Would you do an Ellsbury for Lincecum trade?

[Spitball]

Rather, it's your unspoken presumption that Ellsbury will significantly drop off. I disagree. How foolish would the Jays look now if they had traded Jose Bautista over the last winter meetings? Instead they took a risk, extended him early to a 5 year/65 million dollar deal and have an absolute bargain in terms of WAR per dollar spent.

 

Do you know the final war rankings for position players in 2011?

1. Jacoby Ellsbury 9.4

2. Matt Kemp 8.7

3. Jose Bautista 8.3

4. Dustin Pedroia 8.0

5. Ryan Braun 7.8

 

Ellsbury had the HIGHEST WAR of any player in the major leagues. He has blossomed, just the way Bautista has blossomed, just as Pedroia has blossomed. It would make far MORE sense to lock up Ellsbury to a Pedroia or Bautista type deal and ensure that the Red Sox keep 2 of the highest WAR producers in all of MLB.

 

It would be great to get more starting pitching. But again unless you're getting a can't miss stud like King Felix in return, I say hang onto Ellsbury, he's our future #3 hitter in the heart of the Red Sox lineup for the next 5+ years. I say starting pitching is more likely to come via free agency than trade. Sure we got bitten by Lackey but that doesn't mean we should stop trying.

 

 

 

Scutaro's not a problem but he isn't a solution either. He doesn't have the athleticism or range to be a major league starting shortstop, and defense up the middle C/SS/CF are absolutely vital to success. When a pitcher knows that the guys behind him will fully back him up, that gives him that much more confidence.

 

Give me Reyes and you'll see better defense, and an even more potent lineup for the Red Sox. If we have to find a way to dump Crawford to be able to afford Reyes, then i say do it. Crawford has speed and athleticism but has never displayed the leadoff skills that the Red Sox need. You've also got to wonder if Crawfords woes in Boston mean that he either can't handle the pressure of playing in Boston or if he's just not suited for Fenway.

 

Ha! you are missing the point. First, Bautista's production does not parlay into Ellsbury's future production. There is no historical evidence to prove the two players have parallel abilities or production. Absolutely none. Second, Ellsbury has Scott Boras as an agent and Bautista does not.

 

Forget Reyes. The Red Sox, like most teams, could use the guy, but he can't be a priority.

 

You seem to be blind to the obvious need for pitching. The Giants won the WS last year with much less offense than the Sox have now. What was the difference?

[Cairns_Sox]

I do not understand this frantic eagerness to trade Ellsbury at all. If anything we should be looking to build a team around him.

 

This.

[iMagic10]

I would any day of the week. Lincecum is the type of player we need at Boston.

[Gringo]

Nope. Lincecum is a NL pitcher. He'd get roughed up in the AL, especially in the East. He's shown this year that he's human, and he's also a little guy who hurls, which would concern me in terms of injury potential. I'd take Kershaw though

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Nope. Lincecum is a NL pitcher. He'd get roughed up in the AL' date=' especially in the East. He's shown this year that he's human, and he's also a little guy who hurls, which would concern me in terms of injury potential. I'd take [b']Kershaw[/b] though

 

Dodgers play in the NL

[jung]

I think Lincecum is a great pitcher and while he would have to deal with the NL to AL East conversion, every pitcher coming out of the NL especially going to the East has to deal with that. His numbers would get dinged in the process but I cannot see him going from a great pitcher with great numbers to a pitcher with rotten numbers because of it.

 

I am however concerned with his size and his pitching style. We were on pins and needles with Pedro while he was here and he did break down, had to come back, had to reinvent his pitching more than once. Pedro did that fairly successfully but there were a number of transitions he had to go through and he did deteriorate along the way and did lose playing time even though the transitions have to be considered a success.

 

Lincecom appears to me to exert even more stress on that arm of his as he really does use his body to generate what looks like an ungodly amount of torque. I have often thought his control to be amazing given the violence of his arm motion. At the same time, I keep expecting to see his arm on the ground half way to home plate one of these times. If a number of these other moves had not turned out to be gambles that failed to produce, I would be more inclined to take a risk on Tim. He is that good. But we are so up against it now that I have trouble with the idea that we lose Ells to get a guy that might very easily blow up his arm the very first year he is here. How screwed would we be then. No Ells, no Tim, we are paying on yet another guaranteed contract, probably offed some other starting pitching figuring that we have Tim, no Dice cause he is not back yet.

 

I think this team is going to be forced into a more conservative mode in both its trade and its FA activity as it has so much money it is committed to for players that they have to fix as it is. At least with Ells and Pedey if Lavarnway turns out to be the answer behind the plate then we are a very strong team up the middle. Scuts holds us for one year at SS and hopefully we have a better answer at SS after 2012. Frankly I don't know that there is a way to bring Tim here that will not require us to give up a good many performing assets or our best performing assets. If you can package up some of these players that are good players that we are ready to move anyway with some of the guys down on the farm and find a way to Tim that way, I would be fine with that. Still in all I would rather getting a starting pitcher that was a bit sturdier.

 

Plus, it appears more and more likely that we are going to have to find both a new Manager and a new General Manager and the entire management and player personnel direction is going to have to be reworked and implemented. So I don't see the team's best assets sent packing in this environment regardless of the obvious value of starting pitching, especially great starting pitching.

 

I do think we will see guys traded that we would not have seen traded in other years.

 

I simply think that at least for now this era of building a team that looks in pre-season like they just have to throw their gloves out onto the field to make the ALCS is done. That is not to say that they won't get there. I just don't think they will be that early pre-season favorite to get there again for awhile.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lincecum is as good as it gets. The kid is a strikeout pitcher with great control and he's young. If he goes to the AL East, he'd still shine.

[Cairns_Sox]

Does anyone really think that SF will give him for Ellsbury? I know they need offense but at the end of the day it was pitching that won them the WS. I don't think they let go their best and youngest pitcher for anyone.

 

I'd take Sanchez though. Not for Ellsbury though of course.

[Spitball]

Does anyone really think that SF will give him for Ellsbury? I know they need offense but at the end of the day it was pitching that won them the WS. I don't think they let go their best and youngest pitcher for anyone.

 

The Giants signed Aaron Rowand to a monsterous contract, and they signed Miguel Tejada all in the hopes of improving their offense. They are a team in need of offense. The Red Sox have had similar problems signing starting pitching (Lackey, Dice-K). Ellsbury is only under contract for two more years. Lincecum is under contract for only two more years. It is a good match.

 

I'd take Sanchez though. Not for Ellsbury though of course.

 

I am afraid there is not a good match on the Red Sox for his services.

[Cairns_Sox]

The Giants signed Aaron Rowand to a monsterous contract' date=' and they signed Miguel Tejada all in the hopes of improving their offense. They are a team in need of offense. The Red Sox have had similar problems signing starting pitching (Lackey, Dice-K). Ellsbury is only under contract for two more years. Lincecum is under contract for only two more years. It is a good match.[/quote']

 

Didn't they DL those two guys? It's a double edge sword though. I mean if this deal did happen, we pick up a lights out pitcher but we lose a big part of offensive production. I mean who replaces Ellsbury in CF? I think losing him hurts us massively as i don't think Youk and Crawford are guys we can count on.

[example1]

Didn't they DL those two guys? It's a double edge sword though. I mean if this deal did happen' date=' we pick up and lights out pitcher but we lose a big part of offensive production. I mean who replaces Ellsbury in CF? I think losing him hurts us massively as i don't think Youk and Crawford are guys we can count on.[/quote']

 

Kalish. Kalish replaces him in CF.

 

I don't think SF would be interested in moving Lincecum.

[Cairns_Sox]

Kalish. Kalish replaces him in CF.

 

I don't think SF would be interested in moving Lincecum.

 

I don't think so either. It's easy to replace him positionally just not his production in my opinion.

[example1]

I don't think so either. It's easy to replace him positionally just not his production in my opinion.

 

His production was so above and beyond what anyone expected that it is very hard to pencil him in for that moving forwad. So he's just going to be HOF caliber from here on out?

 

Albert Pujols has had ONE better season (according to Fangraphs WAR). Hanley Ramirez has never had a season like that. Neither has Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, or Miguel Cabrera. A-Rod had a few that were better. Bonds had a few that were better. At their peak, those guys wouldn't be traded for anyone.

 

A guy like Willie Mays put up seasons like that over and over and over again. Just for points of reference.

 

Ellsbury is a tremendous athlete. He might be a once in a generation talent capable of putting up HOF caliber numbers. Or, he may regress to a 3-5 WAR caliber player. The later is more likely, but the possibility of the former would make trading him really, really risky.

 

It's probably safe to assume the Sox aren't going to move him. If Crawford becomes the 4-5 WAR guy he was for most of his career then this team easily has the best offense in baseball regardless of what happens with Ortiz.

[Cairns_Sox]

I'd take the risk of keeping him and hoping he is consistent next season. I'd be looking to ship Youk and Beckett and seeing what we could net for them. I definitely don't think it would be anything to great, someone who can stay healthy and contribute with a good attitude id be happy.

[example1]

I'd take the risk of keeping him and hoping he is consistent next season. I'd be looking to ship Youk and Beckett and seeing what we could net for them. I definitely don't think it would be anything to great' date=' someone who can stay healthy and contribute with a good attitude id be happy.[/quote']

 

Just for fun:

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Gonzalez

?? (Ortiz)

Crawford

Lavarnway

Lowrie (3B )

Kalish

Scutaro

 

Lincecum

Lester

Buchholz

Lackey

5 (Buehrle/Doubront/Aceves)

 

Meh... I don't see it happening but its fun nonetheless.

[Cairns_Sox]

Just for fun:

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Gonzalez

?? (Ortiz)

Crawford

Lavarnway

Lowrie (3B )

Kalish

Scutaro

 

Lincecum

Lester

Buchholz

Lackey

5 (Buehrle/Doubront/Aceves)

 

Meh... I don't see it happening but its fun nonetheless.

 

It sure is. I was kinda hoping the Cards wouldn't hold onto Wainwright and we could grab him. Not to be, which sucks.

[Spitball]

Just for fun:

 

 

Meh... I don't see it happening but its fun nonetheless.

 

Which is the point of Hot Stove threads. They are for fun and not likely to happen.

 

For many of us, we start thinking baseball in February and are not capable of turning off the thoughts when the Sox happen to end their season.

 

That said, I'd like to make a few points...just because I can't stop.

 

* The Red Sox' greatest need is to improve their starting pitching.

- There is the option of C.J.Wilson as a free agent, but he will be an expensive gamble over 6 or 7 years. Boston is not his likely destination. Lackey and Matsuzaka have proven this to be unsafe road to travel.

 

* The Red Sox lead the AL or were second in the major offensive catagories.

-Even with Ellsbury out of the totals, they have a wealth of offense on the roster and pretty much in the system.

 

* Jacoby Ellsbury just had possibly a career year.

-Minor league statistics are an accurate predictor of future production, and Ellsbury had never broken double figures in homeruns an any one season.

-He will be a free agent in two years.

 

* The Giants have a terrible offense.

- It cost them a chance to defend their title.

 

* The Giants have wealth of starting pitchers.

-Lincecum, Cain, Baughgarden, and Sanchez.

 

* Lincecum may not be untouchable.

-Stats show some decline. It is not significant but is steady.

-As has been pointed out, his size and delivery are factors.

-He will be a free agent in two years.

 

* For the Sox to acquire substantial starting pitching improvement, they are going to have sacrifice something of value.

- Free agency money is unlikely.

-They will have to trade a player or players of value.

 

 

This all brings us to two years of Lincecum for two years of Ellsbury. With the current market for free agent starting aces, two years of any starter sounds ideal (safe) to me. In two years, the Sox hopefully will have developed some other options for developing a starting staff.

 

Ellsbury will test the market after two years. Boras clients do that.

 

Some here may be old enought to remember when Fred Lynn and Jim Rice came up with the Red Sox at the tail end of 1974. Both were highly touted, but it was Fred Lynn who was the Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player in 1975. Rice was good, but Lynn was golden.

 

If judged on that one year, Lynn would be in the Hall of Fame and Rice would be just another in a line of good Sox outfielders. As it turned out, Rice was the HOFer because he had a better career. Lynn, like Ellsbury, played centerfield and that took its toll on his health. If Lynn had played left or right his whole career, he may have stayed healthy enough, but we will never know. Injuries are hard to call, but centerfielders have to cover a lot of ground to either side and do wear down and get injured.

 

If anyone is still reading, thanks for putting up with this rambling post.

[Interestedobserver]

I live in San Francisco. Lincecum is arguably the face of the franchise and his picture is all over billboards. They're not trading him.

[Spitball]

I live in San Francisco. Lincecum is arguably the face of the franchise and his picture is all over billboards. They're not trading him.

 

Maybe the Giants would trade Lincecum:

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/San-Francisco-Giants-Tim-Lincecum-will-team-trade-ace-110311

[Emmz]

Ugh, I almost got sick reading that stuff more towards the bottom about the Twins, just feels like they're not going to compete for another 10 years.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Maybe the Giants would trade Lincecum:

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/San-Francisco-Giants-Tim-Lincecum-will-team-trade-ace-110311

 

This is interesting. If the Sox traded for him, it would take Ellsbury + a top prospect (think Ranaudo, Middlebrooks, Boegarts, Jacobs, Kalish) + a low level prospect to get it done, and the Sox would probably get a mid-level prospect back with Lincecum.

 

Would we be willing to throw Ellsbury + Boegarts + Chris Balcom-Miller for Lincecum + Mid-Level? Thats a big, big haul, but if we're being honest, that's probably what it would take.

 

Personally, I'd pull the trigger.

[Laser Show]

This is interesting. If the Sox traded for him, it would take Ellsbury + a top prospect (think Ranaudo, Middlebrooks, Boegarts, Jacobs, Kalish) + a low level prospect to get it done, and the Sox would probably get a mid-level prospect back with Lincecum.

 

Would we be willing to throw Ellsbury + Boegarts + Chris Balcom-Miller for Lincecum + Mid-Level? Thats a big, big haul, but if we're being honest, that's probably what it would take.

 

Personally, I'd pull the trigger.

 

I would absolutely pull the trigger on that deal. It seems very unlikely that that is all it would take however. I could see the Giants asking for Ellsbury and 2 high level prospects at the very least for Lincecum. Lincecum is proven and while Ellsbury just finished an MVP-caliber year, he's only been that good once.

[Palodios]

This is interesting. If the Sox traded for him, it would take Ellsbury + a top prospect (think Ranaudo, Middlebrooks, Boegarts, Jacobs, Kalish) + a low level prospect to get it done, and the Sox would probably get a mid-level prospect back with Lincecum.

 

Would we be willing to throw Ellsbury + Boegarts + Chris Balcom-Miller for Lincecum + Mid-Level? Thats a big, big haul, but if we're being honest, that's probably what it would take.

 

Personally, I'd pull the trigger.

 

I would not include a high level prospect in the deal, but maybe a mid-level. If they want an MVP, they have to give up a Cy Young for him. Plus, I'm concerned that Tim's munchies might lead him to a fried chicken addiction.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I would not include a high level prospect in the deal' date=' but maybe a mid-level. If they want an MVP, they have to give up a Cy Young for him. Plus, I'm concerned that Tim's munchies might lead him to a fried chicken addiction.[/quote']

 

Well, Lincecum is a 2-time Cy Young winner. Ellsbury had a complete break out year this year. I know that Ells is an absolutely tremendous player, but I need to see multiple years of 20-30 HR power before I put him on Lincecum's caliber.

 

Regardless, I would still go with Ellsbury + Bogaerts. To be honest, I would overpay for Lincecum and add a guy like Kalish or Reddick to the deal, as long as we got a mid-to-high level OF prospect in return.

[Palodios]

Well, Lincecum is a 2-time Cy Young winner. Ellsbury had a complete break out year this year. I know that Ells is an absolutely tremendous player, but I need to see multiple years of 20-30 HR power before I put him on Lincecum's caliber.

 

Regardless, I would still go with Ellsbury + Bogaerts. To be honest, I would overpay for Lincecum and add a guy like Kalish or Reddick to the deal, as long as we got a mid-to-high level OF prospect in return.

 

Well, the problem with adding Reddick or Kalish to the deal is how badly that depletes the Sox outfield. Even if you move Crawford to center, filling right and left with such a mediocre OF market will be a challenge. The Sox will have to pay big money to keep Tim, and then they still need a fifth starter, and an entire bullpen to rebuild.

[Laser Show]

What about the idea of taking on the last couple years of Barry Zito? We may be able to turn him around.

 

Ellsbury, Bogaerts, Doubront for Lincecum, Zito, $15MM?

[Laser Show]

Well' date=' the problem with adding Reddick or Kalish to the deal is how badly that depletes the Sox outfield. Even if you move Crawford to center, filling right and left with such a mediocre OF market will be a challenge. The Sox will have to pay big money to keep Tim, and then they still need a fifth starter, and an entire bullpen to rebuild.[/quote']

 

LF- Beltran/Cuddyer

CF- Crawford

RF- Reddick/Kalish

 

That is still a solid outfield. We have an abundance of hitting. We NEED pitching. Whoever replaces Ellsbury and the Drew/Reddick combination doesn't have to put up .320/40/130 numbers. As long as they aren't hitting at the Mendoza line, we'll still have a potent offense.

[Palodios]

LF- Beltran/Cuddyer

CF- Crawford

RF- Reddick/Kalish

 

That is still a solid outfield. We have an abundance of hitting. We NEED pitching. Whoever replaces Ellsbury and the Drew/Reddick combination doesn't have to put up .320/40/130 numbers. As long as they aren't hitting at the Mendoza line, we'll still have a potent offense.

 

This team needs to prepare for the departure/decline of David Ortiz. Even if he re-signs, he will never hit like 2011 ever again. Losing Ellsbury and Ortiz is bad enough. Replacing RF with a league average player could devastate the offense.

[Laser Show]

This team needs to prepare for the departure/decline of David Ortiz. Even if he re-signs' date=' he will never hit like 2011 ever again. Losing Ellsbury and Ortiz is bad enough. Replacing RF with a league average player could devastate the offense.[/quote']

 

An offense with Gonzo, Pedroia, Crawford, and Youk at the top is still going to be a top 3 or 4 offense, without Ortiz and Ellsbury.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This team needs to prepare for the departure/decline of David Ortiz. Even if he re-signs' date=' he will never hit like 2011 ever again. Losing Ellsbury and Ortiz is bad enough. Replacing RF with a league average player could devastate the offense.[/quote']

 

Couple things you have to remember.

 

1. Last year, our RF hit .233/.299/.353/.652. Replacing our RF with a league-average player would actually be an upgrade over last year's performers.

 

2. Carl Crawford is not a .255/.289/.405 hitter. It is absolutely reasonable to count on him to be a bounce back player.

 

So you look at this OF, and you think - Can I replace my .233/.299/.353 RF and my .255/.289/.405 LF with Free Agents, and have similar or better production than last season?

 

I don't think it's even a question. Those are putrid numbers.

 

I'm not sure you realized before posting just how bad our RF was last year, because I'll be honest, I had no idea. I knew it was bad, but I was expecting at least a .245/.315/.380 kind of season.