Article: Thoughts About the Red Sox Stats Survey

[Daniel Fox]

What does Red Sox Nation think about the state of the franchise? And is it right or wrong?

Last week, the great Red Sox Stats conducted its annual offseason survey on Twitter, asking about everything from lineup construction to uniform choices. Over 2,300 diehard fans responded, giving us the best data we'll get on how the fanbase thinks about its team. I took a look at the results and determined what they say about the state of the Red Sox, as well as offering my own two cents about what should be done this offseason.

Will the Red Sox enter the regular season with a payroll higher than $241 million (The first CBT threshold)?

Yes: 14%

No: 86%

My Vote: No

This tells you everything you need to know about the confidence in the team’s willingness to spend big this offseason. The Red Sox currently sit $60 million below that threshold, which means it would take a serious spending spree to exceed that total. I believe that the Red Sox will increase payroll, but won't exceed the first CBT threshold. I think they sign one mid-level starting pitcher and one right-handed bat and come in around $235 million, which gives them some room to maneuver during the trade deadline.

Which best fits your ideal plan for the Red Sox offseason?

Just spend money on pitching and keep all the position players: 41%

Make painful, blockbuster trade investments into pitching: 32%

Make smaller trades for pitching and spend to the CBT: 21%

One-year deals in free agency and keep developing: 1%

Want something totally different from listed options: 5%

My Vote: Make painful, blockbuster trade investments into pitching

 

It’s interesting that spending money on pitching was the highest-voted answer here, as it seems to directly contradict the first question. As I said before, I think the Red Sox do sign a free-agent starting pitcher, but from the Severino-Flaherty-Kikuchi tier rather than a proven number one like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. However, I think we all need to brace ourselves for the possibility of a risky, painful trade. It doesn’t make sense to hold on to all the position players the Red Sox have in the upper minors and majors. There aren’t enough at-bats to go around, especially when you consider the overwhelming left-handedness of the lineup. I personally believe that Abreu will be on the move (which wouldn’t exactly be painful to me), but I wouldn’t be surprised if Mayer, Campbell, or even Duran are on the trading block this offseason. 

A qualifying offer is projected to be $21.2 million this offseason. Who would you give the qualifying offer to?

Tyler O’Neill: 60% Yes

Nick Pivetta: 22% Yes

My Vote: No to both

Yeah, I don’t get this one. First off, Nick Pivetta is not getting a QO. Nobody is paying $21.05 million for a soon-to-be 32-year-old who has never posted an ERA below 4.00. I don’t understand what 22% of fans are thinking here.

Tyler O’Neill is a more complicated matter, and I can see where fans are coming from. The Red Sox need a right-handed bat, and O’Neill was one of the best in all of baseball against left-handed pitchers last year. I just can’t get over the strikeout and the injuries. Making more contact needs to be a priority for the Red Sox, who finished third in the majors last year in punchouts, and re-signing a guy who struck out in 33% of his plate appearances is a bad place to start. Moreover, O’Neill has not shown an ability to stay on the field consistently. The 113 games O’Neill played last year were actually the second-highest total of his career, but he missed time with a concussion, knee soreness, a knee infection, and back tightness. The Red Sox need more consistency up and down the lineup, and though his highs were really high, O’Neill showed last year that could not be counted on for 162 games. There is a chance that O'Neill will decline the offer in search of a multi-year deal, giving the Red Sox a compensatory draft pick, but I wouldn't take the risk of him accepting it. I would much rather go after a guy like Anthony Santander, who has just as much power but has played in 150 games in each of the last three seasons and strikes out only 19.2% of the time.

Thoughts on Masataka Yoshida?

Doesn’t fit the roster: 42%

Should be the Red Sox DH: 15%

Indifferent: 43%

My vote: Doesn’t fit the roster

If you've read anything I've written, you know that indifference is never an option. This is especially true when it comes to Masataka Yoshida, on whom I have very strong opinions. I like the guy and he’s had some fun stretches, but his presence on the big-league roster actively hurts the Red Sox. They already have far too many left-handed batters and far too many guys who could use time at DH. In 2023, the Red Sox had Justin Turner as the full-time DH, but what made it work was that he could also play first or third. Yoshida’s inability to play the field (at least in the eyes of management) forced Tyler O’Neill to play left field every day and Rafael Devers to play third base every day, which actively hurt the Red Sox defense. That might have been acceptable had Yoshida been hitting like Yordan Alvarez, but we have enough data from the last two seasons to conclude that Yoshida is only a slightly above-average hitter.

I get there are still Chaim fans out there who will defend his every move to their last day, but it’s okay to admit he got this wrong; $90 million is a gross overpay for a decent hitter with no defensive value. You don’t need to read between the lines to understand that Craig Breslow feels the same way. His comments about wanting defensive versatility directly don't line up with Yoshida’s skillset. Even if it means eating some money, it would be in both the team's and the player's best interest for the marriage to end this offseason.

Who should be the Red Sox DH?

Right-handed slugger: 47%

Rafael Devers: 20%

Yoshida: 11%

Shuffled through the spot: 17%

Other: 5%

My Vote: Right-handed slugger

My vote here is slightly misleading because I would actually vote for two of the options. As I stated earlier, I would go after a right-handed slugger who would get the majority of at-bats at DH but also can play the field, letting other players shuffle in. This could be Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández, both of whom can field well enough to spend time in left field, or even Gleyber Torres, who can play in the middle infield.

I want to address the 20% of votes that went to Rafael Devers. The fact of the matter is that once you move Devers to designated hitter, you can never put him back at third. That means that you are paying $30 million a year for a designated hitter, which is not the best use of your resources. I understand the frustration with Devers’ defense over the last few years, and I am in favor of having him play some DH to keep him healthy for 162 games, but there’s no doubt he can play the position. Most of his errors come on routine plays, which speaks more to focus issues rather than a talent issue. I also believe having Story at shortstop for a full season will be a tremendous help, as Devers is worst at moving to his left. The time will come for Devers to move down the defensive spectrum, but we are not there yet.

What should be done with Connor Wong?

Starting catcher: 67%

Tandem with Teel: 23%

Replaced with a different starting catcher: 7%

Teel should be the starter: 3%

My Vote: Replaced with a different starting catcher

I’m going to make this as clear as I can: Connor Wong is a really bad defensive catcher, and he has cost the Red Sox countless runs this season. Being in the third percentile in blocking and the 11th percentile in framing is completely unacceptable, and it blows my mind that more fans aren’t upset about this. That mark actually represents a step back from 2023, so the argument that he will get better with experience doesn’t make sense. It’s nice that Wong had a decent offensive season, but defense is more important for a catcher than offense. If the Red Sox are serious about improving their pitching staff and defense, they would sign someone like Kyle Higashioka, who boasts 61st percentile framing. With Wong’s versatility and ability to hit left-handed pitching, he still provides plenty of value to a big-league team. Just don’t tell me he’s an everyday catcher. 

What should be done with Ceddanne Rafaela?

Full-time center fielder: 59%

Non-starting utility role: 30%

Traded: 7%

Minor leagues/infield: 4%

My Vote: Non-starting utility role

Rafaela is not getting traded. It would be an absolute embarrassment to sign someone to an eight-year extension only to turn around and trade him. I have written and tweeted about Rafaela enough over the past two months, so I’ll try to keep this quick. It is impossible to be a successful big-league hitter with a 46% chase rate. To put things in perspective, that number is worse than Javier Báez in all but his absolute worst season. Towards the end of the season, pitchers realized they didn’t have to throw anything near the strike zone to Rafaela, and his chase rate ballooned to over 56% in September. As we’ve seen this postseason, the most successful offenses are the ones that grind out at-bats and wear pitchers down. A .270 on-base percentage is just unacceptable for an everyday player, and based on his minor-league history and progression through the course of the 2024 season, I don’t see that total improving much. The good news about Rafaela, however, is that he is an elite defender in center and and could potentially be an above-average one in the middle infield. With Trevor Story’s injury history and the uncertainty surrounding Vaughn Grissom, Rafaela’s ability to fill in at both second and shortstop, as well as to provide Gold-Glove defense in the center, will make him a valuable player even if he never figures out how to control the strike zone. 

 

 

Who should be the Red Sox closer?

Justin Slaten: 40%

Liam Hendriks: 38%

Garrett Whitlock: 16%

My vote: Justin Slaten

This is a very underrated storyline headed into the 2025 season. Kenley Jansen is already out the door, which means that next year will likely be the first time since 2021 that the Red Sox will enter spring training without a set closer. Of course, Liam Hendriks was the definition of a proven closer during his time with the Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics, but that was two years and one Tommy John surgery ago. You can’t go into a season intending to compete while trusting a 36-year-old to be the same shutdown fireman he was during his prime.

My personal preference would be to bring in someone who closed games in 2024, but the free-agent market doesn’t appear to hold the answers. Other than Kenley Jansen, who will assuredly not be coming back, the only free-agent closers are Paul Sewald and Clay Homes, who were each demoted from the role with their respective teams, and Tanner Scott, who will likely command a bidding war outside the team's ideal price range.

That leaves the internal options, and of all the relievers currently on the Red Sox roster, Justin Slaten profiles the best as a closer. The 26-year-old Rule 5 pick was unfazed during his rookie season, pitching high-leverage innings immediately and walking only nine batters in 55 innings. With an upper-90s fastball and a wipeout sweeper that generated a 35.6% whiff rate, Slaten has the stuff to get the hardest three outs in the game. That doesn’t mean he will be the closer all season long, but he has earned the first look. I understand the thinking behind wanting Garrett Whitlock to return to the closer role, as memories of the 2021 playoffs haven’t quite faded from our minds. Personally, I would rather have him in a multi-inning role like the one he dominated in as a rookie. I am also curious to see how his velocity bounces back after a season-ending injury in 2024. Finally, don’t forget about Luis Guerrero. He dominated as Worcester's closer last season and proved he belonged during a September call-up. I could see him getting a look should he continue to excel in 2025.

Which of the Big 4 would you be most willing to trade?

Marcelo Mayer: 50%

Kristian Campbell/Kyle Teel: 25-ish%

Roman Anthony: Handful of votes

My Vote: Marcelo Mayer

This was a process of elimination for me. First, the only player I would move Roman Anthony for is Tarik Skubal. You don’t trade guys who dominate Triple A as a 20-year-old like Anthony did. Given what we saw from Connor Wong behind the plate this year, I would also be very reluctant to move Kyle Teel. The tools aren’t nearly as flashy as the other three, but Teel’s floor may be the highest. There are so few standout catchers in today’s game, and even if Teel only becomes a .270-average, 15-homer hitter, that would be extremely valuable should he continue improving his defense. There is certainly an argument for moving Kristian Campbell, as there are still questions about how his unique swing will translate to the show, but I couldn’t do it. His performance this year was just too special to trade for anything other than a proven ace.

I want to be clear here: I do not want to trade Marcelo Mayer. I still feel confident that he can be a first-division regular at the game’s premier position. However, there are a couple of things working against him:

1. He is a left-handed hitter, which, if you’re sensing a theme here, the Red Sox already have too many of.
2. The middle-infield is a place of depth for the Red Sox, with Trevor Story, Vaughn Grissom, Kristian Campbell, Nick Sogard, and Chase Meidroth likely in the mix for a big-league spot next season, and Franklin Arias and Yoelin Cespedes developing in the lower-minors.
3. For the second year in a row, Mayer ended the season on the IL, and he has still never topped 100 games in a season.

None of this means that Mayer needs to be moved, but it does raise enough questions about his future on the big-league team. So if an ace is available and a team is asking for one of the Big Four, I slightly lean towards including Mayer to finish the deal. 

If the Big Four are still in the organization, how many are opening with the big-league club?

All start in minors: 32%

More than one: 31%

Only Anthony: 21%

Only Campbell: 11%

My Vote: Only Anthony

In 2024, a 20-year-old Jackson Chourio, then the number three prospect in baseball, surprised everybody by making the Brewers opening-day roster. After some early struggles, he helped lead the team to a division title. Anthony will enter 2025 spring training at the same age and with the same prospect pedigree, and is even more of a polished product than Chourio was. There is nothing left for Anthony to prove at the Triple-A level, and I believe that the Red Sox will make room for him this offseason by trading Abreu.

I can see the argument for Campbell, but I think his September slump and season-ending injury will necessitate him needing a little more time in Worcester. The same goes for Kyle Teel, as I would much rather sign a defense-first veteran to compliment Wong than rush Teel to the big leagues. As for Marcelo Mayer, there is almost no chance the Red Sox put him on the Opening-Day roster without any time at Triple A. 

Average Grade of Craig Breslow

Average Vote: 5.1 

My Vote: 5.0

I think Red Sox fans are spot-on with this one. Breslow deserves tons of credit for a pitching staff that lowered its ERA by half a run and savvy acquisitions like Greg Weissert, Richard Fitts, Justin Slaten, and Tyler O’Neill. I also believe that Lucas Giolito would have been a great signing had he not gotten injured in spring training, something Breslow couldn’t have seen coming. At the end of the day, however, it’s a results-oriented business, and 81-81 just isn’t good enough. Though things might change down the road, the early returns on the Vaughn Grissom-Chris Sale trade are not pretty. The trade deadline was also an unmitigated disaster, with none of the four MLB players acquired contributing positive value. The real answer to a question like this is that it is too early to tell, but given the mixed results so far through the first year, I think 5 is a perfectly fine rating for Mr. Breslow. 

 

Dave O’Brien NESN Rating

Average Vote: 5.3

My Vote: 4

I actually think Dave O’Brien’s calls are pretty good, but vastly overrated by people who think the only way to be a good announcer is to scream. My issue with him is that his chemistry with his color guys isn’t great and he can be super vanilla.

Would you swap out Dave O’Brien for Mike Monoco as NESN’s play-by-play man?

Yes: 68%

No: 8%

Indifferent: 24%

My Vote: Yes

This is a pretty damning indictment of the NESN broadcast. Monaco is simply the better broadcaster who connects more with the younger fans. 

A year removed from the Chaim Bloom era, where do you stand now? 

Though it was good, looks better now: 27%

Thought it was good, still thinks the same: 31%

Thought it was good, now a bit worse: 3%

Thought it was bad, now looks a bit better: 21%

Thought it was bad, still think the same: 9%

Thought it was bad, now looks a little worse: 1%

My Vote: Thought it was good, now a bit worse

 

I presume the reason nearly half of the respondents said they think higher of Bloom’s tenure is the step forward the farm system took this season. The way I look at it, I can’t give Bloom too much credit for Teel and Mayer falling into their laps, and I give most of the credit for Anthony and Campbell’s progression to scouting director Devin Pearson and the minor league development team.

A GM (or Chief Baseball Officer, or whatever you'd like to call it) should be judged most harshly on their trades and free agent signings, and the past year has not been kind to Bloom in that respect. The big issue I have is with the Yoshida signing. This past season offered more evidence that Bloom wildly miscalculated Yoshida’s value, and I just don’t understand why Bloom thought that signing was a good idea with so many other left-handed hitting outfielders in the system. The bottom line is that Breslow’s job was made much harder by Bloom’s mistake, as he is now forced to pay $18 million a year to a light-hitting DH. 

Then there are the trades, or rather, the lack thereof.  How much better would the 2024 Red Sox have been if Bloom had pulled the trigger on a J.D. Martinez or Chris Sale trade at the 2022 deadline or picked a direction during the 2023 season? If you want to know why it seems like the Red Sox have been spinning in place for the last two years, you have to start by looking at the CBO who couldn’t make up his mind.

Should Wilyer Abreu be used in trade offers this winter?

Yes: 72%

No: 28%

My vote: Yes

The Red Sox' two biggest offensive issues in 2024 were an inability to hit left-handed pitching and a propensity for striking out. Well, Abreu struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances and had a .532 OPS against southpaws. This isn’t to say that Abreu isn’t a very good player. Most teams would kill for a 3.5 WAR season from a rookie. He’s just not the right player for this Red Sox team, and with Roman Anthony seemingly ready to go by Opening Day, Abreu should be at the forefront of deals to acquire starting pitching and balance the lineup. 

Should the Red Sox offer a $200 Million+ mega-contract to Corbin Burnes?

Yes: 28%

No: 62%

My Vote: No 

Look, we all agree that the Red Sox need an ace, and there are few more dependable pitchers than Corbin Burnes. Over the last four seasons, Burnes has posted a 2.94 ERA while averaging 189 innings and 214 strikeouts per season. The warning signs, however, are already there for the soon-to-be 30-year-old. His strikeout rate has dropped in each of the last four seasons, and though he will likely finish as runner-up for the AL Cy Young this year, he struck out a career-low 8.4 batters per inning and allowed a career-high 7.6 hits per nine innings. I don’t have any doubt that he can continue to be an ace-level pitcher for the next few years, but there are just too many red flags to commit to a David Price-level contract. 

How would you describe your passion for the Red Sox?

As strong as it ever was: 36%

Strong, but not near previous levels: 43%

Fading slowly and steadily: 12%

Level of apathy settling in: 6%

My vote: As strong as it ever was

The takeaway here should not be that I am as passionate as I ever was. I am in too deep. The bigger story should be that over 60% of fans say that their fandom is declining. These aren’t casual fans either: These are diehards who took the time to respond to a survey on a Red Sox fan account. If you lose these fans, there is  nobody left. Something needs to change. 

Triston Casas is four years away from free agency. Would you try to extend him?

Yes: 79%

No: 21%

My vote: Yes

Should Triston Casas be used in trades for starting pitching? 

Yes: 16%

No: 84%

My vote: No 

I am a firm believer that the best way to build an offense is to acquire and develop hitters who understand the strike zone. More than any other player in the Red Sox lineup, Triston Casas fits that description. Even when he was slumping after returning from injury, Casas never gave away an at-bat and never deviated from his plan at the plate. That is the kind of hitter you want to build your offense around. Unlike Abreu and Duran, the Red Sox don't have in-house options to replace Casas. The Red Sox don’t have anybody else on the major-league roster or any highly-rated prospects that can start every day at first base, and they certainly don’t have anybody who can match his combination of power and patience.

If the Red Sox believe they can acquire a pitcher who is an ace, or soon could be an ace, would you be ok with trading Jarren Duran?

Yes, that makes sense for the team: 37%

Hesitant yes: 36%

Probably no: 19%

Unavailable in Trade: 8%

My Vote: Probably No 

I think fans are underestimating how hard it is to develop a homegrown, controllable position player that is capable of an 8 WAR season. Since the turn of the century, the Red Sox have had just three such players: Jacoby Ellsbury, Mookie Betts, and Duran. I feel far more certain about Duran’s ability to maintain his elite production than Abreu or Rafaela. If the trade isn’t for a current, proven ace like Logan Gilbert, I am not pulling the trigger.

Ken Rosenthal suggested the Red Sox should trade Triston Casas and sign Alex Bregman.

Like the Idea: 9%

Hate the Idea: 91%

My Vote: Hate the idea

A couple quick reasons why this is a bad idea:

1. Triston Casas is a special hitter and a clubhouse leader.
2. Alex Bregman doesn’t solve the Red Sox problems against lefties because he is actually better against righties.
3. Bregman has not had a great offensive season since 2019.
4. There is no guarantee that Rafael Devers will be a good defensive first baseman.
5. You risk alienating Devers by signing someone to take his place.
6. Bregman has a big personality that might not mesh in the Red Sox clubhouse.
7. The Red Sox should devote their free-agent focus to pitching.

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[Bellhorn04]

I am largely in agreement with all of this.

Shocking how many folks would be willing to trade Duran for a pitcher when there are clearly other readily available ways to get one. 

[moonslav59]

Somehow, I missed this survey.

Like Bell, I'm surprised at the Duran trade number.

I don't see a contradiction in the idea on what we should do vs what we think we'll do.

I'd vote no on us going over $241M. Hell, I'd vote no on going over $211M.

My "ideal plan" would be to spend on pitching and make some small trades for more pitching or maybe a LHB-RHB swap.

I would not offer a QO to anyone and think trading Yoshida would be good, but we won't find a deal worth it. (that's not a choice offered.)

Who "should" DH? 90 games Casas and 72 games Devers (They play 1B when not DH'ing.) Wong should get the bulk of catching duties with someone like D Jansen on a 1 year deal, until Teel is ready.

I'd say the FT CF job is Rafaela's to lose. I'd try Whitlock as the closer, first.

Big 4 traded? I'd go with Mayer. I think 1 top prospect breaks camp with the big team: Anthony. (Abreu gets traded to make room in the OF.) The others will be delayed to gain an extra year.

I'd give Brez a 5. We won't sign Burnes. My passion for the Sox has not wained.

Do not sign Bregman. Trade Casas only for pitching and to move Devers to 1B. Play Campbell, Mayer or Grissom-Meidroth at 3B. (not a choice)

My feelings on Bloom were meh ("bad") and have improved a little after watching some of his players/prospects do better.