6/27 Looking for a win against the Jays on my Anniversary

[mvp 78]

Thought this was actually an improvement for Lester. Take away that homerun and its a damn good outing.

 

Which HR?

[NC Sox Fan]

Andy Petite injurred... muhahahahaaa let the injury god pour his mayhem on the yankees now.. we have had enough...

 

expected to miss 6 weeks

[FredLynn]

Thought this was actually an improvement for Lester. Take away that homerun and its a damn good outing.

 

Which HR? He gave up two. You give up four runs in seven innings and your ERA is over 5. Thats not good enough.

[BornToRun]

Depends upon your definition of "matters."

 

Matters as in a stat that actually depicts how well he's actually pitched, at least better than ERA.

[Brown28]

The 2nd HR. The first one was just a solo, no big deal. 2nd HR is what turns the outing from good to average.

[FredLynn]

Matters as in a stat that actually depicts how well he's actually pitched' date=' at least better than ERA.[/quote']

 

Yeah, you know I just read the FIP leaders on the sports page today. Front page news.

[TutGadol]

But what's his FIP?

 

5.62. I don't see what you're getting at.

[mvp 78]

Matters as in a stat that actually depicts how well he's actually pitched' date=' at least better than ERA.[/quote']

 

Imo, that formula is flawed. Lester has control over a shot over the monster, but no control over a liner that hits three feet from the top? Really?

 

Stats are good, but saying FIP is the one stat that matters is hooey. It's a fine stat, but not the end all be all.

[BornToRun]

Yeah' date=' you know I just read the FIP leaders on the sports page today. Front page news.[/quote']

 

Mock it all you want, Jon's FIP, the stat that actually shows how well he's pitched, stood at 3.60 heading into today. That's right about where his career average is. And guess what, his ERA has been pretty much in line with his FIP over the course of his career. So, do you know what conclusion I draw when I see that Jon has put up his career norm in FIP but has an ERA over a full run north of that number? I can conclude that he's been incredibly unlucky and is due to improve.

[mvp 78]

If Melancon had only not s*** the bed in DET...

[BornToRun]

Imo, that formula is flawed. Lester has control over a shot over the monster, but no control over a liner that hits three feet from the top? Really?

 

Stats are good, but saying FIP is the one stat that matters is hooey. It's a fine stat, but not the end all be all.

 

Better than ERA.

[ellsburyforMVP]

Which HR? He gave up two. You give up four runs in seven innings and your ERA is over 5. Thats not good enough.

 

 

 

Quality start

 

 

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

 

Jump to: navigation, search

 

 

In baseball, a quality start is a statistic for a starting pitcher defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs.

 

 

just looking for the positives here:thumbsup:

[SoxSport]

With Lavarnway hot how about trading Shopach at the deadline? Or will the FO be hesitant to go with two minus defensive catchers.

 

not so loud. you might give the front office a sensible idea.

[mvp 78]

What did luck have to do with Lester's outing today?

 

I don't buy into the good luck/bad luck nonsense. You make your own luck by pitching well.

[ellsburyforMVP]

is it selfish of me to want papi to NOT hit his 400th until the yankee gm i'm gonna be at next week?:dunno:

[mvp 78]

Better than ERA.

 

Barely.

[FredLynn]

Mock it all you want' date=' Jon's FIP, the stat that actually shows how well he's pitched, stood at 3.60 heading into today. That's right about where his career average is. And guess what, his ERA has been pretty much in line with his FIP over the course of his career. So, do you know what conclusion I draw when I see that Jon has put up his career norm in FIP but has an ERA over a full run north of that number? I can conclude that he's been incredibly unlucky and is due to improve.[/quote']

 

Yeah, he's been incredibly unlikely over and over and over and over again.

[BornToRun]

What did luck have to do with Lester's outing today?

 

I don't buy into the good luck/bad luck nonsense. You make your own luck by pitching well.

 

Luck plays a huge role in pitching. Look at dice k from 08 to 09. He had an era south of 3 but his FIP was way over 4. He walked the park but had an incredible strand rate. The next year, those numbers normalized and he sucked. The pitcher has little control of balls in play. Some guys do outperform or underperform what they're peripherals predict them to do but Jon isn't one of them. The two numbers are very close to each other in his career so that tells me that he's been very unlucky this year.

[BornToRun]

Yeah' date=' he's been incredibly unlikely over and over and over and over again.[/quote']

 

It happens. It's incredibly common on both ends of the spectrum.

[FredLynn]

Quality start

 

 

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

 

Jump to: navigation, search

 

 

In baseball, a quality start is a statistic for a starting pitcher defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs.

 

 

just looking for the positives here:thumbsup:

 

Four runs allowed in seven innings is a QS?

[TutGadol]

Barely.

 

When paired with HR/FB, BABIP and LOB% you get a very good picture of how the pitcher would progress. it gives you a good idea of how much luck was involved in his ERA. Also, all those stats above take less of a sample rate then ERA.

[ellsburyforMVP]

Four runs allowed in seven innings is a QS?

 

well if 3 in 6 is, then 4 in 7 has to be about 3/4 of a quality start?

[Brown28]

Four runs allowed in seven innings is a QS?

 

No. Take away the 2nd HR so essentialy one swing of the bat and it's a QS. Point is the Jays didn't slap him around at all.

[mvp 78]

When paired with HR/FB' date=' BABIP and LOB% you get a very good picture of how the pitcher would progress. it gives you a good idea of how much luck was involved in his ERA. all those stats above take less of a sample rate then ERA.[/quote']

 

Agreed. Just saying that you can't look solely at FIP and say a pitcher is getting screwed.

[FredLynn]

Many in the baseball industry have been skeptical of the stock sports writers and baseball management seem to put in the randomness of BABIP. Any casual baseball fan understands that some hard hit balls end up being outs and some bloopers end up as hits, but, to the naked eye, there also seems to exist a direct relationship between how hard a ball is hit and the odds of it becoming a base hit. Baseball players are human beings, not machines, so there stands reason to suggest that players would have some good performance years or outings as well as some bad ones. When a player’s BABIP fluctuates, it does not necessarily mean their luck is migrating to or from the mean, but instead they may be in a legitimate slump or on a legitimate hot streak in which their performance is actually changing. If this is the case, a bad BABIP year should not necessarily be considered randomly unlucky and conversely a good BABIP year should not be considered randomly lucky.

[BornToRun]

Agreed. Just saying that you can't look solely at FIP and say a pitcher is getting screwed.

 

The rest of his numbers say that as well. I just dont feel like posting all of them from an iPhone. Most of his numbers aside from line drive rate are right where they should be or approaching that. He's had s*** luck. I expect things to improve because that's what the numbers are saying.

[mvp 78]

A pitcher has control over a HR, but not a screaming liner off the monster. Got it.

[Brown28]

Mc.....Mc.....Mcdime?

[kapsis21]

how does clayton have a 1.29 ERA.. wait i should have said that after the game finished.. i hope it doesnt come to bite us...

[TutGadol]

Haha, It looked like McDonald stole a HR. Silly me.