Looking To The Future

[jung]

Well it just gets better and better.

 

John Dennis reported on EEI this morning and now picked up elsewhere that V held a team meeting while the team was still on the west coast in an effort to discuss focus, attitude, things that relate to some extent to the team's on-field performance.

 

Apparently, Ortiz got up and walked out of the meeting. I am going to guess here but given Ortiz comments about this being his clubhouse, I suspect Ortiz likely walked out because V did not first consult him about such a meeting.

 

V goes out of his way to say that he does not venture into that clubhouse. So I suspect V did not believe that his desire to hold a team meeting and discussing things that play into on-field performance really has anything to do with Ortiz and his ownership of the clubhouse and player clubhouse demeanor.

 

However I do think the Sox set themselves up for this. Upper management has supported the players over their manager. While upper management controls the purse strings that dictate whether Ortiz gets what he wants or not, they will at a moment's notice cut the knees out from under V is he attempts to rein in any high visibility player including Ortiz.

 

In the meantime much like I feel confident that Youk would have made life very difficult for the Sox had they not gotten him outta' here, I am also confident that all of Ortiz recent public comments are based in his desire for a long term contract.

 

He wants us all to know that this is his clubhouse because he somehow believes that ownership of the clubhouse also is something that should be considered in his contract negotiations. In addition Ortiz likely believes that not only should V have come to him first before this meeting but also thinks that the topic itself suggests that Ortiz is not doing a good job relating to issues of the clubhouse he says he owns.

[DocHolliday]

Been out of town the last few weeks but wanted to bump this with the decisive series coming up this week with the Rangers and Yankees.

 

Today's reports had the Red Sox rumored to be in talks with the Marlins centered around pitchers Josh Johnson and Anibel Sanchez. Just heard Sanchez is heading to Detroit so that takes one possibility out.

 

Obviously, their play over the next 6 games will be a great barometer of their ability to compete this season. The glaring need, both this year and going forward, is pitching.

 

Would it be worth it long term to deal away prospects for a 1 or 2 year pre free agency fix in the rotation given the current state of the rotation?

[SoxSport]

The Detroit deal is a strong signal that Cherington needs to get off his ass.

[DocHolliday]

They did give up quite a bit in prospect Jacob Turner in that deal. That's essentially the Red Sox dealing Matt Barnes and a minor league catcher. Still hasn't proven anything at the Major League level, but there's quite a lot to like.

[a700hitter]

The Detroit deal is a strong signal that Cherington needs to get off his ass.

By the time that happens, it will be too late and all the prime time guys will be gone.

[example1]

Yeah, Jacob Turner was quite a bit to give up. Very good prospect.

 

Let's just admit it: if the Sox were in win now mode they would have been more active trying to, like, do stuff. If they were in win tomorrow mode they would be more active trying to do stuff.

 

They are in "let's not admit we're not in win-now mode, so we can sell tickets". That's the worst mode to be in.

 

Fortunately, their losses on the field have trumped their attempts to compete, so they are obviously in sell mode. Ben might as well embrace it, and take advantage of some of the freedom that allows (like trading stars for pieces nobody has heard of).

 

Does anyone want Aceves down the stretch? I bet he would fetch a good price.

[Palodios]

Yeah, Jacob Turner was quite a bit to give up. Very good prospect.

 

Let's just admit it: if the Sox were in win now mode they would have been more active trying to, like, do stuff. If they were in win tomorrow mode they would be more active trying to do stuff.

 

They are in "let's not admit we're not in win-now mode, so we can sell tickets". That's the worst mode to be in.

 

Fortunately, their losses on the field have trumped their attempts to compete, so they are obviously in sell mode. Ben might as well embrace it, and take advantage of some of the freedom that allows (like trading stars for pieces nobody has heard of).

 

Does anyone want Aceves down the stretch? I bet he would fetch a good price.

 

I certainly hope that the FO figures out that they need to firesale. They're 5 games back in the loss column right now, and that's just for a one game playoff that could very easily send them back home. That one extra game of revenue isn't worth getting under the luxury tax this year, or possibly build up to the best farm system in the majors.

 

They need to target teams who want to win this year, and willing to give up elite prospects. If it takes three guys to get one elite prospect, do it. If they can get rid of Beckett, do it. Try to sign Ross long term, and if not sell high high on this year's best hitter against lefties. There's gold at the deadline this year, if Dempster told us anything.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Tigers had to make that move. They are leading the central and have an obvious need at starter. The sox have obvious needs all over the place with multiple starters also needed. They are now falling like a rock, going up against the likes of Texas, NY, and Detroit. This week will determine their fate. If the sox somehow take the next 2 in Texas, and take 2 of 3 from NY then it might be worth a shot at some arms on July 31st. If they lost 4 of the next 5, then it might be time to have a firesale in a short window

[jacksonianmarch]

They did give up quite a bit in prospect Jacob Turner in that deal. That's essentially the Red Sox dealing Matt Barnes and a minor league catcher. Still hasn't proven anything at the Major League level' date=' but there's quite a lot to like.[/quote']

 

Turner is actually worth more than Barnes, IMO, since he's had success at the higher levels. That is a humongous trade for a guy with shoulder issues, who has sucked over the last 2 months, and who is a FA at year's end

[Laser Show]

The Tigers had to make that move. They are leading the central and have an obvious need at starter. The sox have obvious needs all over the place with multiple starters also needed. They are now falling like a rock' date=' going up against the likes of Texas, NY, and Detroit. This week will determine their fate. If the sox somehow take the next 2 in Texas, and take 2 of 3 from NY then it might be worth a shot at some arms on July 31st. If they lost 4 of the next 5, then it might be time to have a firesale in a short window[/quote']

 

If they wait, they market will dry up even more, and it's possible they have to buy higher and/or sell lower. I'd rather them make a move based on what we've seen since September, a mediocre team with a ridiculous payroll.

[User Name]

If they wait' date=' they market will dry up even more, and it's possible they have to buy higher and/or sell lower. I'd rather them make a move based on what we've seen since September, a mediocre team with a ridiculous payroll.[/quote']

 

Not "a" move. Several moves. And they must all be of the selling variety apparently.

 

And the main problem with this team is a combination of culture (strength and conditioning mostly) and coaching.

 

They made wholesale changes during the off-season, only to bring people with apparently the same MO and a loudmouth of a manager.

 

The entire coaching staff, no exceptions, needs to go.

[a700hitter]

I almost posted something like this last night. It is interesting to look into the future in an attempt to see what the Sox might be thinking about.

 

Going into 2013:

 

* The Sox have approximately $39m coming off the books.

* Most of that (63.85%) is from Ortiz and Matsuzaka. The other players are Aaron Cook, Bobby Jenks (already released), Vicente Padilla, Scott Podsednik, Cody Ross and Kelly Shoppach

* They have a big group of significant players who are going into their 2nd or 3rd arb years. Guys like Aceves, Saltalamacchia, Ellsbury, and Aviles should all be getting raises.

* The team will be aiming to get below the LT threshold by 2014.

 

Going into 2014:

* The team will be losing the following players (assuming no contracts): Matt Albers, Jacoby Ellsbury, Rich Hill, Nick Punto, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Ryan Sweeney

* That group is making $15.6m in 2012, probably considerably more as 5 of them will be in Arb3 year.

 

Things really get interesting after 2014:

 

* After the 2014 Season the following player's contracts expire:

 

Aceves, Alfredo

Aviles, Mike

Bailey, Andrew

Beckett, Josh

Lackey, John

Lester, Jon

Miller, Andrew

Morales, Franklin

 

* not even counting arbitration that's at least $54m coming off the books. Beckett and Lackey will account for $32.95m of it, but Lester will also be making 13m in 2014.

* Beckett, Lackey and Lester will all be gone. By then, the Sox will essentially have needed to turn over the top of its rotation.

 

What should the 2013 team look like?

 

Here's a possible roster, based on attempting to reduce total payroll and clearing space for rookies who are ready to produce at the MLB level:

 

C: Saltalamacchia

1B: Gonzalez

2B: Pedroia

3B: Middlebrooks

SS: Aviles

LF: Crawford

CF: Ellsbury

RF: Kalish

DH: Lavarnway

 

Seems pretty logical. Ortiz can see if he can get more money elsewhere, or he can come back for a reasonable amount.

 

The bigger point, is that the Sox probably have more flexibility to trade some of their prospects than many think they do, particularly so they can revamp their starting pitching.

 

Here's that list again, with players who are either stuck here or who won't be replaced. Prospects who sit behind them might be eligible for trade:

 

C: Saltalamacchia

1B: Gonzalez

2B: Pedroia

3B: Middlebrooks

SS: Aviles

LF: Crawford

CF: Ellsbury

RF: Kalish

DH: Lavarnway

 

Offensively, at least, it is safe to say that the Sox have a lot of their positions covered for quite awhile.

 

Let's look at the positions who are likely to have some turnover during the next couple of years, and how the Sox stack up with prospects:

 

Saltalamacchia: He's available after 2013, but the Sox will probably work to resign him if he keeps hitting like he has been. A few years ago the Sox made a concerted effort at stacking up on catching prospects, but none of them (aside from Lavarnway) panned out. Few options here, especially with Lavarnway's potential at the DH spot and his questionable defense.

 

Aviles: If anyone is wondering why the Sox keep going after shortstops, perhaps its because they have an obvious hole coming up here when Aviles becomes a FA after 2014. Iglesias, Bogaerts, Marrero and Lin will all compete for that spot, and I suspect one of them will be able to stick.

 

Ellsbury: Jackie Bradley Jr will be the CF after 2013. Jackie Bradley could potentially be the CF after 2012. Ellsbury might be the best opportunity the Sox have to bring back some good prospects or another legitimate SP. Bradley is the real deal and his defense is major league ready already.

 

 

Aside from the prospects mentioned here, I would think that virtually any offensive prospect could be available in a trade for the right pieces. Brentz, Swihart, Cecchini, Jacobs, Coyle, etc., could all be dealt and represent high-upside prospects that would be attractive to other teams.

 

I've read people saying that the Sox should stand pat and save their prospects. Whereas I usually agree, I think the list above shows that many of these positions are blocked, some of them for quite awhile. Given that, I suspect the Sox can be more aggressive than they might otherwise be to make some fairly significant changes to the team.

 

 

I focused specifically on offense here because the Sox have so much money invested in their SP right now that guys like Beckett, Lester, Buchholz and probably Lackey will all be pitching for the club moving forward. Not a lot to be changed there.

 

A direction the Sox will probably look to go is to bolster the young pitching they have in the system. Zach Stewart might be the start of that kind of movement, but the goal would be to have as many good SP prospects as possible when 2014 comes around. Right now the only reasonable SP options who might be ready by then are Matt Barnes and, possibly Drake Britton.

 

Anyway, I realize this is a fairly directionless post, but I like the thread and am interested to see what others think about the future direction of the club, given their current composition. If you're in the "BLOW IT UP" crowd, this is your place to talk about what that might look like by, say 2013 or 2014.

E1, I haven't read this lengthy post. partly because I am just not in the mood for speculation. I am sure that it is well thought out, and I will read it a little later, but this team has me in a foul mood. I will say this. You have probably done more to put together a plan for the future than our FO has done.

[DocHolliday]

Turner is actually worth more than Barnes' date=' IMO, since he's had success at the higher levels. That is a humongous trade for a guy with shoulder issues, who has sucked over the last 2 months, and who is a FA at year's end[/quote']

 

I would agree with this for the reasons you mentioned and the fact that Turner was a top 10 draft pick. These types of elite potential pitchers are rarely going to fall to big market teams in the draft who will almost always have nothing lower than a 15 pick in the 1st round (see Rays, Tampa for the model of being terrible for a long stretch and accumulating these elite pitching prospects to return to contention). Big market teams would never take this route (willingly of course). The new CBA will make these draft acquisitions even more difficult to come by in the future.

 

This market is completely inefficient from the buying team's point of view and is the main reason its not worth pursuing as a strategy for the Red Sox. With so many holes, 1 move isn't likely to make the difference between finishing out of the playoffs or making the 2nd wild card. The Red Sox would be much better off in the long run (and probably short run too) to become sellers in these conditions.

 

As much of a crapshoot as the playoffs are, a 1 game playoff is even more volatile. All it would take is a bad night from a Buchholz or other Red Sox pitcher or an incredible game from a perineal average player like a Luke Scott and the whole season is over.