Red Sox 2012 fearless prediction thread

[ellsburyforMVP]

I suspect you are one of the few people who wasn't worried about Papelbon. What I remember of the guy was someone who let opposing runners sprint around the bases while he had to work himself out of trouble regularly. I remember him being the guy on the mound during multiple losses in September last year. He definitely made me nervous.

 

And papelbon only had 2 blown saves the whole month?...the rest of the month? 4 hits 2bb and 1 run ( still got the save ) so how did he make you nervous the whole month? Oh, and he had 1 blown sv and no losses prior to September.....

 

So, please correct yourself

[2004 ALCS]

Well, your response was misplaced, because i wasn't arguing about retaining papelbon. I did want to retain him, but they didn't. That argument is over and done. I was just noting that his leaving has had a negative effect on the teams record.

 

You have made only a few posts. Don't start off being a punk.

 

You said you wanted the Red Sox to retain him, then stated that you wanted to ignore the financial aspect of the contract. The reality is that retaining Papelbon was entirely contingent on the financial aspect of his contract. Do you disagree?

[a700hitter]

I suspect you are one of the few people who wasn't worried about Papelbon. What I remember of the guy was someone who let opposing runners sprint around the bases while he had to work himself out of trouble regularly. I remember him being the guy on the mound during multiple losses in September last year. He definitely made me nervous.

You lecture me so often about small sample sizes. I remember 6 years of feeling pretty good about having Paps on the mound in the 9th inning. Yes, i was very nervous at times, but I can't think of a single time that I wished the ball was in the hands of another Red Sox pitcher. I never had that "no lead is safe" feeling that I have regularly this season.

 

You remember multiple losses in September? I remember Papelbon blowing 2 games. He was hardly the problem in September as our starters made our relievers pretty irrelevant in September. They had a league worst 7.08 ERA in September-- a full run worse than the next worst team.

[example1]

And papelbon only had 2 blown saves the whole month?...the rest of the month? 4 hits 2bb and 1 run ( still got the save ) so how did he make you nervous the whole month? Oh, and he had 1 blown sv and no losses prior to September.....

 

So, please correct yourself

 

You are right. Papelbon was perfect. His two blown saves against Baltimore in an 8 day period are completely overshadowed by the rest of his performances. It's almost as if he wasn't the one standing on the mound in the biggest game of the season when they lost.

 

Reading your words almost makes it as if he didn't give up two two-out doubles and a game winning single in the last game of the year to finalize the biggest collapse in baseball history.

 

I felt nervous when the guy pitched. Other people I know felt nervous when the guy pitched. You didn't. Yippee.

[example1]

You lecture me so often about small sample sizes. I remember 6 years of feeling pretty good about having Paps on the mound in the 9th inning. Yes, i was very nervous at times, but I can't think of a single time that I wished the ball was in the hands of another Red Sox pitcher. I never had that "no lead is safe" feeling that I have regularly this season.

 

You remember multiple losses in September? I remember Papelbon blowing 2 games. He was hardly the problem in September as our starters made our relievers pretty irrelevant in September. They had a league worst 7.08 ERA in September-- a full run worse than the next worst team.

 

What do you want? blowing two games is multiple losses in September.

[ellsburyforMVP]

You lecture me so often about small sample sizes. I remember 6 years of feeling pretty good about having Paps on the mound in the 9th inning. Yes, i was very nervous at times, but I can't think of a single time that I wished the ball was in the hands of another Red Sox pitcher. I never had that "no lead is safe" feeling that I have regularly this season.

 

You remember multiple losses in September? I remember Papelbon blowing 2 games. He was hardly the problem in September as our starters made our relievers pretty irrelevant in September. They had a league worst 7.08 ERA in September-- a full run worse than the next worst team.

 

People always remember the bad about someone......well how about Sept. 25th when pap came in for a 2 1/3 inning save against the Yankees IN New York IN a crucial game? Someone tell me the last time a closer worked more than 2 innings ( not in extra innings ) to get a save?..... But no, let's remember Sept. 28th and say " to hell with papelbon":dunno:

 

Edit: read the schedule wrong ( doubleheader that day ) pap didn't get the sv as the gm went into extra innings...

[2004 ALCS]

What do you want? blowing two games is multiple losses in September.

 

How dare you point out facts. Don't be a "punk"

[iortiz]

Nervous? Lackey, Wakefield, Miller, etc.

 

Those didn't make me nervous, They made me panic.

 

Last September's name was Starting Pitching. They taxed to the BP and offense.

[2004 ALCS]

People always remember the bad about someone......well how about Sept. 25th when pap came in for a 2 1/3 inning save against the Yankees IN New York IN a crucial game? Someone tell me the last time a closer worked more than 2 innings ( not in extra innings ) to get a save?..... But no' date=' let's remember Sept. 28th and say " to hell with papelbon":dunno:[/quote']

 

Papelbon was a good closer over his tenure in Boston, I don't see anyone arguing otherwise. Would you have given him more than $50 million over 4 years though? That's the question.

[ellsburyforMVP]

You are right. Papelbon was perfect. His two blown saves against Baltimore in an 8 day period are completely overshadowed by the rest of his performances. It's almost as if he wasn't the one standing on the mound in the biggest game of the season when they lost.

 

Reading your words almost makes it as if he didn't give up two two-out doubles and a game winning single in the last game of the year to finalize the biggest collapse in baseball history.

 

I felt nervous when the guy pitched. Other people I know felt nervous when the guy pitched. You didn't. Yippee.

 

 

Yeah, it's all pap's fault....not that we got held to 3 runs twice by a 69 win team

[iortiz]

Papelbon was a good closer over his tenure in Boston' date=' I don't see anyone arguing otherwise. Would you have given him more than $50 million over 4 years though? That's the question.[/quote']

 

Why not? You gave him 12 M last year. Philly will give him the same throughout 4 yrs, regardless by the 2nd, 3rd, 4th years the market will be likely higher.

 

His durability is out of question.

[ellsburyforMVP]

Papelbon was a good closer over his tenure in Boston' date=' I don't see anyone arguing otherwise. Would you have given him more than $50 million over 4 years though? That's the question.[/quote']

 

It's pointless to talk about the money? It's done, over, can't go back in time.... The red sox have as much money as they need for that matter anyways..

 

The topic was, would papelbon have earned us a few more wins over the current BP?

[a700hitter]

You said you wanted the Red Sox to retain him' date=' then stated that you wanted to ignore the financial aspect of the contract. The reality is that retaining Papelbon was entirely contingent on the financial aspect of his contract. Do you disagree?[/quote']The argument of whether they should have retained Papelbon taking into account the value of his contract was argued to death before the season had started. You are missing the point that I said that I had wanted to retain him. That's the past tense. That's why I am not discussing his contract, because I am no longer arguing whether they should have kept him. The only point that I am making here is that the bullpen without Papelbon has resulted in a worse team. At the mid season people are evaluating the team and the reasons for its performance. The starting pitching is an obvious target, but the bullpen in late innings has also been pretty bad.

 

I'm not looking to argue with you. If you want to argue about Papelbon's contract, count me out. I tired of that argument in March.

[2004 ALCS]

Why not? You gave him 12 M last year. Philly will give him the same throughout 4 yrs, regardless by the 2nd, 3rd, 4th years the market will be likely higher.

 

His durability is out of question.

 

Why not?

 

1. He's a reliever on the wrong side of 30.

 

2. Three or more year contracts for relief pitchers have a historically terrible track record.

 

3. $12+ million could get you a lot more than a 1-2 WAR player even if considering traditional inflation rates and ignoring the new stronger luxury tax threshold rules.

 

You still have yet to answer my question. Would you have paid Papelbon more than $50 million over four years in order to retain him?

[iortiz]

Bottom line.

 

Paps would have represented at least 5 more wins this season.

 

Look at the key collateral effect. Aceves to mid reliever spot and Pap saving as usual.

[Palodios]

Why not?

 

1. He's a reliever on the wrong side of 30.

 

2. Three or more year contracts for relief pitchers have a historically terrible track record.

 

3. $12+ million could get you a lot more than a 1-2 WAR player even if considering traditional inflation rates and ignoring the new stronger luxury tax threshold rules.

 

You still have yet to answer my question. Would you have paid Papelbon more than $50 million over four years in order to retain him?

 

2004, you're new around here, so I'll give you some advice. You won't get Iortiz and a700 to budge about Papelbon. I've gone about it every single angle, and there is no ground to be gained.

 

I've run through the numbers, WAR per dollar, decline, the full point difference in ERA difference between his 2009-2011 years versus his 2006-2008 years.... I've even showed them that 95% of the richest relief pitcher contracts for non-Rivera players have turning into complete and utter busts. It always ends up being an agree-to-disagree argument.

[a700hitter]

Bottom line.

 

Paps would have represented at least 5 more wins this season.

 

Look at the key collateral effect. Aceves to mid reliever spot and Pap saving as usual.

I agree. Maybe a healthy Bailey could have made up the difference, but the fact is that the hole at the closer position has gone unfilled.

[2004 ALCS]

The argument of whether they should have retained Papelbon taking into account the value of his contract was argued to death before the season had started. You are missing the point that I said that I had wanted to retain him. That's the past tense. That's why I am not discussing his contract, because I am no longer arguing whether they should have kept him. The only point that I am making here is that the bullpen without Papelbon has resulted in a worse team. At the mid season people are evaluating the team and the reasons for its performance. The starting pitching is an obvious target, but the bullpen in late innings has also been pretty bad.

 

I'm not looking to argue with you. If you want to argue about Papelbon's contract, count me out. I tired of that argument in March.

 

Sorry, but you can't argue that you wanted to retain Papelbon and then try to ignore his contract. In order to retain him, it would have required a contract of at least $50 million over four years.

 

I'll ask you again, would you have paid $50 million for Papelbon over four years? To ignore this question multiple times would suggest to me that you simply want to complain about the Red Sox not signing a player to a bad contract that you also would not have signed him to.

[iortiz]

Why not?

 

1. He's a reliever on the wrong side of 30.

 

2. Three or more year contracts for relief pitchers have a historically terrible track record.

 

3. $12+ million could get you a lot more than a 1-2 WAR player even if considering traditional inflation rates and ignoring the new stronger luxury tax threshold rules.

 

You still have yet to answer my question. Would you have paid Papelbon more than $50 million over four years in order to retain him?

 

Yup, I would have.

 

He is not another "reliever".

 

He shuts down in the ALE. I wanna see your boy Bailey or Melancon doing that through 7 years, constantly and mostly with durability.

 

Good things in life cost, and he is one of the best in that position (to me the best these days)... even in the next, say 5 years. I do not see decline here (SV).

 

But that's me, of course.

[a700hitter]

2004, you're new around here, so I'll give you some advice. You won't get Iortiz and a700 to budge about Papelbon. I've gone about it every single angle, and there is no ground to be gained.

 

I've run through the numbers, WAR per dollar, decline, the full point difference in ERA difference between his 2009-2011 years versus his 2006-2008 years.... I've even showed them that 95% of the richest relief pitcher contracts for non-Rivera players have turning into complete and utter busts. It always ends up being an agree-to-disagree argument.

And we reached that agreement in March.

 

All I am saying here is that our late inning bullpen has been bad to this point in 2012. It has nothing to do with papelbon's value or retaining him. Bailey was supposed to fill the job but he is among the walking wounded.

[2004 ALCS]

I wanna see your boy Bailey or Melancon doing that through 7 years' date=' constantly and mostly with durability.[/quote']

 

please point out a single time that I've mentioned either one of "my boys".

[ellsburyforMVP]

Why not?

 

1. He's a reliever on the wrong side of 30.

 

2. Three or more year contracts for relief pitchers have a historically terrible track record.

 

3. $12+ million could get you a lot more than a 1-2 WAR player even if considering traditional inflation rates and ignoring the new stronger luxury tax threshold rules.

 

You still have yet to answer my question. Would you have paid Papelbon more than $50 million over four years in order to retain him?

 

 

Rivera,Hoffman,smith,Franco,Wagner,Eckersly,Reardon etc etc etc all pitched Into their late 30's early 40's.....why can't papelbon? Give me one reason he can't?

 

Stop with this WAR crap...Ben zobrist had an 8.5 WAR last yr ( 2nd only to cliff lee ) while hitting .269 with 20 hrs and 19 SB ......that right there ruins the WAR thing for me

[2004 ALCS]

Rivera,Hoffman,smith,Franco,Wagner,Eckersly,Reardon etc etc etc all pitched Into their late 30's early 40's.....why can't papelbon? Give me one reason he can't?

 

Stop with this WAR crap...Ben zobrist had an 8.5 WAR last yr ( 2nd only to cliff lee ) while hitting .269 with 20 hrs and 19 SB ......that right there ruins the WAR thing for me

 

You've mentioned 7 relievers in the decade plus history of baseball. I'm talking about overwhelming percentages in TODAY'S baseball. Please read this and get back to me.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/relievers-are-not-worth-multi-year-deals/

[a700hitter]

Sorry' date=' but you can't argue that you wanted to retain Papelbon and then try to ignore his contract. In order to retain him, it would have required a contract of at least $50 million over four years.[/quote']I am not arguing that. Again, I am highlighting the terrible late inning performance of this years bullpen, and identifying it as a reason for the poor team record. Could I say it any clearer?

[ellsburyforMVP]

You've mentioned 7 relievers in the decade plus history of baseball. I'm talking about overwhelming percentages in TODAY'S baseball. Please read this and get back to me.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/relievers-are-not-worth-multi-year-deals/

 

I can list many more.... Just figured you would get my point?..guess not

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SV_career.shtml

 

There's the list for ya, so I don't have to type them all out

[iortiz]

2004, you're new around here, so I'll give you some advice. You won't get Iortiz and a700 to budge about Papelbon. I've gone about it every single angle, and there is no ground to be gained.

 

I've run through the numbers, WAR per dollar, decline, the full point difference in ERA difference between his 2009-2011 years versus his 2006-2008 years.... I've even showed them that 95% of the richest relief pitcher contracts for non-Rivera players have turning into complete and utter busts. It always ends up being an agree-to-disagree argument.

 

Somehow this Pap debate always back .

[a700hitter]

Somehow this Pap debate always back .

The only thing left to the Paps argument is to wait to see how he does for the next 4 years, and how our FO rebuilds our late inning bullpen. I wish Papelbon well. He was a great Red Sox player. Some Sox fans wish him ill. That I don't understand except when we are playing the Phillies.

[ellsburyforMVP]

I can list many more.... Just figured you would get my point?..guess not

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SV_career.shtml

 

There's the list for ya, so I don't have to type them all out

 

And seeing how saves didn't become " official " until 1969, your " decade of baseball" comment holds no water.....and on that list I stopped counting at 50 , that's relievers that pitched 14 yrs or more

[iortiz]

please point out a single time that I've mentioned either one of "my boys".

 

Well, I thought you were pleased with them.

 

Hell, we lost an elite arm. Maybe the only true ace in our pitching staff.

[iortiz]

The only thing left to the Paps argument is to wait to see how he does for the next 4 years' date=' and how our FO rebuilds our late inning bullpen. I wish Papelbon well. He was a great Red Sox player. Some Sox fans wish him ill. That I don't understand except when we are playing the Phillies.[/quote']

 

I've watched some Pap's games and he's been pretty solid. Sure, he shitted a couple of games, but he'll be fine. He is a true competitor.