Who will win Darvish?

[Soxfan1]

Interesting thought if Toronto gets Yu Darvish: John Farrell had a lot of frustration with Dice-K.

[Soxfan1]

 

Interesting sample. Looks like he has some really nasty stuff at age 23, but can be hit.

[Station 13]

I'd say Cubbies. Theo first big move.

[Divinity]

The winning bid for Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish will top the $51.1 million the Red Sox paid for the right to speak to Daisuke Matsuzaka, SI.com reported Saturday.

 

The amount is not known, nor the winning bidder.

 

Darvish's team, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters do not have to announce the winning bid until Tuesday at 5 p.m. EST.

 

Teams reported to have bid are the Yankees, Blue Jays, Cubs and Rangers, although SI.com says six teams have placed bids on the 25-year-old right-hander.

 

Reports have pegged the Blue Jays as the top bidder, but there has been no confirmation of bids or bidders for that matter.

[example1]

Yankees. Why would they bid if they didn't intend on winning?

[User Name]

Matsuzaka says hi.

[jacksonianmarch]

I doubt it's NY. I think they bid what they thought was reasonable. Regardless, I think we wait till the FA class of 2013 or make a deal

[Station 13]

Rangers is the highest bidder.

[example1]

I'm glad I was wrong.

[Divinity]

I'm glad I was wrong.

 

I wouldn't get too excited, this may mean the Rangers reach the WS again next year(s)

[Palodios]

I have a hard time seeing them making a deal here. Why pay more on Darvish than Cj Wilson and Cliff Lee were both worth? That would just plain moronic.

[Bellhorn04]

You have to figure if the Rangers were willing to post a 50 million + fee, they've got another 80 million or so behind it for his contract. Crazy money, for sure.

[User Name]

I have a hard time seeing them making a deal here. Why pay more on Darvish than Cj Wilson and Cliff Lee were both worth? That would just plain moronic.

 

First off, that's not how it would work.

 

He will not be worth (posting + contract) as much as Cliff Lee, but he will be worth more than CJ Wilson, and with good reason.

 

Even if he turns out to be a bust, he would seem to have several advantages over Wilson, including age, durability (has never had arm trouble), and due to those things, projectability.

 

Remember that only the actual contract without the posting fee counts against the luxury tax. If Darvish works out, and everyone seems to think he will, then they get an ace-caliber pitcher with minimal impact to the luxury tax.

 

Obviously, it could fail, but it actually seems like a wiser investment than a 33-year-old Wilson with a history of elbow problems who has only spent two years as a starter.

[a700hitter]

I have a hard time seeing them making a deal here. Why pay more on Darvish than Cj Wilson and Cliff Lee were both worth? That would just plain moronic.

It makes no sense to me either.

[Palodios]

First off, that's not how it would work.

 

He will not be worth (posting + contract) as much as Cliff Lee, but he will be worth more than CJ Wilson, and with good reason.

 

Even if he turns out to be a bust, he would seem to have several advantages over Wilson, including age, durability (has never had arm trouble), and due to those things, projectability.

 

Remember that only the actual contract without the posting fee counts against the luxury tax. If Darvish works out, and everyone seems to think he will, then they get an ace-caliber pitcher with minimal impact to the luxury tax.

 

Obviously, it could fail, but it actually seems like a wiser investment than a 33-year-old Wilson with a history of elbow problems who has only spent two years as a starter.

 

The Rangers are currently spending about 60% of the luxury tax. I doubt they're particularly concerned with that. $120 million is a lot of money for a proven major league ace, nevermind a guy who has never pitched past AAAA.

 

Think for a second... which major league pitchers have actually gotten contracts that big? Sabathia, Santana, Lee, Zito. That's it.

[redsoxrules]

I have a hard time seeing them making a deal here. Why pay more on Darvish than Cj Wilson and Cliff Lee were both worth? That would just plain moronic.

 

If I recall , the Rangers did offer Cliff Lee a lot of money, he just chose to sign in Philly.

I'm not sold on CJ wilson

[User Name]

The Rangers are currently spending about 60% of the luxury tax. I doubt they're particularly concerned with that. $120 million is a lot of money for a proven major league ace, nevermind a guy who has never pitched past AAAA.

 

Think for a second... which major league pitchers have actually gotten contracts that big? Sabathia, Santana, Lee, Zito. That's it.

 

Come back with the cap argument next year, after they lock up Napoli and Kinsler, have to deal with a Hamilton extension, and arbitration raises. That 5-7.5 cap relief will look golden.

 

Also, there's this: According to scouts (and they could be wrong) Darvish was the best available pitcher this year, as in, better than Wilson. What if the scouts are right and Darvish is the real deal? The Rangers certainly think he is, and they're a model organization. So we, as fans, shouldn't rush to judgement on the investment until we see what happens. Next thing you know, he's an excellent pitcher, and the doubters look like fools.

 

That said, i'm glad the Sox passed on him. There's no middle ground here: Ace or bust.

[Palodios]

Come back with the cap argument next year, after they lock up Napoli and Kinsler, have to deal with a Hamilton extension, and arbitration raises. That 5-7.5 cap relief will look golden.

 

Also, there's this: According to scouts (and they could be wrong) Darvish was the best available pitcher this year, as in, better than Wilson. What if the scouts are right and Darvish is the real deal? The Rangers certainly think he is, and they're a model organization. So we, as fans, shouldn't rush to judgement on the investment until we see what happens. Next thing you know, he's an excellent pitcher, and the doubters look like fools.

 

That said, i'm glad the Sox passed on him. There's no middle ground here: Ace or bust.

 

I lived through the Dice-k fiasco, I think that is argument enough that this was a huge risk, even if Darvish is significantly more talented.

[User Name]

I lived through the Dice-k fiasco' date=' I think that is argument enough that this was a huge risk, even if Darvish is significantly more talented.[/quote']

 

Oh i know what you mean. However, think about it this way: Dice-K's failures in the US were more a combination of his own idiocy and the team's coaching futility than his stuff or talent.

 

By all accounts, Darvish is not only more talented, but more coachable and durable.

 

That's what the Rangers are banking on, and if they're right, they've hit the jackpot.

[Palodios]

Oh i know what you mean. However, think about it this way: Dice-K's failures in the US were more a combination of his own idiocy and the team's coaching futility than his stuff or talent.

 

By all accounts, Darvish is not only more talented, but more coachable and durable.

 

That's what the Rangers are banking on, and if they're right, they've hit the jackpot.

 

The rumor I heard was 5/70, so we're talking about a 5 year 120 million dollar contract, meaning he'll make 24 million a year. At that price, even if he pitches like Roy Halladay, there isn't much wiggle room for him to be worth MORE than his contract. His first year is probably going to be okay--not great-- because he'll be adjusting to the significantly better hitters, the wear and tear, traveling, and 100 degree summer days, not to mention pitching an extra game every month. Atleast Dice-k's contract had the 6th year.

[User Name]

The rumor I heard was 5/70' date=' so we're talking about a 5 year 120 million dollar contract, meaning he'll make 24 million a year. At that price, even if he pitches like Roy Halladay, there isn't much wiggle room for him to be worth MORE than his contract. His first year is probably going to be okay--not great-- because he'll be adjusting to the significantly better hitters, the wear and tear, traveling, and 100 degree summer days. Atleast Dice-k's contract had the 6th year.[/quote']

 

It's just a rumor though. Let's wait until the contract is finalized before we pass judgement.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's going to be stuck in the same situation as DiceK. He's not going to be welcomed back when the Fighters can get $51.7 million for letting him walk. And his dream is to go to the MLB. So effectively, he either takes a reduced deal or he returns to Japan in shame. Shame will drive this, and I think a 6yr $60 mil deal would be done. It's more than DiceK, but not by much.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The rumor I heard was 5/70' date=' so we're talking about a 5 year 120 million dollar contract, meaning he'll make 24 million a year. At that price, even if he pitches like Roy Halladay, there isn't much wiggle room for him to be worth MORE than his contract. His first year is probably going to be okay--not great-- because he'll be adjusting to the significantly better hitters, the wear and tear, traveling, and 100 degree summer days, not to mention pitching an extra game every month. Atleast Dice-k's contract had the 6th year.[/quote']

 

Well, the Rangers will pay $24mm/year. But he'll only make $14mm/year.

[User Name]

My bet is he won't get more than 12 M per year.

[redsoxbeatz]

Apparently this guy has a 7 pitch repertoire, that's incredible. I wonder how good they all are.

 

This guy, well the Rangers really, f***ed the AL East -- now the #2 team [probably] is not guaranteed a wild card playoff berth like they've been used too for quite a while now.

 

I sure hope Bard turns out as a tremendous SP for our sake.

[Palodios]

Apparently this guy has a 7 pitch repertoire, that's incredible. I wonder how good they all are.

 

This guy, well the Rangers really, f***ed the AL East -- now the #2 team [probably] is not guaranteed a wild card playoff berth like they've been used too for quite a while now.

 

I sure hope Bard turns out as a tremendous SP for our sake.

 

There will be a second wildcard next year.

[example1]

Yeah, for a one game playoff.

 

The AL will be a beast of a league next year and moving forward. It will be fun to watch how Darvish matches up against ML hitters. Nolan Ryan puts a premium on velocity and durability, so there must be something of his valuation in the signing.

[Palodios]

Yeah' date=' for a one game playoff.[/quote']

 

Sure, but how does having two powerhouse West teams affect the Red Sox's shot at the playoffs? I'd rather give Lester the ball against Weaver or Darvish than face either of those team's top three.

[redsoxbeatz]

There will be a second wildcard next year.

 

That's right! I forgot about that s***. Damn.

 

Nvm then. Red Sox Nation is guaranteed again

[Divinity]

Do you think Darvish will win under/over 15 games?