2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[example1]

Jung, Matsuzaka did have 200+k his first season and was 4th cy young voting his second. 200k isn't an easy feat and certainly requires some aggressiveness.

 

I think the nuances of the posting system sweeten the investment pot for teams. Getting access to talented players with less cost to them in cap space has some value.

[iortiz]

You think Buehrle is worth four years at almost 15m? He's a non-spectacular innings eater. Very similar contract to Lackeys, because he doesn't have ace stuff.

 

Wilson? His deal isn't horrible, but it is certainly a big FA contract. If he's anything but an ace it will be an overpay at the end, when he is paid 20m in year 5.

 

I think FA is almost by definition an overpay.

 

I see Buehrle and CJ posting their career numbers, why not? I'm not saying they are aces, but solid, don't you think?

[jung]

The reasonable supposition is that it makes lots of sense to not go over the LT this year if they can help it. It also makes sense to save their chips for next year and to be prepared to unload salary for those pitchers.

 

This to some extent depends on whether or not the Sox are insistent on getting back to a 0 LT tax rate. I have been frustrated by the uncertainty myself and MLB has not released the 2011 tax bills yet. If they went over in 2010 and 2011 then they will need to stay under in both 2012 and 2013 to get back to where they appear to want to go. This is why going over by a ridiculous $1.5M in 2010 was such a crime.

 

The LT is much like a speeding ticket. It is not the size of the fine that gets you with a speeding ticket. It is the three years of excessive insurance rates that kill ya'. With the LT it is not really the one year tax hit that kills ya'. It is the corner you get boxed into by putting yourself at risk for the really high 3rd and 4th year rates.

 

It depends on how deep that line in the sand is and whether JH is going to insist on seeing them get back to a 0 LT tax rate again.

[example1]

Nobody is against Madson at all' date=' It's about how much they are going to give him if he comes, of course. If they give him something close to Pap's contract and shits the bed, everybody is going to be pissed off and will point the FO, and not Madson, well maybe after pointing the FO, I guess, and you know who will be in the first row.[/quote']

 

I see Buehrle and CJ posting their career numbers' date=' why not? I'm not saying they are aces, but solid, don't you think?[/quote']

 

I felt exactly that way after watching lackey have good outings bs NYY in the 2009 playoffs. Innings eater, veteran. Smart enough to get outs and pitch innings. I saw it as an over pay for the sox but with a relatively high chance that adding him as a third or fourth SP virtually assured them of a playoff spot. I was wrong, obviously...

[iortiz]

I felt exactly that way after watching lackey have good outings bs NYY in the 2009 playoffs. Innings eater' date=' veteran. Smart enough to get outs and pitch innings. I saw it as an over pay for the sox but with a relatively high chance that adding him as a third or fourth SP virtually assured them of a playoff spot. I was wrong, obviously...[/quote']

 

After Lackey's contract and his terrible 2011 performance everybody in Boston tends to think and compare those type of pitchers and contracts with him. (I include myself)

 

Lackey is making more than these guys, regardless the market today is more expensive. Hell, Lackey just ate 2011, 2012 (30 M?) and is making what Beckett is making. Imagine Buehrle as a number 4 in our team. Beckett, Lester, Buch, Buehrle, Bard. Not bad huh?

[jung]

Since the 2012 season will be a bust for dice you can basically close the Sox book on him now. So we will have gotten two good years out of him offset by four atrocious years.

[Emmz]

You think Buehrle is worth four years at almost 15m? He's a non-spectacular innings eater. Very similar contract to Lackeys, because he doesn't have ace stuff.

 

Wilson? His deal isn't horrible, but it is certainly a big FA contract. If he's anything but an ace it will be an overpay at the end, when he is paid 20m in year 5.

 

I think FA is almost by definition an overpay.

 

Unless you're going dumpster diving, you can't do much but overpay at the moment. I thought it was ridiculous when who was it, Gil Meche or something? When KC gave him that huge contract I think like 5 years ago? Now that's chump change. Every starting pitcher makes that much now.

[Soxfan1]

I hope that rather than commit a lot of money to a high risk/high reward guy like Darvish / Madson, the Sox take a couple low risk/high reward chances, like Joe Saunders. Also, if we could get Andy Sonnanstine on a minor league deal with incentives I'd be intrigued.

 

Why does everyone have to get so high strung about the Sox not dropping bank on a big name. Do I even need to name off the low risk/high reward guys that have paid off in the last decade? The biggest spenders in baseball last year took chances with Garcia and Colon and look how that paid off.

 

Keep Bard in the pen and let him close. When it comes down to it he's a power pitcher and he should use Spring Training to get control problems settled rather that stretching out his arm. If he can get those BB's down and the K's up, the Sox have their new Papelbon.

[Emmz]

I felt exactly that way after watching lackey have good outings bs NYY in the 2009 playoffs. Innings eater' date=' veteran. Smart enough to get outs and pitch innings. I saw it as an over pay for the sox but with a relatively high chance that adding him as a third or fourth SP virtually assured them of a playoff spot. I was wrong, obviously...[/quote']

 

Well Lackey wasn't too bad that first year in all fairness. I'm content with overpaying if they at least do what they did in the year before they signed (or better). I think Buehrle definitely is a much better contract. He's shown 0 signs of slowing down, and while he's not overpowering or anything, he's got the type of stuff that doesn't need to be spectacular. He gets through innings quickly and he's very consistent for a SP. I think 14M for him could be a pretty sweet deal actually.

 

That Wilson deal kind of sucks though. I don't know if I'd want to invest so much on a guy who just became a SP a couple of years ago, is in the 30s, and has a relatively small sample size of success in comparison to other pitchers given those monster deals, especially when you consider the age.

[Emmz]

And also, the Yankees got lucky with their dumpster diving. Most low risk high reward type deals are ones like the Beltre deal or that deal that the Angels got on Abreu.

 

I'm all for dumpster diving though, for the right price, almost anyone is worth some sort of risk, though when it gets to be that good of a price, there really is no risk. Like Garcia and Colon were two guys who probably weren't going to turn out, but the price was so good and both of them did have a good amount of past success.

 

Garcia was just plain lucky all year, and Colon was sort of cheating. Usually those gambles really aren't going to pay off. Remember the last time the Sox tried that with Penny and Smoltz. They ate total s*** on those deals. It adds up if the pricetag isn't really really good though.

[iortiz]

Yup. Solid, proved and healthy SPs make that much these days.

 

I'm not against paying those contracts. I'm against paying those contracts without solid business cases which support those contracts.

 

The little problem with Mr. John Lackey is that he wasn't an ace and was paid as one, and if the guy for some reason shits the bed as he did in big time regardless he is going to surgery, the scrutiny about his contract raise and raise even more in the environment. Some of our FA signings have these kind of issues among others. Some of them weren't solid business cases reason why a lot of fans have fear about FAs now, even the owners these days. Theo's legacy about this issue made this bad feeling in our environment, reason why some of us tended to point at the FO first and then the players.

 

On the other hand, Buehrle as Emmz said, is making what a pitcher of his category is making maybe a bit more or a bit less but still in the range. If he fails, Sure, you can blame the FO if you want, but you need to point at the player first.

[Emmz]

I'm sorry, but how can you say you're opposed to the Lackey deal in hindsight, if you're not opposed to what Buehrle just got? Lackey was pretty much just like Buehrle during his tenure with the Angels, and their contracts are identical in all but the years.

 

116 ERA+ with 1.306 WHIP in 1,501 innings for Lackey vs. 120 ERA+ with 1.288 WHIP in 1,788.1 innings for Buehrle.

 

Pretty much identical, and while Buehrle gets the edge but it's only slightly. Even in innings it would have been much closer had Lackey not pitched 3 incomplete seasons.

[iortiz]

I'm sorry' date=' but how can you say you're opposed to the Lackey deal in hindsight, if you're not opposed to what Buehrle just got? Lackey was pretty much just like Buehrle during his tenure with the Angels, and their contracts are identical in all [b']but the years[/b].

 

116 ERA+ with 1.306 WHIP in 1,501 innings for Lackey vs. 120 ERA+ with 1.288 WHIP in 1,788.1 innings for Buehrle.

 

Pretty much identical, and while Buehrle gets the edge but it's only slightly. Even in innings it would have been much closer had Lackey not pitched 3 incomplete seasons.

 

Bingo.

 

How much is going to make Buehrle? 60/4? What is the value of that contract, two years ago?, now, compare it with Lackey's current contract and you'll find my concern.

 

They overpaid the guy.

 

Lackey's case vs contract was very risky, I used to say.

[Emmz]

eh, you can't really use the value-in-hindsight thing, and as for the years, Lackey is younger. I still don't see how you can justify one but not the other.

[Emmz]

Oh psych, Lackey is older LOL WTF, I so thought he was younger than that, that is a horrible contract.

 

I didn't even realize that Lackey was 33 until just now. I absolutely change my stance on that dude 100% from what I would've said about 6 months ago, that he could still rebound, etc.

[iortiz]

Lol

[iortiz]

Hopefully he can return, going to be a loooooong shot.

[Emmz]

I will never defend John Lackey again.

[iortiz]

[Emmz]

To everyone who I defended John Lackey against, and I'm sure I was a ass about it too, I apologize.

 

I feel herp derpy.

[Palodios]

....I didnt say anything about Lackey. I, like yourself (probably) scratched my head when they signed him. He was never an ace and didnt deserve that money and we all knew it before he ever threw a pitch here. I am not going to sit here and tell you that I knew Lackey would fail, because I didnt. When they signed him it did raise red flags though.

 

Also, dont forget, Dice-Ks scouting reports said he was the real deal too. They said he threw a magical pitch (which as it turns out, doesnt exist...shocker)

 

dont believe me? Read his scouting report:

 

Click Here

 

I'm not sure why you're disregarding my point about Lackey. There are very few proven MLB players, that is my point. And Yu Darvish throws real pitches, not imaginary ones.

[a700hitter]

2. What would be wrong with signing Madson for a few million less than papelbon and a year or two shorter? How is that a bad thing again? He's a very good pitcher. Pitched for good teams in big situations. No big injury concerns. I don't get the freaking out, other than from those with an unreasonably high view of Papelbon--who has suddenly ascended to god-like status around here.

Papelbon was the best closer in Red Sox history who had done the job since 2006. There's nothing wrong with getting Madson, but for a few million more and a year longer, a lot of us would have preferred to keep Papelbon.

 

Do people believe Cherington would be well served to put all his cards on the table, explain the team strategy for all to hear? Should he be freaking out like many of you are, saying "good heavens me! We can't go into next season without a RH OF! Gracious, we will have to pay through the nose for some veteran who has closed before because we are desperate! Please be nice to us Scott Boras and the rest of the agents out there... We are desperate!".

No one is saying anytjhing of the sort. From observing the few moves that have been made on his watch, I.e. The loss of Papelbon, the inexplicable arbitration offer to Ortiz and the managerial hiring process, many fans are not feeling very confident. Couple that with hias inaction at the Winter meetings and his barely coherent statements to the press during those meetings and people are getting concerned. No one wants him to publisht the team's strategy, but we'd like to see some positive signs. Are you seeing anything positive so far?

 

 

 

He'll mo. This team could manage with RF as it is. They can and will find players for all the roles and might still sign a significant player or make a big trade. It does the team no good to look and act desperate. Remember, every potential signing is ammunition for many of you next year if the move doesn't work our. That would have included Papelbon too.

IMO, we need a right handed bat in the OF. Four lefties in the OF on a team where 2 of the 3 sluggeres are also left handed is not a very balanced team. I'm not sure what you are talking about with this "ammunition" reference. I don't think the FO is not making FA moves to avoid criticism on TalkSox, and I am equally sure that all of the fans on TalkSox, except the Yankee fans, would want the FO moves to work out.

[Dojji]

I'm not sure why you're disregarding my point about Lackey. There are very few proven MLB players' date=' that is my point. And Yu Darvish throws real pitches, not imaginary ones.[/quote']

 

Daisuke threw real pitches too. He wasn't posted because of the gyroball. The gyroball was just an easy thing to mock when he failed.

 

In the first 3 months of 2007 he was electrifying fans with a 96 mile an hour fastball. He still had that heat going well into interleague play. Go back and look over the highlights of that time, he was in the mid 90's not occasionally, but CONSISTENTLY. Whatever happened to that fastball, is what happened to Daisuke. Personally I think his shoulder was in trouble loooooong before he first admitted it to the team, and his numbers starting at about the all star game 2007 seem to lend some credence to that theory.

 

There's no real reason why that has to happen to Darvish of course. But a lot of the things that were true of Darvish are true of Dauske, and that includes the 6 man rotation problem, so it is a point of concern.

[example1]

A700, I dont disagree with your early assessment of Cherington. However, I won't hold it against him if a) his assessment of the current team is different from yours they have determined that the FA market isn't the optimal place to make the improvements or c) they have their eyes on a big trade. Let's just give it te before letting our concerns turn into full-blown panic.

 

As for comments (from others) about Buehrle and Wilsons contracts not being bad, I don't completely agree. Would Buehrle look good right now? Yes, but not as a real #4 for that price. Wilson has been a better pitcher the past few years (one of the best in the league) for not much more.

 

I just don't see the need to spend that much on guys like that. There are pitchers worth that, just not those guys.

[a700hitter]

The reasonable supposition is that it makes lots of sense to not go over the LT this year if they can help it. It also makes sense to save their chips for next year and to be prepared to unload salary for those pitchers.

 

How good would both Matt Cain and Cole Hamels look next year? If we knew they are going to make an all out rum for those two would that make the moves this year more sensible on the surface? Purely hypothetical...

I think the Giants have either extended Cain or are in the process of extending him, so I don't think he will be available next year.

[a700hitter]

You think Buehrle is worth four years at almost 15m? He's a non-spectacular innings eater. Very similar contract to Lackeys, because he doesn't have ace stuff.

 

Wilson? His deal isn't horrible, but it is certainly a big FA contract. If he's anything but an ace it will be an overpay at the end, when he is paid 20m in year 5.

 

I think FA is almost by definition an overpay.

The difference between Buehrle and Lackey is that Buerhle is much more durable and consistent. Prior to coming to the Sox, Lackey had arm trouble for 2 years and did not get to 30 starts in either year.

[a700hitter]

Red Sox To Sign Kelly Shoppach

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [December 13 at 9:35am CST]

 

The Red Sox have agreed to sign Kelly Shoppach to a one-year, $1.35MM deal, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). The deal will be announced today, Crasnick reports.

 

Shoppach, 31, hit just .176/.268/.339 in 253 plate appearances for the Rays in 2011, but he led the American League by preventing 41% of stolen base attempts. The Red Sox selected Shoppach in the second round of the 2001 draft. He made his MLB debut with the 2005 Red Sox before Boston shipped him to Cleveland in the Coco Crisp deal. The Rays declined Shoppach's option after the 2011 season and signed Jose Molina soon afterward.

 

Jarrod Saltalamacchia figures to be Boston's primary catcher in 2012 and with Ryan Lavarnway and Luis Exposito also on the 40-man roster, it doesn't appear that the Red Sox have room for longtime backstop Jason Varitek. The 39-year-old switch hitter posted a .221/.300/.324 line in 250 plate appearances this past season.

I guess this would fall under the category-- "under the radar." So much for Lavarnway getting playing time.

[redsoxfan3]

Red Sox To Sign Kelly Shoppach

 

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [December 13 at 9:35am CST]

 

The Red Sox have agreed to sign Kelly Shoppach to a one-year, $1.35MM deal, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). The deal will be announced today, Crasnick reports.

 

Shoppach, 31, hit just .176/.268/.339 in 253 plate appearances for the Rays in 2011, but he led the American League by preventing 41% of stolen base attempts. The Red Sox selected Shoppach in the second round of the 2001 draft. He made his MLB debut with the 2005 Red Sox before Boston shipped him to Cleveland in the Coco Crisp deal. The Rays declined Shoppach's option after the 2011 season and signed Jose Molina soon afterward.

 

Jarrod Saltalamacchia figures to be Boston's primary catcher in 2012 and with Ryan Lavarnway and Luis Exposito also on the 40-man roster, it doesn't appear that the Red Sox have room for longtime backstop Jason Varitek. The 39-year-old switch hitter posted a .221/.300/.324 line in 250 plate appearances this past season.

 

Not sure if anyone posted this yet, but I ran across this on mlbtraderumors.com. I am not against signing Shoppach because he will be a veteran catcher with a good arm to throw out runners. The only problem I have is that this more than likely means Lavarnway is going to be in AAA next year, especially with us resigning Papi. It is unfortunate because I feel like Lavarnway is ready offensively at the big league level.

[redsoxfan3]

I guess this would fall under the category-- "under the radar." So much for Lavarnway getting playing time.

 

Weird, I posted that a minute after you did. It sucks, but they must not feel like Lavarnway isn't ready defensively. It wouldn't make much since to keep Lavarnway on the major league roster as the third catcher and to just be a pinch hitter, it would take a lot of at bats away from him.

[example1]

Shoppach was very good against basestealers last year.

 

This could also make Lavarnway available for trade bait, which would greatly increase who they could get in return.