Red Sox 2012 fearless prediction thread

[FredLynn]

88 wins. Before Bailey went down, I thought 90 was reachable. Its fine. This is what happens in a rebuilding year.

[Dojji]

....

 

96 wins.

 

I think people are overreacting to September. There's no reason to expect our luck to be that bad again.

 

I was encouraged by two big things in this last game, despite the loss. One was Lester, who battled his heart out. The other was the defense. Aviles in particular was not as bad as I was afraid he'd be and is easily an upgrade over Scutaro defensively.

 

It'll come down to Salty improving. If he can reach his potential, we could have a special season. Especially if Bard does make good as a starter. An improvement by him, combined with Crawford returning to his career levels and Kalish or a Ross/Sweeney platoon holding down right field, instead of the worst production out of the right field position in MLB history, and a bottom of the rotation that isn't as historically awful as last year, should allow us to pick up several games.

[jung]

I can go with Lester as showing us what he is capable of using his first start as a precursor for the kind of season he can have.

 

Aviles is a stretch. There are reasons why guys become "utility" players. I can't remember any "utility" players suddenly emerging as plus defenders playing positions that are plus defensive positions. Aviles will be exposed over the course of games. The question will be bringing enough bat to the plate to make up for it. I am skeptical on that one.

[SoxFanForsyth]

IT'S THE CURSE OF BOBBY V!!!!

 

He goes onto ESPN New York's show with Michael Kay yesterday, then today, we get beat because Former Yankee Mark Melancon allowed two hits, then Former Yankee Alfredo Aceves came in and gave up the game winning hit to, guess who? Former Yankee Austin Jackson!

[jung]

Alright...now we can have some fun. I don't believe in any of this Saber-s*** but curses....now we're talkin'.

[Dojji]

I can go with Lester as showing us what he is capable of using his first start as a precursor for the kind of season he can have.

 

Aviles is a stretch. There are reasons why guys become "utility" players. I can't remember any "utility" players suddenly emerging as plus defenders playing positions that are plus defensive positions. Aviles will be exposed over the course of games. The question will be bringing enough bat to the plate to make up for it. I am skeptical on that one.

 

It's not about being a plus defender. We haven't had a plus defender at shortstop since... on God I don't remember. Scutaro sure as heck wasn't one. Lowrie wasn't one. Nomar wasn't one. Renteria was a joke. I barely remember Valentin, but he was more of an offensive guy too IIRC. Cabrera and Gonzo were pretty good, but "plus" stretches it -- Cabrera was barely here for any time, and Gonzo is a journeyman with good hands who only looked as good to us as he did because of the guy he replaced, and the guy who replaced him, both SUCKING.

 

I'll take actual adequacy from the shortstop position. It's a big step up from anything we've had in a very, very long time.

 

I'll tell you this though -- if Iglesias ever makes the big leagues as our starting shortstop, we are going to be able to tell the difference -- just like we could when we got to watch Coco that one year when he really lived up to his ability.

[jung]

Biggest long term and ever existent flaw in the Sox approach to baseball team building has been its inability to come to terms with the value of having a plus defender in a plus defensive position in lieu of offensive prowess. You conveniently forget Gonzo who we ran out of town here after one year because he did not fit the usual mold for a Red Sox SS.

 

The Sox in my view were in part let off the hook through the steroid era which made it even more popular to ignore defensive prowess for offensive numbers even in plus defensive positions like SS, the consummate plus defensive position. Now that the steroid era is behind us, the sooner teams adapt to the power numbers we will have and not the power numbers that we had, the better off they will be. In the case of the Sox if they ever do come to this conclusion it will actually be a first as opposed to a return!

[User Name]

At the end of the season, the Red Sox BP will rank no lower than sixth in ERA and WHIP.

[Dojji]

Biggest long term and ever existent flaw in the Sox approach to baseball team building has been its inability to come to terms with the value of having a plus defender in a plus defensive position in lieu of offensive prowess. You conveniently forget Gonzo who we ran out of town here after one year because he did not fit the usual mold for a Red Sox SS.

 

The Sox in my view were in part let off the hook through the steroid era which made it even more popular to ignore defensive prowess for offensive numbers even in plus defensive positions like SS, the consummate plus defensive position. Now that the steroid era is behind us, the sooner teams adapt to the power numbers we will have and not the power numbers that we had, the better off they will be. In the case of the Sox if they ever do come to this conclusion it will actually be a first as opposed to a return!

 

I think it's more fundamental than that.

 

I think they downplay having a plus defender because plus defense is harder to measure.

 

Coco Crisp had that epic year with the glove in 07 and has the reputation of a great defender, right? Well that was the only year when he was even that much above average. Defense can be very unpredictable.

[ORS]

At the end of the season' date=' the Red Sox BP will rank no lower than sixth in ERA and WHIP.[/quote']

Overall, I think this is very possible, particularly with the additions that will be made throughout the season.....Hill, Bailey, and Bard when they start limiting his innings for the year.

 

That said, if Melancon and Aceves spit the bit as the endgame guys early on, I think they need to make a move. Which I fear won't happen. I think they are going to be very conservative and judicious with resources this year, and they might let a few early leaks sink the ship. Maybe I'm wrong and they have a more aggressive approach, but if they don't, I think it's a mistake. I think the 2nd half roster is worth keeping the ship afloat for.

 

We'll see.

[jung]

I think they downplay having a plus defender because plus defense is harder to measure.

 

It is harder to measure but the Sox ignore undeniable plus defense in plus defensive positions. It is not like guys that are plus defensive SS don't exist. Good luck seeing one in a Sox uniform for any amount of time at least based on history unless he can hit.

 

I don't think Crisp is a good example for the exact reason you mentioned. Crisp was just barely above average in my view and more of a flashy defender (something easier to see) than a plus defender. In addition, the offensive/defense compromise is a little easier to justify in CF than it is at SS.

 

Granted Center is another plus defensive position but SS is the consummate defensive position and one of the few positions on the field where excellent defense is not as hard to identify and should trump offense. Should have trumped it during the steroid era and should trump it now.

 

Lack of range or outstanding range is not that hard to identify at SS. Good hands vs not so good hands is also not so hard to identify. Just watching the Sox SS go through their fielding drills as a group it was easy to identify differences between Punto, Aviles and Iggy.

[User Name]

Overall, I think this is very possible, particularly with the additions that will be made throughout the season.....Hill, Bailey, and Bard when they start limiting his innings for the year.

 

That said, if Melancon and Aceves spit the bit as the endgame guys early on, I think they need to make a move. Which I fear won't happen. I think they are going to be very conservative and judicious with resources this year, and they might let a few early leaks sink the ship. Maybe I'm wrong and they have a more aggressive approach, but if they don't, I think it's a mistake. I think the 2nd half roster is worth keeping the ship afloat for.

 

We'll see.

 

Really? I thought the bullpen was officially s*** after today. You know, game 1 of 162.

[SoxSport]

Yahoo sports tonite reads "Same old Sox". "Just like last September." These guys are worse than the Globe.

 

The Sox looked just fine today. Heck, Valverde stunk up the place--not the Sox.

 

So what's up with Yahoo sports? They are another one of those NY based media outlets. That explains it.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's not about being a plus defender. We haven't had a plus defender at shortstop since... on God I don't remember. Scutaro sure as heck wasn't one. Lowrie wasn't one. Nomar wasn't one. Renteria was a joke. I barely remember Valentin, but he was more of an offensive guy too IIRC. Cabrera and Gonzo were pretty good, but "plus" stretches it -- Cabrera was barely here for any time, and Gonzo is a journeyman with good hands who only looked as good to us as he did because of the guy he replaced, and the guy who replaced him, both SUCKING.

 

I'll take actual adequacy from the shortstop position. It's a big step up from anything we've had in a very, very long time.

 

I'll tell you this though -- if Iglesias ever makes the big leagues as our starting shortstop, we are going to be able to tell the difference -- just like we could when we got to watch Coco that one year when he really lived up to his ability.

 

Alex Gonzalez was easily a plus defender. You're having selective memory

[jacksonianmarch]

Overall, I think this is very possible, particularly with the additions that will be made throughout the season.....Hill, Bailey, and Bard when they start limiting his innings for the year.

 

That said, if Melancon and Aceves spit the bit as the endgame guys early on, I think they need to make a move. Which I fear won't happen. I think they are going to be very conservative and judicious with resources this year, and they might let a few early leaks sink the ship. Maybe I'm wrong and they have a more aggressive approach, but if they don't, I think it's a mistake. I think the 2nd half roster is worth keeping the ship afloat for.

 

We'll see.

 

Without Bailey or Bard, the pen as currently constructed is no better than average and probably below average. Bailey won't be back until August 1 in all likelihood, so while he will help out for the final 1/3 of the season, he won't put in enough innings to skew the ERA that much. Also, if Bard is in the rotation until he hits his innings cap, then he wont be in the pen until August as well. Hill isnt expected to be back for another 2 months as well. You are definitely right about the idea that the second half will be worth keeping the first half afloat for. The reinforcements coming in August will change the pen from pedestrian to stellar. The question is, will they make a move in the interim to shore up the weaknesses. I think they will have to, especially if Melancon continues to show up small in big spots. That was the reason he was moved in the Bronx and he didnt do anything to dispel that notion tonight. It will be interesting to see how things play out. I think this yrs sox team is going to be the most interesting experiment in the bigs. I won't be able to turn away

[Dojji]

Alex Gonzalez was easily a plus defender. You're having selective memory

 

He had great hands and a strong and highly accurate arm, but his range wasn't special.

 

He's better than anything we've had in a long time, but "elite" stretches it.

[jacksonianmarch]

His UZR/150 with the Red Sox in 2006 was 14.6. That's awesome

[a700hitter]

He had great hands and a strong and highly accurate arm, but his range wasn't special.

 

He's better than anything we've had in a long time, but "elite" stretches it.

He was an exceptional fielder whaen he was with the Sox. He made plays that Shortstops on the Sox haven't made in recent memory or before his arrival for that matter.

[Dojji]

I'm splitting hairs here really. I did like Gonzo, and he is the best defense guy we've had for a long time in either direction. I think Iglesias wouldn't have that much trouble rising to his level defensively.

[jacksonianmarch]

He'd have a s*** ton of trouble replicating what AGon did offensively, though

[Dojji]

I think Iglesias' career track will resemble Omar Vizquel's or Ozzie Smith's, at least offensively. He'll be an offensively sucky all-glove guy for the first few years, and then over time and with plenty of at bats he'll gradually fight his way to adequacy with the stick. We'll have a couple years of suck to fight through before that happens though.

[jacksonianmarch]

Iglesias strikes out nearly 20% of the time. Ozzie never struck out more than 49 times in a season and he was at 6.2% for his career.

[Dojji]

1 K in 5 AB's really isn't that terrible. It's not as good as those two, but let's not get recharted here.

[SCM33]

I think Iglesias' career track will resemble Omar Vizquel's or Ozzie Smith's' date=' at least offensively. He'll be an offensively sucky all-glove guy for the first few years, and then over time and with plenty of at bats he'll gradually fight his way to adequacy with the stick. We'll have a couple years of suck to fight through before that happens though.[/quote']

 

Not even close. Those guys are hall of famers.

 

He is Rey Ordonez. If hes lucky, hell most likely resemble Rey Sanchez offensively.

 

Youre crazy when you evaluate Redsox prospects man, out of your mind crazy.

[jacksonianmarch]

1 K in 5 AB's really isn't that terrible. It's not as good as those two' date=' but let's not get recharted here.[/quote']

 

Are you f***ing serious? 1 out of 5 is BAD. Especially for a guy with no power to speak of. It's tolerable when that guy can smack 20+ balls into the seats or can walk at a high rate to justify K'ing so much. But for a free swinger with no power to K that much shows a significant deficiency in the hit category. He's Mendoza, as in the Mendoza line.

[Dojji]

Rey Ordonez is just a bit too pessimistic. He's not a great offensive prospect, but he's a little better than THAT.

[a700hitter]

Rey Ordonez is just a bit too pessimistic. He's not a great offensive prospect' date=' but he's a little better than THAT.[/quote']He hasn't proved that yet.

[Dojji]

Are you f***ing serious? 1 out of 5 is BAD. Especially for a guy with no power to speak of. It's tolerable when that guy can smack 20+ balls into the seats or can walk at a high rate to justify K'ing so much. But for a free swinger with no power to K that much shows a significant deficiency in the hit category. He's Mendoza' date=' as in the Mendoza line.[/quote']

 

Why? Because he couldn't get it done at AAA at age 21?

[Dojji]

He hasn't proved that yet.

 

He will.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ordonez only struck out 10.8% of the time in his big league career. Iglesias is nearly double that. And Ordonez hit .246 for his career, something I think Iglesias might struggle to do. Until Iglesias shows he can either take some pitches and walk or make better contact, he's not going to last long in Boston