2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[example1]

I don't suspect Ellsbury. I'm just using him as an example that we could suspect lots of people.

 

As for Ortiz's "return to dominance", he had a monster year against righties in 2010, much better than he did in 2011. In 2010, he in fact had a very strong overall year. In 2011, he made an adjustment to take lefties the other way. I don't think PED's help you do that. His power output stayed at the same, and it went down significantly against righties. I don't think PED's would help you against lefties but hurt your performance against righties. That just doesn't make sense. The fact is that once Ortiz got over his wrist injury, he has remained a big force since June 2009. You can suspect, but I think you are way off base. I posted in this forum in May of 2009 that Ortiz still had bat speed and that his obit was premature. Look at his overall stats from June 2009, not his splits, and you will see that he has been a very consistent offensive force since then. 2011 was not such a big bounce back season. He made adjustments to keep himself from becoming a platoon player, but those adjustments actually hurt his performance against righties.

 

So you would sign him to a 3 year deal at 12m per year? Would you want them to overpay for him if he required 3 years, or is there a price you would be comfortable with them staying at?

[example1]

I don't suspect Ellsbury. I'm just using him as an example that we could suspect lots of people.

 

As for Ortiz's "return to dominance", he had a monster year against righties in 2010, much better than he did in 2011. In 2010, he in fact had a very strong overall year. In 2011, he made an adjustment to take lefties the other way. I don't think PED's help you do that. His power output stayed at the same, and it went down significantly against righties. I don't think PED's would help you against lefties but hurt your performance against righties. That just doesn't make sense. The fact is that once Ortiz got over his wrist injury, he has remained a big force since June 2009. You can suspect, but I think you are way off base. I posted in this forum in May of 2009 that Ortiz still had bat speed and that his obit was premature. Look at his overall stats from June 2009, not his splits, and you will see that he has been a very consistent offensive force since then. 2011 was not such a big bounce back season. He made adjustments to keep himself from becoming a platoon player, but those adjustments actually hurt his performance against righties.

 

Just out of curiosity, what data are you using to say that he made an adjustment to take lefties the other way? I completely believe you (it's the only way it could work) but I looked for spray chart data or LF/CF/RF splits and couldn't find anything. I would love to see what you're referring to. I assume it would help inform my opinion.

[a700hitter]

Just out of curiosity' date=' what data are you using to say that he made an adjustment to take lefties the other way? I completely believe you (it's the only way it could work) but I looked for spray chart data or LF/CF/RF splits and couldn't find anything. I would love to see what you're referring to. I assume it would help inform my opinion.[/quote']He stated many times during the season that he had been doing poorly against lefties because he had been swinging at bad pitches because he was trying to jerk everything. He said that he was going to be more patient and let the pitch get deeper and take the outside pitch the other way. He credited AGon early on with watching his approach to taking pitches the other way. This was mentioned several times during Sox telecasts during the season and on pre and post game shows. It was pretty obvious that he wasn't helpless against the outside pitch this season because he was looking that way. It might not show up in the spray charts, because often times when a hitter decides to wait longer and trust his hands, he still ends up pulling the ball. He still has very quick hands. It's pretty common with power hitters in slumps. Waiting longer and relying on their hands helps them break out, and they end up still pulling the ball without having to jump out to hook the ball.

[a700hitter]

So you would sign him to a 3 year deal at 12m per year? Would you want them to overpay for him if he required 3 years' date=' or is there a price you would be comfortable with them staying at?[/quote']I never said that. I have been trying to get at the root of your distrust that 2011 is a fluke season. If 2011 was a fluke, why would you want to sign him for even 1 or 2 seasons. He's not going to get 3 years from anyone. He'd probably be very happy with a 1 yr deal with a player option. He's 35 so he could fall off the cliff at anytime, but I am not suspicious of his numbers for any nefarious reasons. Age might get the better of him, but that could happen to anyone age 35.

[example1]

He stated many times during the season that he had been doing poorly against lefties because he had been swinging at bad pitches because he was trying to jerk everything. He said that he was going to be more patient and let the pitch get deeper and take the outside pitch the other way. He credited AGon early on with watching his approach to taking pitches the other way. This was mentioned several times during Sox telecasts during the season and on pre and post game shows. It was pretty obvious that he wasn't helpless against the outside pitch this season because he was looking that way. It might not show up in the spray charts' date=' because often times when a hitter decides to wait longer and trust his hands, he still ends up pulling the ball. He still has very quick hands. It's pretty common with power hitters in slumps. Waiting longer and relying on their hands helps them break out, and they end up still pulling the ball without having to jump out to hook the ball.[/quote']

 

There's no doubt in my mind that this guy is still a fearsome hitter. He's got the patience and remains a role model for other Sox about how to approach an AB.

 

I never said that. I have been trying to get at the root of your distrust that 2011 is a fluke season. If 2011 was a fluke' date=' why would you want to sign him for even 1 or 2 seasons. He's not going to get 3 years from anyone. He'd probably be very happy with a 1 yr deal with a player option. He's 35 so he could fall off the cliff at anytime, but I am not suspicious of his numbers for any nefarious reasons. Age might get the better of him, but that could happen to anyone age 35.[/quote']

 

I think the word fluke is a bit strong, as to me it implies something that won't happen 9 times out of 10. I think his chances of approaching his 2011 numbers are quite a bit higher than 10%.

 

As for age getting the better of him, that's exactly my worry. I would hate to be in this same position next year, adding David Ortiz to our list of Lackey and maybe Crawford and maybe Beckett as guys whose contracts we wish we didn't have to tolerate in 2013. There's a higher risk with him due to his age alone, let alone any of that other s***. It's just risky.

 

If you really think he'd be happy with a 1 year deal and a player option then sign me up.

 

On a related note, my wife and I were flipping through On-Demand tonight and found "Four Nights in October" on the ESPN documentaries section. That 2004 team was something else. Definitely worth re-watching if you haven't seen it for awhile. Just what my soul needed at this point. Ortiz was a real beast.

[example1]

If this post is the first thing you're reading this morning, go read the article cited in the "The Collapse" thread. It explains the collapse in epic detail and is the context of the following post.

 

First of all, I'm pissed off. Talk about wasting resources. This team had the talent to win the World Series. That article clearly reinforced that to me. At the same time, the absolute waste of money in terms of character is alarming.

 

So, what if we think about the off-season this way:

 

Rather than rebuilding the talent of the team--which most off-seasons are focused on--they need to rebuild the character of the team. The talent is there, the leadership isn't. Don't misconstrue the term "leadership" with "ownership" or "management", I mean leadership, as in being a leader, holding high standards for performance, attitude and demeanor. Leading by example. The humble co-worker who shows up early and stays late because it's the right thing to do, not because it leads to a raise or a promotion.

 

 

Until now, I had been thinking about the off-season as an opportunity to get a new manager who somewhat carries on Francona's approach, but with a different person. Now, after the curtain has apparently been lifted, I think they need someone completely different. They don't have a choice: they are stuck with the players they have. Just like 2004 was about getting the most out of that particular group of players (Manny, Ortiz, Nomar, Pedro), 2012 will be about getting the most out of this group of players.

 

MANAGER: For a manager they need someone who won't take s*** from anyone. Earlier, Jim Rice's name was brought up. I'm not sure I would go in that direction, but someone who says basically "this is my clubhouse, do it my way or I'll sit your ass and embarass you in front of your friends and family" is a good starting point. I don't know if they need a good players manager in the sense of someone who aligns with players. A good employee will align himself with management.

 

GENERAL MANAGER: This really is a secondary concern right now. Ben Cherrington can do the job just fine. The manager will be the crucial hire of the off-season. Billy Beane wouldn't take s*** from people and is decisive and innovative. He'd be up there on my list too.

 

CLUBHOUSE ADDITIONS: A stronger coaching staff. Obviously. Don't replace Magadan if possible. The offense wasn't the problem. Otherwise, even good folks like Demarlo Hale will probably have to go. Curt Young too. He might be the best X's and O's pitching coach the team has had, but the timing was apparently poor for his personality.

 

PLAYER ADDITIONS: This whole boondoggle makes me look at the needs of the team differently. They need a particular type of player. They need someone who is secure enough to not have to 'fit in'. The more I think about it, the less I think either a marquee FA or a scrappy prospect could change that culture. It's those middle guys who have grown up having to fight and scrap to get appreciation in this game who might be most useful.

 

Interesting options (including some marquee guys, obviously):

 

* Heath Bell: Outspoken, aggressive, experienced. Papelbon may leave anyway, but even if he doesn't making the bullpen the 'heartbeat of the team' might not hurt.

 

* CC Sabathia (very unlikely, too expensive, etc.,): Larger than life, mature, seems very focused on his own and his team's success above all else. Experienced.

 

* Roy Oswalt: This guy is a veteran and a gamer. His age is on the downward trajectory, as is his stuff, but I get the sense that he's a quite leader and someone that Lackey, Lester and Beckett would have to respect. Might not cost too much.

 

* Michael Cuddyer: Scrappy guy, has good seasons and decent seasons. A bit of a dirt-dog. Won't take s*** for granted.

 

* Josh Willingham: RH OF, don't know enough about his personality, but he's a veteran who won't cost a ton and might bring some clubhouse presence.

 

* CJ WIlson--Obviously the biggest name (aside from CC) on the pitching side of FA this year. Supposed to have a good work ethic and doesn't seem to take things for granted. Not sure if adding another marque guy is ideal, but worth investigating.

 

 

Who are other players that the team might target--through trade--to improve the chemistry of this club?

 

* Shin Soo-Choo: Don't know much about him in the clubhouse, but he's another grinder and a RF who is coming off a down year but is very young. I have read he comes with a very strong work ethic and should be entering his prime. High cost, but the Guardians did quite well without him for much of the year this year. Enough prospects and the Guardians are often game to talk (especially after dumping so many for Ubaldo).

 

* Matt Cain: he's been mentioned a bunch here. I still think he could be a really good solidifying force and is young enough to have value for a long time.

 

* Matt Garza: If Theo's going to Chicago and they're not moving Castro, try to work out something for Garza. Sadly, Theo won't be a great trading partner moving forwad...

 

* Johan Santana: Any chance of a salary trade and one last shot at a healthy Santana? Seems like he would be a guy who wouldnt' automatically clique with the other douchebags, and who might actually set a good example.

 

 

 

Sorry for the rambling post. I'm just convinced that this is more a lesson in setting the right clubhouse culture than it is about jettisoning players who are still owed lots of money. They need the right manager and coaches first, and then they need the right combination of players to set a really high standard for day-to-day behaviors. The players that come in with that role need to know that's their role from the beginning and get plenty of leeway from management to make it happen. Varitek was essentially ineffective at doing that this year apparently.

[Emmz]

Great post, I like the idea of trying to get Garza out of the Theo deal. That would give the Sox, IMO, a very formidable front four, though Beckett seems to be very inconsistent in the annual sense (not the game after game sense like AJ Burnett used to be famous for). Otherwise they should give CJ Wilson a good look, but don't overpay.

 

I'm just concerned with adding one good SP, our offense is going to be elite, though I'd like to see how the Ortiz situation is handled. If they let him walk they really need to add a big bat to replace him. I'm not very comfortable with letting the big slugger in the middle of the order going unreplaced.

 

If Lackey has to be the 5th starter, then I'd look to replace him with anyone else, but I could still see him rebounding to last year's form. I just am not counting on it.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Nice post E1. I mentioned earlier we should pick up Bell only if Papelbon walks. Leave Bard as setup. I'd like to acquire CJ Wilson if possible. We won't get CC. A couple of good names reached out though. I'd be interested in Garza or Cain.

 

 

With Drew's contract expiring, we need a RF. Unless of course, people believe Kalish is the real deal and can handle RF then there is no need to get anyone. We could even throw Reddick out there from time to time. I'd love to see Shin Soo-Choo in RF though unless the Guardians want too much.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

I've been thinking, Curt Schilling should get interviewed for manager. He wouldn't take none of this s*** going on. He'd command respect. And when he was a player he knew everything about the entire league. I never saw anyone more prepared. It even seems like after he left the team went downhill sort of, like he had some sort of influence over Tito. And he was obviously a clubhouse leader in his time here.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

And I like the Heath Bell idea. Seems like he'd be a good leader. Papelbon is a headcase, let him go.

 

Ban alcohol in the clubhouse also. Set up rules about the players needing to be in good condition. If they slack, fine them. In that article it said something like "It's hard to have a trainer making 80,000 to force a pitcher making 15 million to stay in shape". Well then the front office should back those trainers. John Lackey or Beckett want to bitch about something like that? Bench them, make them miss a start. Embarrass them. I don't give a damn if they are millionaires and want to get all disgruntled, in the end they are EMPLOYEES and should be treated as such.

[SoxSport]

I read no major league players are involved in the Epstein deal.

 

I suspect they want Epstein out, and aren't going to make it that difficult for the Cubs to get him.

 

Obviously, some sort of compensation is warranted--probably a minor league player or two.

 

It's amazing that just when Epstein was in Chicago last Fri and Sat, under the radar, I'm posting I think he's already in Chicago negotiating under the table. The Sox handled that very well--keeping the media out of it. Though I suspect the media has known a lot about the Sox they weren't telling for quite awhile.

[Palodios]

And I like the Heath Bell idea. Seems like he'd be a good leader. Papelbon is a headcase, let him go.

 

Ban alcohol in the clubhouse also. Set up rules about the players needing to be in good condition. If they slack, fine them. In that article it said something like "It's hard to have a trainer making 80,000 to force a pitcher making 15 million to stay in shape". Well then the front office should back those trainers. John Lackey or Beckett want to bitch about something like that? Bench them, make them miss a start. Embarrass them. I don't give a damn if they are millionaires and want to get all disgruntled, in the end they are EMPLOYEES and should be treated as such.

 

I absolutely agree with this. If they want to act like children, treat them as such. If they misbehave, let the media know. Let them make Boston their own enemies, and see how they enjoy living the life of luxury when they can't walk around their own town in safety.

[Bullyp31]

I have read in numerous places that Youk is causing problems in the clubhouse. Anybody else think it wouldn't be a bad idea to get rid of Youk and Ortiz to make salary room for somebody like Prince Fielder, a player that could come in and change the tone of the clubhouse?

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I don't see both Ortiz and Youk leaving. If anything Ortiz goes. I like Prince Fielder but I don't think we land him. Plus the asking price will be pretty high. Not going to pay a lot just to DH. Unless you had switching A-Gon and Fielder at 1B/DH which I absolutely do not see.

[FredLynn]

And I like the Heath Bell idea. Seems like he'd be a good leader. Papelbon is a headcase, let him go.

 

Ban alcohol in the clubhouse also. Set up rules about the players needing to be in good condition. If they slack, fine them. In that article it said something like "It's hard to have a trainer making 80,000 to force a pitcher making 15 million to stay in shape". Well then the front office should back those trainers. John Lackey or Beckett want to bitch about something like that? Bench them, make them miss a start. Embarrass them. I don't give a damn if they are millionaires and want to get all disgruntled, in the end they are EMPLOYEES and should be treated as such.

 

Is that legal according to the collective bargaining agreement (the fines)? If so, its a great idea.

The players need not respect anyone but the GM. Its the GM that can trade them to Kansas City or Pittsburgh. I am not saying that they should not respect each other, the manager etc, but its the GM that can hurt them. We need a strong GM not afraid to lay down the law.

[jacksonianmarch]

You guys think you are getting Garza for your f***ing GM? LOLOLOLOL!!!!

[VA Sox Fan]

You guys think you are getting Garza for your f***ing GM? LOLOLOLOL!!!!

 

Who? Sounds like it will Cherington.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

You guys think you are getting Garza for your f***ing GM? LOLOLOLOL!!!!

 

Great post.

[jacksonianmarch]

Who? Sounds like it will Cherington.

 

They are talking about getting Matt Garza as compensation for Theo signing in Chicago. BWAHAHAHA. That is hilarious.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Who? Sounds like it will Cherington.

 

he's talking about matt garza, the SP from the Cubs, in return for Theo.

 

he's just acting like a 12 year old, so it's hard to understand what he's saying.

[Palodios]

Who? Sounds like it will Cherington.

 

 

 

Edit: Oh, I thought you were making fun of Jacko. He was talking about Matt Garza, the pitcher.

[jacksonianmarch]

he's talking about matt garza, the SP from the Cubs, in return for Theo.

 

he's just acting like a 12 year old, so it's hard to understand what he's saying.

 

I'm sorry, I am just laughing too hard to type appropriately. Why don't they throw in Castro and the corpse of Hee Seop Choi while they are at it

[VA Sox Fan]

I'm sorry' date=' I am just laughing too hard to type appropriately. Why don't they throw in Castro and the corpse of Hee Seop Choi while they are at it[/quote']

 

[VA Sox Fan]

I'm sorry' date=' I am just laughing too hard to type appropriately. Why don't they throw in Castro and the corpse of Hee Seop Choi while they are at it[/quote']

 

You never type appropriately.

[jacksonianmarch]

Maybe Theo will do an about face and go to LA. You can get Matt.....Kemp....BWAHAHAHAHA

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm sorry' date=' I am just laughing too hard to type appropriately. Why don't they throw in Castro and the corpse of Hee Seop Choi while they are at it[/quote']

 

The entire premise of getting Garza back included sending prospects with Theo.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA ROFLMAO OMG so fun-e!!!!

[jacksonianmarch]

The entire premise of getting Garza back included sending prospects with Theo.

 

so you'd make a trade for Garza that would be separate from the Theo signing. The Globe is reporting it will be monetary compensation for Theo, so there goes that idea. Also, which prospects are you gonna send? The cupboard is pretty bare, especially for a guy who commanded a s*** ton to get

[VA Sox Fan]

so you'd make a trade for Garza that would be separate from the Theo signing. The Globe is reporting it will be monetary compensation for Theo' date=' so there goes that idea. Also, which prospects are you gonna send? The cupboard is pretty bare, especially for a guy who commanded a s*** ton to get[/quote']

 

Fk Garza. I wouldn't want his ass.

 

Chill out jacko...damn.

[FredLynn]

Fk Garza. I wouldn't want his ass.

 

Chill out jacko...damn.

 

Garza has a career ERA of 3.83; Beckett has a career ERA of 3.84. He is in the same category as Beckett performance-wise. If we could get him and add him to the SR along with Beckett, Lester, and CB we would have a good top four.