6/20 Red Sox @ Kansas City

[iortiz]

There is not a shred of evidence that they meddled with his approach. His k ratio in 2013 was almost identical to this season. It improved from 5.5 to 7 and along with that increase, he lowered his WHIP and ERA significantly. He dropped down to a 5.7 k rate last season and is back up to 7 thus season, but this time it didn't come along with an improvement in his other numbers.

 

The meddling argument is a baseless rationalization to avoid the fact that he just isn't very good. That is why we got him for Cespedes. Top of the rotation pitchers don't get traded for the likes of Cespedes.

Bingo!

 

It is not about his approach. It is not about his age. It is not about Farrell.

 

He simply is not a good pitcher.

[a700hitter]

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Bingo!

 

It is not about his approach. It is not about his age. It is not about Farrell.

 

He simply is not a good pitcher.

 

He's a 4 or 5. We have three other guys for those slots. We have no #1 or 2. It is even shaky to say that we have a #3. This was pretty clear when the season started. None of the 5 guys were stepping up an throwing well in the Spring.

[iortiz]

He's a 4 or 5. We have three other guys for those slots. We have no #1 or 2. It is even shaky to say that we have a #3. This was pretty clear when the season started. None of the 5 guys were stepping up an throwing well in the Spring.

 

Seems like this is going to be the worst rotation not only in the last 10 Y but probably in the history of this franchise.

[Kimmi]

Agreed, but it is the best barometer that we have. Projecting Porcello as a top of the rotation guy was little more than hope. He had a good statistical season in 2014, but his stuff was the same.

 

No, career stats are not the best barometer we have. Not for a young pitcher who is entering his prime.

 

Porcello's stuff has been about the same, until this year, and his stuff says that he should have an ERA in the neighborhood of 3.7.

[iortiz]

No, career stats are not the best barometer we have. Not for a young pitcher who is entering his prime.

 

Porcello's stuff has been about the same, until this year, and his stuff says that he should have an ERA in the neighborhood of 3.7.

That neighborhood seems to be in South America LOL!

[a700hitter]

No, career stats are not the best barometer we have. Not for a young pitcher who is entering his prime.

 

Porcello's stuff has been about the same, until this year, and his stuff says that he should have an ERA in the neighborhood of 3.7.

 

I'll take what you say as a given about Porcello and counter that even at that level our staff would be bad because the staff as a whole would still have an ERA around 4. That is not mediocre. It is bad.

[Kimmi]

And you still projecting those numbers based on one year only.

 

Thus far, 4.4 is closer to 5+ than your 3.5 drum.

 

Actually, I'm not. I'm looking at a 3 year trend in his xFIP, not ERA, and also factoring in his age and what was supposed to be an improved defense playing behind him.

[iortiz]

No, career stats are not the best barometer we have. Not for a young pitcher who is entering his prime.

 

Porcello's stuff has been about the same, until this year, and his stuff says that he should have an ERA in the neighborhood of 3.7.

 

 

Yup, Porcello's stuff is about the same asaide 2014. It is in the neighborhood of 4.5+. This year is confirming that thus far.

[Palodios]

Do you really think that he will improve from 5+ to 3.8 just because he is going to use more his sinker?

 

Do you really think Porcello is a 5 ERA pitcher ? To a700's original point, he's been a 4.30 ERA guy his entire career, why would he suddenly become a 5 ERA pitcher and stay there?

[Kimmi]

There also aren't many example of pitchers who entered the majors at age 20, either.

 

Cliff Lee took several seasons to become an ace. Scherzer had one great season in the middle of a few mediocre seasons before emerging as a #1. Liriano took a long ass time to finally put up back-to-back good seasons together. John Lackey didn't emerge as the #2 horse until his 4th season in the majors, at age 27.

 

I was going to mention the same thing, that not many pitchers are pitching at the MLB level at such a young age.

 

Good post.

[Kimmi]

This year he is done. By these days, next year he will be 27 and a half, right?. So.. To me his 30s are around the corner and he has not showed nothing to call him good pitcher.

 

This post is a bit of a stretch, in more ways than one.

[a700hitter]

Do you really think Porcello is a 5 ERA pitcher ? To a700's original point, he's been a 4.30 ERA guy his entire career, why would he suddenly become a 5 ERA pitcher and stay there?

He is not a 5+ ERA pitcher, but even if he makes the jump to 3.8, that is not good enough to be a top of the rotation pitcher. That is precisely why it was a bad move to rely on him to anchor our staff. Even in the best case scenario, he is not good enough.

[Kimmi]

You said that those pitchers peaked later in his careers. I got it.

 

what I'm saying is that those pitchers you named had pretty good stuff to believe in that improve at their late 20s.

 

Do you really think that he will improve from 5+ to 3.8 just because he is going to use more his sinker?

 

If that were that easy, he could have improved so many weeks ago, don't you think?

 

Going back to being a sinkerball pitcher is not that easy. Throwing the 4 seamer more often apparently messed up his release point, which is causing him to keep balls up in the zone. He has been working on getting that release point back.

 

And yes, I do think he can be a 3.8 pitcher using his sinker more, if he can get that effectiveness back. He did it last year when he had an improved defense behind him, and his FIP has been in that neighborhood. What is so unreasonable about that notion?

[Kimmi]

There is not a shred of evidence that they meddled with his approach. His k ratio in 2013 was almost identical to this season. It improved from 5.5 to 7 and along with that increase, he lowered his WHIP and ERA significantly. He dropped down to a 5.7 k rate last season and is back up to 7 thus season, but this time it didn't come along with an improvement in his other numbers.

 

The meddling argument is a baseless rationalization to avoid the fact that he just isn't very good. That is why we got him for Cespedes. Top of the rotation pitchers don't get traded for the likes of Cespedes.

 

There is definitely proof that Porcello has altered his approach though. Regardless of the reason for altering that approach, it does seem to be the reason why he has been hit hard this season.

[Palodios]

He is not a 5+ ERA pitcher, but even if he makes the jump to 3.8, that is not good enough to be a top of the rotation pitcher. That is precisely why it was a bad move to rely on him to anchor our staff. Even in the best case scenario, he is not good enough.

 

The best case scenario was for him to improve ahead of the 3.43 ERA, 204ish innings from 2014. At age 25, I didn't think that was completely unreasonable, but hey, things don't always work out.

 

The Red Sox need to get an ace, put Eduardo onto an innings limit this year, and hope that pushing Porcello back to a sinkerballer will get him back into being a #3 type pitcher for 2016.

[iortiz]

Actually, I'm not. I'm looking at a 3 year trend in his xFIP, not ERA, and also factoring in his age and what was supposed to be an improved defense playing behind him.

 

I wouldn't use xFIP in Porcello. I would use SIERA since it considers batted balls. As long as I recall Steamer projected something in the low 4s. Actually his SIERA throughout 6 years is in the low 4s reason why I was willing to bet with you.

 

Anyways, IMO he is never going to post something around 3.7 and much more less in every year of his remaining contract in Boston. I'm willing to bet my sign again year after year with you to make it interesting, unless you want to bet something else.

[Kimmi]

I'll take what you say as a given about Porcello and counter that even at that level our staff would be bad because the staff as a whole would still have an ERA around 4. That is not mediocre. It is bad.

 

The staff is currently very bad. There is no argument there. But as I've posted a few times already, 4 out of 5 of our starters have pitched at career worst ERA levels. There was no reason to expect that, not only from Porcello, but also from Masterson, Miley, and Kelly. If the starters were pitching close to their level of expectation overall, this staff would be mediocre, even slightly above average.

[Kimmi]

I wouldn't use xFIP in Porcello. I would use SIERA since it considers batted balls. As long as I recall Steamer projected something in the low 4s. Actually his SIERA throughout 6 years is in the low 4s reason why I was willing to bet with you.

 

Anyways, IMO he is never going to post something around 3.7 and much more less in every year of his remaining contract in Boston. I'm willing to bet my sign again year after year with you to make it interesting, unless you want to bet something else.

 

Again, by looking at his career numbers, you are not taking into account that pitchers do tend to improve as they enter their prime years. Porcello's SIERA in the last 3 years is 4.07, 3.31, and 3.88. And this year? It's 3.99. An ERA that far off of his SIERA is not sustainable.

[iortiz]

Do you really think Porcello is a 5 ERA pitcher ? To a700's original point, he's been a 4.30 ERA guy his entire career, why would he suddenly become a 5 ERA pitcher and stay there?

 

I think he is something around 4.5 (No. 4 type).

 

Trying to answer your question, Unlikely DET, he will face tougher offenses in the ALE ike Toronto, NYY , Baltimore and even TBR who are not that easy. Also, Fenway will not help him since everybody make him contact. Playing defense is not easy in Fenway, mostly if you have already locked out a guy like Panda playing 3B and Hanley LF. And finally he will always depend on his defense since he has a horrible K/9.

 

When you mix all of the above, here you have the results.

[iortiz]

Again, by looking at his career numbers, you are not taking into account that pitchers do tend to improve as they enter their prime years. Porcello's SIERA in the last 3 years is 4.07, 3.31, and 3.88. And this year? It's 3.99. An ERA that far off of his SIERA is not sustainable.

 

His SIERA this year looks like his career SIERA. 4... And you have to take it with a grain of salt. His HR/FB rate has been likely the same (even below) when he posted his best WAR number (2.8) in 2013. Also he has the same K/9 (even below) of that year. His BB/9 is also likely the same. In the end there is no reason to think that he is going to post a 3.7 or so constantly in the next 4 years when he posted 4.3 ERA in his best WAR year.

[Kimmi]

His SIERA this year looks like his career SIERA. 4... And you have to take it with a grain of salt. His HR/FB rate has been likely the same (even below) when he posted his best WAR number (2.8) in 2013. Also he has the same K/9 (even below) of that year. His BB/9 is also likely the same. In the end there is no reason to think that he is going to post a 3.7 or so constantly in the next 4 years when he posted 4.3 ERA in his best WAR year.

 

Porcello is having a bad year so far - no one is denying that. Even with that, his ERA should not be 5.61, based on his peripherals. It should be somewhere around 4, and that's when he's having his career worst year.

 

That aside, I think you and others underestimate just how bad Detroit's defense was, causing Porcello's ERA to be consistently higher than his FIP. In 2013, for instance, league average BABIP on ground balls was .245. Porcello's BABIP on ground balls was .260. For a pitcher whose ground ball rate was 55.3% that year, that's like a death sentencs.

 

Also, Porcello's defense adjusted ERA from 2012-2014 was 3.74. If he had an average defense playing behind him during those years, he would look like a much different pitcher.

[a700hitter]

Porcello is having a bad year so far - no one is denying that. Even with that, his ERA should not be 5.61, based on his peripherals. It should be somewhere around 4, and that's when he's having his career worst year.

 

That aside, I think you and others underestimate just how bad Detroit's defense was, causing Porcello's ERA to be consistently higher than his FIP. In 2013, for instance, league average BABIP on ground balls was .245. Porcello's BABIP on ground balls was .260. For a pitcher whose ground ball rate was 55.3% that year, that's like a death sentencs.

 

Also, Porcello's defense adjusted ERA from 2012-2014 was 3.74. If he had an average defense playing behind him during those years, he would look like a much different pitcher.

Scherzer, Verlander and Anibel Sanchez all prospered with that same defense.

 

Also, Doug Fister did very well with that defense behind him. Lots of excuses are being made for Porcello and Cherrington's misplaced faith and investment in him.

Edited June 23, 2015 by a700hitter

[SoxnCycles]

Porcello is having a bad year so far - no one is denying that. Even with that, his ERA should not be 5.61, based on his peripherals. It should be somewhere around 4, and that's when he's having his career worst year.

 

That aside, I think you and others underestimate just how bad Detroit's defense was, causing Porcello's ERA to be consistently higher than his FIP. In 2013, for instance, league average BABIP on ground balls was .245. Porcello's BABIP on ground balls was .260. For a pitcher whose ground ball rate was 55.3% that year, that's like a death sentencs.

 

Also, Porcello's defense adjusted ERA from 2012-2014 was 3.74. If he had an average defense playing behind him during those years, he would look like a much different pitcher.

 

Give it up Kimmi.

 

You're just going to get another version of "Porcello sucks, the contract sucks, the FO sucks" ad nauseum.

[Kimmi]

Give it up Kimmi.

 

You're just going to get another version of "Porcello sucks, the contract sucks, the FO sucks" ad nauseum.

 

Somebody has to defend our team. Yankees fans sure aren't going to do it. LOL

[a700hitter]

Somebody has to defend our team. Yankees fans sure aren't going to do it. LOL

sometimes there is no defense and defending the indefensible just looks like homerism.

[Kimmi]

sometimes there is no defense and defending the indefensible just looks like homerism.

 

There is plenty of defense.

 

Please point out something that I've posted in defense of the team that is wrong.

[SoxnCycles]

Somebody has to defend our team. Yankees fans sure aren't going to do it. LOL

 

True!

 

LOL

 

People don't like "homerism" but "whiny" is perfectly ok.

[a700hitter]

There is plenty of defense.

 

Please point out something that I've posted in defense of the team that is wrong.

i am not questioning your statistics. They are just not an excuse for Porcello's or the team's performance. It would be like a lawyer defending his client against an assault charge be arguing to the jury that his client missed his morning coffee, missed his train and was going to be late for work and would lose his job as a defense for slugging the victim when he bumped into him. All the fact are accurate, but the defense isn't valid.

 

Porcello is not a victim of bad defenses and worse luck on both the Tigers and the Red Sox. As pointed out, Verlander, Scherzer, Anibel Sanchez, and Doug Fister all had success with the Tigers. Porcello was the #4 guy on those staffs because that is where he belonged. They all had the same team behind them.

[User Name]

My eyes hurt reading some of this stuff.