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Posted

Salty will get dished now, which is good. He's still got value not because he's some amazing catcher, but because the catching market is so incredibly thin.

 

He's going into his final year of arbitration, and will likely get around $2.5-3mm if I had to guess.

 

Needless to say, that's a much, much better deal than you'll get on the market. Pierzynski and Martin are the two decent catchers on the market, and they'll be seeking multi year deals.

 

I would agree with Lauber that the Sox can use Salty as a nice complimentary piece in a deal for someone like Garza, or as more of a main piece in a deal for someone like Floyd or Niese.

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Posted
I'd rather have Salty at 1b than Gomez. His CERA sucks. If he can improve his hitting by moving to 1b, he may be servicable somewhere. Long term, he's not an answer for the Sox, obviously.
Posted
Salty is like Pena at 1B but with less power and defensive skills. If Salty is playing 1B next season, s*** has gone even further down hill. Which is saying something lol
Posted
I'd rather have Salty at 1b than Gomez. His CERA sucks. If he can improve his hitting by moving to 1b, he may be servicable somewhere. Long term, he's not an answer for the Sox, obviously.

 

If Salty or Gomez play a substantial amount of first base next year, this team is definitely not going to be a playoff contender.

Posted
I dont see the sox as playoff contenders regardless SFF. They have to really hit it big on the open market to do so. You dont deal away 3 starters from a .500 team (at the time) and expect to get better.
Posted
I dont see the sox as playoff contenders regardless SFF. They have to really hit it big on the open market to do so. You dont deal away 3 starters from a .500 team (at the time) and expect to get better.

 

At the time they were dealt, here were their stats:

 

Gonzalez: .300/.343/.469

Crawford: .282/.306/.479

Beckett: 5-11, 5.23 ERA

 

Those are hardly numbers that will be difficult to replace.

 

Gonzo's .812 OPS is not all that great to be honest. Those numbers can be pretty easily replaced by any number of players, be it a trade for a guy like Corey Hart, or signing someone like LaRoche or Napoli.

 

Crawford only played 31 games, but regardless, Torii Hunter, Shin Soo Choo, Melky Cabrera, Justin Upton, Cody Ross, etc can replicate Crawford's numbers pretty easily.

 

It's not going to be any FA acquisitions or trades that push this team into a contender. It's going to be the rebound by Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, and maybe a little bit of a contribution from a Matt Garza/Anibal Sanchez/etc that we acquire externally.

 

If Lester and Buchholz return to form (3.30-3.50 ERA), this team is going to be right in the mix, no doubt. It isn't going to take a bunch of Josh Hamilton type signings to get them where they need to be. It's going to take pitching, health, and guys just playing career norm baseball.

 

Pedroia and Ellsbury will both almost certainly rebound, Lavarnway will be much better than Salty, as OBP is heavily favored over SLG, Middlebrooks and Ortiz will be healthy again.

 

And I really think that both Lester and Buchholz figured out their mechanical issues (Buch earlier than Lester), and with Farrell as their manager, I think he'll be a big help.

 

Just a quick reminder, last time Farrell was with the organization, Lester had 19 wins, Buch had 17 wins, Lackey had 14 wins, and they all had decent to outstanding ERA's. Not saying he's a miracle worker, but at the same time I think the SP will have a lot more comfort with their coaching staff this year than they have in a while.

Posted
At the time they were dealt, here were their stats:

 

Gonzalez: .300/.343/.469

Crawford: .282/.306/.479

Beckett: 5-11, 5.23 ERA

 

Those are hardly numbers that will be difficult to replace.

 

Gonzo's .812 OPS is not all that great to be honest. Those numbers can be pretty easily replaced by any number of players, be it a trade for a guy like Corey Hart, or signing someone like LaRoche or Napoli.

 

Crawford only played 31 games, but regardless, Torii Hunter, Shin Soo Choo, Melky Cabrera, Justin Upton, Cody Ross, etc can replicate Crawford's numbers pretty easily.

 

It's not going to be any FA acquisitions or trades that push this team into a contender. It's going to be the rebound by Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, and maybe a little bit of a contribution from a Matt Garza/Anibal Sanchez/etc that we acquire externally.

 

If Lester and Buchholz return to form (3.30-3.50 ERA), this team is going to be right in the mix, no doubt. It isn't going to take a bunch of Josh Hamilton type signings to get them where they need to be. It's going to take pitching, health, and guys just playing career norm baseball.

 

Pedroia and Ellsbury will both almost certainly rebound, Lavarnway will be much better than Salty, as OBP is heavily favored over SLG, Middlebrooks and Ortiz will be healthy again.

 

And I really think that both Lester and Buchholz figured out their mechanical issues (Buch earlier than Lester), and with Farrell as their manager, I think he'll be a big help.

 

Just a quick reminder, last time Farrell was with the organization, Lester had 19 wins, Buch had 17 wins, Lackey had 14 wins, and they all had decent to outstanding ERA's. Not saying he's a miracle worker, but at the same time I think the SP will have a lot more comfort with their coaching staff this year than they have in a while.

 

A-Gon is difficult to replace. just cuz he has a down year doesn't mean he's replaceable. He was leading baseball with a .400 BA with RISP, yes ask Gomez, Loney or Napoli to do close to that.

Posted

I feel like the Ross signing is too much like the Shoppach signing last year. I feel like he'll see limited time behind the plate, with Salty dishing out his horrible defense and going up to K every 2 1/2 plate appearances.

 

according to MLBTR Ross is going to have "more than a backup role" which gives me hope, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Posted
I dont see the sox as playoff contenders regardless SFF. They have to really hit it big on the open market to do so. You dont deal away 3 starters from a .500 team (at the time) and expect to get better.

 

Not to mention that the AL East is extremely weak right now. The weakest its been in years.

 

The Yankees have Jeter coming off surgery, is another year older, and was already losing range, ARod who's bat speed is measured with a sun dial, Mo who's coming off of a busted knee, no RF, no C, and a rotation anchored by CC, and after that has quite a few question marks. How will Pineda respond? Pettitte is, what, 41 now? To expect much from him is hardly reasonable. Hughes and Nova both are extremely up and down.

 

The Rays will always have SP, but their offense is as anemic as they come.

 

The O's were a complete flash in the pan and will likely fall back to an 80-81 win next year.

 

The Jays? No.

 

The AL East is as winnable as it's been in years going into 2013.

Posted
A-Gon is difficult to replace. just cuz he has a down year doesn't mean he's replaceable. He was leading baseball with a .400 BA with RISP, yes ask Gomez, Loney or Napoli to do close to that.

 

I hate it when people do this. It's absurd.

 

When you're looking at replacing 2012, you look at 2012's stats. Not how the player is overall. If we're going to replace his production from 2012, it's a .812 OPS. That's it. He had 86 RBI through 123 games, which is very good, but RBI's are a completely situational and opportunistic stat, so I give little credence to it.

Posted
Salty is like Pena at 1B but with less power and defensive skills. If Salty is playing 1B next season, s*** has gone even further down hill. Which is saying something lol

 

No he's not. Pena can actually get on base.

Posted
No he's not. Pena can actually get on base.

 

True, pitchers couldn't walk Salty if they tried.The dude swings at everything :lol:

It still amazes me pitchers still throw him strikes(maybe it's by mistake).

Posted
I hate it when people do this. It's absurd.

 

When you're looking at replacing 2012, you look at 2012's stats. Not how the player is overall. If we're going to replace his production from 2012, it's a .812 OPS. That's it. He had 86 RBI through 123 games, which is very good, but RBI's are a completely situational and opportunistic stat, so I give little credence to it.

 

Yes but it's not like we were a good team and just need to replace that .812 OPS in order to remain a good team. Realistically we need to replace that production with someone better (a lot better) in order to go from mediocre team to good team. The argument then is that Gonzalez going at full strength is that guy which is why he's hard to replace.

Posted
I dont see the sox as playoff contenders regardless SFF. They have to really hit it big on the open market to do so. You dont deal away 3 starters from a .500 team (at the time) and expect to get better.

 

Not to mention that the AL East is extremely weak right now. The weakest its been in years.

 

The Yankees have Jeter coming off surgery, is another year older, and was already losing range, ARod who's bat speed is measured with a sun dial, Mo who's coming off of a busted knee, no RF, no C, and a rotation anchored by CC, and after that has quite a few question marks. How will Pineda respond? Pettitte is, what, 41 now? To expect much from him is hardly reasonable. Hughes and Nova both are extremely up and down.

 

The Rays will always have SP, but their offense is as anemic as they come.

 

The O's were a complete flash in the pan and will likely fall back to an 80-81 win next year.

 

The Jays? No.

 

The AL East is as winnable as it's been in years going into 2013.

 

Yes the Red Sox have a lot of work to do. But this division is up for grabs. Every team in the division has issues and a long off season coming up.

 

Toronto is young and talented but seem rutter less.

 

Red Sox have some talent at the ML level, good depth in the minors at the lower-middle levels and resources to retool.

 

Baltimore has to make the crash back to Earth as soft as possible. What they did in extra inning games/1 run games this season is unsustainable. They have no true stopper in the rotation, and a lot of players had career years or played well above their heads.

 

TB is in their usual predicament.

 

And the Yankees are in a similar situation as the Red Sox are. Team is full of holes, injury ?'s and not much in ML ready talent to help rebuild coming this season or possibly next season from the minors.

 

If anything the Sox could arguably be in a better spot just because they don't have big long term contracts to aging players getting in their way.

Posted
Yes but it's not like we were a good team and just need to replace that .812 OPS in order to remain a good team. Realistically we need to replace that production with someone better (a lot better) in order to go from mediocre team to good team. The argument then is that Gonzalez going at full strength is that guy which is why he's hard to replace.

 

Point is that Gonzalez and his .812 OPS is hardly what was keeping this team from being a contender.

 

It was the pitching. It was Beckett's 5-11, 5.23 ERA. It was Lester's 4.82 ERA. It was Buch's (team leading) 4.56 ERA. It was Doubront's 4.86 ERA.

 

It was the fact that the Sox had 9 pitchers start games in 2012, and not a single one, regardless of how many starts they had, posted an ERA under 4.10. Not one. Morales had 9 starts and had a 4.14, but outside of that, it was Buch's 4.56 ERA that was the best.

 

I would rather see Morales start next season than Doubront, to be completely honest. I think Doubront needs to be trade bait this offseason.

 

Fact is, the Sox scored more runs than 7 of the 10 playoff teams last year.

 

Their team ERA (4.70) was 0.71 points higher than the worst playoff team last year (Rangers, 3.99). And their SP ERA (5.19) was 0.78 points higher than the worst playoff team too (BAL, 4.42).

 

The Sox can replicate their 2012 run production and make the PS, no problem. They have to have Lester and Buchholz return to form or they're complete s*** again.

Posted
I hate it when people do this. It's absurd.

 

When you're looking at replacing 2012, you look at 2012's stats. Not how the player is overall. If we're going to replace his production from 2012, it's a .812 OPS. That's it. He had 86 RBI through 123 games, which is very good, but RBI's are a completely situational and opportunistic stat, so I give little credence to it.

 

Are we looking to replicate 2012's 69 win team or really turn it around? Simply "replacing" last year's stats is a no win proposition. Well, it'd be a 69 win proposition I guess.

Posted
Are we looking to replicate 2012's 69 win team or really turn it around? Simply "replacing" last year's stats is a no win proposition. Well, it'd be a 69 win proposition I guess.

 

We don't need to improve the offense. We need to improve the pitching. The offense, like I said, was better than 7 of the 10 PS teams.

Posted
We need to do both. But realistically improving over a position where we got good production is a lesser priority over improving positions where we got very poor production, such as SP, because of diminishing returns.
Posted
We need to do both. But realistically improving over a position where we got good production is a lesser priority over improving positions where we got very poor production, such as SP, because of diminishing returns.

 

Not to mention the Sox had a well above average offense with little production from Ells and Pedroia, and with both Ortiz and WMB on the shelf the entire final 2 months.

Posted
We don't need to improve the offense. We need to improve the pitching. The offense, like I said, was better than 7 of the 10 PS teams.

 

So that's why you keep posting about Mauer, Moore, Tulo, etc?

Posted
So that's why you keep posting about Mauer, Moore, Tulo, etc?

 

Just because we need to improve our SP doesn't mean we don't need to look at ways to improve our team overall.

 

Mauer and Morse would be very good options at 1B, and Tulo obviously is an MVP caliber SS.

 

You don't just ignore one aspect of the team just because you have other needs.

Posted
Just because we need to improve our SP doesn't mean we don't need to look at ways to improve our team overall.

 

Mauer and Morse would be very good options at 1B, and Tulo obviously is an MVP caliber SS.

 

You don't just ignore one aspect of the team just because you have other needs.

 

No, you just hope to add $70M in payroll for the offense with Tulo, Mauer and Hamilton. What would be left for pitching then?

Posted
No, you just hope to add $70M in payroll for the offense with Tulo, Mauer and Hamilton. What would be left for pitching then?

 

Please find a quote where I wanted to add all 3 of them. I have mentioned all 3 names as potential targets individually, not in aggregate.

 

Don't put words in my mouth and then try to call me out for it. You look like an *******.

Posted

Pitching is the key. They had a lot of underachievers last year--for whatever reason. Ross was a good signing for the pitching. He could make a difference calling a game. Farrell was a good hire for the pitching. I don't know Nieves, but I suspect he was hired over Peterson because Farrell wants to be the pitching coach--more or less. And Peterson isn't that type of coach. Just a hunch.

 

I see Salty being moved. Somebody will want him, and he still has upside.

 

The lineup will take care of itself. They have some hitters and will add a couple more--without spending a lot. After all, Henry is a bit short of loose change these days.

 

The important thing is for guys like Lester and Buchholz to pitch to their potential consistently, and for Lackey and Doubront to step up. Bard and Bailey have to anchor the bullpen. Aceves fits in there somewhere.

 

If the pitching doesn't improve, the hitting will almost be irrelevant.

Posted
Supposedly Ross is "not going to be a starter, but more than a backup." Which is obviously a platoon catcher. If he is not our primary starter and we have been "shopping" Salty for weeks, then what does that make Lavarnway? Hopefully that means that he is going to be in AAA. I do not want Lavarnway as our starting catcher. I know he would not play every game because he would be in a platoon role, but I just don't think he is ready for the majors. His bat was clearly not there last year, and that is the reason why he would be in the majors. His defense could still use some work. Several scouts have said that he still has to work on a lot and to throw a runner out, "everything has to be perfect." I really hope we are seriously considering signing Napoli. He could split time with Ross at catcher. He would also be able to play some 1B, depending on who we sign. This is definitely interesting, but a unique situation.
Posted
It would be weird to have a platoon with two right handed hitters, especially when Ross hits lefties really well

 

Either way, if they trade Salty and stick with Lavarnway and Ross, that is two RH hitters. I would rather have Napoli and Ross in a platoon over Lavarnway and Ross. Napoli had an OPS of .861 vs. RHP's and an OPS of .706 vs. LHP's last year. He was clearly better against RHP's. I have not checked Ross's stats, but if he can hit lefties well and Napoli can hit righties well, then I think that would be a decent platoon. If we do get rid of Salty, I would not mind going after Pierzynski who hits LH if they want one RH catcher and one LH catcher. The only problem is I am not sure how interested Pierzynski would be in playing in Boston.

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