Article: Making the Hall of Fame Case for Luis Tiant

[Daniel Fox]

Tiant's impressive resume and big-game heroics should make him an easy but sadly overdue decision for the Veterans Committee.

Last week, I took a look at Dwight Evans’ Hall of Fame case and made the argument for his well-deserved election into Cooperstown. Yet Evans is hardly the only Red Sox player who has been overlooked by the Hall of Fame voters, so today, I will make the case for pitching great Luis Tiant to earn his rightful place in baseball immortality.

There was nothing conventional about Luis Tiant's career. A native of Cuba, Tiant was signed by the Cleveland Indians in 1961 and quickly worked his way through the system as a promising fireballer. His progression culminated in a 1968 season that was bested only by Bob Gibson, as he led the AL with a 1.60 ERA and an 8.5 WAR. Shortly after that historic campaign, however, Tiant's career was derailed by arm injuries, forcing him to reinvent himself as a side-arming junkballer. Armed with about 20 different motions and a whole lot of guts, Tiant resurfaced with the Red Sox in the mid-1970s, becoming one of the most beloved players in franchise history due to his one-of-a-kind personality and clutch performances.

Maybe it is because of this uniqueness that Tiant was overshadowed by other great pitchers of his day. Guys like Jim Palmer, Don Drysdale, Ferguson Jenkins, and Don Sutton dominated the decade by eating up innings and racking wins, doing so with a standard over-the-top delivery rather than Tiant's contortions. They were the portrait of the ace that came with the frame, while nobody had really seen anything like Tiant before. Perhaps the best comparison for Tiant, therefore, comes not with the aforementioned quartet of workhorses but with Giants ace Juan Marichal. Like Tiant, the Dominican fireballer succeeded with an unprecedented delivery: in his case, a leg kick that looked more like a ballet dancer than a pitcher. The similarity between the two pitchers doesn't just apply to the aesthetic; they are also lined up on the stat sheet:

Juan Marichal: 243-142, 2.89 ERA, 123 ERA+, 3,507 IP, 2,303 K
Luis Tiant: 229-172, 3.30 ERA, 114 ERA+, 3,486.1 IP, 2,416 K

Based solely on run prevention and peak, you might give a slight edge to Marichal, but these two pitchers had nearly identical careers. Yet that negligible difference is not reflected in the Hall of Fame voting. While Marichal sailed in on his third attempt, Tiant peaked at just 30% in his first year on the ballot and was forced to languish in purgatory for the maximum 15 years. He finally fell off the ballot in 2002 after receiving a lowly 18% of the vote.

So as we did with Evans, let's dive into why Tiant was overlooked. The first glaring issue is that Tiant won 14 fewer games than Marichal but lost 30 more, which undoubtedly turned away some old-school voters who think WHIP is just something Indiana Jones uses. But like so many other pitchers who have had their Hall of Fame case shunned, Tiant's mediocre win-loss total is hardly his fault. While Marichal had Hall of Famers Willie Mays and Willie McCovey in his lineup, the Indians only finished with above fifth place in the American League once in Tiant's six years with the club, which was unsurprisingly the only year during that span when he recorded 20 wins. The very next season, Tiant posted an acceptable 3.73 ERA but led the league with 20 losses because he was supported by an offense that was 21st out of 25 teams in runs scored.

As soon as Tiant got to Boston and teamed up with a functional offense, he started racking up wins at an elite pace. From 1972 to 1978, Tiant averaged 17.2 wins per season, right in line with Marichal's 17.8 average during his 13 years as a full-time starter. If you prorate Tiant's total in Boston over his 17 years as a full-time starter, he would have won over 292 games, a total exceeded only by 23 Hall of Famers, nineteenth century great Bobby Mathews, and Roger Clemens.

Like his win total, Titant's ERA can also be deceiving. His 3.30 ERA in the hitting-suppressed 1960s and 1970s was only good for a 114 ERA+, tied with the likes of Rick Reuschel, Masahiro Tanaka, and Adam Wainwright. Yet while ERA+ takes into account the scoring environment of the era, it does not account for the quality of opponents and their ballparks. So while a pitcher like Juan Marichal pitched against the light-hitting lineups of the NL West and their cavernous ballparks, Tiant pitched the second-half of his career in the AL East against the stacked lineups of the Orioles and Yankees.

While it is understandable that voters of the 1990s may have overlooked park-adjusted metrics, their neglect of one of the best big-game pitchers of all time is harder to wrap your head around. Tiant's 1975 run, in particular, is the stuff of legends, beginning with a complete-game three-hitter against the three-time champion Athletics in the ALCS. The Red Sox would sweep Oakland to advance to the World Series, where the 108-win Big Red Machine awaited. Yet even a lineup featuring three future Hall-of-Famers and Pete Rose stood no chance against El Tiante, who bended, twisted, and finessed his way to a complete-game shutout in the opener.

 

As dominant as he was in Game 1, his Game 4 performance may have surpassed it. Despite not having his best stuff, Tiant threw 173 pitches and gutted his way to a 5-4, complete-game victory. The massive workload meant that Tiant was a question mark for a potential Game 7, but three consecutive rainouts allowed him to take the ball in Game 6. Facing Tiant for the third time, the Reds finally began to figure him out, tallying six runs against the ace in a game that became famous for the heroics of a different Red Sox fan favorite: Carlton Fisk.

Had the Red Sox won the World Series, Tiant would not only have won MVP, but gone down as one of Boston's all-time sports heroes. Instead, the Red Sox would lose Game 7 in heartbreaking fashion, and Tiant's postseason heroics would go down a footnote. Tiant would also extend the Red Sox's season by a day in 1978, when he pitched a complete-game shutout against the Blue Jays to force a one-game playoff against the Yankees. Because he was forced to pitch in Game 162, however, Tiant was unavailable for the must-win game, and it was instead Mike Torrez who gave up the crucial home run to Bucky Dent.

Tiant may never have won a World Series, but his big-game performances only add to an already strong Cooperstown case. His 2,416 strikeouts are one of the best totals of his contact-oriented era, ahead of the likes of Palmer, Marichal, Robin Roberts, and Sandy Koufax. His 3.30 ERA, though partially inflated by Fenway Park, is still ahead of 19 Hall of Famers, including Bert Blyleven, John Smoltz, and Jenkins. And despite a brief, mid-career switch to the bullpen, Tiant still racked up 3,486.1 innings pitched on the strength of six seasons with at least 250 innings pitched, the same as rubber-armed Nolan Ryan.

The advanced metrics paint a similar picture. While his 66.1 total WAR is six below the Hall of Fame average at the position, it is above of 34 other Hall of Fame starters, including first-balloters Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Bob Feller. Tiant’s 55.1 JAWS score, which averages his total WAR and the WAR from his seven-year peak, is also a tick behind the Hall of Fame average at the position but is still ahead of the likes of Sabathia, Smoltz, Sutton, and Jim Bunning. So even though Tiant may not have the hardware of a Greg Maddux or a Randy Johnson, his resume is right in line with many of his peers who sailed into Cooperstown.

With his 15-year stay on the BBWAA ballot complete, Tiant's only chance at the Hall of Fame now comes through the Veterans Committee, a 16-man collection of former players, managers, executives, and writers. One has to only look at their recent election history to find optimism for Tiant's eventual election. In 2018, the committee elected Jack Morris, another famous big-game pitcher who had an ERA over a half-run higher than Tiant. In 2022, they elected Jim Kaat, who, despite pitching in over 1,000 more innings than Tiant, had over 20 less WAR and 45 fewer strikeouts in his 25-year career.

So yes, the time will come for Tiant, whose support should only grow stronger as other 1970s stars like Dave Parker, Ted Simmons, and Dick Allen clear off the ballot. The only sad part is that Tiant won't be around to enjoy his long-awaited induction, as he died last October at the age of 83. Yet for all the Red Sox fans who watched Tiant give his heart and soul every time he took the mound, his eventual induction of one of the most beloved players in franchise history will be a bittersweet day.

 

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[moonslav59]

Opening up the can of worms for injury-shortened careers is problematic, but to me, Tiant was a great pitcher for many years.

I'm tight-fisted, when it comes to the HOF. I see more undeserving players in it than deserings ones out of it.

It's easy to compare some players to the worst ones in the Hall, and that makes sense, but I don't like to do that.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Opening up the can of worms for injury-shortened careers is problematic, but to me, Tiant was a great pitcher for many years.

I'm tight-fisted, when it comes to the HOF. I see more undeserving players in it than deserings ones out of it.

It's easy to compare some players to the worst ones in the Hall, and that makes sense, but I don't like to do that.

He has 65.6 bWAR (more than Halladay, Feller, Marichal, Sabathia). He really didn't have an injury shortened career as he pitched until his 40's. I know he's a lower tiered candidate, but he's deserving (as are Kevin Brown and Rick Reuschel). Sabathia was a slam dunk this year. Tiant would be if he just retired too. 

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He has 65.6 bWAR (more than Halladay, Feller, Marichal, Sabathia). He really didn't have an injury shortened career as he pitched until his 40's. I know he's a lower tiered candidate, but he's deserving (as are Kevin Brown and Rick Reuschel). Sabathia was a slam dunk this year. Tiant would be if he just retired too. 

Good points. I'm not saying he doesn't "deserve it" over others already in the HOF. I don't think some in it belong, so that argument rings hollow, to me. (Not that Feller & Marichal don't belong.)

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good points. I'm not saying he doesn't "deserve it" over others already in the HOF. I don't think some in it belong, so that argument rings hollow, to me. (Not that Feller & Marichal don't belong.)

Halladay and Sabathia aren't HOF worthy? I only mentioned guys that I thought were HOF guys in my argument. 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Halladay and Sabathia aren't HOF worthy? I only mentioned guys that I thought were HOF guys in my argument. 

Haven't given those two much thought. I think Sabathia had 6-7 really good years and maybe a handful of pretty good ones. I'm not sure on him.

Halladay was super great for 6 years in a row and a couple other years, too. He was decent for 3-4 more. I'd say he is closer and deserves it.