Article: Will the Red Sox Let Wilyer Abreu Face Left-Handed Pitching?

[Davy Andrews]

The Red Sox have yet to add a right-handed outfielder to replace Tyler O'Neill. Either they're expecting Rob Refsnyder to step up, or Wilyer Abreu won't have a platoon partner.

Alex Cora spent pretty much the entire 2024 season protecting Wilyer Abreu from left-handed pitchers. The rookie started just six games against lefties all season, and only one of them came after May. Of his 447 plate appearances, 18% came against lefties, one of the lowest rates in all of baseball. The numbers certainly made that look like a good decision. Abreu ran an excellent 126 wRC+ against righties and a disastrous 48 wRC+ against lefties.

To be clear, 67 plate appearances is a tiny sample. If you dig into the advanced stats, you’ll find that Abreu probably got a little bit unlucky. He both walked and struck out less often against lefties than against righties, and when facing lefties, he ran a .238 BABIP. However, he had some very real and large contact quality issues. When he faced lefties, Abreu’s bat speed was 1.8 mph lower, and his average exit velocity was 4.1 mph lower. Those are gargantuan differences. Abreu hit the ball harder against righties and he put it in the air more often, allowing him to rack up extra-base hits. He ran a 31% groundball against righties and a 49% mark against lefties.

We probably shouldn’t expect Abreu to ever excel against left-handed pitching. The problem isn’t new: We don’t have a ton of minor league data to play with, but according to Statcast, Abreu’s .299 xwOBA against lefties in Triple A was a huge step below his .383 xwOBA against righties. Abreu’s steep bat path makes it difficult to crush high fastballs and soft stuff away, and lefties were content to pound the outside corner whenever he came to the plate.

 

All the same, Abreu is 25 years old and has one full major league season under his belt. He may not be great, but there’s still plenty of time for him to improve and adjust to the way he’s being pitched. He may well have to, because Tyler O’Neill and Bobby Dalbec, who combined to make 25 of Boston’s 43 starts against lefties, are both gone. The Red Sox have so far chosen not to make any attempt to replace O’Neill, so until Roman Anthony makes his way to Boston, it looks like there aren’t any reinforcements coming to the outfield. Rob Refsnyder excels against lefties, and it’s possible that after his breakout 2024 season, the Red Sox are planning on letting him serve as Abreu’s platoon partner in right field. As of now, that appears to be the only alternative to letting Abreu start every day and just hoping that he figures things out. To be clear, I’m not necessarily opposed to that plan. If Abreu even learns to hold his own against lefties, that makes him an even more valuable player, and the only way he’s going to learn is by facing them as often as possible.

I hate to bring this up, but I wrote a very similar article to this one just about a year ago, about Twins second baseman Edouard Julien. Like Abreu, Julien is a left-handed hitter with a steep swing. Like Abreu, he put up an excellent rookie campaign by mashing right-handed pitching, pretty much never facing left-handed pitching, and struggling immensely on the rare occasions when he did. The reason I hate to bring this up is that Julien had a rough 2024 season, and the Twins ended up sending him back down to Triple A to try to get his swing figured out. He’s still got tons of potential, and I am rooting for him very hard, but the Twins have a crowded infield, and his path to playing time might be difficult. Does any of that sound familiar? To be clear, Abreu’s floor is probably a bit higher; his splits aren’t quite as extreme as Julien’s, and he also provides a ton of value through his defense and baserunning. All the same, unless the Red Sox go out and find a right-handed corner outfielder – and there are very few of them left – we’re not sure what they’ll be asking of Abreu this season.

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[moonslav59]

I would not start him vs LHPs to begin the season. I'd use Refsnyder at corner OF as the starter v lefties. (Yoshida would be the FT DH.)

Once we see how Abreu does, when he faces LH'd RP'ers, that might change, some. The arrival of Anthony or even playing Campbell in the OF might force the choice for us.

I'd go:

v RHPs: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF

v LHPs: Ref LF, Duran CF, Rafaela RF (in away games w shorter RF's, I'd flip Ref to RF, Duran to LF and Rafaela in CF.)

Anthony has had decent splits in the minors, but rookies often struggle vs off-handed pitchers, out of the gate. He will not be added to the 40, until he's added to the 26 as a FT player or very near FT player. To me, he'd force an Abreu-Rafaela platoon. If Campbell is added as an OF'er, Rafaela would become the super utility guy or FT SS, if Story is out. (He could play some 2B, if Anthony is in the OF and Campbell not on the 26.)

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I think Cora is very good at handling things like this.  He'll let Abreu get some AB's against lefties and see how it goes.

[moonslav59]

Last year, Abreu started 104 of 119 games when a RHP started (87%.)

He started 6 out of 43 games when a lefty started (14%.)

I expect about the same in 2025. I think Ref missed some time, and O'Nell did miss a lot of time, so maybe he would not have started that many (6) vs LHPs, had they been healthy.

We'll see.