Article: The Up-And-Down Red Sox Tenure of Bobby Dalbec

[Dan Fraser]

A look back at Bobby Dalbec, who once looked like the next great slugger for the Red Sox, but elected free agency over the weekend.

On Saturday, Bobby Dalbec, once the top-ranked prospect in the Red Sox system, elected free agency, putting a quiet end to his nine-year tenure with the team. Dalbec's journey with Boston was one of high expectations, impressive power, slumps, and constant adjustments at the plate.

As a sophomore at the University of Arizona, Dalbec's 15 home runs led the Pac 12 in 2015. His numbers dipped in 2016, and the Red Sox selected in the fourth round of the 2016 draft. Dalbec quickly emerged as a promising power hitter within Boston’s farm system, known for his ability to hit homers and generate impressive exit velocities. He hit 32 homers across two levels in 2018, then 27 in 2019. This potential was on full display in his debut season in 2020. Dalbec hit eight home runs in just 23 games, good for third-most on the team even though Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, the two players ahead of Dalbec, played 30 in more contests. This pleasant surprise set high expectations for his future role in the lineup.

In his first full season in 2021, Dalbec showcased both his strengths and limitations. He finished with a very solid 25 home runs and 78 RBIs over 133 games, providing a much-needed extra bit of power in the lineup. However, his performance was hampered by massive plate discipline issues: Dalbec ran a whopping 34.4% strikeout rate and a paltry 62% contact rate. Both numbers were among the worst in baseball. Dalbec also chased nearly 30% of the time. His .240/.298/.494 slash line was good for a 106 wRC+, a bit above average, but it pointed to a boom-or-bust hitter who struggled to get on base and avoid strikeouts.

The 2022 season brought major challenges for Dalbec. His batting average dropped to .215, but more important, he stopped slugging. He finished the year with only 12 home runs over 117 games, and his wRC+ of 80 meant that he was 20% worse than a league-average hitter. The advanced metrics weren’t great either: his barrel rate fell from 15.2% to 8.9%. With Rafael Devers at third base and Triston Casas rising through the ranks as a promising first baseman, Dalbec's role became increasingly uncertain. By the end of the 2022 season, he was frequently pushed into a bench role, only playing occasionally, and often in pinch-hitting situations.

Dalbec started the 2023 season in triple-A Worcester, working to refine his approach and improve his bat-to-ball skills. He showed some improvements, finishing with a 141 wRC+ and 33 home runs in 114 games. His strikeout rate remained as high as ever, but his walk rate rose to all the way to 13%. These adjustments suggested perhaps he had made some progress, but Boston’s roster configuration and depth in the infield left few opportunities for Dalbec in the majors. Dalbec played just 21 games in the big leagues that year, logging a .204 batting average along with one home run.

The 2024 season proved pivotal, as Dalbec hoped to make his way back with the Sox but ultimately found himself in Worcester after a rough spring. This time around, he saw 37 games with Boston, producing a very poor .133/.216/.211 slash line with just one home run once again. His strikeout rate somehow got worse, jumping to a shocking 46.2%. In September, the Red Sox designated Dalbec for assignment, and he cleared waivers before being outrighted back to Worcester. Despite efforts to reclaim his major league spot, Dalbec was unable to figure out the right adjustments needed to produce consistently against big-league pitching.

Dalbec’s career with the Sox is a testament to the potential and challenges that come with power-focused hitters. It also shines a light on how difficult it can be to improve plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. Despite pop that once ranked among the best in the organization, Dalbec’s struggle to adjust his approach and better his contact reduced his role and impact with the ball club. The sad truth is that, is that stories like Dalbec's are all too common. Things like this happen in baseball, and some guys just never pan out. We can hope a team will be willing to take a chance on Dalbec in free agency, and that there's another chapter to this story.

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[Bellhorn04]

Nice article, Dan.

I think I'll always look on Dalbec as a testament to how hard it is to make that final leap to be able to hit MLB pitching, even when you have consistently proven you can do a lot of damage against AAA pitching.