Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[Orange Juiced]

Here are Hamilton's OPS during the past 5 seasons:

2009: .741 (89 games)

2010: 1.044 (133 games) (MVP)

2011: .882 (121 games)

2012: .930 (148 games)

 

His production is really impressive, but is he really a $30m player with those numbers?

 

OBP:

 

2009: .315

2010: .411

2011: .346

2012: .354

 

He's not a guy who, if his power disappears, is going to make up for it with great ABs.

 

Finally, if there's a chance that he's been juicing/HGH'ing, I would be afraid of a post-contract letdown.

 

 

If the Sox sign him I will be excited like most other people, but it doesn't seem like he's a sure-bet to be better than, say, Adrian Gonzalez was yet he would cost 10m more per-season.

 

The Sox have money to burn right now. If they're going to go after Hamilton, I suggest going crazy with a 2-year, $60-70 million deal. No joke. They really can afford that, and if Hamilton is healthy after those two years, he'll just be 34 and will be able to get *another* pretty nice contract. Hopefully not from the Sox, but from someone.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hamilton at 32 million per year would be out of hand.

 

Would you rather have Stephen Drew, Napoli, and Kuroda, on short term deals or Josh Hamilion on a four year deal? The Red Sox have too many holes to fill-- Signing Hamilton would be the equivalent of putting a golden spoon underneath a leaky ceiling.

 

Thats the thing. The Sox CAN do BOTH.

 

There is no choosing here. Even if the Sox spent $30mm on Hamilton, and then another $30mm on the others, they are still going to be at the $145mm range.

 

Hell, they could even go trade for Mauer and still only be at $165.

 

Not saying they should. I'm only saying that's how much money they have.

[rjortiz]

Not all dollars are created equal.

 

If the Sox have a hole, they can go out and overspend on a player like Hamilton to limit the back end of the deal to only 4 years and still get someone who helps them immediately.

 

They're putting too many resources into one player. If they were one player away from being a championship caliber team, than I would agree with this move, but you're talking about committing 1/5th to 1/6th of the entire payroll on one player. It's too much.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Sox have money to burn right now. If they're going to go after Hamilton, I suggest going crazy with a 2-year, $60-70 million deal. No joke. They really can afford that, and if Hamilton is healthy after those two years, he'll just be 34 and will be able to get *another* pretty nice contract. Hopefully not from the Sox, but from someone.

 

Exactly.

 

If the Sox gave him something like 2/$68, he could still go out and get 4/$100 when he's 34 and make his $170 in 1 less year.

 

It's ok for the Sox to go crazy on short term deals like this. It's the length of the deals that bites them in the ass.

[SoxFanForsyth]

They're putting too many resources into one player. If they were one player away from being a championship caliber team, than I would agree with this move, but you're talking about committing 1/5th to 1/6th of the entire payroll on one player. It's too much.

 

The thing is that it's a short amount of time, so it's not going to burn them. It gives them a great shot at winning a WS in each of the next 4 years, and they still have massive amounts of payroll flexibility.

 

If they signed Hamilton to a $30mm deal right now, they would be sitting at around $120mm in payroll. If they are willing to go up to the $175 mark, or even the $189 mark by 2014, that still gives them almost $70mm to spend on everything else.

 

If it hamstrung them, sure, I agree, don't overpay. But it doesn't. They still have truckloads of payroll flexibility and they lose no minor league talent.

[jung]

The problem with offering Hamilton only two years and really big money is that it could easily just be money down a rat hole. There are simply to many question marks in the Sox pitching right now and while there are pitchers that can help bolster the pitching there really is not a good way to feel like you are truly set with your rotation in the short term. If you could get your hands on pitching that would resolve the rotation issues, you would spend the money there first.

 

As it is, if you sign Hamilton for two years, those two years could be here and gone and all you might have done was win a few more 12-8 games than you would have otherwise. Remember, right now the Sox have:

Buchholz, who has not proven he can give you 30-32 starts in back to back seasons for a good long time, MUST give us 30 starts and close to or over 200 innings

Lester, at this point working to resolve his mechanical issues, having made solid headway toward the end of 2012

Lackey, coming off of TJ, complete question mark

Felix and Frankie, as yet young and developing

and....the flotsam and jetsam that make up the remainder of current Sox rotation guys

 

So lets say the Sox sign Kuroda...heck of an addition but he would have to remain healthy and pitch solid through the entire season and ALL of the Sox rotation question marks would have to fall to the plus side of the ledger.

 

There are no sure things available out there for the Sox to bring in at a price they are likely to pay yet they must bring in at least one quality SP AND the guys that they are banking on being in the rotation MUST all work out.

 

That is just to much of a long shot to bet two years at huge money on Hamilton. If the Sox were to sign Hamilton, four years is just about perfect....not to long, not to short. Not saying they should pursue him but the term should be four years, not longer and not shorter.

[Palodios]

Thats the thing. The Sox CAN do BOTH.

 

There is no choosing here. Even if the Sox spent $30mm on Hamilton, and then another $30mm on the others, they are still going to be at the $145mm range.

 

Hell, they could even go trade for Mauer and still only be at $165.

 

Not saying they should. I'm only saying that's how much money they have.

 

This is the kind of idea that got them into trouble in the first place. Remember two years ago when the FO didn't want to spend for a better SP midseason? Or last year when we went into free agency, and ended up trading away our NLCS MVP starting shortstop, and relied on pitching re-treads instead of rebuilding a starting rotation?

 

It isn't just about today, or this year. The Red Sox need to look into resigning Pedroia/Lester. They need to have money available if a good mid-season trade comes up. They need to look into locking up younger guys like Middlebrooks.

 

They need to rebuild-as-they-go with short term deals and intelligent, disciplined longer team deals. Hamilton is not a disciplined long term deal.

[Orange Juiced]

The problem with offering Hamilton only two years and really big money is that it could easily just be money down a rat hole. There are simply to many question marks in the Sox pitching right now and while there are pitchers that can help bolster the pitching there really is not a good way to feel like you are truly set with your rotation in the short term. If you could get your hands on pitching that would resolve the rotation issues, you would spend the money there first.

 

As it is, if you sign Hamilton for two years, those two years could be here and gone and all you might have done was win a few more 12-8 games than you would have otherwise. Remember, right now the Sox have:

Buchholz, who has not proven he can give you 30-32 starts in back to back seasons for a good long time, MUST give us 30 starts and close to or over 200 innings

Lester, at this point working to resolve his mechanical issues, having made solid headway toward the end of 2012

Lackey, coming off of TJ, complete question mark

Felix and Frankie, as yet young and developing

and....the flotsam and jetsam that make up the remainder of current Sox rotation guys

 

So lets say the Sox sign Kuroda...heck of an addition but he would have to remain healthy and pitch solid through the entire season and ALL of the Sox rotation question marks would have to fall to the plus side of the ledger.

 

There are no sure things available out there for the Sox to bring in at a price they are likely to pay yet they must bring in at least one quality SP AND the guys that they are banking on being in the rotation MUST all work out.

 

That is just to much of a long shot to bet two years at huge money on Hamilton. If the Sox were to sign Hamilton, four years is just about perfect....not to long, not to short. Not saying they should pursue him but the term should be four years, not longer and not shorter.

 

Four years is too long. He'll be 32 in May. They'd be paying him for ages 32, 33, 34, and 35. I think that's too long. Three years max.

[jung]

I would love 3 years but if they want Hamilton, I don't see 3 years getting it done.

[jung]

By the way I supposes I should state a position. I would prefer that the Sox stay out of the Hamilton sweepstakes. They have enough to do as it is.

[Palodios]

Here's an idea. Hamilton's poor postseason, and the huge number of outfielders available this FA hurts his contract status. Give him a 1/35- 1/40 deal to rebuild value.

[SoxSport]

So now we hear Henry is shutting down his investment business:

 

http://www.boston.com/businessupdates/2012/11/09/red-sox-owner-john-henry-shutting-down-investment-firm/qAfOvJf5AAgTAqZKcpDu0L/story.html

 

He is in worse financial shape than anyone thought. That explains the Red Sox sell-off.

 

I think that puts a damper on major free agent acquisitions.

 

I would not be surprised if the Red Sox or that team in England are sold in the next year or two.

[iortiz]

So now we hear Henry is shutting down his investment business:

 

http://www.boston.com/businessupdates/2012/11/09/red-sox-owner-john-henry-shutting-down-investment-firm/qAfOvJf5AAgTAqZKcpDu0L/story.html

 

He is in worse financial shape than anyone thought. That explains the Red Sox sell-off.

 

I think that puts a damper on major free agent acquisitions.

 

I would not be surprised if the Red Sox or that team in England are sold in the next year or two.

 

According to fortune Red Sox and Mets were the only teams with red number in the bottom line in 2011. I wouldn't be surprised if he sales the team even this year.

[jung]

Well as early as the 2011 regular season I was posting here that the Sox were in trouble at the bottom line and we needed to stop looking at the revenue numbers when the team was running in the red regardless.

 

What the hell is going on with these guys. Looks to me like Henry might have to sell just to keep living in the style that he has grown accustomed to. Most of his paper profits must be tied up in the Red Sox at this point. Sounds like he is getting to the point where he is going to need that money.

 

Talk about coming crashing down in short order...Jeez

 

Henry probably has a Theo voodoo doll that he sticks pins into these days. Although JH probably has nobody to blame but himself. Apparently could not keep his baseline business, the real goose that laid the golden egg in line.

[jung]

I guess we can take some comfort in realizing that JH must not have been running a ponzi scheme. I heard a couple weeks ago that the investment portfolios in the investment company had suffered 30% losses. Once folks start to pull the plug, with those kinds of losses you start coming up short of cash pretty quickly if you have been scheming. But 30% losses....Holy Mother of God...that is just hideous performance.

[NativeBostonian]

I've been seeing Hamilton's name being thrown into discussions lately. But, I don't think it would be smart for the Red Sox to pick up a recovering alcoholic when they have a problem with beer in the clubhouse.

[BSN07]

I hope Mark Cuban buys the team

[jung]

Well some have been out and out predicting the near term sale of the team here and others have been close to it. Although I don't think any of us would have considered the demise of the investment firm as the catalyst for a sale.

 

I am really beginning to think it is in the best interests for the Red Sox Organization and Team anyway. More and more this is looking like a group that is just plain past it.

 

I had not looked at the investment firm much. Had to have been a high risk, high potential reward kind of deal to sustain 30% losses. Stll and all, losses of that scale suggest a stubbornness that I think we have seen in the way the club has been run as well.

 

Probably has had something to do with the fact that it has been bricks and bats and Jerseys and caps and kitchen sinks as well.

[jung]

The following includes clips from the email that the investment firm sent its remaining clients just this week

 

“This is to notify you that JWH has determined to cease managing client assets effective December 31, 2012,” Amy B. Hanson, a marketing manager of the firm, wrote in an email to clients on Friday. “We will not be providing performance information going forward.”

 

Apparently JH intends using the firm to trade for his own purposes but that will be it.

 

While the losses are pretty bad on a percentage basis, I don't wonder if investors got uncomfortable with allowing JWH to trade for them in highly leveraged investments while trying to run FSG. I would be willing to bet that as bad as the losses have been most of the decline in funds under management has simply been defections. As much as we comment about JH and lost focus regarding the Sox, it may have all just gotten to be to much at a time in his life when he just was not prepared for a full commitment to anything.

 

They were managing $2.5B in 2006 and are down to $100M now. Surely some of that is clients simply pulling out. Their losses this year from trading are pretty nasty.

[Station 13]

Sox just sign David Ross. This probably ends Salty in Boston. Likely take Napoli out the running too. He wants to catch.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Sox just sign David Ross. This probably ends Salty in Boston. Likely take Napoli out the running too. He wants to catch.

 

I like this deal a lot. David Ross is a very underrated player. Throws a ton of runners out (44% CS% last year).

 

Good pick up. Good start to controlling the running game.

 

Like you said, probably the end of Salty with the Sox, which is fine. The Sox need to get away from having any sub-.300 OBP guys outside of Iglesias.

[Station 13]

I like this deal a lot. David Ross is a very underrated player. Throws a ton of runners out (44% CS% last year).

 

Good pick up. Good start to controlling the running game.

 

Like you said, probably the end of Salty with the Sox, which is fine. The Sox need to get away from having any sub-.300 OBP guys outside of Iglesias.

 

His CS will go down catching Doubront, who my grandma could run on. Haha

[SoxFanForsyth]

Rosenthal reports that Ross will be "more than a back up but not a starter".

 

I would think that would make him a late inning defensive replacement and a mentor to Lavarnway.

[SoxSport]

Hard to tell what the Ross signing means for Salty or Lav. Maybe Lav goes to AAA, maybe one or the other gets traded. My guess is Ross platoons with Salty, and Lav goes to AAA or is used as trade bait.

 

I don't see Hamilton at all at this point. In fact, I see a situation not far removed from last year, when they tried to improve with trades and retreads rather than big ticket free agents. Henry is in bad shape financially--his hedge fund speculation business has caught up with him. He is now dependent on his sports holdings for income. Hardly a hobby anymore. He's smart enough to know it's time to sell.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ross deal is 2 years/$6.2mm

[Orange Juiced]

I really hope that someone becomes enamored with Salty's legitimate power at the C position (25 hr in just 405 ab) that the Sox can pull off a pretty nice trade. I like Ross/Lavarnway at C for the next two seasons.

[jung]

Ross signing makes a lotta' sense. I would prefer they trade Salty and keep Lav and Ross. Salty has not got much in the way upside defensively and he just drives me batty when he is back there.

[Palodios]

6 million for an aging backup catcher? I have mixed feelings about that. It feels like a NickPuntoian signing to me. He's a bench player getting paid more than Cody Ross last year -- the Red Sox paid him what they did in order to get him away from the Braves.

 

This makes me think that the Red Sox may be out of the running for Mike Napoli. If three catchers felt like a lot, four seems unmanageable. I don't think stashing Lavarnway in Pawtucket will help this team much-- maybe he's more suited for first base?

[jung]

I think the Sox did it cause they wanted to buy some stability at the position for a couple years. Lavs is a question mark at this point and Salty is well Salty. Of the two, I think it is Salty that ends up being traded to somebody for something with Ross providing a degree of security for Lavs. Sox might be thinking that they are stuck having to step up and give Lavs the position in order for him to continue to progress but want a guy to help him along.

 

I don't think they will keep Ross, Salty and Lavs and I think they are out on Napoli.

[jung]

Dodgers rumored to be chasing Hunter hard and trying to land either Sanchez, Greinke or Kuroda.

 

I suspect they will outbid anybody for any player they actually want as they are in that kinda' mood at the moment.