Let's talk catchers

[Dojji]

Do you think this team needs a new professional free agent catcher, or do we think Cristian Vazquez is the wave of the future behind the dish?

 

Let's call a spade a spade, and a bad hitter a bad hitter. Cristian Vazquez will never be the big thunder in the middle of the lineup, and he may never even get on base all that much. His arm is coming through, he's an amazing defensive backstop, but is that enough on its own to make a good catcher of a player who will, not probably but definitely, struggle offensively for most if not all of his career? If not, what are the alternatives?

 

Finding a good hitting catcher is enough that my opinion is that Vazquez may save more runs than he costs us, especially as he matures as a leader and game-caller. I want to know if anyone else has seen something in Vazquez's game that's a bigger cause for concern or whether some fans think he should be paired with an offense guy like a Salty type.

 

My personal opinion is that the Cardinals won the World Series with pre-breakout Yadier Molina in 2006, and the Royals are riding Salvador Perez, who has some stick but is mostly a D guy, into the World Series. Players with supremely defensive catchers are disproportionately represented in the playoffs and tend to play above their level if they can get there with the offense they can obtain at other positions, as long as the catcher defends at the elite level he's capable of.

 

Vazquez won't hit as well as either of those two, but the primary thing they have in common is the laser cannon attached to their right shoulders, and he could learn to maybe hit just enough not to be a liability while yielding that caliber of D. If that can happen, I think that the starting catcher's job is his to lose, even on a team that favors finding ways to squeeze offense out of premium defensive positions. If traditional team prejudices win out though, we may wind up trying to work with Lavarnway or Swihart and finding a home for Vazquez in the National League by trade. I'd consider that a mistake, since I think the kid's developed nicely and his strengths are extremely valuable.

 

As long as he throws out 50% of would be base stealers, or his CS% only drops because the rate of players trying to steal on his arm goes down like it did for Perez and Y. Molina, that skill is valuable enough that I'd be willing to trade 10 HR's a year from the catcher spot for it easily. Controlling the running game will take a lot of runs off the board over the course of the year, maybe even enough to make up for an offensive deficit, especially as he combines that natural talent with learning how to better control other areas of the defensive game. This kid is worth giving a lot of playing time to to see how far his defensive game can come.

Edited October 21, 2014 by Dojji

[BSN07]

Vasquez should get a shot next season. If only too try and increase his trade value when Swihart is deemed ready. The only need a back up for next season. Preferably LHH.

[Palodios]

Bradley wasn't exactly a fan favorite last year, and Iggy only lasted a few months before being traded away. Glove-only players don't last long in this organization. I'm expecting Russel Martin, or Evan Gattis here next year with CV as backup.

[Spudboy]

I think Vasquez will be the starting catcher in 2015. The Sox don't perceive a need to upgrade now.

 

There are two assumptions that I do not understand or agree with. 1.) Vasquez will never hit and only be a defensive catcher. 2.) Vasquez is here only as a place holder for Swilhart.

 

This is all conjecture and foolish at that. No one here knows with certainty that Vasquez will never hit. And no one knows that Swilhart is the blend of both offense and defense that will enable him to be number one catcher in Boston going forward.

 

I do see some room for improvement defensively for Vasquez. He allows too many pitches in the dirt to get behind him and he makes some unwise throws to first.

I also see him having good at bats most of the time. I do not believe that is is a forgone conclusion that he will not develop into a decent hitter.

[Dojji]

Vazquez' track record suggests minimal power and only adequate-at-best plate discipline. Him learning to hit is a distinct uphill struggle because he's never demonstrated a serious mastery of the art in the minors.

 

Now there is a precedent -- Yadi Molina's minor league numbers look a lot like Christian's. But Yadi beat some serious odds learning to hit the way he did. I just think we need to count on Vazquez's glove and let whatever offense happens to happen be a pleasant surprise based on experience and adjustments at the plate. And even in the early years, Yadi would run into one more often than Vazquez has so far.

 

A light hitting catcher with a semi decent OBP is the offensive ceiling I see from Vazquez -- a shortstop bat with a top of the line glove is acceptable to me.

[sk7326]

Vasquez will start somewhere - if it's not Boston it is because Swihart is the answer. Glove-only is an issue at a lot of positions, but the replacement level for catcher is so poor that Vasquez really only has to be a .250/.300/.400 sort to be a solid starter assuming his defense holds. We are in a much more run-poor environment than we have been so quality run prevention is still very valuable. Up the contact rate a little bit, he'll be fine. He needs to get up to "average" to be an all-star, but he has clear "everyday catcher" promise.

[Spudboy]

There is power and there is power. Vasquez may not have shown HR power to date but he has shown the ability to hit doubles.

 

He was brought up out of need not because he was a finished product wasting away in AAA. I think that he just has to hit .230 and with an OBP at or slightly above .300 to be worth throwing out there everyday while he makes his chops with the bat. We could do much worse than to have him as our starting catcher.

 

I don't see the Sox making a long term commitment to someone like Russell ( who is likely going to get 3/27 -3/33 or more ) and who is on the wrong side of thirty years old.

 

Two years ago David Ross was seen as the premiere back-up catcher in MLB. He is older and has had some unfortunate injury issues. And he is Mendoza level at the plate. Still, he loves it here, wants to come back and can occasionally run into one. His maturity and knowledge can only be a good thing for a team stocked with so many young pitchers and fledgling catchers.

 

The Sox have depth in AAA with Lavarnway, Butler, and the highly regarded Swilhart. If Ross will sign for one year at a minimal contract I say bring him back until Swilhart has shown that he can hit consistently in AAA. I say let Swilhart stay in Pawtucket through 2015 and avoid bringing him up too early.

[Dojji]

A .700 OPS is actually really good offensive numbers for a catcher.

 

This year CV was .240/.308/.309. There is no power there and precious little potential for any. The fact that he's a catcher doesn't make him Doug Mirabelli. This man is not in any way shape form or means going to hit for any kind of power at all, ever.

 

He's not going to slug .400. Ever. His career slugging in the minors is .392. He never slugged over .400 at the AA level or higher, no matter the sample size. Power is just not part of his makeup as a player. He can't do it to save his life unless he gets a lot better at hitting line drive doubles.

 

What he can do is hit for a bit of average and get on base a little. He may be able to refine those skillsets into a decent gap hitter in the later-years Jason Kendall mold. A guy who can put up a good at bat, dink some singles and plug a few gap doubles. If he ever develops into a really good hitter, it'll be based on that combination of skills, and even there he doesn't have the gap to gap power of a Pedroia, or the speed to really exploit gap hitting well.

 

If Christian learns to hit, what you're going to get is a guy with a decent BA with on base and slugging both in the mid .300's and an OPS in the upper .600's. I'd call that adequate, if he can get there, and with some experience that's a level he can attain.

Edited October 21, 2014 by Dojji

[sk7326]

Looking at his minor league numbers, Vasquez has seemed to be able to (after working through promotion) provide some decent on base skills. He's no 2007 Albert Pujols or anything, but he has the potential to be a .320-.330 on base which combined with an All-Star Glove would make him a clear above average starting catcher.

 

Swihart's ceiling is clearly higher, but Vasquez is very likely to have a strong career playing baseball for a living.

[seabeachfred]

Looking at his minor league numbers, Vasquez has seemed to be able to (after working through promotion) provide some decent on base skills. He's no 2007 Albert Pujols or anything, but he has the potential to be a .320-.330 on base which combined with an All-Star Glove would make him a clear above average starting catcher.

 

Swihart's ceiling is clearly higher, but Vasquez is very likely to have a strong career playing baseball for a living.

 

There are many scouts and baseball people through the game that have likened Blake Swihart to Buster Posey. That should be enough for the Red Sox to get their heads out of their asses and make damn sure that, ONE, they do not trade him, and TWO, that he becomes their catcher when he is ready, and Three, if not that find a spot for him in the infield (1B or 3B). I would take number two. We can talk all we want about defense and how we can carry a batter or two who hits poorly because the other people will hit. That is pure unadulterated ********!!!!. We only have to look at this past season when we were talking the same tune. What happened? Bradley was prime horseshit, Bogaerts was lousy and ineffective, AJ was a disaster and Gomes didn't hit and Shane was hurt. You pack as many hitters as you can in the lineup and if for no other reason it might be wise to do this because there is no guarantee that Cherington is going to be able to get those two solid pitchers we need. Most likely he will screw things up badly again just as he did after 2011 and 2013. We may need all the offense we can get....hitters who can hit for average, some with ability to steal bases as well, some to hit with some power, and some who can hit with men on base. Swihart and Cecchini must be given spots when they are ready. My fear is that the front office has turned gun shy with young players because of how s***** Bradley and Bogaerts were this year. IMHO, Blake and Garin couldn't be as crappy as Bradley was if they tried to hit blindfolded, and pray that Bogaerts turns out to be the player the Red Sox envisioned and not the choker I believe we may have on our hands. I'd love to be proven wrong on that one.

[Spudboy]

The best thing for both Swilhart and Cechini is to remain in Pawtucket through 2015 or until they have developed the ability to hit consistently at the AAA level. As of now they are just two more prospects. The proof is in the pudding.

[jacksonianmarch]

Couple things. Vazquez does not have the ceiling of an above average catcher. He's a floor of a backup due to his defensive abilities and a ceiling of a weaker offensive starting catcher. Nobody should expect anything offensively out of him, but he does have great defensive capabilities. Swihart hasn't been likened to Buster Posey, cmon now. Posey is an MVP caliber backstop. This kid looks like you above average to all star ceiling catcher, but let's not get carried away here

[seabeachfred]

Couple things. Vazquez does not have the ceiling of an above average catcher. He's a floor of a backup due to his defensive abilities and a ceiling of a weaker offensive starting catcher. Nobody should expect anything offensively out of him, but he does have great defensive capabilities. Swihart hasn't been likened to Buster Posey, cmon now. Posey is an MVP caliber backstop. This kid looks like you above average to all star ceiling catcher, but let's not get carried away here

 

I didn't say it Jacko, scouts said it and did so numerous times so take up your argument with them. My main point is that if we have a player who is weak with the bat and we have someone who is better offensively you go with that player. Anyone who saw what killed us this season and finds fault with that is in total denial. Swihart is a switch hitting catcher who has been likened to Posey. He can hit, he has power, he hits from sides of the plate and he has a very strong arm and calls a good game. I would take it you would rather have your team face Vazquez for the next ten years instead of Blake, but that's not the way I see it and hope that's not the way a few of our addled people in the front office see it either.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Couple things. Vazquez does not have the ceiling of an above average catcher. He's a floor of a backup due to his defensive abilities and a ceiling of a weaker offensive starting catcher. Nobody should expect anything offensively out of him, but he does have great defensive capabilities. Swihart hasn't been likened to Buster Posey, cmon now. Posey is an MVP caliber backstop. This kid looks like you above average to all star ceiling catcher, but let's not get carried away here

 

Two things:

 

1. A lot of people liken Vazquez to Yadi not only for his defense but also for his offensive ability to put the ball in play, low K numbers, etc. Yadi started slow at the plate as well. High contact guys generally will pan out just fine in the MLB. Also, catchers develop slower than any other position, offensicely speaking. Vazquez has a ceiling of a very good every day catcher on a contending team.

 

2. Please try to find any Jim Callis article where he doesn't call Swihart a Buster Posey Starter Kit. I've heard him say it so many times its getting old. You know, the head writer for MLB Pipeline and the former Red Sox writer for BA? He probably knows his stuff pretty well.

[SoxFanForsyth]

"I’m the guy who keeps writing the line, and I always qualify this by saying I’m not saying Blake Swihart will be this. But Blake Swihart has the closest thing to Buster Posey’s tools since Buster Posey,” Callis said.

 

Read more at: http://nesn.com/2014/07/jim-callis-red-sox-prospect-blake-swihart-has-buster-posey-like-tools/

[a700hitter]

I would cough up whatever it takes to get Stanton. I don't think we have enough talent in our system to get him if we let the Marlins give us a list.

[Palodios]

I would cough up whatever it takes to get Stanton. I don't think we have enough talent in our system to get him if we let the Marlins give us a list.

 

It might be an adjustment period teaching him to catch.

[a700hitter]

it might be an adjustment period teaching him to catch.

lol!!! Ooops. But he would be a helluva a hitting catcher! Edited October 23, 2014 by a700hitter

[sk7326]

There are many scouts and baseball people through the game that have likened Blake Swihart to Buster Posey. That should be enough for the Red Sox to get their heads out of their asses and make damn sure that, ONE, they do not trade him, and TWO, that he becomes their catcher when he is ready, and Three, if not that find a spot for him in the infield (1B or 3B). I would take number two. We can talk all we want about defense and how we can carry a batter or two who hits poorly because the other people will hit. That is pure unadulterated ********!!!!. We only have to look at this past season when we were talking the same tune. What happened? Bradley was prime horseshit, Bogaerts was lousy and ineffective, AJ was a disaster and Gomes didn't hit and Shane was hurt. You pack as many hitters as you can in the lineup and if for no other reason it might be wise to do this because there is no guarantee that Cherington is going to be able to get those two solid pitchers we need. Most likely he will screw things up badly again just as he did after 2011 and 2013. We may need all the offense we can get....hitters who can hit for average, some with ability to steal bases as well, some to hit with some power, and some who can hit with men on base. Swihart and Cecchini must be given spots when they are ready. My fear is that the front office has turned gun shy with young players because of how s***** Bradley and Bogaerts were this year. IMHO, Blake and Garin couldn't be as crappy as Bradley was if they tried to hit blindfolded, and pray that Bogaerts turns out to be the player the Red Sox envisioned and not the choker I believe we may have on our hands. I'd love to be proven wrong on that one.

 

I'll say this slowly:

1. Most of Bogaerts' peers just finished SINGLE A ... Tulo was not in the show at his age. He had a horrendous 2 months. But there is a lot there. One can say "well he is an underachiever compared to Ken Griffey and Mike Trout at that age". That describes a lot of people.

2. Red Sox have to make a real assessment on who to bet the catcher position on - Vasquez or Swihart. If Swihart is the choice (and he is the ceiling guy of the two) - then Vasquez is trade bait now.

3. The verdict on Bogaerts has not been given - aside from management dithering on him and listening to WEEI too much in handling him. His age and track record are too strong to not still be in on him. Betts is another strong buy. Those are guys you build around - the other guys you figure out.

[sk7326]

I would cough up whatever it takes to get Stanton. I don't think we have enough talent in our system to get him if we let the Marlins give us a list.

 

The Red Sox can put a good deal together. Problem is the Dodgers can put up a better one. They can build something around Puig and a couple of true star prospects. Red Sox have more depth but probably more debate around that depth.

[Spudboy]

The Red Sox can put a good deal together. Problem is the Dodgers can put up a better one. They can build something around Puig and a couple of true star prospects. Red Sox have more depth but probably more debate around that depth.

 

A while ago I read that the Cubs were seen as strong contenders in a trade for Stanton as well.

 

In any case, it is probably not a good idea to assume that if the Sox do want Stanton that he will be playing for Boston. Other teams have needs and assets too.

[seabeachfred]

I'll say this slowly:

1. Most of Bogaerts' peers just finished SINGLE A ... Tulo was not in the show at his age. He had a horrendous 2 months. But there is a lot there. One can say "well he is an underachiever compared to Ken Griffey and Mike Trout at that age". That describes a lot of people.

2. Red Sox have to make a real assessment on who to bet the catcher position on - Vasquez or Swihart. If Swihart is the choice (and he is the ceiling guy of the two) - then Vasquez is trade bait now.

3. The verdict on Bogaerts has not been given - aside from management dithering on him and listening to WEEI too much in handling him. His age and track record are too strong to not still be in on him. Betts is another strong buy. Those are guys you build around - the other guys you figure out.

 

As I said, I hope I am wrong about Bogaerts and would be delighted if I am. I don't think he was helped by the constant droning on about whether he could play short, play third or what have you. The key was the signing of Stephen Drew, which, BTW, I called from the start and said it would be a disaster---which it most certainly was. Drew hadn't played since October and was coming off a miserable offensive post-season. Signing him in May after almost seven months of inactivity was written in failure for anyone with a half a brain to see it. It was the worst mistake the front office and management made in a season that was chock full of them. Bogey will get another chance and I hope this time he learns how to handle pressure when he is at bat and there are runners on the bases. I also called it as early as April that from what I saw in the Home Opening Series alone that this guy could be a choker. He was certainly that this season....a very big choker.

[Dojji]

He's very young and playing at a very high level. Let's see him get at least a few reps to settle down and get used to the league before waving the "choker" label around.

 

Bogaerts is still one year younger than Nomar was when he debuted, and 2 years younger than Nomar was when he broke out. A little time and patience is in order.

[a700hitter]

A while ago I read that the Cubs were seen as strong contenders in a trade for Stanton as well.

 

In any case, it is probably not a good idea to assume that if the Sox do want Stanton that he will be playing for Boston. Other teams have needs and assets too.

The Cubs are stocked with blue chip prospects who are ready to make the jump to the pros. Our best prospects -- Bradley, Middlebrooks and XB all are devalued. Bradley and WMB have no value. X's value has been greatly discounted. We don't have any other major league ready blue chip prospects other than Betts. We are not going to get Stanton for XB, Betts and a collection of guys who are 2 to 3 years away from the majors. We don't have the chips. They held the chips too long and they turned into horse chips. Edited October 23, 2014 by a700hitter

[sk7326]

The Cubs are stocked with blue chip prospects who are ready to make the jump to the pros. Our best prospects -- Bradley, Middlebrooks and XB all are devalued. Bradley and WMB have no value. X's value has been greatly discounted. We don't have any other major league ready blue chip prospects other than Betts. We are not going to get Stanton for XB, Betts and a collection of guys who are 2 to 3 years away from the majors. We don't have the chips. They held the chips too long and they turned into horse chips.

 

The tricky part of the match with the Cubbies is all of their blue chippers are bats. The Marlins have historically prized arms - and the Cubs system is barren as far as quality arms. The Marlins would have to either want what the Cubs are selling - or the Cubs will have to find some pitching.

 

I also think the industry view on Bogaerts is way way higher than you think. The questions about SS/3B are real - but the industry sees a guy who was super young and struggled in the middle of sloppy management. (there is real question on that front in the post-

Theo administration ... so far the evidence on how they have handled kids now vs how Theo and Tito did it is not good) He is still way too young not to project significant things. The worst you can say about him is that maybe he is a change of scenery guy - but I doubt even that. Bradley and WMB are different animals - you start getting to 25, 26 years old and plateauing, that is a major red flag. When WMB turned down a chance to go to AFL that was even worse.

 

I think where the horse chips came from is the phalanx of pitchers we have. There are a lot of arms (which the Cubs don't have) but after the one month tryout - nobody with a Top 2 projection outside of Owens (who we didn't see). Workman and Webster look like short relievers, Barnes has some potential. Ranaudo looks wholly fungible. The Marlins would love live arms (like when we had Anibal Sanchez) - we have some work to do there. Now, great relievers matter - look at us a year ago and the Royals this year - but when that is the ceiling as prospect depth that is less awesome.

Edited October 23, 2014 by sk7326

[a700hitter]

The tricky part of the match with the Cubbies is all of their blue chippers are bats. The Marlins have historically prized arms - and the Cubs system is barren as far as quality arms. The Marlins would have to either want what the Cubs are selling - or the Cubs will have to find some pitching.

 

I also think the industry view on Bogaerts is way way higher than you think. The questions about SS/3B are real - but the industry sees a guy who was super young and struggled in the middle of sloppy management. (there is real question on that front in the post-

Theo administration ... so far the evidence on how they have handled kids now vs how Theo and Tito did it is not good) He is still way too young not to project significant things. The worst you can say about him is that maybe he is a change of scenery guy - but I doubt even that. Bradley and WMB are different animals - you start getting to 25, 26 years old and plateauing, that is a major red flag. When WMB turned down a chance to go to AFL that was even worse.

 

I think where the horse chips came from is the phalanx of pitchers we have. There are a lot of arms (which the Cubs don't have) but after the one month tryout - nobody with a Top 2 projection outside of Owens (who we didn't see). Workman and Webster look like short relievers, Barnes has some potential. Ranaudo looks wholly fungible. The Marlins would love live arms (like when we had Anibal Sanchez) - we have some work to do there. Now, great relievers matter - look at us a year ago and the Royals this year - but when that is the ceiling as prospect depth that is less awesome.

Also, relievers will not get it done for a stud like Stanton.

[SCM33]

I think there is a pretty easy way to evaluate him. The Molina scale.....they were all great defensive catchers with cannons.

 

Jose Molina had a career line of:[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TR=class: stat_total hl, bgcolor: #DADCDE]

[TD=align: right].233[/TD]

[TD=align: right].282[/TD]

[TD=align: right].327[/TD]

[TD=align: right].608[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

Bengie has a career line of:

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TR=class: stat_total hl, bgcolor: #DADCDE]

[TD=align: right].274[/TD]

[TD=align: right].307[/TD]

[TD=align: right].411[/TD]

[TD=align: right].718

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

Yadier has a career line of:

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TR=class: stat_total hl, bgcolor: #DADCDE]

[TD=align: right].284[/TD]

[TD=align: right].339[/TD]

[TD=align: right].402[/TD]

[TD=align: right].741[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

At the age of 23 Christian Vasquez just put up a line of:

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TR=class: stat_total hl, bgcolor: #DADCDE]

[TD=align: right].240[/TD]

[TD=align: right].308[/TD]

[TD=align: right].309[/TD]

[TD=align: right].617[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

At the age of 23 Yadier Molina put up a line of:

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TR=class: full hl, bgcolor: #DDEEFF]

[TD=align: right].216[/TD]

[TD=align: right].274[/TD]

[TD=align: right].321[/TD]

[TD=align: right].595[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Jose didn't see significant playing time until he was 28. Bengie didn't see significant playing time until he was 25. Catchers take a while to develop, he will eventually hit.

 

I think he could be a similar player to Bengie Molina.

[Dojji]

 

2. Red Sox have to make a real assessment on who to bet the catcher position on - Vasquez or Swihart. If Swihart is the choice (and he is the ceiling guy of the two) - then Vasquez is trade bait now.

 

 

Oh, HELL to the no. Didn't we learn with the Lavarnway debacle that there's no such thing as a surefire prospect?

 

NEVER give away all your prospects at a given position less one, then murder your veteran depth to "make room" for a prospect. Not unless you're a farm team with a budget of 5 bucks and whatever Aunt Judy can dig out of her sofa.

[a700hitter]

Oh, HELL to the no. Didn't we learn with the Lavarnway debacle that there's no such thing as a surefire prospect?

 

NEVER give away all your prospects at a given position less one, then murder your veteran depth to "make room" for a prospect. Not unless you're a farm team with a budget of 5 bucks and whatever Aunt Judy can dig out of her sofa.

 

Lol! Agreed.

[sk7326]

Oh, HELL to the no. Didn't we learn with the Lavarnway debacle that there's no such thing as a surefire prospect?

 

NEVER give away all your prospects at a given position less one, then murder your veteran depth to "make room" for a prospect. Not unless you're a farm team with a budget of 5 bucks and whatever Aunt Judy can dig out of her sofa.

 

You don't give anybody away - but if a deal for Johnny Cueto hinged on Vasquez and the org has evaluated that Swihart is the long term guy - then you make the trade without regret. One of the things - one of the jobs an org has - is to evaluate who is untouchable. Catching is a place where Boston has org depth - so it is a place you can make a determination on who is the best of the bunch. (Although it is a secondary consideration it's ALSO NOT FAIR TO THE PROSPECTS) Lavarnway was never a surefire catcher prospect. There was a reason we dealt for Salty knowing Lavarnway was there.