Andrew Roberts’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint: An ace and a lineup retool

[Andrew Roberts]

It's very clear the Sox need an ace, arguably far more than they need Juan Soto. It would be smartest if their biggest ticket acquisition was a pitcher. Max Fried would be an instant fit; Lucas Giolito is already actively recruiting him and he would balance out a right-handed heavy rotation. Let the Mets or Yankees have Soto, and go all in on signing Fried for around 6 years, $180 million.

When it comes to the lineup, flexibility and balance should be the focal points. I have the Sox signing Alex Bregman, who has expressed willingness to play at second base. Why him over a natural 2B like Gleyber Torres? That flexibility to play third could come in handy, as it allows Devers to see some at bats at DH, with Vaughn Grissom and later Kristian Campbell taking some at bats at second in a more righty heavy lineup. I would also prefer Bregman over a lot of the free agent outfielders on the market due to his low strikeout rate. In the long term, I think Devers will make the move to DH with Campbell taking over whichever position Bregman does not. I have Bregman signing for 5 years, $125M. It's possible Masataka Yoshida is traded in the future to make way for this, but I have them holding onto him in hopes his value goes up and that he can continue to get on base consistently.

Lastly, I have the Red Sox making a trade that has been heavily rumored, dealing Wilyer Abreu, Franklin Arias, and possibly 1 more prospect for SP Garrett Crochet. Crochet would slot in as a playoff starter alongside Fried and Houck, with Bello and Giolito filling out the rotation. In this scenario, I have Kutter Crawford shifting to a depth starter/bulk relief role, similar to what Nick Pivetta held in 2023. Crawford's job would be to take over when one of the starters is struggling or to follow up an opener when a starter is on the IL.

With Abreu gone, I have Roman Anthony taking over as the de facto right fielder. Anthony has been tearing it up at every level he's played at, and he is more than ready for the job.

In this scenario, I would expect the Red Sox to primarily utilize the following 2 lineups:

vs. RHP

1. Jarren Duran LF (L)

2. Trevor Story SS (R)

3. Rafael Devers 3B (L)

4. Triston Casas 1B (L)

5. Alex Bregman 2B (R)

6. Masataka Yoshida DH (L)

7. Roman Anthony RF (L)

8. Kyle Teel C (L)

9. Ceddanne Rafaela CF (R)

vs. LHP

1. Jarren Duran LF (L)

2. Trevor Story SS (R)

3. Rafael Devers DH (L)

4. Alex Bregman 3B (R)

5. Triston Casas 1B (L)

6. Rob Refsnyder RF (R)

7. Vaughn Grissom/Kristian Campbell 2B (R)

8. Connor Wong C (R)

9. Ceddanne Rafaela CF (R)

I feel these lineups would embrace a strong combination of youth and experience.

• C: Connor Wong ($0.80M)
• 1B: Tristan Casas ($0.80M)
• 2B: Alex Bregman ($25.00M)
• 3B: Rafael Devers ($27.07M)
• SS: Trevor Story ($22.50M)
• LF: Jarren Duran ($4.90M)
• CF: Ceddanne Rafaela ($1.25M)
• RF: Roman Anthony ($0.80M)
• DH: Masataka Yoshida ($18.60M)
• 4th OF: Rob Refsnyder ($2.25M)
• Utility: David Hamilton ($0.80M)
• Utility: Vaughn Grissom ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Kyle Teel ($0.80M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Max Fried ($30.00M)
• SP2: Tanner Houck ($4.50M)
• SP3: Garrett Crochet ($2.90M)
• SP4: Brayan Bello ($2.66M)
• SP5: Lucas Giolito ($19.00M)
• RP: Liam Hendricks ($6.00M)
• RP: Kutter Crawford ($3.50M)
• RP: Garrett Whitlock ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Wilson ($0.80M)
• RP: Michael Fulmer ($0.80M)
• RP: Josh Winckowski ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Slaten ($0.80M)
• RP: Brennan Bernardino ($0.80M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 10.14% under budget

[Andrew Roberts]

It's very clear the Sox need an ace, arguably far more than they need Juan Soto. It would be smartest if their biggest ticket acquisition was a pitcher. Max Fried would be an instant fit; Lucas Giolito is already actively recruiting him and he would balance out a right-handed heavy rotation. Let the Mets or Yankees have Soto, and go all in on signing Fried for around 6 years, $180 million.

When it comes to the lineup, flexibility and balance should be the focal points. I have the Sox signing Alex Bregman, who has expressed willingness to play at second base. Why him over a natural 2B like Gleyber Torres? That flexibility to play third could come in handy, as it allows Devers to see some at bats at DH, with Vaughn Grissom and later Kristian Campbell taking some at bats at second in a more righty heavy lineup. I would also prefer Bregman over a lot of the free agent outfielders on the market due to his low strikeout rate. In the long term, I think Devers will make the move to DH with Campbell taking over whichever position Bregman does not. I have Bregman signing for 5 years, $125M. It's possible Masataka Yoshida is traded in the future to make way for this, but I have them holding onto him in hopes his value goes up and that he can continue to get on base consistently.

Lastly, I have the Red Sox making a trade that has been heavily rumored, dealing Wilyer Abreu, Franklin Arias, and possibly 1 more prospect for SP Garrett Crochet. Crochet would slot in as a playoff starter alongside Fried and Houck, with Bello and Giolito filling out the rotation. In this scenario, I have Kutter Crawford shifting to a depth starter/bulk relief role, similar to what Nick Pivetta held in 2023. Crawford's job would be to take over when one of the starters is struggling or to follow up an opener when a starter is on the IL.

With Abreu gone, I have Roman Anthony taking over as the de facto right fielder. Anthony has been tearing it up at every level he's played at, and he is more than ready for the job.

In a smaller move, I'd have the Red Sox re-signing Danny Jansen to a 1 year, $7.5 million deal to improve the defense at catcher until Kyle Teel is ready.

In this scenario, I would expect the Red Sox to primarily utilize the following 2 lineups:

vs. RHP

1. Jarren Duran LF (L)

2. Trevor Story SS (R)

3. Rafael Devers 3B (L)

4. Triston Casas 1B (L)

5. Alex Bregman 2B (R)

6. Masataka Yoshida DH (L)

7. Roman Anthony RF (L)

8. Connor Wong/Danny Jansen C (R)

9. Ceddanne Rafaela CF (R)

vs. LHP

1. Jarren Duran LF (L)

2. Trevor Story SS (R)

3. Rafael Devers DH (L)

4. Alex Bregman 3B (R)

5. Triston Casas 1B (L)

6. Rob Refsnyder RF (R)

7. Vaughn Grissom/Kristian Campbell 2B (R)

8. Connor Wong/Danny Jansen C (R)

9. Ceddanne Rafaela CF (R)

I feel these lineups would embrace a strong combination of youth and experience.

• C: Danny Jansen ($7.50M)
• 1B: Tristan Casas ($0.80M)
• 2B: Alex Bregman ($25.00M)
• 3B: Rafael Devers ($27.07M)
• SS: Trevor Story ($22.50M)
• LF: Jarren Duran ($4.90M)
• CF: Ceddanne Rafaela ($1.25M)
• RF: Roman Anthony ($0.80M)
• DH: Masataka Yoshida ($18.60M)
• 4th OF: Rob Refsnyder ($2.25M)
• Utility: Vaughn Grissom ($0.80M)
• Utility: Kristian Campbell ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Connor Wong ($0.80M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Max Fried ($30.00M)
• SP2: Tanner Houck ($4.50M)
• SP3: Garrett Crochet ($2.90M)
• SP4: Brayan Bello ($2.66M)
• SP5: Lucas Giolito ($19.00M)
• RP: Liam Hendricks ($6.00M)
• RP: Kutter Crawford ($3.50M)
• RP: Garrett Whitlock ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Wilson ($0.80M)
• RP: Michael Fulmer ($0.80M)
• RP: Josh Winckowski ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Slaten ($0.80M)
• RP: Brennan Bernardino ($0.80M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 6.78% under budget

[moonslav59]

How about Bregman at 3B, Devers at 1B, Casas at DH or trade Arias, Casas + Abreu for an even better pitcher than Crochet?

The defense would be way better. Bregman blocks Campbell at 2B.

I'm not convinced Crochet is the real deal, and 2 years of control takes a bite out of our extended future.

[moonslav59]

If we sign Bregman, let's boost the D and play him at 3B, Devers at 1B and Campbell (DHam/Grissom) at 2B.

Casas can DH or trade Casas and Abreu for a better pitcher than Crochet.

[Hitch]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Bregman at 3B, Devers at 1B, Casas at DH or trade Arias, Casas + Abreu for an even better pitcher than Crochet?

The defense would be way better. Bregman blocks Campbell at 2B.

I'm not convinced Crochet is the real deal, and 2 years of control takes a bite out of our extended future.

I'm worried about Bregman's decline. Giving him a long contract would scare the s*** out of me.

 

Moving Devers to 1st and having a good defender at 3rd should make us far better defensively, however. 

 

Casas and Abreu, you'd think, would bring back a very tasty starting pitcher. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

I'm worried about Bregman's decline. Giving him a long contract would scare the s*** out of me.

 

Moving Devers to 1st and having a good defender at 3rd should make us far better defensively, however. 

 

Casas and Abreu, you'd think, would bring back a very tasty starting pitcher. 

I'm far from sold on Bregman, too. I actually think he is too risky for the long term deal he will get.  I'm no fan of Arenado, either, but if we can balance his money by giving Yoshida, along with others, I'd rather go that route.

Bregman has had some super long slumps, in the last couple of years, usually early in the season.

2024: .534 in a 37 game stretch from early April to May. He was at .700 on July 3rd and only .720 on AUG 6th. Only his .912 OPS over his last 36 games "saved" his 2024 numbers.

2023: .690 through his first 50 games. .704 after 70 games. .718 after 92 games. His last 69 games at .918 carried his numbers.

2022: .555 for 30 games from mid May to mid June. He had a good long finish to 2022: .841 over 117 games.

Career: 100 points better in the second half.

While he did have his 3rd best OPS+ season in 2022, that almost looks like an outlier.

OPS+

114 from 2019-2020

134 in 2022

120 from '23-'24

It seems like ages ago, he was a god (ages 24-25) with a 157 OPS+.

His bWAR has been pretty solid in the past 3 seasons: 4.6, 4.9, 4.1, but was 7.9 and 8.9 in '18 & '19.

fWAR: 7.9>8.3> (1.3 COVID)>2.1>5.4>4.5>4.1 (2 year decline)

 

[notin]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

I'm worried about Bregman's decline. Giving him a long contract would scare the s*** out of me.

 

Moving Devers to 1st and having a good defender at 3rd should make us far better defensively, however. 

 

Casas and Abreu, you'd think, would bring back a very tasty starting pitcher. 

The problem with trying to trade Casas and Abreu for a SP is most teams looking for MLB hitters aren’t shopping their SPs.  That’s why I was surprised the White Sox wanted Abreu.  Maybe they said something like “well there’s this certain left-handed hitting right fielder who could headline the trade.”

If you use BTV, the closest matches to that pair are Brandon Pfaadt and Logan Webb.    I don’t see either the Giants or the D-Backs making that trade.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The problem with trying to trade Casas and Abreu for a SP is most teams looking for MLB hitters aren’t shopping their SPs.  That’s why I was surprised the White Sox wanted Abreu.  Maybe they said something like “well there’s this certain left-handed hitting right fielder who could headline the trade.”

If you use BTV, the closest matches to that pair are Brandon Pfaadt and Logan Webb.    I don’t see either the Giants or the D-Backs making that trade.

The Astros need a 1Bman and OF'er, along with some serious offense. They also made the playoffs with 4 of their best 6-7 SP'ers out for most of the year. The problem is, almost all their SP'ers are injury-prone.

Framber V just has one arb left.

McCullers is worse than Paxton, Richards and Kluber, in terms of injury history.

Javier has 3 years at $12.8M AAV ($53M/3 salary), also a risk

Luis Garcia has 2 arbs left and is a big risk.

Hunter Brown (26 y/o) is pre arb (4 years of control) but may be untouchable.

Arrighetti (24 y/0)  is pre-arb (5 years) and may also be untouchable.

JP France (turns 30 in '25) and Ronel Blanco (31 y/0) are also pre-arb, but are they upgrades over what we have?

I'm not sure we can get what we need- a durable SP'er who is clearly better than Crawford/Bello/Giolito.

Casas or Abreu plus Crawford or Priester/Fitts for Brown?

Casas, Abreu and Fitts for Framber and a reasonable extension?

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Astros need a 1Bman and OF'er, along with some serious offense. They also made the playoffs with 4 of their best 6-7 SP'ers out for most of the year. The problem is, almost all their SP'ers are injury-prone.

Framber V just has one arb left.

McCullers is worse than Paxton, Richards and Kluber, in terms of injury history.

Javier has 3 years at $12.8M AAV ($53M/3 salary), also a risk

Luis Garcia has 2 arbs left and is a big risk.

Hunter Brown (26 y/o) is pre arb (4 years of control) but may be untouchable.

Arrighetti (24 y/0)  is pre-arb (5 years) and may also be untouchable.

JP France (turns 30 in '25) and Ronel Blanco (31 y/0) are also pre-arb, but are they upgrades over what we have?

I'm not sure we can get what we need- a durable SP'er who is clearly better than Crawford/Bello/Giolito.

Casas or Abreu plus Crawford or Priester/Fitts for Brown?

Casas, Abreu and Fitts for Framber and a reasonable extension?

I don’t see the Astros having any pitching depth.

Both Christian Javier and Luis Garcia are recovering from TJ and are going to start the season on the IL, and probably miss a minimum of half the year.  If McCullers isn’t there with them in a March, he will be in April.  Book it.

France and Blanco are serviceable, although France is borderline..  Brown is a rising star and Arighetti has potential.  But who else?  This team is in no position to deal Framber Valdez…

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm far from sold on Bregman, too. I actually think he is too risky for the long term deal he will get.  I'm no fan of Arenado, either, but if we can balance his money by giving Yoshida, along with others, I'd rather go that route.

Bregman has had some super long slumps, in the last couple of years, usually early in the season.

2024: .534 in a 37 game stretch from early April to May. He was at .700 on July 3rd and only .720 on AUG 6th. Only his .912 OPS over his last 36 games "saved" his 2024 numbers.

2023: .690 through his first 50 games. .704 after 70 games. .718 after 92 games. His last 69 games at .918 carried his numbers.

2022: .555 for 30 games from mid May to mid June. He had a good long finish to 2022: .841 over 117 games.

Career: 100 points better in the second half.

While he did have his 3rd best OPS+ season in 2022, that almost looks like an outlier.

OPS+

114 from 2019-2020

134 in 2022

120 from '23-'24

It seems like ages ago, he was a god (ages 24-25) with a 157 OPS+.

His bWAR has been pretty solid in the past 3 seasons: 4.6, 4.9, 4.1, but was 7.9 and 8.9 in '18 & '19.

fWAR: 7.9>8.3> (1.3 COVID)>2.1>5.4>4.5>4.1 (2 year decline)

 

Agreed on all counts. I do think the Bregman thing is us kicking the tyres rather than it having any real substance to it.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The problem with trying to trade Casas and Abreu for a SP is most teams looking for MLB hitters aren’t shopping their SPs.  That’s why I was surprised the White Sox wanted Abreu.  Maybe they said something like “well there’s this certain left-handed hitting right fielder who could headline the trade.”

If you use BTV, the closest matches to that pair are Brandon Pfaadt and Logan Webb.    I don’t see either the Giants or the D-Backs making that trade.

Seattle does feel (somewhat) like a match in that they need position players. Houston, like Moon has mentioned, could definitely be interested in Casas I would think, though I agree that the pitching isn't there for us in a match.

 

If Casas is as highly rated within the league as we're hoping, I think a lot of teams would move for him and make adjustments. If he isn't, then that changes it all, obviously.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Agreed on all counts. I do think the Bregman thing is us kicking the tyres rather than it having any real substance to it.

I'm also one that thinks spending on Teoscar, instead of pitching would be a mistake, unless we trade some lefty bats (Casas, Abreu, Mayer, DHam....) for a top pitcher.

Soto makes sense, and a "bridge to Teel" catcher, but the rest of the focus needs to be a frontline SP'er and two very good RP'ers, one being a lefty (Scott.)

[moonslav59]

Who could be a third team involved in a trade that send Casas and/or Abreu to SEA, STL or HOU?

Do those 4 teams have the prospects needed to help reach the value of a pitcher we could get, assuming we add to the pot for the 3rd team, too?

Casas to SEA/HOU/STL

______ (SP) to BOS

Abreu & _____ to _____?