Jon Lester and the Fenway bugaboo

[jacksonianmarch]

As some of the long time sox fans can remember, you dont see a lot of success from left handed sox pitchers because of the Fenway bugaboo. Guys come in, light the world aflame and then all of a sudden lose it. You didnt see that with Hurst, but guys like Viola, Avery, etc have found measures of success prior to Boston, and even some success in Boston before completely unfolding. Some guys find it after leaving Boston, others are finished. But the one thing that is showing some paralells here is the bugaboo with Jon Lester. Prior to 2012, he was a beast at Fenway. But in 2012, a weird thing happened. Jon Lester remained an ace on the road yet completely fell apart at home. The numbers are shocking.

 

On the road: 3.20ERA 7.3K/9IP 3K/BB 1.16WHIP

At home: 6.31ERA 7.2K/9IP 2.1K/BB 1.58WHIP

 

I am wondering if this is just an aberration or if this becomes a trend. Fenway was a hostile environment for a lot of pitchers this past yr, but Lester took it to an extreme. If he continues to show this trend, he might need a change of scenery and with his splits being so ridiculous, he might be able to command a little more out of teams since he is performing to career norms outside of his home stadium

[SoxSport]

Lester has turn around or this team is dead this year. The starting pitching has to rebound. And the back end of the bullpen has to get back to where it was when Bard and Pap were there. Forget about the rest of it. It's about the pitching having to rebound.

[Station 13]

The split is interesting. At least we know he is still capable of pitching 'ace' like. To win division, the team must go back to winning around 50 home games.

[BSN07]

He's been falling off since Farrell left and Fenway wasn't the greatest place to play last season. We wll have to wait and see if he turns it around with Farrell and the new atmosphere around the team.

[jacksonianmarch]

He actually pitched very well at Fenway in 2011, so it's not farrell

[jung]

His numbers at Fenway were "shocking"?? The only thing that I find shocking about a struggling LH pitcher in Fenway is that we don't end up finding his head rolling around out by 3rd base somewhere. All this indicates is that his problems produced worse results at Fenway than away. Nothing that unusual for a LH pitcher if he is struggling. In his case he went through one stretch where he was so completely fouled up that he started aiming the ball. Those were the nights when I expected to see his head rolling around out by 3rd having been knocked off his shoulders by some enterprising RH hitter.

 

I think it took tremendous concentration for him to pitch as well as he did at the end of the season as he was clearly still struggling but really used up a tremendous amount of energy and concentration getting the ball to home plate. It is not a surprise to me that the usual Lester mannerisms were missing at the end of the season as he just could not concentrate that hard on getting the ball to the plate and entertain his emotions per usual for him.

 

Frankly I just think pitching has to come more naturally than that. I commend Jon for doing what he did to get through the latter part of 2012. However he truly has to "fix it" and hopefully he will.

[a700hitter]

He actually pitched very well at Fenway in 2011, so it's not farrell

The "Farrell Effect" on Lester or Buchholz is wishful thinking. I don't think pitching coaches have much effect on performance at all.

[jacksonianmarch]

The "Farrell Effect" on Lester or Buchholz is wishful thinking. I don't think pitching coaches have much effect on performance at all.

 

They have an effect on preparation and repetition. Once gameday comes around, they're help is trivial. It is obviously a mental thing with Lester. Why would the guy go beast mode on the road and suck worse than Lackey a la 2011 in his home stadium? Mental issues are the hardest to overcome. If Lester goes out there in his first Fenway start and gets his titties lit, then he's gonna be in for a long season

[jacksonianmarch]

It's a mental thing until proven otherwise. And good lefties have gone to die in Fenway. Viola's final season ended after 6 starts with an ERA close to 5, btw.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, Youk sucked, and he may still suck come 2013.

 

How you can truly overlook Lester's yr and just chalk it up to a fluke is hilarious. 5 more homers at home in 10 less innings, a much higher walk rate as well. Yeah, the BABIP was up as well. He both sucked and was unlucky. So it's a fluke that, on the road, he pitched past career norms and on the road he was abysmal. You don't really enjoy reality do you?

[jung]

I think he is a good candidate for RedBeard-atossis and will likely fail miserably since the Yanks will make him shave.:D

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Youk can be valuable if the Yankees dont think of him as a full time third baseman. If we're running him out there 5 or 6 games in a row, then we might as well stick a fork in him. If he is alternated at DH with Jeter for the first half of the season, he might be fresh enough to last the yr and be productive. But if he's at the hot corner for a month without a ton of time off, then we better hope ARod comes back healthy enough to play the field

[mvp 78]

It's a mental thing until proven otherwise? Thank you for your invaluable insight in to Jon Lester's psyche Dr. Freud. How about we look at his entire career and don't judge him by his ERA in 100 innings. Perhaps there's a much simpler explanation, such as his BABIP being .060 points higher at home?

 

Give up on the "Fenway Bugaboo", Frank Viola's numbers with the Red Sox were better than his career numbers. He had a 3.14 ERA in 1993 and in 1994 he blew out his elbow after six starts. Let me guess, we're going to judge him on the 6 starts and assume it was a mental thing for him as well? Or maybe Fenway blew out his elbow?

 

Oh thank God, that there is a sane new poster on here. I was wondering if we'd find another. Welcome!

[a700hitter]

Is the alternative that it is a physical issue as opposed to a mental issue? Is a physical issue less problematic?

[Rdsxmbnt]

I think a lot of it has to do with timing. The July 8-22 stretch was where he bottomed out this past season and had three home starts in a row where he got bombed to the tune of 21 runs over those starts.

 

He finished the last two months of the season pretty strong with a 3.76 ERA over his last 80 innings. A number of those starts were at home and he was fine.

[jung]

You all disappoint me. I fully expected a "what are you on about now Jacko" from one of the usual suspects.:D

[MANNYHOF24]

This is such a ******** topic...from 2008 to 2011 Lester's highest ERA at Fenway was 3.67. He had two years with a sub 3 era. 2012 is an aberration for Lester until he proves otherwise. Also he had one start where he gave up 12 runs in 3 innings. That skews his stats pretty badly.

[a700hitter]

I think a lot of it has to do with timing. The July 8-22 stretch was where he bottomed out this past season and had three home starts in a row where he got bombed to the tune of 21 runs over those starts.

 

He finished the last two months of the season pretty strong with a 3.76 ERA over his last 80 innings. A number of those starts were at home and he was fine.

So, but for a few starts in one stretch, you think he was the Lester of old? I can't agree with that. Whenever I hear such cherry-picking of a players performance, I answer with a question: What do you call a pitcher that has one bad inning every game giving up 5 runs in that inning? The answer is that he is a bad pitcher even if he puts up goose eggs in every other innings. The same goes for a season. Lester is what his final stats showed. He stunk. What is most concerning is that he didn't appear to return to anything close to a dominating form by the end of the season.

[Rdsxmbnt]

So, but for a few starts in one stretch, you think he was the Lester of old? I can't agree with that. Whenever I hear such cherry-picking of a players performance, I answer with a question: What do you call a pitcher that has one bad inning every game giving up 5 runs in that inning? The answer is that he is a bad pitcher even if he puts up goose eggs in every other innings. The same goes for a season. Lester is what his final stats showed. He stunk. What is most concerning is that he didn't appear to return to anything close to a dominating form by the end of the season.

 

No I don't but the way the stats are being presented in this thread it makes it seem like a case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hide. He was clearly worse at home but not consistently twice as bad as his ERA taken as a whole seems to indicate. Thus given his peripherals are fairly similar home and away, I don't see any long term home/away issues for Lester. I think the differences are more of an aberration

[a700hitter]

No I don't but the way the stats are being presented in this thread it makes it seem like a case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hide. He was clearly worse at home but not consistently twice as bad as his ERA taken as a whole seems to indicate. Thus given his peripherals are fairly similar home and away, I don't see any long term home/away issues for Lester. I think the differences are more of an aberration

Home or away didn't matter. Last year, the old Lester didn't show up anywhere. I also don't buy the Fenway Park bugaboo explanation.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Farrell already talked about how Lester was opening up his front leg too early and it flattened out his cutter and left his fastball over the plate.

 

It's more than just a Fenway/Away split. And having Farrell will make a big difference. Some of his problems were mental, but there were also mechanical problems. I'd like to see his baBIP at home since his K:BB ratio was better at home.

[jacksonianmarch]

Farrell already talked about how Lester was opening up his front leg too early and it flattened out his cutter and left his fastball over the plate.

 

It's more than just a Fenway/Away split. And having Farrell will make a big difference. Some of his problems were mental, but there were also mechanical problems. I'd like to see his baBIP at home since his K:BB ratio was better at home.

 

His K:BB ratio was WAY worse at home than it was on the road. 2.1 vs 3.0. The stats defy just a fluke. He was completely horrid at home and an ace on the road.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Those stats defy a fluke?!?

 

He had a .341 BABIP at home. A 62.5% strand rate. A 1.26 HR/9 last year, 15.5% HR/FB.

 

For his career at home: .311 BABIP, 74.5% strand rate, 0.86 HR/9, 10.4% HR/FB.

 

So his BABIP went up by almost 10%, 16% decrease in Strand Rate, and a 50% increase in HR/9 and HR/FB.

 

This defines fluke. Again. Please do just a hair of analysis other than Murphy's Law.

[Palodios]

It would be one thing if he was consistently bad at Fenway, but that wasn't the case. He had four completely awful starts at Fenway, giving up 31 runs in 14 innings . In his other 14 starts, he had a 4.25 ERA. The home numbers are skewed by a small sample size.

 

/thread.

[jacksonianmarch]

4 completely awful starts is an awful pitcher. How many completely awful starts did he have on the road? You cannot cherry pick this s*** man.

[SoxFanForsyth]

4 completely awful starts is an awful pitcher. How many completely awful starts did he have on the road? You cannot cherry pick this s*** man.

 

No argument against hard stats, aka fluky increases in BABIP, HR/FB, and Strand Rate.

[Palodios]

4 completely awful starts is an awful pitcher. How many completely awful starts did he have on the road? You cannot cherry pick this s*** man.

 

Pitchers have a bad day sometimes. Lester's just happened to be in Fenway.

[jacksonianmarch]

Alright, you want me to throw out the really bad games. How bout we go by quality start percentage? That equates those horrendous messes to any game not reaching 6IP or allowing more than 3ER.

 

Home- 8QS/18GS 44%

Away- 9QS/15GS 60%

 

Using that stat is a small sample size, but he threw one more QS in 3 less starts on the road. We shall see if he can overcome it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Per usual, Jackso refuses to dispute proper statistics that prove his home splits were a fluke.

[a700hitter]

Farrell already talked about how Lester was opening up his front leg too early and it flattened out his cutter and left his fastball over the plate.

 

It's more than just a Fenway/Away split. And having Farrell will make a big difference. Some of his problems were mental, but there were also mechanical problems. I'd like to see his baBIP at home since his K:BB ratio was better at home.

Lester is going to have to figure this out on his own. If it is simply a mechanical problem, he will have to figure it out on his own. I am not convinced that this is simply a mechanical issue, because his problems lasted too long.