Article: Red Sox Free Agent Targets: Corbin Burnes & the Wide-Open Hole Atop the Rotation

[Brandon Glick]

The Orioles ace has hit free agency for the first time in his career. Should the Red Sox attempt to weaken their division rival by signing the former Cy Young award winner?

Though Corbin Burnes was traded to the Baltimore Orioles back in late January, the ace right-hander is well known as one of the figureheads of the most recent iterations of the always-solid Milwaukee Brewers. He responded well to his new digs, accumulating 3.4 WAR and a 2.92 ERA in 194 1/3 innings, earning the start for the American League in the All-Star Game (his fourth consecutive appearance at the Midsummer Classic). The Orioles failed to advance past the Wild Card round of the playoffs, prematurely ending Burnes’s tenure in Maryland, assuming the notoriously frugal O’s don’t loosen their purse strings for a payday that will certainly reach well into nine figures.

Now that Gerrit Cole is officially back with the Yankees, Burnes is probably the best pitcher who is expected to hit the free agent market this winter, though other former Cy Young winners—namely, Shane Bieber and Blake Snell—and other pitchers who’ve had strong performances in recent years (Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi) round out a stronger-than-usual crop of starters. If a team is in the market for an ace, a bounce-back candidate with a strong track record, or even just a plain old “high-risk, high-reward” play, this year’s group of free-agent hurlers is a good place to go window-shopping.

It’s worth noting that for all his recent success, Burnes isn’t the same pitcher who won the Cy Young award in 2021. His durability since then has been beyond impressive (three straight seasons of 190+ innings), but his strikeout rate (35.6% in 2021, 23.1% in 2024), walk rate (5.2% to 6.1%), home run rate (1.1% to 2.8%), and average exit velocity allowed (84.9 MPH to 87.1 MPH) have all taken a turn for the worse. His numbers from this season are still excellent, but he’s more touchable now than when he could make a serious claim as the “best pitcher in the world.” For reference, his 3.55 FIP this past season was more than double his league-leading mark in 2021 (1.63).

Still, his status as a preeminent ace in today's game will net him a contract that probably reaches $200 million, especially when factoring in his track record in the postseason.

Everyone around here knows the Red Sox desperately need an ace atop the rotation. The team did have four starters eclipse 145 innings pitched in 2024, though only one (Tanner Houck) had an ERA below 4.00. Houck and Kutter Crawford were also the only two starters on the team with more than 12 quality starts last year; Burnes alone had 22, plus one in the Wild Card round against the Kansas City Royals. His ability to pitch deep into games while remaining effective is a skill that’s rapidly disappearing from the current zeitgeist, and teams will put a premium on it in free agency, even if his stats show evidence of a downturn.

Most pundits have placed Burnes’s contract projections in the seven-year range, with most foreseeing a contract that’s nine digits long and begins with a “2”. The Red Sox have more than enough payroll space to make that addition, as long as Craig Breslow and company are willing to spend that much on a pitcher already in his 30s. If they can find a suitor to take Masataka Yoshida off their hands, their room under the luxury tax will grow even more, and put them in position for a free agent splash like Burnes.

Breslow has already said the team knows it “needs to raise the ceiling of the rotation”. Nick Pivetta might be back after being extended a Qualifying Offer, but he isn’t the kind of lockdown starter the team needs. Brayan Bello has an exciting profile but hasn’t put it together for a full season at the major league level just yet. Lucas Giolito has three ace-caliber seasons under his belt, though the last one came in 2021 and he’ll be returning from a UCL injury that cost him the entire 2024 season. There’s prospect depth as well, though the top talents in the farm system are all position players (which is an organizational strength they could deal from in a trade).

Burnes isn’t a perfect pitcher, what with his declining strikeout numbers and growing susceptibility to the long ball, but in a division where the Yankees have Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón, the Blue Jays have Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman, and the Rays have a seemingly endless parade of elite young arms, the Red Sox need a veteran capable of going toe-to-toe with the other top pitchers in the American League. The fact that they’d be able to shore up their biggest roster need and weaken a top contender in the division at the same time seems too good to be true.

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What do you think? Should the Red Sox splurge on Burnes? Should they pursue another high-end free agent? Or do you think the team will attack the trade market in search of a controllable arm?

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[Hugh2]

Early I was big on Burnes, but the more I think about it and read about the free agent pitchers, the more I think Max Fried really should be the guy. 

[harmony]

Would anyone prefer three less costly years of Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert over an expensive long-term contract for Corbin Burnes?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/175846

It's curious that Baseball Trade Values assigns Triston Casas (18.7) and Luke Raley (19.0) roughly the same surplus value. Each comes with four year of team control. With his younger age Casas probably has the higher ceiling while Raley has position versatility and better recent production.

How would the removal of Casas and Raley impact the trade proposal? Do the Tampa Bay Rays get shortchanged in the proposed trade?

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, harmony said:

Would anyone prefer three less costly years of Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert over an expensive long-term contract for Corbin Burnes?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/175846

It's curious that Baseball Trade Values assigns Triston Casas (18.7) and Luke Raley (19.0) roughly the same surplus value. Each comes with four year of team control. With his younger age Casas probably has the higher ceiling while Raley has position versatility and better recent production.

How would the removal of Casas and Raley impact the trade proposal? Do the Tampa Bay Rays get shortchanged in the proposed trade?

BTV just functions as a big spreadsheet and is more for fun than anything else. It's the only real valuation tool that we have available to us so it's fine for our purposes, but I wouldn't read too much into it. I don't think they really get into the nitty gritty about how much better Casas could be over the next 4 years than Raley when factoring age. Casas is obviously getting dinged from his injury in '24 and his slow start in '23.