2012 Potential Starting Lineup

[johndango]

You mean like Greinke' date=' Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Jake Peavy, and Johan Santana? :dunno:[/quote']

 

I'll give you Greinke but Lee and Sabathia were in the final year of contracts. Can't remember Peavy's situation, and Santana was in the final two years. Felix still has 3. You could maybe talk about trading for him a year from now depending on how their season goes. But this year, IF you could convince them to trade him, it would require an amount of prospects that truthfully wouldn't be worth it.

[Palodios]

How often do you see a Cy Young award winner on a below value contract who has spent ~no time on the DL get traded?

 

Below value contract? He costs 20 million next year. It may be below value, but that's still a s*** ton of money to a small to mid market team.

 

Halladay, Greinke, Sabathia, and Cliff Lee have all been traded in the last three years.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'll give you Greinke but Lee and Sabathia were in the final year of contracts. Can't remember Peavy's situation' date=' and Santana was in the final two years. Felix still has 3. You could maybe talk about trading for him a year from now depending on how their season goes. But this year, IF you could convince them to trade him, it would require an amount of prospects that truthfully wouldn't be worth it.[/quote']

 

Well if you're going to nitpick, Felix is no longer cost-controlled. He's making $20mm a year for the next 3 years. That's hardly cost controlled. If that's cost controlled, then Lackey is a f***ing bargain.

[Jasonbay44]

Well if you're going to nitpick' date=' Felix is no longer cost-controlled. He's making $20mm a year for the next 3 years. That's hardly cost controlled. If that's cost controlled, then Lackey is a f***ing bargain.[/quote']

 

Anything that involves paying Lackey cannot be considered a bargain.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Anything that involves paying Lackey cannot be considered a bargain.

 

Exactly.

 

Which reinforces my comment that $20mm a year is, by no means, cost controlled.

[Dojji]

Felix's contract over the next 3 years = 3 years/$60mm. That's a big bump in value' date=' and the sooner they trade him, the more value they will get in prospects. [/quote']

 

I guess you have a point there. That worked out when people used the same argument in favor of a Hanley trade after all.

 

Oh wait, it didn't.

[Emmz]

ROFL@ Youk not being full time.

 

The dude had a off year, hit .260, and still had a .830 OPS.

[johndango]

Look, honestly, If it were me, I'd trade him. I've watched good-great pitching in Seattle for the past decade, but I can't hardly remember the last time I was excited that someone was up to bat. I would love to have about just about anybody in the Red Sox' lineup. Seattle is a bandwagon city though. The fans, who are already avoiding Safeco like the plague, are not going to be okay with losing Felix. I think that's the last time I will say it. I just thought I'd let you know... it isn't happening. He's the Seattle Linecum. Again, if you want a good- realistic- pitcher from Seattle, rosterbate about Pineada. He had a 9.1 SO/9 this year. Second to Morrow. He'd be good in Boston and a name small enough still in Seattle that they could justify trading him for the right deal. baseball-reference.com/players/p/pinedmi01.shtml

[SoxFanForsyth]

I guess you have a point there. That worked out when people used the same argument in favor of a Hanley trade after all.

 

Oh wait, it didn't.

 

It didn't work because the Marlins didn't trade him, so all of a sudden it's a moot point? That makes sense.

 

Oh wait, no it doesn't.

[Dojji]

Sure it does. Do you really think the dynamics are any different here? If anything, the differences would make a Hanley trade more likely, considering the number of interesting young players the Mariners have grouped around Felix recently.

[Palodios]

Look' date=' honestly, If it were me, I'd trade him. I've watched good-great pitching in Seattle for the past decade, but I can't hardly remember the last time I was excited that someone was up to bat. I would love to have about just about anybody in the Red Sox' lineup. Seattle is a bandwagon city though. The fans, who are already avoiding Safeco like the plague, are not going to be okay with losing Felix. I think that's the last time I will say it. I just thought I'd let you know... it isn't happening. He's the Seattle Linecum. Again, if you want a good- realistic- pitcher from Seattle, rosterbate about Pineada. He had a 9.1 SO/9 this year. Second to Morrow. He'd be good in Boston and a name small enough still in Seattle that they could justify trading him for the right deal. baseball-reference.com/players/p/pinedmi01.shtml[/quote']

 

He's not proven, and he'll still cost a s***-ton. He's definitely not worth losing Ellsbury, but the Red Sox can't afford him otherwise.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Sure it does. Do you really think the dynamics are any different here? If anything' date=' the differences would make a Hanley trade more likely, considering the number of interesting young players the Mariners have grouped around Felix recently.[/quote']

 

Yes. I do think the dynamics are different.

 

1. The Marlins are moving into an entirely new stadium next year, and the last thing they're going to do this offseason is put their attendance into jeopardy by dishing their franchise player.

 

2. Hanley's contract only bumps up 4mm next season. Felix's bumps up twice that.

 

3. Hanley is coming off of a season where he's hit .243 with a .712 OPS and played only 92 games. Felix is coming off a season where he threw 240 IP, and had an FIP consistent with his career.

 

So yes. The dynamics are extremely different. The Marlins would be trying to trade an injured player who put up career-low numbers who is the face of their franchise when they're opening a new stadium and who's salary is jumping only $4mm this year.

 

The Mariners would be trying to get as much value as they could out of a guy who throws 240 IP each year, put up numbers consistent with his career numbers, and made $10mm in 2011, but will make $60mm from 2012-2014.

 

It's not even close. Literally, the only thing that is the same between the two is that they're both Hispanic and have 3 years left on their contracts.

[Dojji]

Yes. I do think the dynamics are different.

 

1. The Marlins are moving into an entirely new stadium next year, and the last thing they're going to do this offseason is put their attendance into jeopardy by dishing their franchise player.

 

2. Hanley's contract only bumps up 4mm next season. Felix's bumps up twice that.

 

These factors are more than countered by the fact that the Mariners are already well settled into a much better ballpark than Sun Life, and have been prepared all along to spend money on talent. Their problem had been identifying what to spend it on.

 

3. Hanley is coming off of a season where he's hit .243 with a .712 OPS and played only 92 games. Felix is coming off a season where he threw 240 IP, and had an FIP consistent with his career.

 

Again, this is more a factor for why the Marlins would be more willing to trade Hanley than the Mariners would to trade Felix, or insist on more talent in any return. It really doesn't help you that much.

 

So yes. The dynamics are extremely different. The Marlins would be trying to trade an injured player who put up career-low numbers who is the face of their franchise when they're opening a new stadium and who's salary is jumping only $4mm this year.

 

The Mariners would be trying to get as much value as they could out of a guy who throws 240 IP each year, put up numbers consistent with his career numbers, and made $10mm in 2011, but will make $60mm from 2012-2014.

 

It's not even close. Literally, the only thing that is the same between the two is that they're both Hispanic and have 3 years left on their contracts.

 

The best way the Mariners can get value out of Felix right now is by holding onto him. No team is going to pay what Felix would really be worth on the trade market at this time. Maybe in a year or two, but Felix is a prime example of a player who is priced out of the market right now.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Marlins would be stupid to deal Hanley right now. You dont trade your assets when their value is low. Felix could be dealt, but his value is so damn high that nobody could reach it. Jimenez isnt even close to Felix's class and he netted two former 1st rounders and future top of the rotation guys in White and Pomeranz.

[a700hitter]

Bay? Are you f8cking kidding? Seriously, Bay?

He's averaged a 0.723 OPS the last 2 seasons. The problem isn't Citi field, it's that the Sox were right and his knees are gone. Why the hell would you want to swap a Healthy overpaid underperformer for a unhealthy overpaid underperformer?

 

That might be the worst idea I've seen.

He hasn't had any knee problems. I watch about half of the Mets games and I can tell you that the one thing he still does well is run. He was never a speed burner, but he still has good speed and bust his tail to first every single time. He's a mental mess. It's sad what has happened to him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bay has been nagged by concussion issues. If he's the DH and doesnt have to play the field then that could help him regain his form. I think the sox would net out better if they made such a move

[jacksonianmarch]

Look' date=' honestly, If it were me, I'd trade him. I've watched good-great pitching in Seattle for the past decade, but I can't hardly remember the last time I was excited that someone was up to bat. I would love to have about just about anybody in the Red Sox' lineup. Seattle is a bandwagon city though. The fans, who are already avoiding Safeco like the plague, are not going to be okay with losing Felix. I think that's the last time I will say it. I just thought I'd let you know... it isn't happening. He's the Seattle Linecum. Again, if you want a good- realistic- pitcher from Seattle, rosterbate about Pineada. He had a 9.1 SO/9 this year. Second to Morrow. He'd be good in Boston and a name small enough still in Seattle that they could justify trading him for the right deal. baseball-reference.com/players/p/pinedmi01.shtml[/quote']

 

Pineda isnt getting dealt. He was awesome this yr in his rookie campaign.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Say what you will about the pricetag on Felix, but the haul of prospects we could get for Ellsbury after the season he's had would more than put us in a great position to make a deal for Felix.

[jacksonianmarch]

Say what you will about the pricetag on Felix' date=' but the haul of prospects we could get for Ellsbury after the season he's had would more than put us in a great position to make a deal for Felix.[/quote']

 

Thing is, I dont know if any team has the kind of prospects it would take to get Felix. The market was set by Jimenez. The sox would have to deal Ellsbury and get two top 50 prospects, then add them to Lavarnway, Ranaudo and Jacobs and they might listen.

[Palodios]

Thing is' date=' I dont know if any team has the kind of prospects it would take to get Felix. The market was set by Jimenez. The sox would have to deal Ellsbury and get two top 50 prospects, then add them to Lavarnway, Ranaudo and Jacobs and they might listen.[/quote']

 

The Mariners would likely end up with three top 50 prospects, and a top 100 prospect in this deal. That is one hell of a haul for a guy that costs that much. If he's that untouchable, the Sox could try the Dodgers.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Mariners would likely end up with three top 50 prospects' date=' and a top 100 prospect in this deal. That is one hell of a haul for a guy that costs that much. If he's that untouchable, the Sox could try the Dodgers.[/quote']

 

for Kershaw? That kid is still somewhat cheap

[redsoxbeatz]

What about that guy Kalish? He could be our RFer.

 

I hope we see Iglesias next year too... a lot more of him i mean.

 

But, our offense was the f***ing bomb-ass-titties this year. Our payroll is gettin' maxed out (how much comes off the books next year?) we should put our money into a pitcher or two.

 

and let's go get King Felix. Or someone...there must be one or two 4th/5th starter type guys out there that can keep a 3.01-3.80/era avg through a season. I am really curious to see who our new pitcher will be. It's pretty obvious a new pitcher will have to be gotten from somewhere. The Red Sox are ready to win a WS they just need a pitcher.

[redsoxrules]

Thing is' date=' I dont know if any team has the kind of prospects it would take to get Felix. The market was set by Jimenez. [b']The sox would have to deal Ellsbury and get two top 50 prospects, then add them to Lavarnway, Ranaudo and Jacobs and they might listen[/b].

 

Ellsbury > Felix if we're going by the numbers they've put up this year and the mariners would get the better end of this deal by far IF Ellsbury keeps putting up these numbers or close to it .

 

I dont think you realize how big of season Ellsbury has had.

[johndango]

Ellsbury > Felix if we're going by the numbers they've put up this year and the mariners would get the better end of this deal by far IF Ellsbury keeps putting up these numbers or close to it .

 

I dont think you realize how big of season Ellsbury has had.

 

Safeco Field lessens his value. It lessens every bat's value. It makes pitching easy to come up with though I suppose. I personally believe Ellsbury's season was overachieved and don't expect this sort of performance again. Hell, he posted a negative WAR last season (though I would also consider that a fluke). I think his true value is somewhere in the range 2-3 WAR. Whereas I, trying to be totally realistic here, view Felix's true value somewhere in the range of 4-5 WAR.

 

For comparisons sake we'll take the last 4 seasons of Ells' WAR (leaving the first one off because, hey, rookie.) He had: 3.5, 2.1, -0.3, 7.2. That represents his age 24-27 seasons. Felix on the other hand had 4.5, 5.8, 6.2, 4.7 in his age 22-25 seasons.

 

I have to think that Ellsbury doesn't look all that attractive to the M's and IMO Ellsbury

 

EDIT: He also had decent positive WAR numbers for the two years leading up to that.

[redsoxfan3]

I am not liking the articles I am reading about Lackey on redsox.com. It is saying Lackey needs to get back on track for 2012. How about we get his ass back on track by trading him, if we can. I am not comfortable at all with Lackey in this rotation.

 

Also, redsox.com is saying Theo wants Papelbon and Ortiz back. I would not mind if either returned. I just would be pissed if it costs us an arm and a leg. Papelbon is an elite closer, he just had a couple mistakes down the stretch. I think it is a learning experience that he will overcome. The same goes for Bard. I also like Papi back for maybe a one year deal, with a team option for 2013. He is getting old and I don't want a big multiyear deal with him if he plays like s*** next year. I say give him a chance with how well he did this year. I think he still has some gas left in the tank.

[BornToRun]

Papi and Paps will be back, I think. Scutaro's coming back. I think we need to look for some kind of innings eater for the back end of the rotation. I don't completely blame Theo for the lack of starting pitching depth, no one could've guessed how devastated our rotation would be by injury this season but a couple extra guys to back up the injuries would've been huge.

[jacksonianmarch]

the problem is, you cannot get guys on MiLB deals who are willing to be contingencies. Well, at least not guys who'd be worth a damn. Millwood was the exception. You need to have guys in the pen or guys in the high minors who can give you innings in a pinch out of the rotation.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ellsbury > Felix if we're going by the numbers they've put up this year and the mariners would get the better end of this deal by far IF Ellsbury keeps putting up these numbers or close to it .

 

I dont think you realize how big of season Ellsbury has had.

 

I dont think you realize how important Felix is. Ellsbury just had an awesome season, but this is his first dominant season. Felix has been an ace for years AND he's only 25

[jung]

Hate to say it Ortiz has to go and while I have said basically the same thing about the DH position you guys have said it better than I did. If however Ortiz can be kept on for really short money that would be a different story.

 

AGons clearly struggled in the second half and Youk is fragile. We need somebody that can play at first base and spell AGons. We rotate AGons, Youk and player to be named at DH.

 

I don't know how I feel about trading Ells other than to agree that I think he overachieved this season and will find 30/30's hard to come by. However we have screwed up so many times looking for that last stud pitcher.....Dice.....Lackey. Beckett is not what he was a few years ago and I think he needs to make the Greg Maddox conversion having lost something off the heater at this point. If Buckholtz, Lester and Beckett pitch to their potential those are three pretty good starters. We need to eat innings. Moving Bard or Aceves into the rotation may solve part of the problem.

 

I would explore avenues that get us a stud but I would not go crazy with that as we have given up so much money, flexibility and prospects to no avail in that regard. I would definitely work to bring in an additional starter but I am not willing to see this team screwed up even worse in the hunt for a stud. A good, serviceable starter that eats innings could be just fine.

 

With the uncertainty over guys that can't really be moved but must be fixed, I am not convinced that looking at this team from the perspective of being a serious world series contender again as soon as 2012 is realistic. We might just have to be content with being the kind of team that backs into world series contention in 2012 as opposed to being the kind of team that will be expected to get to the ALCS just by throwing their gloves out on the field.

 

This mentality of making big money free agent signings as a means to put fannies in seats has finally been exposed for what it is.

[a700hitter]

I think they will resign Papelbon in part because they do not have a lot of confidence in Bard in that role. I realize that wins-losses is not the best measure of a pitchers success, but 2-9 is astonishingly bad. It seems that Bard would like to give starting a shot. He couldn't be worse than Wakefield, Miller, and Dice K. If he takes the ball every 5th day that would be a big improvement. The 5th spot has lacked consistency since Bronson Arroyo. To fill the 8th inning slot, I would pursue Heath Bell.