Article: Elbow Injuries Make the AL East More Winnable for the Red Sox

[Davy Andrews]

The Red Sox spent the entire offseason collecting players with a history of elbow injuries. Somehow, it's the Yankees and Orioles whose elbows are betraying them.

Coming into spring training, any reasonable person would have pegged the Red Sox as the American League East team most likely to be victimized by elbow injuries. During the offseason, the team added Garrett Crochet, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022, Walker Buehler, who underwent his second Tommy John surgery in 2022, and Patrick Sandoval, who is still recovering from the internal brace procedure he underwent in 2023. Those three joined current Red Sox Liam Hendriks and Lucas Giolito, who are recovering from their own Tommy John and an internal brace procedures, respectively. Just for good measure, the Red Sox also made smaller moves to bring in Matt Moore, who had Tommy John in 2014, Adam Ottavino (2015), and Jovani Morán (2024). Even if you look past pitchers, Alex Bregman had surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow in November. Surely, if there was one team that would have its postseason chances undermined by the extreme fallibility of the human elbow, it would be the Red Sox, right? Right?

This weekend, however, the Yankees and Orioles were the teams whose elbows betrayed them. New York ace Gerrit Cole reportedly felt off after an ugly performance against the Twins on Thursday. Over the weekend it was reported that Cole has been advised by team doctors to undergo Tommy John surgery, and that he was seeking a second opinion. On Monday night, it was made official: Cole will undergo surgery. This is obviously crushing news for Cole. He’s a former first-round pick with a 2023 Cy Young under his belt to go with multiple All-Star appearances, ERA titles, and strikeout crowns. He’s also been one of the game’s true workhorses, leading his league in innings in 2023, wins in 2021, and starts three separate times. 

Cole will miss all of the 2025 season, and to make matters worse for the Yankees, reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil’s lat strain will keep him out for at least three months. The Yankees still have Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Marcus Stroman, and big free agent acquisition Max Fried. That’s still a pretty great top of the rotation, but losing Cole and Gil is a massive blow.

Let’s head further down I-95. In Baltimore, the Orioles decided to run back their 2024 strategy of rolling out one of the game’s great offenses along with one of its least-pedigreed starting rotations. They let Corbin Burnes walk and brought in Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano to bolster the rotation. Just like last year, they seemed to be playing with fire, and just like last year, they seemed to be depending a whole lot on Grayson Rodriguez developing into an ace. Instead, just like last year, Rodriguez is battling injury. In 2024, he dealt with shoulder inflammation and a lat strain. This year, he spring training with triceps soreness and is now dealing with elbow inflammation. Although the team has said that there’s nothing structurally wrong, Rodriguez received a cortisone injection this weekend, and the best-case scenario is that he’s able to start throwing within a week or two.

“Timeline after a week, I’m not really sure at this point,” manager Brandon Hyde told reporters. “We’ll see how it goes. But we’re giving him a week to not throw and let the cortisone do what it does.” Even in the best case scenario, Rodriguez won’t be ready for Opening Day. To make matters worse, reliever Andrew Kittredge is undergoing surgery to clean up the cartilage in his knee (the elbow of the leg) and will start the season on the IL.

Baseball is zero-sum game, and these unfortunate injuries do stand to benefit the Red Sox quite a bit. The Yankees still have a solid rotation, but they lost a perennial Cy Young candidate and crushed their depth. In other words, both their ceiling and their floor just dropped by quite a bit. If any of their big four starters should stumble or suffer their own injuries, they could be in real trouble. In order to compete, the Orioles will need to keep getting surprising contributions from less-heralded starters, and that’s a tough thing to ask for two seasons in a row. To be clear, The Red Sox haven’t been immune to pitching injuries either. It’s looking more and more likely that both Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello will start the season on the IL. However, their biggest names have so far remained safe, and they have solid options to fill in at the back of the rotation. It’s a long season, and the Red Sox will almost certainly need every bit of the enviable starting pitching depth they have assembled.

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[moonslav59]

The Yanks were an aging team with almost as much injury history as the Sox team. The writing has been on the wall for years.