Sizing up the World Series - Sox/Cards Preview - Offense and Pitching

[sk7326]

Cards fan here. Reading this topic really brought home how little I know about the Sox. And how little you know about the Cardinals. But analyzing stats and making optimistic predictions is fun. You all have a pretty good overview on the Cards as a team, generally. But allow me to give you a heads up on them specifically.

 

Most dangerous hitter in the clutch is NOT Allen Craig. It's Molina. If he had batted 3rd or 4th, (instead of 5th) and was not a catcher to limit his playing time, he would easily have led the league in RBI.

 

Wainwright is not the ace. Wacha is.

 

Rosenthal is not the hardest reliever to hit. Martinez is. Rosie is always around the zone, whereas Martinez is a tad wild. He will bounce one a foot outside and then paint the black at 100mph. It's hard for the hitter to get comfortable.

 

Matt Holliday, batting 3rd, is actually the 5th best hitter on the team. Despite his decent looking numbers, he is by far the EASIEST Cardinal to strike out or GIDP. (led the NL) He is NOT a money player.

 

Big Matt Adams: Reminiscent of Boog Powell, this kid is a masher. However, the NL employed an odd shift to deal with him. The 2nd baseman would drop back to short RF, and Matt did hit hard line drives to him for easy outs. Matt made adjustments with some success, but his HR's were greatly reduced.

 

Matt Carpenter is a doubles machine (55) and will be a problem for the Sox.

 

David Freese can still come up with a clutch hit, but is not the same player you remember from the 2011 WS.

 

Jon Jay in CF is probably in the running for the worst in baseball, and he hits like s*** too. Bench player, Shane Robinson is better, but Matheny does not seem to think so. However, the St. Louis fans and media have been making a lot of noise lately, and Matheny may have to crack and put him in. Robinson is a burner. Very hard to stop on the bases unless stifled by Matheny and his station to station approach.

 

The man to watch is Carlos Beltran. As you know, very dangerous in the playoffs, but it's unknown how he does in the WS.

 

The manager Matheny: A baby clone of the incredibly over rated LaRussa. He likes to award outs after leadoff dbls with bunts... Dbl. switches EVERY single time he can.... A terrible bullpen manager. Will yank a lights out pitcher at the drop of a hat for the L/R ********. Boston's best shot at winning will be on Kelly and Lyne who are 5 to 6 inning pitchers. Get to the pen early, and watch Matheny get into a switching frenzy!

 

Bench: Its extremely weak. The only decent hitter is Matt Adams, who is STARTING. You won't see much of this bench except in mop up situations.

 

Of course you know that Cards fans are fairly slobbering at the chance for 2004 payback. But there isn't a single Card on this team from that season. I don't think it's an issue at all for the players. They just want to keep winning.

 

But they DO have a sensational "Phoenix crushing" story line: Pirates....rise from the 20 year ashes, crushed. The Dodgers....mired in last place before the ASB and roared to 1st place...crushed! The Boston Red Sox....from the ashes of last place to Pennant winners. Crushed?? LOL, we shall see.

 

My prediction: If the Cards win game 1, they win it in 6. If Boston wins game 1, the series will go to 7 and who knows who wins it!? OK, thanks for reading my rambling.

 

Wacha has been dominant in the postseason ... we have seen youngsters rise up in postseasons, Price, Moore - Tim Wakefield in 1992. But 241 IP > 64 IP ... Wainwright is the hoss, and the track record to back it up. I am excited to see Wacha though, he has a chance to be a true staff ace when he breaks camp next year.

[Carter]

Wacha has been dominant in the postseason ... we have seen youngsters rise up in postseasons, Price, Moore - Tim Wakefield in 1992. But 241 IP > 64 IP ... Wainwright is the hoss, and the track record to back it up. I am excited to see Wacha though, he has a chance to be a true staff ace when he breaks camp next year.

True and true. But Waino has his down times. If his big curve is not breaking, he is mashed! That happened this season for 5 strait starts at one point. He won 13 before the ASB and 6 after!

 

As you said, Wacha is dominant. Almost unhittable, really. Will this enormous stage unsettle him?

[sk7326]

True and true. But Waino has his down times. If his big curve is not breaking, he is mashed! That happened this season for 5 strait starts at one point. He won 13 before the ASB and 6 after!

 

As you said, Wacha is dominant. Almost unhittable, really. Will this enormous stage unsettle him?

 

Beware using pitcher wins for anything. Wainwright's 2nd half FIP 3.07, first half 2.22 ... he went from amazing to very good. I am impressed certainly.

[jung]

So from what I am hearing, Buch is like way up in the air as far as whether he can give us anything. So, that means who...Felix...Oh my God!

[Carter]

Beware using pitcher wins for anything. Wainwright's 2nd half FIP 3.07, first half 2.22 ... he went from amazing to very good. I am impressed certainly.

I get that about the wins. As I said, that big curve is the key. In most games it takes him a couple of innings to get it going. You have to get to him in the 1st or 2nd. He's very tough after that. His BB to K ratio is sick.

 

Lance Lyne takes a while to settle in as well. But he's liable to give up 3 or 4 runs before he does.

[jung]

Well, to be fair, the true bridge is Tazawa/Breslow, who have been plenty good. After all, most team's 5th/6th inning sorts are largely not very good either. And I do trust Workman as much as I'll trust any guy of that ilk (trust less than Tazawa/Breslow, more than Morales/Thornton) - I can get behind him being put into an important spot at least.

 

 

Yes but our pen is going to be taxed surely in any game that Buch starts and the bridge in that game will likely start in the 5th inning. The some may be true of Peavey if he comes out of the gate walking a foot off the ground again. That is why I am concerned. We all (I think all) know Farrell going to Frankie when he did was a monster blunder. Blunder or no what does it say about Farrell's confidence going to guys other than the guys he has grown used to dropping into the 7th, 8th and 9th slots. I happen to think that Farrell's mistake was not that he did not go to Workman but in not tapping one of his late inning guys for that job. Remember we were already in a jam that we had to get out of before we could go forward.

 

As for the Cards, they actually have a similar problem. If you look at their average starter stints they are coming out of games pretty early even without the kind of pressures the Sox bring to bear. The Cards do have more reliable options. They have more arms that their manager has confidence bringing into the game in those middle inning situations.

[marklmw]

The Tigers pitching in the ALCS was amazing .... a good thing for the Sox as nothing they see now against the Cards will unnerve them.

[User Name]

The Tigers pitching in the ALCS was amazing .... a good thing for the Sox as nothing they see now against the Cards will unnerve them.

 

Except Wainwright if he's on. Wacha could be a challenge too. A young pitcher riding a hot streak is extremely dangerous. Ask Josh Beckett.

[marklmw]

Except Wainwright if he's on. Wacha could be a challenge too. A young pitcher riding a hot streak is extremely dangerous. Ask Josh Beckett.

 

True that UN but my point is that the Sox faced some really good pitching, pitchers pitching as good as they can pitch and we still overcame in the end. We are tough.

[iortiz]

This is not the Pirates Offense. We have more ways to make Rs than LA. We already beat Price, Moore, Scherzer, Verlander and today WW.

 

I want to see this kid tomo against the best offense in baseball at Feway.

[User Name]

This is not the Pirates Offense. We have more ways to make Rs than LA. We already beat Price, Moore, Scherzer, Verlander and today WW.

 

I want to see this kid tomo against the best offense in baseball at Feway.

 

And the best closer in baseball too.

[Carter]

This is not the Pirates Offense. We have more ways to make Rs than LA. We already beat Price, Moore, Scherzer, Verlander and today WW.

 

I want to see this kid tomo against the best offense in baseball at Feway.

The Sox worked 4 walks off the Kid and several long counts, driving his pitch count to the moon by the 6th. There seemed to be an inordinate number of pop-ups last night to keep him out of deep trouble. Of course, Ortiz got him figured out pretty good. I guess the jury is still out on Wacha vs. the Red Sox.

[sk7326]

The Sox worked 4 walks off the Kid and several long counts, driving his pitch count to the moon by the 6th. There seemed to be an inordinate number of pop-ups last night to keep him out of deep trouble. Of course, Ortiz got him figured out pretty good. I guess the jury is still out on Wacha vs. the Red Sox.

 

There wasn't hopeless confusion like when they faced Scherzer or Darvish in the regular season ... Wacha is a #2/3 sort of starter on a hot streak, which is to be applauded. It's hard to really be flummoxed by a guy without a 3rd pitch of better than "show" quality.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

Unfortunately, I had to work during games one and two. It seems like in Game one, the Cardinals pretty much gave away the game with their errors. In Game two, they seemed more settled down. (I admit, I did not get to see either game. I am going off of reading about the games, and seeing highlights after the fact.) I am hoping we can rebound and really bring out the bats in game three.

[Carter]

Unfortunately, I had to work during games one and two. It seems like in Game one, the Cardinals pretty much gave away the game with their errors. In Game two, they seemed more settled down. (I admit, I did not get to see either game. I am going off of reading about the games, and seeing highlights after the fact.) I am hoping we can rebound and really bring out the bats in game three.

The Cards D was horrendous in game 1, but even w/o the errors they still lose the game by 2 or 3 runs. As to game 2, it was one bad throw that broke the tie in favor of the Cards. Their defense was improved, and they got a couple more hits than the Sox. Pretty even looking teams so far in my book.

[Carter]

There wasn't hopeless confusion like when they faced Scherzer or Darvish in the regular season ... Wacha is a #2/3 sort of starter on a hot streak, which is to be applauded. It's hard to really be flummoxed by a guy without a 3rd pitch of better than "show" quality.

Generally speaking, you are right. But there have been exceptions, two come immediately to mind: Walter Johnson. He never threw anything except that sidearm fastball. I know what you're thinking! "Compare this rookie to the Big Train??!

 

The other (less talented) guy I'm thinking of was Paul Dean, Dizzy's kid brother. He had back to back 19 win years and his catcher NEVER put down more than one finger. All I'm saying is that it is possible to be a successful 2 pitch pitcher. Of course, he would be better if he does perfect that "show" curveball. It looks to me to have a pretty decent break on it.

[sk7326]

Generally speaking, you are right. But there have been exceptions, two come immediately to mind: Walter Johnson. He never threw anything except that sidearm fastball. I know what you're thinking! "Compare this rookie to the Big Train??!

 

The other (less talented) guy I'm thinking of was Paul Dean, Dizzy's kid brother. He had back to back 19 win years and his catcher NEVER put down more than one finger. All I'm saying is that it is possible to be a successful 2 pitch pitcher. Of course, he would be better if he does perfect that "show" curveball. It looks to me to have a pretty decent break on it.

 

Rolls, doesn't snap - and given how little he throws it, he doesn't think it's a good pitch ...

 

You cite some examples from several thousand years ago, so I cannot attest. Generally people knew much less about baseball scouting/coachingwise than they do now.

[Carter]

Rolls, doesn't snap - and given how little he throws it, he doesn't think it's a good pitch ...

 

You cite some examples from several thousand years ago, so I cannot attest. Generally people knew much less about baseball scouting/coachingwise than they do now.

Some things never change. Like hitting a good fastball. And all the scouting in the world won't help a hitter that can't catch up to one.

[sk7326]

Some things never change. Like hitting a good fastball. And all the scouting in the world won't help a hitter that can't catch up to one.

 

Good fastball, but pretty straight ... change-up is plus, good arm action. Good command - which helps. But fairly scoutable right now - it's not #1 stuff over the long term, not compared to Martinez who, while more raw, has serious stuff. Obviously things change - but the 2 innings Martinez threw elicited more "wow" than the 6 Wacha provided (or even the NLCS starts i got glimpses of)

[Carter]

Good fastball, but pretty straight ... change-up is plus, good arm action. Good command - which helps. But fairly scoutable right now - it's not #1 stuff over the long term, not compared to Martinez who, while more raw, has serious stuff. Obviously things change - but the 2 innings Martinez threw elicited more "wow" than the 6 Wacha provided (or even the NLCS starts i got glimpses of)

Oh my yes. I mentioned Martinez as the most electrifying reliever in the other "Sizing up" thread. And I assure you that you have seen almost as much of him as I. I will tell you however, that in a stint late in Sept. he came in and every other pitch was in the dirt or over Molina's head! It was scary. So keep an eye out for that.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

Any thoughts on how the Sox will do in the Cardinals ball park? I know we lose Napoli, though I am sure he will be a late inning defensive replacement. Any similar parks in the AL that we have played in to get an idea what to expect from the offense? Will Peavy have an epic game, or wilt again?

[Carter]

Any thoughts on how the Sox will do in the Cardinals ball park? I know we lose Napoli, though I am sure he will be a late inning defensive replacement. Any similar parks in the AL that we have played in to get an idea what to expect from the offense? Will Peavy have an epic game, or wilt again?

As to the field: It's pretty symmetrical in the OF, with the RF wall being further back than Fenway. There are no sharp angles to worry about. But there is a short, close wall down the right and left field lines, very close to the stands that can give an out fielder fits with a 45 degree carom back to the playing field. Nice for hitters shooting it down the line.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

Thanks. I was just wondering if any advantage is to be had by our hitters or pitchers. Obviously, St. Louis gets an advantage for it being their home field, but just wondered if any of our hitters or pitchers would get an advantage there.

[Palodios]

Any thoughts on how the Sox will do in the Cardinals ball park? I know we lose Napoli, though I am sure he will be a late inning defensive replacement. Any similar parks in the AL that we have played in to get an idea what to expect from the offense? Will Peavy have an epic game, or wilt again?

 

Easy prediction: Victorino runs into a wall atleast twice.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

Easy prediction: Victorino runs into a wall atleast twice.

 

I would think he is fairly familiar with that field since his time with the Phillies.

[Palodios]

I would think he is fairly familiar with that field since his time with the Phillies.

 

I'm sure his ribs have become very familiar with them as well.