Rotation

[BSN07]

I read and Ellsbury for Lincecum idea somewhere and didn't give it much thought. But thinking about it a little and it seems on the surface to make sense and benefit both sides.

 

Lincecum has some ?'s and is expensive. But he could be a name and a valuable addition to the staff. I wouldn't expect him to be #1, but he's interesting candidate. Even if he isn't spectacular they most likely offer him a qualifying offer and still collect a pick as someone will take a chance on him.

 

SF already has a good staff. They lack offense overall. They could be looking to replace Pagan. Ellsbury is a west coast PAC 10 kid(which makes me think he ends up in Seattle eventually if not back with SF) that could lead off or even hit more toward the middle of the line up. They will save about 12M in the deal. And should have a decent shot at signing Ellsbury once he hits the open market having a good working relationship with Boras and Zito coming off the books. Ellsbury, Posey, Panda is a solid young core for SF's offense.

[Dojji]

If they don't add a pitcher or 2 either through FA or trade, essentially, they will be fielding the same staff that has been failing miserably since September 2011

 

Well no, that's actually wrong. Gone from that group are Matsuzaka and Wakefield, we've replaced them with Doubront and Morales. I'd call that an upgrade. Our bullpen behind the setup man is also much better than it was in late 2011. We rode Bard into the ground in 2011 because Bard was the only guy we could reliably count on. Since then we've added some pretty fair depth. We'll see how it shakes out in 2013, but I do think our pitching staff have steadily, if subtly, improved their talent.

[rjortiz]

I read and Ellsbury for Lincecum idea somewhere and didn't give it much thought. But thinking about it a little and it seems on the surface to make sense and benefit both sides.

 

Lincecum has some ?'s and is expensive. But he could be a name and a valuable addition to the staff. I wouldn't expect him to be #1, but he's interesting candidate. Even if he isn't spectacular they most likely offer him a qualifying offer and still collect a pick as someone will take a chance on him.

 

SF already has a good staff. They lack offense overall. They could be looking to replace Pagan. Ellsbury is a west coast PAC 10 kid(which makes me think he ends up in Seattle eventually if not back with SF) that could lead off or even hit more toward the middle of the line up. They will save about 12M in the deal. And should have a decent shot at signing Ellsbury once he hits the open market having a good working relationship with Boras and Zito coming off the books. Ellsbury, Posey, Panda is a solid young core for SF's offense.

 

Lincecum has negative trade value because of his salary. We could get him for a lot less.

[BSN07]

Lincecum has negative trade value because of his salary. We could get him for a lot less.

 

Probably but add in the fact multiple teams would surely be interested and that makes the price rise up. Lincecum making that much could in the end benefit the Sox as they are probably one of only handful of teams that could take 20M on in one player for this season and not be too phased financially by it.

 

In the end it could take just prospects. But I don't see SF as overly motivated to move him, and it would have to be something that helps them now as they are in their current rosters window to win while remaining reasonably affordable.

[rjortiz]

Probably but add in the fact multiple teams would surely be interested and that makes the price rise up. Lincecum making that much could in the end benefit the Sox as they are probably one of only handful of teams that could take 20M on in one player for this season and not be too phased financially by it.

 

In the end it could take just prospects. But I don't see SF as overly motivated to move him, and it would have to be something that helps them now as they are in their current rosters window to win while remaining reasonably affordable.

 

At $20 million, that price will scare off any suitor.

[a700hitter]

Well no, that's actually wrong. Gone from that group are Matsuzaka and Wakefield, we've replaced them with Doubront and Morales. I'd call that an upgrade. Our bullpen behind the setup man is also much better than it was in late 2011. We rode Bard into the ground in 2011 because Bard was the only guy we could reliably count on. Since then we've added some pretty fair depth. We'll see how it shakes out in 2013, but I do think our pitching staff have steadily, if subtly, improved their talent.

Dice K wasn't pitching in September 2011 and he was a bit player in 2012. Wakefield were already gone last year. If we add no no one, they will be starting the season with the same staff that crapped all over the place last year except they would be swapping out Beckett for Lackey. It would be a 90+ loss team.

[BSN07]

He is worth a one year deal to a lot of teams. But I'm not sure the Sox are one of them. He's going to want to have a chance to win a WS.

 

I honestly don't see him leaving NY.

[a700hitter]

He is worth a one year deal to a lot of teams. But I'm not sure the Sox are one of them. He's going to want to have a chance to win a WS.

 

I honestly don't see him leaving NY.

Who?

[jung]

Looking at Felix and Frankie as improvements is a version of the same mess we got into last year. When you are looking at your 4 and 5 to see improvements....you are already telling yourself that you are in trouble. That is the wrong end of the horse.

 

Like I said in another post, we are just stuck with the wreckage of the Sox propensity to fill every hole with an expensive FA or by emptying the farm for some glittering star. We lost both ways. We lost some pitching talent. We lost some everyday player talent. We signed some guys with one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel for big money and we just decided to take an overly optimistic position on every question mark that there was, giving players all the money without any assurance that the question mark was going to turn into a + sign.

 

We want to nip away at the edges of this mess like looking at your 4 and 5 for improvements in the rotation. But this is likely just going to take some time to reverse.

 

In a perfect world for us, there would be significant pitching upgrades out there that we could spend money on AND guys ready today to come up from the farm and be cost controlled, serious everyday ballplayers. Neither is the case. There aren't pitchers like that we can pluck out of FA even with the money to spend on them and we don't really have guys that are quite ready to come out of the farm system yet and be that kind of everyday player. We have Iggy...Mr Super Glove, Lavs....Mr. Potential Bat....Kalish....Mr. My Shoulder Hurts (but I'm ready now).....the rest of the guys that could come up this year are...Meh guys. Our big splash from the farm was hanging onto WMB. No idea why he slipped through Theos mill and did not end up traded somewhere for somebody.

 

and....

 

We have the 2014 LT Cap penalties which appear a rough enough bruising to the backside that even the Yankees are taking note and planning to make sure they don't get whacked.

[BSN07]

Who?

 

Ichiro

[a700hitter]

Ichiro

Oh, you are in the wrong thread for Ichiro.

[BSN07]

Oh, you are in the wrong thread for Ichiro.

 

Ya I noticed that now

[Lord Snow]

" Zack Greinke's camp predicts the talented veteran will not only become the richest right-hander in history, but may also surpass Cole Hamels' $153MM contract, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN.com. "

 

Thats a lot of hot air. That suggests paying him like he has been pitching like the 2009 Cy Young Award winner since 2009. He hasn't. Greinke is a #2 starter, consistent, but a #2. He has one season with a sub-3 ERA. More often than not his WHIP is over 1.2, those aren't the hallmarks of an Ace. Those are not the kind of numbers that earn $25M annually for 6+ years.

 

I predict Greinke to sign for 5-years $87.5M or 6-years $105M. Zack Greinke is not Cole Hamels and will not be paid like Cole Hamels, even if he is the best free agent starting pitcher on the market this off-season. His combined ERA between 2010 & 2011 was OVER 4, and he is coming off a 3.48 ERA season, good, but not great.

[BSN07]

" Zack Greinke's camp predicts the talented veteran will not only become the richest right-hander in history, but may also surpass Cole Hamels' $153MM contract, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN.com. "

 

Thats a lot of hot air. That suggests paying him like he has been pitching like the 2009 Cy Young Award winner since 2009. He hasn't. Greinke is a #2 starter, consistent, but a #2. He has one season with a sub-3 ERA. More often than not his WHIP is over 1.2, those aren't the hallmarks of an Ace. Those are not the kind of numbers that earn $25M annually for 6+ years.

 

I predict Greinke to sign for 5-years $87.5M or 6-years $105M. Zack Greinke is not Cole Hamels and will not be paid like Cole Hamels, even if he is the best free agent starting pitcher on the market this off-season. His combined ERA between 2010 & 2011 was OVER 4, and he is coming off a 3.48 ERA season, good, but not great.

 

Supply and demand my friend. Helps the drunken sailor Dodgers are interested too. I won't be surprised to see him get close to Hammels money.

[jung]

In the early days and for most of the life of FA in MLB, agents did not make public announcements about what their player's expectations. Now they do it all the time in an effort to set a very high bar.

 

However it is as meaningless today as it ever was. The player's choices are sit or play for the team that offers him the most attractive deal. It does not matter what he wants in the least.

[BSN07]

A Major League source confirmed to WEEI's Rob Bradford that the two teams have indeed discusseda trade that would center around Lester and Myers. According to Bradford, the talks also included the possibility of Boston sending outfield help to Kansas City with some pitching heading back to the Red Sox. He echoes that nothing is close.

 

Interesting.

[SoxSport]

Greinke's home/road splits don't warrant a big contract, but he'll get one because he's the best FA pitcher available. Hopefully, not in Boston.

[SoxSport]

That Lester/Myers proposal probably has them thinking in different directions from big ticket outfielders.

 

If they are intent on Swisher or Hamilton, Myers might have to change their thinking. They are already committed to Gomes, so he ties up LF. One of these other guys would have to play RF.Nava/Kalish are in the mix as well.

 

Trouble with losing Lester is it weakens their pitching, and there aren't many quality replacements.

Signing a FA outfielder doesn't do that.

[Palodios]

" Zack Greinke's camp predicts the talented veteran will not only become the richest right-hander in history, but may also surpass Cole Hamels' $153MM contract, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN.com. "

 

Thats a lot of hot air. That suggests paying him like he has been pitching like the 2009 Cy Young Award winner since 2009. He hasn't. Greinke is a #2 starter, consistent, but a #2. He has one season with a sub-3 ERA. More often than not his WHIP is over 1.2, those aren't the hallmarks of an Ace. Those are not the kind of numbers that earn $25M annually for 6+ years.

 

I predict Greinke to sign for 5-years $87.5M or 6-years $105M. Zack Greinke is not Cole Hamels and will not be paid like Cole Hamels, even if he is the best free agent starting pitcher on the market this off-season. His combined ERA between 2010 & 2011 was OVER 4, and he is coming off a 3.48 ERA season, good, but not great.

 

All for a guy who has a 3.80 career ERA. Yikes.

[jung]

The BS spouted by player agents and their mouthpieces is another one of those elements of contemporary baseball that want to make me puke. I suppose they have to do it these days. If they don't the player probably complains that the agent is not pumping his tires enough. Although in this case they would be better served ratcheting back on the hyperbole at least a little bit. "The richest right-hander in history".....plllleeeease.

[RedSoxNC84]

All for a guy who has a 3.80 career ERA. Yikes.

 

That may be one reason why it hasn't happened yet...

 

 

I think he'll get his money, but it may be awhile.

[Lucienbel]

The Lester deal is interesting. I have had a lot of faith in Lester since he's been around and I still do really. In some ways I see how this trade could be beneficial, largely considering the "pitching" that Boston gets in return. At the same time, the rotation is largely unknown and it seems that Lester still has it in him to turn it around.

 

At the same time, you keep Buchholz, who certainly has a good chance. This should certainly give some confidence in trading Lester. You continuously here how Buchholz can't continue doing what he's doing. In reality, I recall hearing the same thing about Greg Maddux, Derek Lowe, etc. etc. While not to say that Buchholz or any of the examples given are anywhere near the same level, I think Lowe and Maddux are great examples that you don't need to necessarily be the most intimidating or powerful pitcher in the game to win. For this reason alone Buch is certainly worth believing in.

 

In my personal opinion, this is one of the tougher decisions that the Red Sox have had in recent memory. While Wil Myers is highly touted and almost as sure a prospect as anyone could acquire, he still hasn't shown anything yet. Lester has. At the same time, Lester hasn't show that he can bounce back from what has happened recently either.

 

This certainly wouldn't be a positive move for the rotation either at a glance, but could allow a little bit more free money on the pay roll. I can see this move being a positive, assuming that whatever pitchers the Red Sox do pick up (be it through trades or free agency) are good, and assuming that the Red Sox will be able to use a tiny bit of that money saved from Lester (granted it's only...ha...only 10 million or so) to make good improvements either this year or next year. As I said above, it's a tough decision for me personally and I'm really torn either way. I guess since I grew up strongly believing pitching wins, and now believing that Lester can pitch in the future, I lean slightly toward keeping Lester, even if it seems like I completely argued against that after reading my post. It's always fun to argue with yourself.

[BSN07]

The BS spouted by player agents and their mouthpieces is another one of those elements of contemporary baseball that want to make me puke. I suppose they have to do it these days. If they don't the player probably complains that the agent is not pumping his tires enough. Although in this case they would be better served ratcheting back on the hyperbole at least a little bit. "The richest right-hander in history".....plllleeeease.

 

They are all doing the "Scott Boras" smoke blowing technique. Publicly absolutely shoot for the moon and mention things that make it seem like this particular client look like a once and a generation players. And some how it pretty much works for him every time(Edwin Jackson is the only recent case I can think about Boras not getting what he wanted).

 

I'm not sure he get's CC money, but I expect him to sign somewhere between there and Hammels deal. My guess is 6/130 or 7/155.

[RedSoxNC84]

I'm thinking they maybe should go after Sanchez, if they can get him to come off the contract he is asking for, he would be a great addition to the rotation.. not a true #1, but still a very good starter. Then if they sign someone like Haren, Dempster, Marcum, etc. to round out the backend of the rotation, they might not be in such bad shape.

 

Sanchez

Lester

Buchholz

Haren/Lackey

Lackey/Dempster/Marcum/Doubront/Morales

 

That isn't too terrible really..

 

Dempster did get roughed up a bit in the AL, but he's a very durable starter. His stats suggest that he didn't pitch that bad in Texas, but the ballpark there didn't help his numbers. I think a move to fenway would be an improvement for him.. Maybe something closer to his 09-10 numbers. If he could be had for less than the three years he is asking for, it might not be a bad move.

[jacksonianmarch]

Why does everyone think guys are itching to come to Boston on a discount?

[BSN07]

Why does everyone think guys are itching to come to Boston on a discount?

 

I don't think he was implying he would take a discount. Just a scenario in which he comes down from his rumored current asking price.

[BSN07]

The White Sox are looking at adding a "lower-end type" starting pitcher "at the right price," reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). If the club is able to acquire such a pitcher, it would give the Sox freedom to trade Gavin Floyd.

 

Floyd would be a good add. He's not a front line guy, but he's a good mid-back end SP.

[rjortiz]

Why does everyone think guys are itching to come to Boston on a discount?

 

Seriously. Even bargains in this market are coming at $6 million minimum.

[Lucienbel]

Floyd would be a good add. He's not a front line guy, but he's a good mid-back end SP.

 

Agreed, and definitely a guy the team has been interested in for a while now too. I don't see their asking price for him being incredibly high either...he may be a gamble, but likely a pretty cheap one.

[a700hitter]

Agreed, and definitely a guy the team has been interested in for a while now too. I don't see their asking price for him being incredibly high either...he may be a gamble, but likely a pretty cheap one.

I don't think Floyd's price will be very cheap. I'll bet he gets $8 million + per year.