Not a popular stance .Extend JBJ 3 years 21 million

[Slasher9]

Think Juan Lagares will cost less in free agency than Bradley will in arbitration? What about Cameron Maybin? Billy Hamilton? Jarrod Dyson? Peter Bourjos? Austin Jackson?

 

These are just free agent options. There may be others available via trade.

 

If the goal is solely to save money (for a luxury tax penalty reset?), the Sox might wind up with a lesser all-around player in CF, but some of those players are still good defenders. Or are we going to continue to pretend we live in a world where JBJ is the only player in MLB history who could play defense in CF?

 

yes, i am going to pretend that JBj is the only player in MLB who can play defense in CF.

or i can just pretend we can get a million other guys for pennies that can play elite defense.

not much difference in the fantasies....

[moonslav59]

And I'm not trying to be a pain the ass about it, but it would be cool to see a list of available guys with:

 

1) Estimated 2020 salary.

2) 2019 UZR/150 or some other defensive rating.

 

It's hard to estimate salaries for FAs, but it's pretty safe to say some will be 1/3 or less the cost of JBJ's arb estimate of $9.5 to $11M.

 

Here are the 3 year UZR/150 numbers of some guys mentioned with their ranking listed among the 57 CF'ers with 800+ innings in CF that are FAs or maybe available through trade:

 

5. Hamilton 10.0 (double JBJ's UZR/150)

8. Lagares 8.7

9. Dyson 8.3

12. K Broxton 6.5

13. L Martin 6.2

15. M Margot 5.3

16. JBJ 4.9

18. DeShields 4.3

21. T Pham 3.0

28. Maybin 0.2

 

DRS

5. Hamilton 23

7. Margot 19

9. Lagares 18 (almost 1.3 the innings as JBJ)

10. DeShields 18

12. Dyson 17 (half the innings as JBJ)

14. JBJ 12

18. K Broxton 7 (half the innings)

19. L Martin 7 (almost 1/3)

 

[moonslav59]

With DD going out the door, this thread is moot. No more money will be thrown at JBJ. He is a goner

 

I'm guessing you are right, but maybe the next GM is Jackie Bradley Sr.

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to estimate salaries for FAs, but it's pretty safe to say some will be 1/3 or less the cost of JBJ's arb estimate of $9.5 to $11M.

 

Here are the 3 year UZR/150 numbers of some guys mentioned with their ranking listed among the 57 CF'ers with 800+ innings in CF that are FAs or maybe available through trade:

 

5. Hamilton 10.0 (double JBJ's UZR/150)

8. Lagares 8.7

9. Dyson 8.3

12. K Broxton 6.5

13. L Martin 6.2

15. M Margot 5.3

16. JBJ 4.9

18. DeShields 4.3

21. T Pham 3.0

28. Maybin 0.2

 

DRS

5. Hamilton 23

7. Margot 19

9. Lagares 18 (almost 1.3 the innings as JBJ)

10. DeShields 18

12. Dyson 17 (half the innings as JBJ)

14. JBJ 12

18. K Broxton 7 (half the innings)

19. L Martin 7 (almost 1/3)

 

 

Thanks moon. This is a good place to start.

 

Some of the guys on those lists are not FA's, of course.

[notin]

Thanks moon. This is a good place to start.

 

Some of the guys on those lists are not FA's, of course.

 

Only need one of them...

[notin]

yes, i am going to pretend that JBj is the only player in MLB who can play defense in CF.

or i can just pretend we can get a million other guys for pennies that can play elite defense.

not much difference in the fantasies....

 

I think the Sox can get an extremely good defensive CF like Keon Broxton for pennies. He won't hit much, but he has shown the occasional hot streak. Bat him ninth.

 

I would guess Juan Lagares would be in the $3-5million range in FA. Hamilton might be less. Cameron Maybin signed a minor league deal this past offseason...

[Slasher9]

Keon Broxton - not a FA.

Lagares - .670 OPS + negative dWAR

hamilton - has a mutual option for 2020 at $5+MM. if he doesnt pick it up then he expects more $$ + years. 2019 OPS of .519

maybin - negative dWAR player and might get paid for his offense and multiple year contract.

 

are these really your best picks for "elite defense CFer that will be available to us plus cheaper than JBj"????!!!??? if so, not so much.....

 

but yeah...let's go back to that "elite defense CFer that are inexpensive" forest and pluck some more???

[Bellhorn04]

Only need one of them...

 

Yes, but we want The List and we want it accurate as heck!

[notin]

Yes, but we want The List and we want it accurate as heck!

 

We're doing what we can

[moonslav59]

I said some were not free agents, but the ones that aren't will likely be available for cheap. Most were demoted, traded or benched last year.

As for Lagares' mutual option. Its's not a player option. He's not making anywhere near $5M next year.

[notin]

Keon Broxton - not a FA.

Lagares - .670 OPS + negative dWAR

hamilton - has a mutual option for 2020 at $5+MM. if he doesnt pick it up then he expects more $$ + years. 2019 OPS of .519

maybin - negative dWAR player and might get paid for his offense and multiple year contract.

 

are these really your best picks for "elite defense CFer that will be available to us plus cheaper than JBj"????!!!??? if so, not so much.....

 

but yeah...let's go back to that "elite defense CFer that are inexpensive" forest and pluck some more???

 

Lagares only played 600 innings in CF last year. Remember that whole "WAR people never site innings or games" rant of yours? You just did it.

Broxton isn't a free agent, but he has been released twice in the past season. Despite harmony's insistence he is in Seattle's future plans, I think he realizes they are far more likely to use Jake Fraley in CF and non-tender Broxton. He'll be available.

No one is picking up Hamilton's option.

Maybin - playing time issue. 322 innings in CF. You did it twice in one post. Like Lagares, throughout his career, Maybin has put up good defensive numbers. The big problem with Maybin, and the thing that will keep anyone from giving him a multiyear deal is his questionable health history. And any team that does give him a multiyear deal won't give him an expensive one. If he gets more than 2 years $8mill (total), I'll be surprised.

 

And there are lots of others, some might need to be acquired via trade. Roman Quinn in Philly has no place to play. The Cubs have an overload of outfielders in MLB, although not great defensive ones. And for all the complaining about Benintendi's defense in CF, it wouldn't surprise me is the Sox moved him over and acquired a LF anyway. I wouldn't do that because you probably wind up with an offensive gamble in LF, which is less likely to pay off than just getting a weak-hitting CF who can field.

 

The Sox had centerfielders for decades before Bradley. They'll find another one...

[moonslav59]

Keon Broxton - not a FA.

Lagares - .670 OPS + negative dWAR

hamilton - has a mutual option for 2020 at $5+MM. if he doesnt pick it up then he expects more $$ + years. 2019 OPS of .519

maybin - negative dWAR player and might get paid for his offense and multiple year contract.

 

are these really your best picks for "elite defense CFer that will be available to us plus cheaper than JBj"????!!!??? if so, not so much.....

 

but yeah...let's go back to that "elite defense CFer that are inexpensive" forest and pluck some more???

 

My list was long and included some worse but still plus UZR players as requested. I never said all were elite defenders, but you only mentioned 3.

There are clearly 3 or more elite defenders acailable at less than half JBJs cost

[notin]

I said some were not free agents, but the ones that aren't will likely be available for cheap. Most were demoted, traded or benched last year.

As for Lagares' mutual option. Its's not a player option. He's not making anywhere near $5M next year.

 

Reportedly the Mets have wanted to get rid of him for years...

[notin]

My list was long and included some worse but still plus UZR players as requested. I never said all were elite defenders, but you only mentioned 3.

There are clearly 3 or more elite defenders acailable at less than half JBJs cost

 

I know. I also know it is not going to be my job to find his replacement. I'm just a guy predicting the Sox can't afford to offer him arbitration...

[moonslav59]

I know. I also know it is not going to be my job to find his replacement. I'm just a guy predicting the Sox can't afford to offer him arbitration...

 

I'm the guy predicting we offer him arb and trade him or trade him before arb offers.

[notin]

I'm the guy predicting we offer him arb and trade him or trade him before arb offers.

 

Hey if they could extend him to some cheaper contract, I'd be all for it. I just don't see it happening..

[moonslav59]

Hey if they could extend him to some cheaper contract, I'd be all for it. I just don't see it happening..

 

Even if he'd take $15M/3, I doubt we'd do it.

 

(I would, if we could still find a way to reset in 2020.)

[Bellhorn04]

Swiharts Ghost's offer is not unreasonable.

[notin]

Swiharts Ghost's offer is not unreasonable.

 

It's not unreasonable. It might not be affordable, either, barring something drastic, like JD opting out or dealing Betts. Of those two options, dealing Betts is far more likely in my opinion (which might be worthless on the subject)...

[notin]

Also worth pointing out that, while a 3yr/$21mill offer is not unreasonable, why would JBJ accept it?

 

If he can make $10mill in arbitration, he would only need a 2 yr/$12mill offer in free agency to come out ahead. And he probably wants to be locked up longer than 3 years, which is more likely after 2020 than after 2022...

[Slasher9]

I know. I also know it is not going to be my job to find his replacement. I'm just a guy predicting the Sox can't afford to offer him arbitration...

 

my issue is with you and moon stating that elite defense in CF is found everywhere and easy to replace. i asked both of you for names and none of them passed the smell test. sure there are a lot of "ifs" you guys are proposoing...if this contract isn't picked up....if we can trade a bag of baseballs for him....if team xyz releases him....since we are "iffing"....how about if JBj is only offered $5MM in arb....or how about if we dont offer arb and simply sign JBj for $6MM.....but maybe we can pry the final 3 years of team control of broxton from seattle and we can watch how that sub .500 ops and 0 dWAR (in 100 games) impresses all the JBj haters.

[Bellhorn04]

Also worth pointing out that, while a 3yr/$21mill offer is not unreasonable, why would JBJ accept it?

 

If he can make $10mill in arbitration, he would only need a 2 yr/$12mill offer in free agency to come out ahead. And he probably wants to be locked up longer than 3 years, which is more likely after 2020 than after 2022...

 

It's a bit odd that we pretty much know in advance that JBJ's arb award will be too high.

 

But the real question is, how much could he realistically expect to get in free agency if we non-tender him?

[moonslav59]

A look at the numbers:

 

UZR/150

17.1

0.2

8.1

3.5

8.8

-0.1

 

DRS

15

3

11

10

-2

4

 

OPS

.617

.531

.832

.835

.726

.717

.730

 

He turns 30 in about 7 months.

 

I don't expect his defense to decline, too much, but it might decline some (more).

 

He seems to have leveled off at about .720-.730, but that may decline.

 

I'm thinking $15M/3 is about the best offer he might get as a FA this winter (which he's not).

 

[moonslav59]

my issue is with you and moon stating that elite defense in CF is found everywhere and easy to replace. i asked both of you for names and none of them passed the smell test. sure there are a lot of "ifs" you guys are proposoing...if this contract isn't picked up....if we can trade a bag of baseballs for him....if team xyz releases him....since we are "iffing"....how about if JBj is only offered $5MM in arb....or how about if we dont offer arb and simply sign JBj for $6MM.....but maybe we can pry the final 3 years of team control of broxton from seattle and we can watch how that sub .500 ops and 0 dWAR (in 100 games) impresses all the JBj haters.

 

I didn't say "everywhere." I specifically said with an offense near .600.

 

There are 3+ names that will clearly be available for way less money, and if traded for, should cost peanuts.

 

My point was ONLY about defense.

 

Plus, why is dWAR the only evidence you use? JBJ's dWAR is just 0.8, this year and was 0.4 his GG year.

[notin]

It's a bit odd that we pretty much know in advance that JBJ's arb award will be too high.

 

But the real question is, how much could he realistically expect to get in free agency if we non-tender him?

 

No idea.

 

AJ Pollock got 4 years $60mill. Pollock is a much better player, but also has serious injury concern. Bradley was worth slightly more (5.0 fWAR to 4.8 fWAR) in 2017-18, but with an 52 game advantage in playing time as well. Bradley would also be 2 years younger if he was a free agent this year.

 

But Pollock is also viewed as a guy who can bat anywhere from 1st to 6th, where as Bradley is a clear bottom-of-the-order fixture.

 

I would suspect Bradley gets less than Pollock, but how much less? His agent (one Scott Boras) is undoubtedly aware of the fWAR numbers...

[Slasher9]

theres that "if" again.

who are the 3 players again?

also, dWAR isnt my only evidence. dWAR can suck it.

we can go with my eyetest. i have watched every catch and throw of every MLB, AA, and AAA CFer for the entire season. JBj is easily the best.

there is no hoard of AAA CFers that are "just as good" defensively as JBj. there is no magic "elite defender forest".

[notin]

my issue is with you and moon stating that elite defense in CF is found everywhere and easy to replace. i asked both of you for names and none of them passed the smell test. sure there are a lot of "ifs" you guys are proposoing...if this contract isn't picked up....if we can trade a bag of baseballs for him....if team xyz releases him....since we are "iffing"....how about if JBj is only offered $5MM in arb....or how about if we dont offer arb and simply sign JBj for $6MM.....but maybe we can pry the final 3 years of team control of broxton from seattle and we can watch how that sub .500 ops and 0 dWAR (in 100 games) impresses all the JBj haters.

 

If JBJ is offered only $5mill in arbitration, the two sides will not agree and the Sox will lose the hearing.

 

In arbitration cases, each side submits a figure, and an independent arbiter decides which of the two salaries the player deserves. He chooes one of the two offers, not some third number comprimise. If the Sox offer $5mill, Scott Boras will counter with $12mill. Then the arbiter will definitely decide the $12mill salary is the one Jackie deserves, because Bradley is going to get paid closer to AJ Pollock than he is to Jon Jay.

 

If the Sox don't offer arbitration, then Jackie is a free agent. That's how it works. And Boras knows JBJ can get a better deal in free agency than that, and he will advise Bradley accordingly. And Bradley didn't hire Boras so he could ignore his advice.

 

That is how those "ifs" will play out...

[notin]

theres that "if" again.

who are the 3 players again?

also, dWAR isnt my only evidence. dWAR can suck it.

we can go with my eyetest. i have watched every catch and throw of every MLB, AA, and AAA CFer for the entire season. JBj is easily the best.

there is no hoard of AAA CFers that are "just as good" defensively as JBj. there is no magic "elite defender forest".

 

If this was actually true, you would know the Sox cannot afford him and have any hope of reset unless they deal Mookie.

 

And certainly makes your scenario of offering him $5mill or $6mill utility infielder money look even sillier...

[dgalehouse]

Barring a dramatic turn around over the next three weeks , I think a number of players , including JBJ , are in jeopardy of being moved in a thorough house cleaning .

[moonslav59]

my issue is with you and moon stating that elite defense in CF is found everywhere and easy to replace. i asked both of you for names and none of them passed the smell test. sure there are a lot of "ifs" you guys are proposoing...if this contract isn't picked up....if we can trade a bag of baseballs for him....if team xyz releases him....since we are "iffing"....how about if JBj is only offered $5MM in arb....or how about if we dont offer arb and simply sign JBj for $6MM.....but maybe we can pry the final 3 years of team control of broxton from seattle and we can watch how that sub .500 ops and 0 dWAR (in 100 games) impresses all the JBj haters.

 

Keon Broxton was waived this year. He hit .469 after the trade. If you think we'll have to give up a lot to trade for him, I can't argue anything more.

 

Funny how his weak hitting is okay with you, but Hamilton's is not.

 

You neglect Dyson who is a FA this year, and had a DWAR of 0.9 and 0.7 the last two years (cumulative stats with less innings than JBJ). He will not get $9-11M at 35 years old. He is as good a defender as JBJ.

 

Billy Hamilton was waived this year. You think he'll make big bucks this winter? His mutual option hasd a $1M buy out. No way the Braves pay him $7.5M, but keep believing they will, so you can make your point.

 

Hamilton's career OPS: .623. He turned 29 today.

Dyson's career OPS is .660. He turned 35 just a few days ago.

Leony's Martin does have a -0.3 dWAR this year, but it was 1.3 last year, which is almost as much as JBJ's 2018+2019 dWAR. He's a career .668 hitter and turns 32 in March. He was released by the Guardians this year.

Okay, maybe Lagares won't be available, but here are 3 guys with an OPS between 50-100 lower than JBJ. All are equal or better fielders. All cost way, way less.

 

We aren't winning. next year, so why care about a 75 point drop in CF OPS- maybe?

 

JBJ's career OPS is .725, and he turns 30 next April.