What if we went all-out on D? (warning: Dojji is thinking, read at own risk)

[Spudboy]

Seriously, you are going to make an assessment that puts him among "the top defenders" at his position because you've watched some highlight reels?

 

You only make an assessment like that if have extensive experience watching the game. If you know what to look for when the ball makes contact with the bat and you can see his reaction and route to the ball, something the cameraman rarely gets in the shot. And, ultimately, even if you are present and look for these things and like what you see, if you don't have a whole lot of experience watching others do this with the same critical eye, you lack the basis to categorize what you saw.

 

Seriously, right now you are in the same group of people that thinks Jeter deserved those Gold Gloves because he made a few of his jump-throws from the hole.

 

EDIT: And, whether or not I have seen him extensively is irrelevant. I'm not the one trying to get others to accept any assessment of his skills. I'm not a scout. I realize my shortcomings in making such assessments, and, as such, I choose to accept the scouts opinion due to my lack of exposure and experience.

 

END OF DISCUSSION.

[Spudboy]

Why is this discussion still going on?

 

Hahahahahahahahaha!! I just wasted about an hour reading this crap. I have asked myself the same question. Now my eyes and head hurt. Thank God for Percocets!

 

Give up George. You are wrong.

 

Or at the least, insufficiently correct.

[Dojji]

Well I've got the numbers and every scouting report I've ever read on Lin on my side, they all speak of his defense with words like "polished," "elite" and "MLB ready." The minor league defensive numbers I have seen bear up that kind of assessment. So does the times I've gotten to see him in action.

 

There's a reason the kid is being promoted through the system so quickly, and it's obviously not his bat. If there was that much of a concern about Lin's readiness, he would have repeated a level -- it's a delay the team could have afforded, he's been 1-2 years under the average age for his level all the way along. It's his glove that's earning him those promotions and it's his defense that's propelled him up through the system pretty steadily despite the immature stick.

 

But hey, minor league numbers, scouting reports, what I've seen in action, what I've read from others who've seen him in action, the actions of the team in regard to this kid, all of this is insufficient, right? Insufficient to the point that no one is even going to consider the possibility that I might have stumbled onto something by accident and be coincidentally right.

 

Eh, whatever. It's not like I expected anything else around here.

[ORS]

Well I've got the numbers and every scouting report I've ever read on Lin on my side, they all speak of his defense with words like "polished," "elite" and "MLB ready." The minor league defensive numbers I have seen bear up that kind of assessment. So does the times I've gotten to see him in action.

 

There's a reason the kid is being promoted through the system so quickly, and it's obviously not his bat. If there was that much of a concern about Lin's readiness, he would have repeated a level -- it's a delay the team could have afforded, he's been 1-2 years under the average age for his level all the way along. It's his glove that's earning him those promotions and it's his defense that's propelled him up through the system pretty steadily despite the immature stick.

 

But hey, minor league numbers, scouting reports, what I've seen in action, what I've read from others who've seen him in action, the actions of the team in regard to this kid, all of this is insufficient, right? Insufficient to the point that no one is even going to consider the possibility that I might have stumbled onto something by accident and be coincidentally right.

 

Eh, whatever. It's not like I expected anything else around here.

Nobody is doubting his ability to play defense. The sidebar discussion we had was a hypothetical.....IF he did make the starting lineup which position should he play? All signs point to RF, IMO, where his superior arm prevents the weakness of having Ellsbury's weak arm there.

 

Drop the hypothetical, and his big wart, his lack of an ability to hit the ball with any authority, still remains. You are spinning your wheels touting his defense. What you need to do to instill any change of opinion is defend his offensive ability, which is not at all acceptable right now at the major league level.

 

Soxprospects tends to favor the optimistic side of things, and even they project him as a bench outfielder to be used as a defensive replacement/pinch runner. Of course, you tend to make Soxprospects have as negative an outlook on prospects as a700 looks to the rest of us (no offense intended a700).

[Dojji]

All I'll say on the subject of his bat is that he's 22, has been underage at each level he's played, and hasn't filled out yet. He's 6' and 180 pounds, so he isn't your typical slightly undersized Asian speedster and in terms of raw plate discipline, his is fairly good. He does need to square up the ball better and get more line drives, but that's hardly something he can't learn to do. He also had bad luck on balls in play last year. Lin's BABIP is usually in the .300 range. last year it was .271. Normalizing that puts his offensive numbers more or less where they usually are.

 

I dunno if I'd ever expect him to bat .300 at the big league level, but I predicated my post on his ability to hit well enough that you could let his defense do the speaking for him, and that's not unreasonable to expect. I don't think he has to hit that much to be an asset. He could go the way of Lee Tinsley, and ultimately fail to hit even to the very low standards of a defense-first outfielder and speedster, that's a definite possibility, but it's not the only possibility, and there's some reason to expect that Lin can make a bit more progress with the stick -- not least because he is still so young.

 

This is not a Daniel Nava/Tug Hulett situation where the guy has one chance to make it in the bigs and then that's it forever. In my mind Lin has 3 years (4 counting this one), from now to the end of his age 27 season, before he should start to not be taken seriously as a prospective big leaguer. And the combination of speed and defense that he can provide is tempting enough that I expect him to at least get a serious cup of coffee this year.

 

And if he ever does show the ability to hit to a roughly .270 average? That's more or less all he'd need to do with the other assets he has, and at that point he's a starting CF. Maybe not here. Maybe he needs to be traded. But somewhere. If he can show anything in terms of progress, you can bet some NL team would take a chance on him. If he can show that progress quickly, you might get something good for him. Considering just how demanding we are of offense from our players, that might be the best case scenario for Lin -- going out there and flying around for some other market that is less desperate to be THE premiere offensive team in the league.

 

Maybe the Cards would be interested, they seem to know what defense is and how to use it.

[jung]

I actually love to watch good pitching and good defense so there is a selfish side to me that would love to see an outfield that teams just could not hit the ball through and a great defensive SS. It sounds like Iggy has built up so much momentum that he will be here this year....seems to me to be more a matter of when this year and no longer a matter of if for this year.

 

The only fly in the ointment to a team that features defense over offense is a pretty big one I think. Fenway is still a place where regardless of how good your outfield defense is, there are balls you just cannot get to. I guess Spiderman can't hit the curve or else he would be our left fielder.

 

While the Sox play 81 in Fenway and the other 81 elsewhere, a goodly number of the newer parks that have been built feature shorter fences than the parks they replaced. There are few "pitchers" ballparks in this league any longer. Detroit is the exception as the I think the old Tigers Stadium featured shorter fences than the new. Oakland is still a big ballpark.

 

The point is I am not sure that a team that emphasizes defense over offense makes the sense that it might have made at one point. If your team is a really good offensive team that also has solid defenders, then that is OK I think. However that is not the same thing as giving up offense for defense.

 

Iggy's spot may be the one place where it still makes sense. There is so much that a very good defensive SS can do for a team. As long as Iggy does not regress because he needs more time in the minors that he does not get then I can see Iggy coming up.

[Dojji]

I don't think defense and offense is a dichotomy. I do understand what you're saying, and a player like Lin would be a concern if he doesn't provide anything meaningful on offense, especially if Iglesias is also on the roster. What you're counting on is that they stop enough runs of the opposition to make up for that, and that the otherwise extremely strong offensive roster of the team would be sufficient to cover for it.

 

Bear in mind that as things stand right now, one of our starting outfielders is Ryan Sweeney, and another one is a platoon bat that can not hit righthanded pitching. If we had Manny and Drew in their primes my hypothetical would be an afterthought at best. But because we already have mediocricy on the corners as it is, why not stack that mediocricy in favor of something that might add more value to the team?

 

Sweeney's already theoretically here for his defense. If you have a guy out there for the D in the first place, why not go the whole nine yards?

[User Name]

Ryan Sweeney is a better overall player than Lin. If you think otherwise, you're deluding yourself.

[Dojji]

He really isn't. His defense is overrated (not bad mind, just not exactly a major asset) and it's been 2 years since he did anything with the stick that should impress someone.

 

He's a good bet over starting time to give you about 1 WAR. That isn't a starting outfielder. Right now Lin's body of work isn't sufficient to mount a challenge, but if Lin goes on a bit of a run, Sweeney's going to need to have a good year and put up some distance.

 

Maybe in a great doubles park like Fenway he'll get back over .400 SLG and make it a moot point. I honestly hope so.

[ORS]

All I'll say on the subject of his bat is that he's 22, has been underage at each level he's played, and hasn't filled out yet. He's 6' and 180 pounds, so he isn't your typical slightly undersized Asian speedster and in terms of raw plate discipline, his is fairly good. He does need to square up the ball better and get more line drives, but that's hardly something he can't learn to do. He also had bad luck on balls in play last year. Lin's BABIP is usually in the .300 range. last year it was .271. Normalizing that puts his offensive numbers more or less where they usually are.

 

I dunno if I'd ever expect him to bat .300 at the big league level, but I predicated my post on his ability to hit well enough that you could let his defense do the speaking for him, and that's not unreasonable to expect. I don't think he has to hit that much to be an asset. He could go the way of Lee Tinsley, and ultimately fail to hit even to the very low standards of a defense-first outfielder and speedster, that's a definite possibility, but it's not the only possibility, and there's some reason to expect that Lin can make a bit more progress with the stick -- not least because he is still so young.

 

This is not a Daniel Nava/Tug Hulett situation where the guy has one chance to make it in the bigs and then that's it forever. In my mind Lin has 3 years (4 counting this one), from now to the end of his age 27 season, before he should start to not be taken seriously as a prospective big leaguer. And the combination of speed and defense that he can provide is tempting enough that I expect him to at least get a serious cup of coffee this year.

 

And if he ever does show the ability to hit to a roughly .270 average? That's more or less all he'd need to do with the other assets he has, and at that point he's a starting CF. Maybe not here. Maybe he needs to be traded. But somewhere. If he can show anything in terms of progress, you can bet some NL team would take a chance on him. If he can show that progress quickly, you might get something good for him. Considering just how demanding we are of offense from our players, that might be the best case scenario for Lin -- going out there and flying around for some other market that is less desperate to be THE premiere offensive team in the league.

 

Maybe the Cards would be interested, they seem to know what defense is and how to use it.

This entire post suggests he needs time to develop. No argument there.

 

This thread is about starting him this year. Big argument there.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sweeney can get on base and Lin hasnt proven a damn thing above AA. You need to stop busting a nut all over these AAAA players. Lin isnt a premier prospect. As it stands right now, Sweeney is your starting RFer. If it becomes obvious over time that Sweeney moves to the backup role and you want to get a guy who is capable of playing all 3 OF positions, then Lin might be the guy to bring up. But right now, given the need for regular PT out of Sweeney the idea of bringing up a kid who cannot hit his way out of a paper bag is a bad one

[Dojji]

This entire post suggests he needs time to develop. No argument there.

 

This thread is about starting him this year. Big argument there.

 

Fair enough as far as it goes, at least in terms of Boston and its normal way of doing business, but if Ellsbury were a corner outfielder, if we had a hole at center instead of right, or even if we simply weren't immediate contenders, we'd be playing Lin right now.

 

There are no small number of teams that if they had a guy like Lin, and a hole in the outfield, would trot him out there and see what they had. Cherrington needed to play it safe since he sort of inherited a contender and will be judged on that basis, so he brought in Sweeney instead. I understand exactly why he did that. But a lot of teams do take that chance, and it can pay off.

 

Speaking of which, what the **** happened to Kalish? I'd have said to go with him if I'd known where he is in his recovery. He's a strong enough defender in right after all and I thought he had surgery in the middle of last year and he was supposed to be fine for Spring. Did something go wrong?

[ORS]

He's still rehabilitating. He's not expected to engage in full baseball activities until the season starts.

[Dojji]

I just hope he makes it. They've gambled on Kalish more than I like for an unproven prospect. Half the reason I'm trying to convince myself Lin is legit is because I'm legit concerned about Kalish's ability to stay on the ballfield and realize his potential and would really like to know what Plan B is (especially with so few really interesting FA RF's these days).

 

I recognize that dealing Reddick might have been necessary to get Bailey, but I would have thought three times before pulling the trigger on that trade and leaving a hole behind that could be filled by one Gabe Kapler type and a guy who's already had a major surgery.

[ORS]

I just hope he makes it. They've gambled on Kalish more than I like for an unproven prospect. Half the reason I'm trying to convince myself Lin is legit is because I'm legit concerned about Kalish's ability to stay on the ballfield and realize his potential and would really like to know what Plan B is (especially with so few really interesting FA RF's these days).

 

I recognize that dealing Reddick might have been necessary to get Bailey, but I would have thought three times before pulling the trigger on that trade and leaving a hole behind that could be filled by one Gabe Kapler type and a guy who's already had a major surgery.

How in the world can you say that with a straight face?

[Dojji]

It's one thing to give a kid a chance. It's another thing to stripmine all levels of redundancy and demand that a kid take over a major starting position.

 

If Lin had been tried and failed, this team def has other options to go to. If Kalish tries and fails, your best bet is either Lin or a career backup type.

 

Perhaps it's just me trying to manufacture depth, but I do not like how exposed our right field position is right now, not at all.

[Elktonnick]

It's one thing to give a kid a chance. It's another thing to stripmine all levels of redundancy and demand that a kid take over a major starting position.

 

If Lin had been tried and failed, this team def has other options to go to. If Kalish tries and fails, your best bet is either Lin or a career backup type.

 

Perhaps it's just me trying to manufacture depth, but I do not like how exposed our right field position is right now, not at all.

 

Sweeney demonstrated yesterday that he has a strong arm. Ross is a streaky hitter. Between the two we should be okay, not great, but adequate. After what I am seeing in the ST games I've seen I am coming around to the view that I think we are no worse off in right this year than we were last year. Plus a couple of guys are having a strong early spring. I am less concerned about the offense than pitching and injuries. That's where this team is vulnerable.

[a700hitter]

Sweeney demonstrated yesterday that he has a strong arm. Ross is a streaky hitter. Between the two we should be okay' date=' not great, but adequate. After what I am seeing in the ST games I've seen I am coming around to the view that I think we are no worse off in right this year than we were last year. Plus a couple of guys are having a strong early spring. I am less concerned about the offense than pitching and injuries. That's where this team is vulnerable.[/quote']Unfortunately, they will be everyday players until Crawford is back, and neither is an everyday player.

[Dojji]

Sweeney demonstrated yesterday that he has a strong arm. Ross is a streaky hitter. Between the two we should be okay' date=' not great, but adequate. After what I am seeing in the ST games I've seen I am coming around to the view that I think we are no worse off in right this year than we were last year. Plus a couple of guys are having a strong early spring. I am less concerned about the offense than pitching and injuries. That's where this team is vulnerable.[/quote']

 

We are worse off in right field than we were last year.

 

Last year we had Drew starting and Kalish and Reddick in the wings. Right now we have Sweeney starting with Kalish and Lin in the wings. How is that not worse off?

 

Not sure you realize how lucky we got when Reddick stepped up as well as he did. If he hadn't, with Kalish hurt and Drew ineffective we'd have been utterly screwed. If we go as far down this year's depth chart as we did last year, Lin will be our right fielder whether we like it or not.

 

I'd much rather have multiple cracks at getting a quality RF than only one, even if Kalish is (and I've never doubted that he is) a very good prospect if he can stay healthy.

[jacksonianmarch]

Coming out of spring training the sox are immeasurably worse than last yr at this point. When considering the production you ended up getting out of RF, there isnt much room to go but up from a season on the whole POV

[ORS]

Last year we had Drew starting and Kalish and Reddick in the wings. Right now we have Sweeney starting with Kalish and Lin in the wings. How is that not worse off?

Sounds good on paper, but all parties combined to hit for a .233/.299/.352 line last year while playing RF. Sweeney and Ross don't need to light the world on fire to top that.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sounds good on paper' date=' but all parties combined to hit for a .233/.299/.352 line last year while playing RF. Sweeney and Ross don't need to light the world on fire to top that.[/quote']

 

exactly. Nobody predicted Drew to go into the tank that badly, so it was a surprise. The interesting thing this season was that it being a black hole wasnt a surprise and they used stop gap measures to close the hole. My guess is they are very high on Kalish, otherwise, they'd have nabbed a longer term replacement

[Dojji]

You just agreed with two completely contradictory posts right in a row Jacko.

 

Congrats.

[VA Sox Fan]

Sweeney demonstrated yesterday that he has a strong arm. Ross is a streaky hitter. Between the two we should be okay' date=' not great, but adequate. After what I am seeing in the ST games I've seen I am coming around to the view that I think we are no worse off in right this year than we were last year. Plus a couple of guys are having a strong early spring. I am less concerned about the offense than pitching and injuries. That's where this team is vulnerable.[/quote']

 

That was sweet when he threw that runner out at home!

[Elktonnick]

Sounds good on paper' date=' but all parties combined to hit for a .233/.299/.352 line last year while playing RF. Sweeney and Ross don't need to light the world on fire to top that.[/quote']

 

My point exactly, Reddick was defensively challenged. His offensive production declined as AL pitchers adjusted and he didn't. RF isn't by any stretch the most pressing issue this club faces. The three top concerns remain pitching, pitching and pitching. We could have Dewey Evens in his prime in right and wouldn't change this team's outlook for the year one iota.

 

They'll score runs the question is how many innings will they get out of their starters. How will their middle relief perform and how will the new closer and setup guys do, not to mention depth in pitching. Those are the issues not RF.

[Elktonnick]

exactly. Nobody predicted Drew to go into the tank that badly' date=' so it was a surprise. The interesting thing this season was that it being a black hole wasnt a surprise and they used stop gap measures to close the hole. My guess is they are very high on Kalish, otherwise, they'd have nabbed a longer term replacement[/quote']

 

Surprise to you perhaps but anyone who watched regularly could see Drew deteriorate before your eyes.

[ORS]

You just agreed with two completely contradictory posts right in a row Jacko.

 

Congrats.

Read his post again. Although it is worded a bit awkward, he's essentially saying that they look worse on paper going into the season than they did last year, but since the production was so low that they are bound to be better. In other words, he's agreeing with me, not you. No contradiction.

[SoxSport]

Kalish was really the guy who should have played RF last year--he looked good enough for the Sox the year before in RF to get the opportunity. James had him penciled for a 20-20 year with the Sox, but that didn't happen because they had Drew and his $14 mil contract to play out. We know what happened to Kalish in Pawtucket--before Drew's back started aching. Of course Kalish's injury wasn't predictable, but maybe the lesson is you don't want to let these kids sit in the minors any longer than they have to. I hope they don't make the same mistake with Iglesias, though at least he doesn't have $14 mil playing in front of him. They were lucky, by the way, to get a decent year out of Reddick in RF--who was behind Kalish on the charts and who never hit as well in AAA. You just never know with these kids. Look at Lars Anderson right now. Can he play RF?

[seabeachfred]

Well I've got the numbers and every scouting report I've ever read on Lin on my side, they all speak of his defense with words like "polished," "elite" and "MLB ready." The minor league defensive numbers I have seen bear up that kind of assessment. So does the times I've gotten to see him in action.

 

There's a reason the kid is being promoted through the system so quickly, and it's obviously not his bat. If there was that much of a concern about Lin's readiness, he would have repeated a level -- it's a delay the team could have afforded, he's been 1-2 years under the average age for his level all the way along. It's his glove that's earning him those promotions and it's his defense that's propelled him up through the system pretty steadily despite the immature stick.

 

But hey, minor league numbers, scouting reports, what I've seen in action, what I've read from others who've seen him in action, the actions of the team in regard to this kid, all of this is insufficient, right? Insufficient to the point that no one is even going to consider the possibility that I might have stumbled onto something by accident and be coincidentally right.

 

Eh, whatever. It's not like I expected anything else around here.

 

We've listened to you Dojji for a few days now on your crusade about Lin. You put up a good argument and I respect your advocacy as I do anyone who has a strong point of view and fights for it, but you still miss the crux of it all....THE GUY SIMPLY CANNOT HIT!!!!!!!!!

Hee doesn't hit for average, doesn't hit for power, is not a base stealer, his speed is maybe slightly above average, he is not known as a drag bunter who could elevate his BA and OBA with his speed. He is simply a minus as an offensive threat. Take also into consideration that RF is a hitter's position and you have suggested he might also be put there, how does that help our attack if two or three others are having off years as players on our team always seem to be doing?

 

You only have to look at my favorite Red Sox team to see how that can possibly inhibit a team. The 2007 World Series Champions has off seasons from Varitek, Lugo, Crisp, Drew, and for Manny a downturn season. If not for Papi, Lowell, Pedey and Youk, our offense would have been hard pressed to win the division. We hit a lot less homers that year and a lot of our games were lower scoring than usual. Lin would only add a weak bat to the lineup. If we could afford to put him on the roster as a reserve outfielder that would be fine but to do that we would have to cut a better hitting reserve outfielder or cut one of our pitchers. To me it doesn't add up at all.

[ORS]

We've listened to you Dojji for a few days now on your crusade about Lin. You put up a good argument and I respect your advocacy as I do anyone who has a strong point of view and fights for it, but you still miss the crux of it all....THE GUY SIMPLY CANNOT HIT!!!!!!!!!

Hee doesn't hit for average, doesn't hit for power, is not a base stealer, his speed is maybe slightly above average, he is not known as a drag bunter who could elevate his BA and OBA with his speed. He is simply a minus as an offensive threat. Take also into consideration that RF is a hitter's position and you have suggested he might also be put there, how does that help our attack if two or three others are having off years as players on our team always seem to be doing?

 

You only have to look at my favorite Red Sox team to see how that can possibly inhibit a team. The 2007 World Series Champions has off seasons from Varitek, Lugo, Crisp, Drew, and for Manny a downturn season. If not for Papi, Lowell, Pedey and Youk, our offense would have been hard pressed to win the division. We hit a lot less homers that year and a lot of our games were lower scoring than usual. Lin would only add a weak bat to the lineup. If we could afford to put him on the roster as a reserve outfielder that would be fine but to do that we would have to cut a better hitting reserve outfielder or cut one of our pitchers. To me it doesn't add up at all.

His speed is not "maybe above average". It's good, as is his glove, routes to the ball, and batting eye. His problem is that he struggles to make good contact, and that's facing minor league pitching. He'd get murdered by big league pitchers right now. And this is not a case like Reddick where you could suggest he'd improve in the bigs. Reddick was actually hitting the ball hard in AAA, but getting unlucky. The book on Lin is that he can't put the fat part of the bat on the ball.