Article: The Trevor Story Paradox: Hard-Hit, Hardly Squared

[Dan Fraser]

Trevor Story is hitting the ball as hard as ever. He's also never squaring it up. What gives?

In the days leading up to this season, few would have guessed Trevor Story would have such a great start. 

Through 25 games and 102 plate appearances, he’s slashed .309/.343/.485 with five home runs and 15 RBIs, instantly becoming one of Boston’s most dangerous hitters in the lineup. Yet, dig into the advanced numbers, and you'll find a profile that’s as confounding as it is productive.

Story has launched round-trippers in four different games already, including two different three-run blasts on April 18, displaying his ability to change a contest with a single swing.

On paper, Story is obliterating the ball. His average exit velocity this season sits at 91.0 mph, up from his 2024 mark, and his hard-hit rate of 55.2% is a career high. Meanwhile, he’s barreling 13.4% of batted balls, which is all fine and good, but actually down slightly from past seasons. His launch-angle “sweet spot” percentage, however, clocks in at just 37.3%, suggesting fewer perfectly struck balls than one might expect given his raw power.

And, despite that raw contact, Story’s squared-up rate (how much exit velocity he generates relative to his swing and the pitch’s speed), is just 17.2%, which is very much below the league average (32% in the 2024 season).

Expected metrics also show a cautionary tale: his expected wOBA (.351) trails his actual wOBA (.363) only slightly on one measure, but a zones-based metric pegs his xwOBA at just .240 against an actual .319, a huge 79-point gap that hints at unsustainable success. More tellingly, Story’s chase rate (swings at pitches outside the strike zone), sits at a brutal 39.2%, and he’s whiffing on 29.2% of all swings — both marks showing a free-swinging approach that typically correlates with unsteady contact quality.

Simply put, how is Story achieving such standout results?

His prowess against breaking balls.

Story’s expected slugging on breaking pitches sits at .503, the highest it’s been since his rookie campaign, while his xSLG on off-speed pitches is high as well. Additionally, Story is using his aggressiveness to his advantage, hunting velocity early in counts (he’s swung at 48.2% of pitches in the zone), which forces pitchers into mistakes they can’t afford in high-pressure moments.

Defensive positioning around the infield is another factor in his bloated numbers. Opponents treat Story as a pull-ball hitter, using a variety of shifts against him, but he’s navigated those defenses with line drives that find strange angles, boosting his BABIP (batting average on balls in play), even if those hits don’t register as perfectly squared up.

Story’s divergence between his raw power metrics and the quality-of-contact data suggests that the speedy slugger could be coming back down to earth sooner than later. Squared-up rates and xwOBA gaps like the ones we see in his profile aren’t often sustained over baseball’s long season. On the other hand, his proficiency against off-speed pitches and his proven track record of handling heaters could also suggest that he’s simply in a groove. Only time will tell.

For now, fans can revel in this bizarre paradox: a slugger whose power shows up everywhere but the sweet spot, yet whose results have been stellar. Whether he continues to defy the underlying metrics or soon regresses, Story’s April heroics have already given the Red Sox and their fans something to cheer about.

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[Bellhorn04]

32 Ks and 4 BBs does not portend well.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

32 Ks and 4 BBs does not portend well.

Story did get his K% below 25% w COL for a couple season, but it's been over 30% every year w BOS (30.8>32.7> 30.2, this year) It's the 3.8% BB rate that is very low, out of the gate. His career is 8.2%.

Thanks to the .297 BA, his OBP is a decent .330, but there is doubt he can sustain that. Maybe his BA falls but his BB% rises and he can stay near .330.

His .465 SLG is close to his last year w COL, and it would be nice if he can finish the full season near or above that.

.330/.470 would be very nice.