Article: The Red Sox Should Be Excited About Trevor Story

[Brandon Glick]

The Red Sox have only had glimpses of the mile-high slugger Trevor Story used to be, much to the chagrin of the Fenway faithful. Despite what our intuitions may tell us, hope is not yet lost.

Earlier this week, @Davy Andrews laid out a pretty strong case for why Trevor Story — who has half of his original six-year, $140-million deal remaining — just isn’t going to live up to that massive contract. Story's bat has fallen off a cliff in recent years, especially in terms of strikeout rate and exit velocity. He’s getting slower, and at 32 years old, coming off three consecutive injury-shortened seasons, he isn’t going to magically regain the footspeed that allowed him to swipe 27 bags per 162 games between 2018 and 21. His defense is excellent, but his throwing arm and declining range will eventually force him to move off shortstop. And, of course, he simply just can’t stay healthy, having played in just 163 games since coming to Boston.

Wait, where was I going with this again? Oh yes — despite all those worrisome trends and issues, Story needn't have a tragic ending. Story’s story is far from being completely written, and it’s not like anyone expected his contract to be a fairytale anyway. At this point, the narrative is what it is, and all Story can do now is forge ahead and write a new chapter. I have so many more puns, but I have to stop or Davy won’t let this paragraph see the light of day. [Editor's Note: Yup.]

To start, let’s tackle that first (and most pressing) point: Story’s bat is in rapid decline. From his debut in 2016 to his final year in Colorado, Story averaged an .863 OPS (112 OPS+, which is park adjusted), 4.5 WAR, and 26 home runs per season. In 2019, which was arguably his best season, he ranked in the 82nd percentile in average exit velocity and the 86th percentile in hard-hit rate, and was above-average in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. Coors Field may have helped boost his numbers, but Story was a certified star in his prime, and the altitude didn't magically make him hit the ball harder.

Fast-forward to 2024, and everything but Story's walk rate was pretty much in the gutter. However, it was an incredibly small sample size, just 106 plate appearances, and he got hot down the stretch, hitting for a 119 wRC+ and .790 OPS in September. Take things back a year or two, and you’ll see that Story still has the skills that made him a menace in the batter’s box. His max exit velocity in 2022 was 113.4 miles per hour, which ranked in the 92nd percentile; his average launch angle has consistently remained incredibly around his career average of 17.7 degrees; and, against fastballs, he is still deadly, batting .294 with a .471 slugging percentage in 2024.

Story's strikeout rate has ballooned since coming to Boston, but the injuries shoulder a huge portion of the blame for that. It’s hard to get into a rhythm at the plate without consistent reps, and Story’s huge 11% walk rate in September is an encouraging sign that he may finally be getting comfortable with his plate approach again. He may not be the hitter he was with the Rockies, but the profile of a starting-caliber shortstop is still there.

Assuming his bat can make something of a comeback, Story still needs to account for his slowing speed. In 2019, his sprint speed ranked in the 95th percentile in all of baseball. In 2022, it ranked 80th. And in his limited action last year, his sprint speed fell all the way to the 70th percentile. Speed is the first thing to go as athletes age, and Story’s injury history means that he may lose it faster than most. Still, being an above-average sprinter means his speed hasn't completely evaporated yet, and his elite baserunning instincts should only improve with age. In every season of his career, Story has been above-average in Statcast’s Baserunning Run Value (a metric designed to use data to evaluate the performance of baserunners in taking extra bases). He’s consistently been in the 75th percentile or higher for that metric, and he peaked at the 96th percentile in 2020. He may not steal as many bases as he once did, and he may not be the best bet to advance from first to third on every single to the outfield, but you can be sure Story won’t run himself into outs. That, by itself, is a valuable skill.

Lastly, let’s take a look at his defense. His arm has always been a huge weakness, peaking at the 37th percentile in 2020. That isn’t going to improve any time soon. However, he’s always been a stellar shortstop in terms of range and instincts, and that should continue at least through the life of his deal in Boston. Statcast's Fielding Run Value metric thought Story saved the Red Sox two runs, which was impressive considering how little time he got to spend at the position. In his last full season in 2019, Story was worth an outstanding  14 runs, a top-10 mark among all players. Perhaps a move over to second base would help mask his weak arm, but his glove remains a net positive.

Now, admittedly, this is a pretty optimistic take on a guy who is nearing his mid-30s and can’t seem to stay on the field. Story does have an opt-out on his contract after this season, but he’s a virtual lock to remain with the Red Sox for the final two years and $46 million on his contract. Boston could void that opt-out by exercising a $25 million club option that would tack on a seventh year to the original contract, but Story would need to have one of the greatest seasons ever in 2025 to make that even a remote possibility.

Once upon a time, Story was meant to be the final piece in an infield puzzle that also included Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. W ith the former now in San Diego (on his own mess of a contract) and the latter potentially shifting to first base, Story isn’t going to fix all that ails the Red Sox. However, if he can finally beat the injury bug and finally get into a rhythm, Boston will have one less position to worry about in 2025.

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[mvp 78]

119 wRC+ last September

4 WAR season this year for Story

[moonslav59]

If Mayer ever wins the SS job, Story could be an excellent 2Bman over his last 2-3 years wit BOS.

It's always about his health.