Article: Red Sox Trade Targets: Devin Williams, The Best Reliever In The National League

[Alex Mayes]

With the Milwaukee Brewers declining to pick up the option for Devin Williams, it would make far too much sense for Craig Breslow and the Red Sox to pick up the phone and give the Brewers a call to see what it would take to get the ace closer to Boston. 

Somewhat forgotten with the talk of adding a top-of-the-rotation arm and a power first right-handed hitter, the Boston Red Sox need a closer. Kenley Jansen departed in free agency and is almost guaranteed not to return to Boston. A reunion with Chris Martin seems possible, but trusting him to close out games across a full season seems like a tall task. I’ve already written about internal candidates for the closer role and still believe any of them stand a chance to take it.

Still, with recent news out of Milwaukee that the Brewers declined the option on Devin Williams, it caused me to start wondering what a trade for him would look like. The Brewers have a history of this; just look at free agent Corbin Burnes. They’ve recently even gone on record saying they have no plans to trade Williams, but that doesn’t mean much in modern-day baseball. At one point, they had no interest in trading Burnes or Josh Hader before him. With that in mind, let’s look at what a potential trade for Williams could cost the Red Sox. 

I contacted some colleagues from Brewer Fanatic to see what they thought a fair return for someone of Devin Williams' caliber would be. The general consensus was that a high-ceiling pitcher with a decent mix of fastballs would have to be included in the deal. Enter Luis Guerrero. Guerrero features one main fastball, a four-seamer that tops out at 100mph, but has also thrown a cutter and a sinker. He spent most of this season in Worcester, where he posted a 5-3 record, 3.31 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 13.09 K/9. After his call-up in September, he appeared in nine games out of the bullpen, sporting a 0.00 ERA, .80 WHIP, and 8.10 K/9, opening the eyes of fans everywhere. He profiles as a middle-inning reliever, but his ceiling is that of a high-leverage, back-end reliever. Losing out on Williams could cause the Brewers to look at Guerrero as a potential replacement for some of what would be walking out the door with Williams. 

Rarely are trading for MLB-caliber pitchers a one-for-one deal. With the likely departure of Willy Adames in free agency, the Brewers will want to add someone who could potentially end spring training at Triple-A, knocking on the door to the majors. While Mikey Romero isn’t the perfect answer there, he makes the most sense from Boston’s side. He surged this season at Greenville, earning a promotion to Portland. Combined, Romero slashed .265/.813/.508. He committed 11 errors on the season, posting a .948 FLD%. He’s solid at shortstop and second base, making highlight reel-style plays at both. Romero could easily be fast-tracked to the major leagues as long as he continues to improve at the current rate; the Brewers could be incredibly interested in adding his services. 

The trade for Devin Williams would undoubtedly bolster the back of the Red Sox’s bullpen, and giving up any of the “Big Four” for a rental of Williams isn’t smart for the organization's future. Still, a reliever like Guerrero, who projects to be a high-leverage arm, and someone blocked at all levels of the organization like Romero makes a ton of sense. The Red Sox would likely have to include a compensatory draft pick as well, but that would be far easier to stomach should Nick Pivetta turn down the Qualifying Offer and sign elsewhere as he’s now expected to. The Red Sox look like they are primed to make a splash in free agency, so why not also make a huge splash in the trade market?

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[mvp 78]

A comp pick, Romero and Guerrero for one year of Williams? IDK. He had a substantial back injury that kept him out of half of last year that affected how he threw in 2024. He's leaning more on his FB and throwing the air bender much less. He also had a career high FB rate last year. He was still very good, but I worry there could be a reckoning due to that back and the decreased focus of that dominant changeup. 

[notin]

If you believe in the values on BTV, Guerrero ($1.5) and Romero ($4.2) plus a pick only works for Williams ($11.2) if the pick has a surplus of around $6mill.  (It might.)

Guerrero plus Hamilton ($11.2) works better and gives the Brewers an actual replacement for Adames, assuming they don’t mind shifting Brice Turang back to shortstop.

They probably value Williams over that package, but with one year left on his deal and coming off a back injury, I wouldn’t go any higher, assuming I even went that high…

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

If you believe in the values on BTV, Guerrero ($1.5) and Romero ($4.2) plus a pick only works for Williams ($11.2) if the pick has a surplus of around $6mill.  (It might.)

Guerrero plus Hamilton ($11.2) works better and gives the Brewers an actual replacement for Adames, assuming they don’t mind shifting Brice Turang back to shortstop.

They probably value Williams over that package, but with one year left on his deal and coming off a back injury, I wouldn’t go any higher, assuming I even went that high…

Guerrero was worth 2.5M over a month last season. I don't see how he only has a surplus value of 1.5M over the next 6 years. Seems kind of ridiculous to me. Romero may never make MLB, so I can see that low value. This is just critiquing how BTV treats MiLB players, which I think it does a fairly poor job at. 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Guerrero was worth 2.5M over a month last season. I don't see how he only has a surplus value of 1.5M over the next 6 years. Seems kind of ridiculous to me. Romero may never make MLB, so I can see that low value. This is just critiquing how BTV treats MiLB players, which I think it does a fairly poor job at. 

I like BTV and many trades do work on their model.  But they are just one source…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I like BTV and many trades do work on their model.  But they are just one source…

It's all we got for trade modelling from what I know. Is there another version? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, notin said:

If you believe in the values on BTV, Guerrero ($1.5) and Romero ($4.2) plus a pick only works for Williams ($11.2) if the pick has a surplus of around $6mill.  (It might.)

Guerrero plus Hamilton ($11.2) works better and gives the Brewers an actual replacement for Adames, assuming they don’t mind shifting Brice Turang back to shortstop.

They probably value Williams over that package, but with one year left on his deal and coming off a back injury, I wouldn’t go any higher, assuming I even went that high…

The Brewers are one of those teams that BTV can be thrown out the window with, at least on the pitching side of things. They're going to target a guy they like and who the Brewers like are often NOT what you expect. They're crazy-good at developing pitching and it's hard to predict what they find attractive.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's all we got for trade modelling from what I know. Is there another version? 

Other than the fantasy sites (which have an obvious difference), I don’t know of another.  Of course I bet every team has their own proprietary model…

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Brewers are one of those teams that BTV can be thrown out the window with, at least on the pitching side of things. They're going to target a guy they like and who the Brewers like are often NOT what you expect. They're crazy-good at developing pitching and it's hard to predict what they find attractive.

The A’s also never make trades that fit that model.  But BTV is good for what it’s good for - telling you a trade is fair.  Its main and completely unfixable flaw is it cannot incorporate whether or not a team wants to make that trade…

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

The A’s also never make trades that fit that model.  But BTV is good for what it’s good for - telling you a trade is fair.  Its main and completely unfixable flaw is it cannot incorporate whether or not a team wants to make that trade…

Oh for sure. Lots of people hate on BTV all the time, I think it has a purpose if used correctly.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh for sure. Lots of people hate on BTV all the time, I think it has a purpose if used correctly.

I’ve gotten replies that their values are all wrong, which is egomaniacal silliness.  It does work a very good percentage of the time.

 

But do they make mistakes? Yes.  Heck, as of this morning, they listed Cutter Coffey as still on the Red Sox when he was dealt to the Jays last July.  But the occasional even egregious error doesn’t invalidate the entire system…

[notin]

44 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh for sure. Lots of people hate on BTV all the time, I think it has a purpose if used correctly.

Also it’s better when cited, regardless of whether or not folks agree with the model.

There is a world of difference between saying “BTV says it’s a fair trade” and just saying “it’s a fair trade.”  The former is a fact, while the latter is a conclusion that is subject to scrutiny…