Now What?

[Orange Juiced]

Let's get very serious about addressing the team's biggest need heading into this offseason: starting pitching. Just like we had no idea that the Dodgers would take Crawford, we have no idea what starting pitchers might be available in a trade with the Red Sox. That said, here are some potential candidates for acquisition:

 

Free Agents

Joe Blanton

Zack Greinke

Dan Haren (2013 option)

Tim Hudson (2013 option)

Gavin Floyd (2013 option)

RA Dickey (2013 option)

Francisco Liriano

Kyle Lohse

Shaun Marcum

Brandon McCarthy

Jake Peavy (2013 option)

Anibal Sanchez

Ervin Santana (2013 option)

James Shields (2013 option)

Jake Westbrook (2013 option)

 

Potential Trade Targets

Felix Hernandez (would cost a fortune to acquire)

Tim Lincecum (makes a ton of $$, currently having a bad year)

Cliff Lee (Phils might be in rebuilding mode soon)

Roy Halladay (see Lee, Cliff)

Matt Garza

Josh Johnson

Wandy Rodriguez

Jason Vargas

Edinson Volquez

Jair Jurrjens

 

Ideally, they'd ship about 5 prospects to Seattle for Felix Hernandez. But I don't think that's going to happen. Trying to be realistic here (though we all thought we were being realistic when we said that there was NO WAY anyone would take Crawford or Beckett without the Sox eating a TON of money....and amazingly it happened).

 

If the Sox are committed to acquiring a true #1 starter, Felix would be the first choice, obviously, but again, he's going to be very hard to get. I think it's more likely that they trade for a guy like Halladay or Lincecum. Halladay hasn't been as good this year as he normally is, and that's understandable, considering that he's 37. He has this year and then 2013 left on his contract, so the Sox would only have to pay him for one year (a very expensive year...~20 mil). But in his last 5 starts he's been awesome, so it appears that he's back in the form that makes him a true ace. If the Sox traded for him, they'd have to see him as either a 1-year guy or as a guy they'd look to extend a few more years after that, when he'd probably get paid ace money but not really be an ace anymore.

 

Lincecum is more intriguing. Young, dynamic, with a tremendous MLB resume. But he's having a bad year and he makes $22 mil in 2013. Still, if the Giants believe he's peaked, then letting him go for a solid package of prospects might make some sense, especially if one of the prospects is a near MLB ready SP (see: De La Rosa or Webster).

 

Or the Sox could go the non-ace route and just accumulate a staff of really solid pitchers, 1-5. Keeping Lester, Buchholz, and Lackey (who I actually think has a pretty good chance of being solid next year, after fully recovering from TJ surgery), and adding, say, Brandon McCarthy (era of 3.32 and 3.12 in 2011 and 2012, respectively) and Anibal Sanchez (not pitching well for Detroit but has been solid the past few years) would make for a very nice rotation.

 

So I don't know the route the Sox want to take, but there are some intriguing SP arms that could potentially be available.

[jung]

Lincecom's velo is way down and he looks ridiculously hittable at times. I would not touch Lincecom with a ten foot pole. I don't think his velo is coming back and I actually think Beckett looks better under similar circumstances than Lincecom looks. Tim would be getting killed over here.

[RedSoxNC84]

Maybe we can get Roger Clemens on a one year deal.

[SouthieFanatic]

Maybe we can get Roger Clemens on a one year deal.

 

Maybe we should just dig up Cy Young while we're at it

[Orange Juiced]

Lincecom's velo is way down and he looks ridiculously hittable at times. I would not touch Lincecom with a ten foot pole. I don't think his velo is coming back and I actually think Beckett looks better under similar circumstances than Lincecom looks. Tim would be getting killed over here.

 

I totally hear you on that. But he's a very intriguing trade candidate because he might not cost that much to get him, and he only has one year left on his contract, so if it's a mistake, it's not going to be a long-term killer. If he regains his old form, however, then suddenly you've added one of the best pitchers in the sport, and then perhaps you could give him a couple year extension.

 

A risk, but it's only a one-year risk. Not saying they should do it, but he might be available relatively cheaply, and it could really pay off.

[RedSoxNC84]

Maybe we should just dig up Cy Young while we're at it

 

I've got the shovel.

[DocHolliday]

With the sudden reduction in future payroll commitments, I think the first thing the Sox should do from a LT perspective is to enhance their scouting and player development personnel and facilities - particularly in international markets. The new rules with the draft slotting, reduction in compensation picks, and the small market lottery rounds all make it difficult for the Red Sox to solely rely on the draft for their player development. Most years, they won't have a top 15 pick like they will in next year's draft because, hopefully, they will return to being successful. They will have to add to their current resources in the development/scouting departments to remain competitive in the long run.

 

From a more short term perspective, I still feel they will be best off avoiding the high priced FA (Hamilton & Grienke) but should be big players in the next tier down. Position players should be guys who fit the needs of the team and have the work ethic and personality to thrive in Boston. These types can be signed for shorter term deals and can be used to supplement the core of the team that remains. Guys like Mike Napoli and Cody Ross come to mind.

 

The pitching is going to be improved long term with renewed commitment to the farm system to generate the supply. In some cases, trades can be made when the system is thin. The top tier of the pitching free agent market should be viewed the same way proposition bets on the craps table are - with much scrutiny and a lot of risk. Going forward, I hope the FO uses the FA market for pitchers as a way of finding value for the back end of the rotation and supporting bullpen spots. In this offseason, I think they can wait out the market and acquire guys on value laden, short term deals to help fill the gaps.

[Taliesin]

We'd be better off bringing back Heidi...

 

Miss ya, J, hope all is well. TMW stopped by yesterday.

 

Miss you too Yaz...TMW and I may or may not be still in contact..hanging out at The Peach Pit with Priestley and Billyboy doing bumps.

[onlybereaved]

Are we most likely dealing the guys we just picked up from LAD?

 

We pretty much have our infield set for next year minus 1B, no?

 

Curious as to your opinions

[example1]

Free Agents

Joe Blanton

Zack Greinke

Dan Haren (2013 option)

Tim Hudson (2013 option)

Gavin Floyd (2013 option)

RA Dickey (2013 option)

Francisco Liriano

Kyle Lohse

Shaun Marcum

Brandon McCarthy

Jake Peavy (2013 option)

Anibal Sanchez

Ervin Santana (2013 option)

James Shields (2013 option)

Jake Westbrook (2013 option)

 

Potential Trade Targets

Felix Hernandez (would cost a fortune to acquire)

Tim Lincecum (makes a ton of $$, currently having a bad year)

Cliff Lee (Phils might be in rebuilding mode soon)

Roy Halladay (see Lee, Cliff)

Matt Garza

Josh Johnson

Wandy Rodriguez

Jason Vargas

Edinson Volquez

Jair Jurrjens

 

 

I was wondering tonight whether the Sox might use their new flexibility to go after a guy like Lee, or Lincecum. Lincecum is owed $22m for 2013 then a FA. Lee has 3 seasons at $25m each starting in 2013.

 

How much good would it do them to land a guy like Cliff Lee? I honestly don't know. His salary is absurd, and has some length. A guy like Lincecum might be good enough against unfamiliar opponents for a year that he could rebound somewhat. His stuff is less-good, but Lincecum with poor stuff is better than your average pitcher.

 

I don't love the idea, but he would be a one year deal and might be available without too much difficulty.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

Now what?

I have a feeling for the next 2 years we will know what it's like to be a KC Royals fan.

[YAZMAN]

Miss you too Yaz...TMW and I may or may not be still in contact..hanging out at The Peach Pit with Priestley and Billyboy doing bumps.

 

Funny,I was just enjoying a cool, refreshing Mustang Menthol while greasing the chain on my Huffy and I had the urge to crank up some VH.

[SoxSport]

The next step will be getting a new manager as soon as the season is over. And the FO will get their way this time. Maybe Bogar. Hopefully Mills.

 

Bobby V got suckered taking this job, but he'll get away with 2 years' pay--they can now afford to pay him off.

[DocHolliday]

I totally hear you on that. But he's a very intriguing trade candidate because he might not cost that much to get him, and he only has one year left on his contract, so if it's a mistake, it's not going to be a long-term killer. If he regains his old form, however, then suddenly you've added one of the best pitchers in the sport, and then perhaps you could give him a couple year extension.

 

A risk, but it's only a one-year risk. Not saying they should do it, but he might be available relatively cheaply, and it could really pay off.

 

It makes no sense to me to trade for a $22 M pitcher - even if it's a 1 year deal.

 

Why would SF want to give up the guy in the first place? If they only owe him 1 year, they aren't likely to trade him when his value is at an all time low and he's due for a bounce back year before he hits FA.

[Palodios]

It makes no sense to me to trade for a $22 M pitcher - even if it's a 1 year deal.

 

Why would SF want to give up the guy in the first place? If they only owe him 1 year, they aren't likely to trade him when his value is at an all time low and he's due for a bounce back year before he hits FA.

 

I like the idea of Lincecum, personally. The Red Sox need star players on short deals/contract years.

 

The Giants have put big money into their other young players recently (probably because they don't see Lincecum as someone they can afford), and only have one more year of control over him. Unfortunately because of his starpower, it'll definitely take a quality prospect like Swihart/Owens to pull him here, and then he'll have to adjust to the AL East, so it might not be a great fit.

[Behindenemylines]

Lincecum is probably having a worse season then Beckett was, and makes more then he was as well. I don't think it is a good idea to invest $$$$$ on Lincecum.

[SoxSport]

Stay away from the big tickets out there. Develop the young players. Give them a chance.

 

That means unloading Ortiz, too. He hits but is a liability in every other way. A one dimensional guy who is taking up a roster spot for a position player.

[SouthieFanatic]

If they can get Lincecum for something relatively cheap i'd pull the trigger. He is having a horrible year yes, but not many players in the AL east have seen him. These are the best of the best it's their job to figure/work out the kinks. I think he'll come back and be a very productive pitcher next season whether it's with us, SF or elsewhere

[Behindenemylines]

Lincecum is struggling this year in a pitchers park in the National League is not an answer for success in the AL East. Sox are not going to invest 20 million or more on one pitcher that is not almost a sure thing at this time. If they get a starting pitcher it will be in the 12 to 15 million range and be part of a rotation with Lester and Buchholtz.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lincecum likely has a structural issue. He's been downright abused, he has a small frame and has now magically lost his fastball and his command. He's on the hook for $22 mil next season, so my guess is San Fran would ask for prospects and the whole nut to be covered since they can try to spin it as a down yr. But my guess is he goes into the spring next yr, has trouble ramping up and they find some labral or cuff damage

[Behindenemylines]

I totally agree, Lincecum is not a stud starter to invest 22 million. Sox should stay clear of this one.

[SouthieFanatic]

Lincecum is struggling this year in a pitchers park in the National League is not an answer for success in the AL East. Sox are not going to invest 20 million or more on one pitcher that is not almost a sure thing at this time. If they get a starting pitcher it will be in the 12 to 15 million range and be part of a rotation with Lester and Buchholtz.

 

That's why I said cheap. I wasn't saying invest that money in Lincecum. If that's what he would demand then it's obviously no. I don't think he can ask for that after this season though. He'd have alot of balls telling someone to pay him 20 annually after this season

[KCBRUIN]

Stay away from the big tickets out there. Develop the young players. Give them a chance.

 

That means unloading Ortiz, too. He hits but is a liability in every other way. A one dimensional guy who is taking up a roster spot for a position player.

 

I agree with staying away from big ticket players out there but totally disagree with letting Ortiz walk. He's the only consistent hitter we have. I don't see what him taking a roster spot from a position player has to do with it since the position player would have to DH anyway. Ortiz hit .318 with 23 HR and 60 RBI in only 90 games. That's pretty damn good, and a pace of 46 HR and 120 RBI. Trading for that kind of production would cost a fortune.

[jung]

I was in favor of letting Ortiz walk before I saw how he came into camp this season and before the Sox changed the entire profile of the team.

 

The point I think we are missing here is that Ortiz does not have many places to go...he does not have many options...fewer now that he is going to end the season injured. It will not take much money to sign Ortiz and keep him in the middle of that order for at least next year and possibly the year after.

[Orange Juiced]

What happens if the Sox offer Ortiz 1 year, $10 million? Is he going to say no? If he says no, where is he going to play? Maybe New York would sign him (he would hit a ton of HR in that band-box of a right field), but their DH philosophy has changed, and they need a spot for ARod to get lots of AB besides 3b. There just aren't a lot of landing spots for him - has to be a big-market team in contention and in need of a DH. Not a lot of those out there.

[SoxSport]

Time for the Red Sox to question their pitching methods. Every year, now, about this time, there is bullpen burnout. Last night, with Aceves, just another example.

 

They have to be doing something wrong. It isn't just a question of personnel--it's how the personnel are used. Now I know it's hard to teach an old dog new tricks--especially for dogs who are up the management ladder. But look at how this team has played the game the last few years--sneering at stolen bases, refusing to move runners, using 5 relievers in 8-1 routes--winning--so nobody is available in close games when really needed. Players who take so long to rehab they get other injuries during rehab!This sort of BS which seems to come from the FO: Valentine seems to be constrained to the same operational procedures as Francona.

 

Last night, before the game, V was asked who would be playing SS. His response was--well, I haven't heard yet. That tells you something.

 

This club needs to clean house--upstairs--before it can get back on track. And you know it ain't gonna happen.

[SoxSport]

I was in favor of letting Ortiz walk before I saw how he came into camp this season and before the Sox changed the entire profile of the team.

 

The point I think we are missing here is that Ortiz does not have many places to go...he does not have many options...fewer now that he is going to end the season injured. It will not take much money to sign Ortiz and keep him in the middle of that order for at least next year and possibly the year after.

 

Absolutely. But he is loved by Lucchino and Henry, who are willing to ignore his selfish attitude. They figure he's a fan fixture. Plus he can hit, if he is in shape and healthy--open to question increasingly.The next mistake they make will be to waste a big 2 year contract on him, when nobody else would sign him for a year at

[SoxSport]

I agree with staying away from big ticket players out there but totally disagree with letting Ortiz walk. He's the only consistent hitter we have. I don't see what him taking a roster spot from a position player has to do with it since the position player would have to DH anyway. Ortiz hit .318 with 23 HR and 60 RBI in only 90 games. That's pretty damn good, and a pace of 46 HR and 120 RBI. Trading for that kind of production would cost a fortune.

 

Yeah, he was good this year, until he hurt himself walking around the bases. At his age, you can't spend big bucks with multi year contracts on a 37yo guy who is showing he is fragile.

 

Ok. You sign him for a year at $10 mil. Understand that he has missed the last two moinths of the season. That's about a third of the season. He was paid $14.5 mil to play 2/3 of the season this year--23 HR/60 RBI. That's pricey for his output. And his full season days are likely over at his age.

 

Most teams these days like to rotate the DH among position players. That way, guys get at bats when they aren't in the field. And the team has more roster flexibility--adding a position player, while the team can carry as many as 12 pitchers.

[rhfil]

Something has to be wrong with the way Sox pitchers get ready to start the game. Is there a mound in the bullpen? The starting pitcher should have some kind of strategy of which pitches he needs to have ready against the opponent and be concentrating on having those pitches available when he faces batters. Between the bullpen prep and the mound warmup he needs to have those pitches mastered. I have seen both pitching coaches out in the bullpen watching the starting pitcher get ready. Are they just out there socializing? Make sure the starting pitcher is ready to pitch.

Iglesias finallly got a chance to start and went hitless. Why is it the Red Sox bring up players and then give them the worst possible chance to succeed? They bring up pitchers to start against the Yankees and Iglesias to hit against Weaver. Is it trial by fire? Why not start players in the best possible chance to succeed? Iglesias would have had a better chance against the KC pitching but sat on the bench.

And why did Valentine not sacrifice bunt in the 8th and 9th innings when the leadoff batters got on? I lost a lot of respect for him as a manager when he failed to do that. Both Ellsbury and Iglesias could have advanced runners.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's an organizational philosophy and you have a trigger happy manager. One of the compromises for next yr has to be to allow the starters a longer leash. They have to be able to go 120 pitches or else your pen will die in August again