIIj5cDe5tluMxveFEQFuCceec6D7iMC_Nuoj_VLDC8WiE8M5tXMz7Nyv5n0cFw0-uPHWot8VA3Y-U1Kph64n8hI5?key=meafmrFy_JF2RgrGHCyX1w

Whether the Royals choose to sell at the deadline remains uncertain. The Royals (47-50) are 12 games back in the AL Central. Their farm system ranks in the bottom third of the league (Baseball America listed them at 27 in February), so they could bolster their system by moving Lugo, who’s on an expiring contract, at the deadline. 

Charlie Morton, 41, RHP, Baltimore Orioles ($15 million in 2025, UFA in 2026)

Veteran pitcher Charlie Morton initially had a rough start with the Orioles. He posted a 9.45 ERA, 18.8% strikeout rate, and 15.2% batted ball rate through the end of April. In May, the Orioles demoted Morton to the bullpen, where he settled in (2.10 ERA, 24.3% K%, and 11.4% BB%). Since June 1st, his ERA is 2.72 with a 26.5% strikeout rate and 7.4% batted ball rate. At age 40, Morton’s fastball is averaging 94.1 mph. His curveball remains an elite pitch (3150 RPM) with a 33.7% whiff rate.

The two-time World Series champion brings valuable intangibles to any playoff-bound pitching staff, thanks to his 18-year MLB career and extensive postseason experience. Over 80 innings in the playoffs, he’s posted a 3.60 ERA, 3.67 FIP, a 26.8% strikeout rate, and a 9.6% barreled ball rate.

While the Orioles haven’t officially declared themselves sellers, the writing is on the wall—Fangraphs currently pegs their playoff odds at just 2.8%. Morton still has time to boost his trade value and move past his rough start before the deadline arrives.

Andrew Heaney, 34, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates ($5.25 million in 2025, UFA in 2026)

Looking at Andrew Heaney’s Savant page, his stats don’t suggest he’ll move the needle for any playoff-bound team. Heaney got off to the season on a strong footing, recording a 2.61 ERA with 29 strikeouts in April versus the Yankees, Reds, Nationals, Angels, and Cubs. Since May, Heaney’s fallen off a cliff. His fastball is down 2.5 mph, averaging around 90.0 mph. 

Month

ERA

K%

BB%

BA

OBP

SLG

May

4.74

11.3

13.0

.276

.374

.480

June

5.57

20.6

5.3

.259

.292

.492

July

12.60

7.4

7.4

.375

.444

.917

Heaney is a reclamation project, but if a team believes it can help him return to form, he could be a valuable addition. He won a ring with the Rangers in 2023 and brings postseason experience. Among the pitchers listed in this article, he may have the lowest floor, but pitching depth is crucial in the postseason. While he doesn't have the flashiest stuff, Heaney can solidify a rotation as a back-end innings eater.


Which of these pitchers do you want the Red Sox to go after at the trade deadline? Let us know in the comments!


View full article

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
The Talk Sox Caretaker Fund
The Talk Sox Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Red Sox community on the internet.

×
×
  • Create New...