Red Sox 2012 fearless prediction thread

[2004 ALCS]

I am not arguing that. Again' date=' I am highlighting the terrible late inning performance of this years bullpen, and identifying it as a reason for the poor team record. Could I say it any clearer?[/quote']

 

You've clearly stated that you "wanted" to retain Papelbon. Great, any pink hat could give a similarly thoughtful statement.

 

WOULD YOU have retained Papelbon at 4 years/$50 million or more?

[ellsburyforMVP]

YOTN has been in here awhile....either fell asleep or is getting ready to lay some knowledge down on this subject..........hmmmm wonder whose side he'll be on

 

 

Edit: I actually don't know where he stands on this :dunno:

[Palodios]

Rivera,Hoffman,smith,Franco,Wagner,Eckersly,Reardon etc etc etc all pitched Into their late 30's early 40's.....why can't papelbon? Give me one reason he can't?

 

Stop with this WAR crap...Ben zobrist had an 8.5 WAR last yr ( 2nd only to cliff lee ) while hitting .269 with 20 hrs and 19 SB ......that right there ruins the WAR thing for me

 

You just pointed out the best relievers in baseball history. Papelbon is not in that group. He's elite, and very very good, but he's in the next group under that.

 

Crazy numbers here:

 

Papelbon's ERA -- 3.18

Red Sox's team relief ERA - -3.10

[2004 ALCS]

I can list many more.... Just figured you would get my point?..guess not

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SV_career.shtml

 

There's the list for ya, so I don't have to type them all out

 

Thank you for proving my point for providing me a list of great relievers with Papelbon not on it. I'd give you a C+ on your attempt to try to change the subject though.

[iortiz]

How many Blown Saves do we have this year?

[a700hitter]

You've clearly stated that you "wanted" to retain Papelbon. Great, any pink hat could give a similarly thoughtful statement.

 

WOULD YOU have retained Papelbon at 4 years/$50 million or more?

Buzz off! Visit the old threads and read the arguments from the off season. My opinions were clearly stated there. I am not interested in rehashing the issue.

[2004 ALCS]

Buzz off! Visit the old threads and read the arguments from the off season. My opinions were clearly stated there. I am not interested in rehashing the issue.

 

To state your opinion on the subject would have taken a fraction of the time you've taken to try to carefully avoid the subject.

 

Would you have retained Papelbon for 4 years/$50 million or more or not? To try to deflect the question again would be borderline ridiculous. If you don't want to re-hash an old subject then simply provide a link which clearly states your former opinion the subject.

[ellsburyforMVP]

You just pointed out the best relievers in baseball history. Papelbon is not in that group. He's elite, and very very good, but he's in the next group under that.

 

Crazy numbers here:

 

Papelbon's ERA -- 3.18

Red Sox's team relief ERA - -3.10

 

I was actually just working my way down the list of career sv leaders , of which papelbon is 33rd ( and moving up ) and he's only in his 8th season?

 

If he stays healthy and stays relevant ( nothing to prove that he either can or can't ) and pitches 8 more yrs averaging ( on the low side ) 30 svs a season, that'll put him 3rd on the all-time svs list.....does he then make,the cut,as,the upper echelon closers?

 

Keep in mind that I wasn't comparing him to their "greatness" , just that there has been plenty of relievers that pitched late into their respective careers is all

[ellsburyforMVP]

Thank you for proving my point for providing me a list of great relievers with Papelbon not on it. I'd give you a C+ on your attempt to try to change the subject though.

 

He's 33rd on that list after 7 1/2 seasons??? He's the fastest closer to 200 svs? Huh:dunno:

 

And your the one that said " he's on the wrong side of 30" so I provided this list with over 50 pitchers playing into their late 30's and on?:dunno:

[Palodios]

I was actually just working my way down the list of career sv leaders , of which papelbon is 33rd ( and moving up ) and he's only in his 8th season?

 

If he stays healthy and stays relevant ( nothing to prove that he either can or can't ) and pitches 8 more yrs averaging ( on the low side ) 30 svs a season, that'll put him 3rd on the all-time svs list.....does he then make,the cut,as,the upper echelon closers?

 

Keep in mind that I wasn't comparing him to their "greatness" , just that there has been plenty of relievers that pitched late into their respective careers is all

 

Relievers have a short shelf life. He could blow out his arm, turn ineffective, or have a career ending surgery where he ends up leaking spinal fluid. Or the Phillies could start sucking next year with Hamels/Victorino gone, and Lee/Halladay starting to age, and he'll have significant fewer save ops.

[a700hitter]

You just pointed out the best relievers in baseball history. Papelbon is not in that group. He's elite, and very very good, but he's in the next group under that.

 

Crazy numbers here:

 

Papelbon's ERA -- 3.18

Red Sox's team relief ERA - -3.10

More crazy numbers:

 

Batting Avg against Red Sox pitchers in 7th to 9th innings (.252 -12th in the league)

OBP Sox pitchers in 7th to 9th innings (.318 -- 12th in the league)

OPS Sox pitchers in 7th to 9th innings (.704-- 12th in the league)

 

Papelbon's #'s:

 

BA .227

OBP .277

OPS .645

 

ERA as you know is not a very reliable metric.

[a700hitter]

To state your opinion on the subject would have taken a fraction of the time you've taken to try to carefully avoid the subject.

 

Would you have retained Papelbon for 4 years/$50 million or more or not? To try to deflect the question again would be borderline ridiculous. If you don't want to re-hash an old subject then simply provide a link which clearly states your former opinion the subject.

Visit the old threads. The arguments raged for days and weeks.

[2004 ALCS]

Visit the old threads. The arguments raged for days and weeks.

 

You've not spent 3+ posts avoiding a one word answer. Either you're ridiculously stubborn or you're desperately trying to avoid the subject.

 

WOULD YOU HAVE SIGNED PAPELBON FOR 4 YEARS/$5O MILLION OR NOT?

[ellsburyforMVP]

Relievers have a short shelf life. He could blow out his arm' date=' turn ineffective, or have a career ending surgery where he ends up leaking spinal fluid. Or the Phillies could start sucking next year with Hamels/Victorino gone, and Lee/Halladay starting to age, and he'll have significant fewer save ops.[/quote']

 

Your pointing out all the "ifs" that could happen.....he could just as easily pitch until he's 42 like Rivera ? We will never know how someone's career will pan out ( especially when the person your talking about has NO injury history )

 

Also... http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/nl/sort/saves

 

Check out the top 10 save leaders....it seems to be riddled with closers from some of the worst teams in baseball, so if Philly is horrible pap will still get saves

[SouthieFanatic]

Everything is easier in retrospect. Obviously the way the pen is now you would give him the money in a heartbeat. At the time though I can't say I blame them for not showing him the money

[ellsburyforMVP]

Everything is easier in retrospect. Obviously the way the pen is now you would give him the money in a heartbeat. At the time though I can't say I blame them for not showing him the money

 

Bailey is making $4 million this yr...say what you want about pap making x-amount this yr and x-amount nextmyr etc..,it boils down to 4 yrs for $50 million= $12 1/2 million/yr

 

Seeing how we've gotten 0 from bailey? Yeah, I'd spend the extra $8 million on pap, especially when we supposedly got rid of Scutaro to save $6 million?

 

Edit: but what do I know? I wish we would of kept nomar:thumbsup:

[2004 ALCS]

Everything is easier in retrospect. Obviously the way the pen is now you would give him the money in a heartbeat. At the time though I can't say I blame them for not showing him the money

 

Exactly. I imagine that's why Mr. Eastwood has spent nearly 100 words trying to deflect my simple yes or no question which I've now asked him 3 times about whether he would have given Papelbon 4 years/$50 million at the time.

[SouthieFanatic]

Bailey is making $4 million this yr...say what you want about pap making x-amount this yr and x-amount nextmyr etc..,it boils down to 4 yrs for $50 million= $12 1/2 million/yr

 

Seeing how we've gotten 0 from bailey? Yeah, I'd spend the extra $8 million on pap, especially when we supposedly got rid of Scutaro to save $6 million?

 

Edit: but what do I know? I wish we would of kept nomar:thumbsup:

 

I was very on the fence at the time this all went down. I am by no means a big Bailey guy i'm not trying to say he's better than pap. Maybe we should just sign Tom Flash Gordon and call it a day!

[2004 ALCS]

Edit: but what do I know? I wish we would of kept nomar:thumbsup:

 

Why am I not surprised?

[ellsburyforMVP]

Why am I not surprised?

 

Why? Because I'm not allowed to be loyal to my favorite player ,who was still very Much serviceable?

 

Sorry, but I followed nomar's career from when we drafted him, kinda hard to see a guy like that go... Never mind WANT to see him go?

[redsoxbeatz]

Hey guys, mews flash: PAPS IN ON THE PHILLIES. Now why the f*** are we talking about him? It doesn't matter!

[ellsburyforMVP]

Hey guys' date=' mews flash: PAPS IN ON THE PHILLIES. Now why the f*** are we talking about him? It doesn't matter![/quote']

 

Bored, almost 2 in the morning, don't feel like turning on my Xbox ...to name a few reasons :thumbsup:

[2004 ALCS]

Why? Because I'm not allowed to be loyal to my favorite player ,who was still very Much serviceable?

 

Sorry, but I followed nomar's career from when we drafted him, kinda hard to see a guy like that go... Never mind WANT to see him go?

 

I also followed him from the time we drafted him. However, his poor defense, mixed health and behavioral issues made him a prime trade candidate in my mind, no different than Youkilis who was also my favorite player at one point.

[2004 ALCS]

I'm watching Meet the Press from earlier today and the politicians are more forthcoming with their answers than Mr. Eastwood's rambling 100 word, three post response to my yes or no question. Is that you Mitt?

[example1]

Yeah' date=' it's all pap's fault....not that we got held to 3 runs twice by a 69 win team[/quote']

 

For the record, I never said it was all Papelbon's fault. Just sayin'.

[BornToRun]

For the record' date=' I never said it was all Papelbon's fault. Just sayin'.[/quote']

 

It sure as hell wasn't all his fault but the two saves he blew down the stretch certainly come to mind when we talk about if we should have resigned him. The just had to get Nolan reimold out and he couldn't do it.

 

He's into his 30's

 

He was quite vocal about his wishes to land a huge pay day

 

He choked twice down the stretch

 

This team is trying to get away from the massive free agent contracts and be tighter with the funds

 

I would've liked to see paps come back but the facts are that it just wasn't possible considering the circumstances and what he was asking for.

[a700hitter]

It sure as hell wasn't all his fault but the two saves he blew down the stretch certainly come to mind when we talk about if we should have resigned him. The just had to get Nolan reimold out and he couldn't do it.

 

He's into his 30's

 

He was quite vocal about his wishes to land a huge pay day

 

He choked twice down the stretch

 

This team is trying to get away from the massive free agent contracts and be tighter with the funds

 

I would've liked to see paps come back but the facts are that it just wasn't possible considering the circumstances and what he was asking for.

Three years from today I think it will be quite clear that Lackey's money would have been better spent on Papelbon, but we will not know for 3 more years.

[2004 ALCS]

Three years from today I think it will be quite clear that Lackey's money would have been better spent on Papelbon' date=' but we will not know for 3 more years.[/quote']

 

I thought you weren't discussing Papelbon's contract

[example1]

Three years from today I think it will be quite clear that Lackey's money would have been better spent on Papelbon' date=' but we will not know for 3 more years.[/quote']

 

One week from now I think it will still be quite clear that Papelbon's money WAS better spent on Ortiz.

[2004 ALCS]

One week from now I think it will still be quite clear that Papelbon's money WAS better spent on Ortiz.

 

Exactly.