2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[The Village Idiot]

There are so many things swirling around in my brain right now, I barely know where to begin.

 

But I think the only way for Theo to begin to dissect this is to recognize that when you pick it apart, what we had here this fall was just a snowball effect of failure. That's what it was. It's actually not even that complicated. Here's what shook down:

 

(1) Our starting pitching literally collapses, via serious enough injury in a couple of cases, and via other guys just not stepping up and executing pitches. Matsuzaka, Buchholz, Lackey, Wakefield and Weiland. Ladies and gentlemen, that is 5/7 of the rotation at the start of the season. 5/7. That were hurt and/or simply failed to perform. At the same time, Beckett suffered his temporary injury. At the same time, Lester suffered one of his classic months, where he can't locate and get out of innings, but rather than that hitting in April--it hit in September. What you have when that there happens, folks, is a team that can't count on its core starting rotation. I don't know if the pitching coach is to blame or not for this. He may be. He may not be to blame. Who knows? But the core pitching s***ing the bed then contributes to the next downfall on a baseball team...

 

(2) Aspects of the bullpen getting gassed/tired/worn out/injured, thereby impacting their effectiveness down the stretch. Bard, Albers, Atchison, to name the biggest offenders. When you take #1 and #2 combined, then you have the next situation...

 

(3) Not all, but many of the position players playing tight. Pressing at the plate. Making key errors in the field. Also, when the pitching collapses, a team is more prone to committing errors. Things are getting hit all over the field. The ball's getting hit harder. You press more. You make more mistakes. More mental miscues. If you're a rookie and/or a newcomer to the team/Fenway Park, that increases your likelihood of making mistakes all the more.

 

What else happens? You lose two veteran producers/leaders to injury: Drew and Youkilis. Youk doesn't make mental errors in the field. Not many of them. Drew almost never does. Huge gap there. Absolutely massive.

 

Again, snowball effect. Then you have the next situation...

 

(4) In a clubhouse where there aren't a LOT of loose players, where there is enough players who carry themselves more introspectively, more seriously, more (dare I say it) religious in a preachy and public way (Adrian) than past teams, then perhaps a core group of players fail to step forth as leaders? Perhaps they stop having fun (unless they're Ellsbury having the season of his life)? We are not in the clubhouse. So we will never know. But I have personally heard reports from cameramen and heard things mentioned in other places that this Sox team was the most sour group of complainers/whiners ever. That has to count for something. And I can't help but wonder and hate if this culture of complaining about s***** umpiring, which I swear has grown in the past 5 years of watching the Sox, isn't a reflection of the team not having the right attitude? Who knows.

 

(5) Final points: The newcomers and their inability to come through in the clutch. Where was Carl Crawford this season? Where was Adrian Gonzalez? I think Theo thought he was getting two leaders in these guys. Two people who would put a team on their backs and carry them, in the same way that that's what Theo got when he acquired Ortiz and Millar and Schilling during his tenure. But it's not working out that way. Crawford looks like a defeated man. Gonzalez blames "God's plans" for a baseball team's inability to play quality ball down the stretch. Something is really, really wrong with that. I don't have the answer, but do the men on Yawkey Way have the balls and emotional sensitivities to address it and solve the problem(s)? I don't know.

 

Finally, the only bright spot about this week was the following, at least for me: Ryan Lavarnway. He struck out in a huge spot in the 9th inning last night, sure. But his 2 homeruns the other night were things of legend. And he said all the right things to the media and seemed to really take care of his pitchers the last couple of nights. If that's the future of the Boston Red Sox, I'm staying signed up. Because that's a team I want to root for.

 

But the team we saw choke in the clutch this past month? Not so much. Here are the players that I know are really, really talented, but who make me squirm and quake as soon as I want to trust them but find myself doubting myself as a fan:

 

Crawford

Reddick

Gonzalez

Saltalamacchia

Lowrie

Lackey

Papelbon

Bard

Tim Bogar

Curt Young

 

I trust everyone else. Including Theo and Tito. But I don't trust these guys.

 

Fix it, Theo. Find a way to fix it all.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

(5) Final points: Where was Adrian Gonzalez?

 

He was hitting .338BA, .407OBP, .549SLG...211 hits, 45 doubles, 3 triples, 27 HRs, 70 BB, and 117 RBI.

 

You can say a lot about Gonzalez, but I don't think you can ask where was he. He had the bat taken out of his hands last night 3 times with IBBs.

 

I agree with most of your assessment, but I think Gonzalez performed all year.

[NativeBostonian]

Fielders

Right Field: Nick Swisher/Josh Reddick (If Nick Swisher is too much money)

Center Field: Jacoby Ellsbury

Left Field: Carl Crawford

First Base: Adrian Gonzalez

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia

Shortstop: Marco Scutaro

Third Base: Kevin Youkilis/Avilies (Avilies if we lose David to free agency)

Catcher: Ryan Lavarnway/Jarrod Saltalamacchia

DH: David Ortiz (Kevin Youkilis can also be a DH, if David Ortiz is demanding way too much money. But, it would be bad to lose Youkilis's fielding skills)

 

Starting Pitchers

Lester

Beckett

Bucholz

Aceves

Lackey

[jacksonianmarch]

Nick Swisher has a no brainer option that the Yankees will accept for next season.

[NativeBostonian]

Nick Swisher has a no brainer option that the Yankees will accept for next season.

 

Crap, the Yankees has an option for Nick Swisher?!? The site that I was looking at let me down. It didn't indicate that. How about the Red Sox get Lance Berkman or Carlos Beltran? Although, those are not my number one options. But, it's better then putting a kid out there, in Josh Reddick, who hasn't been consistently good.

[jung]

Posted my current thoughts on management in that thread.

 

My initial take on players:

Crawford stays hopefully given the help he needs to turn his Sox career around

Yuk stays and becomes the Sox initial effort to transition to the more contemporary usage of the DH while playing some 3B.

 

Players staying..... Ells, Pedey, Scoots, Lavarnway, Salty, Crawford, Avilas, Yuk, AGons

Players going.....Drew, Tek, Ortiz, Lowrie

Pitchers staying.....Buckholtz, Lester, Beckett, Bard, Paps, Aceves, Wheeler, Dice, Morales

Pitchers going.....Wake, Lackey, Bedard and a cast of thousands

 

I am not even trying to cover every player and every position or even all 25 or 40 roster spots.

 

Both big everyday player signings this year have been guys from small market teams being paid the big bucks up to the big team for the first time. Again as I said my issues with Theo are his dependence on his computerized, numbers based process for player evaluation at the expense or scouting.

 

Crawford played well in anonymity in Tampa and AGons did the same in SD. Crawford was a totally dis-spirited player this year and that compounded the performance issues he has as a player.

 

AGons, considered the better of the two signings was also a problem in my eyes. His conditioning is obviously a problem as his play declined appreciably as the season wore on and his play in the clutch left much to be desired. He brought no veteran leadership. I pointed to the "God did not intend us to move forward" comment from last night because it was comical. He went on to say when asked about the collapse 'injuries,,,,,, teams do not get to the playoffs because of injuries, plain and simple". Another thoughtless comment that displaces the responsibility and is in error to boot. That was not the worst of it. I dismissed this comment from a week ago because it was so ridiculous but AGons commented that this was his toughest season physically because of the schedule. The Sox play too many Sunday night TV games with travel on Monday for AGons liking. "Why does it have to be that way" comments AGons. "They can put the Padres on Sunday night TV". I appreciate your honesty AGons but you just told me why we should not have signed you and why you should not be here.

 

AGons you tool, you wanted the money. You wanted to come to the big stage to play. This is how the game is played on the big stage! It is no different for the other big teams that play on the big stage and least we forget, Texas plays all of its games at night because of the heat. Why are the Sox on instead of the Padres? For the same reason they can pay you AGons. They are a draw and the Padres are not. I am telling you that AGons is going to be the second coming of JD Drew before he is done here unless we are smart enough to get him out of town or I have another possible solution. So I am for keeping Crawford but either getting rid of AGons or doing something to compliment him. I want to get rid of Lackey regardless of what it takes including eating his contract money.

 

I know I am really sticking my neck out here but I keep Crawford if I have my GM hat on, I am getting him the help he needs and I am betting that he will ultimately become a solid and exciting player for this team. I am either getting rid of AGons because he looks to me like the next coming of JD Drew without the sense to keep his mouth shut or I am getting another guy to play some 1st base so I can rest AGons more. My primary concern is that at this stage in his career, I don't think he can resolve the obvious conditioning issues and over time his play will continue to decline. He certainly did not look like a chiseled player to me when he came here. So frankly I think he is kinda soft. His play in crunch time is not going to get better and I think even his raw numbers will decline unless he plays fewer games. So the options are we bring in somebody to also play some 1st base so AGons can get much more rest or I would trade AGons while his trade value is high as his numbers are good enough for teams to want him. So today I would opt to bring in a guy to share the 1st base duties. Now between Yuk, AGons, the guy also playing 1st with AGons you have the means to release Ortiz along with the burden of being too reliant on Ortiz when you cannot use the DH and the Red Sox finally adopt a contemporary perspective on the DH.

 

Wake is done and I am very disappointed in his comment that the fans deserve to see him come back next year to break another record. After years of being there for the Sox and playing unselfish baseball he goes out on a very selfish note. Yes folks we have yet another poster child for the mess that the Sox have become. Wake has not been this kind of player. However he looks around him, sees Lackeys and Drews and every Tom Dick and Harry that looks like he might put a fanny in a seat getting big money and he decides, "what the hell, where is mine. This team's management has its head up its ass anyway". We are now the type of team that turns good guys into *******s.

 

Lackey simply has lost it as a pitcher and unless there is some injury that nobody knows about that has contributed to his demise, I think he is just done as a big time pitcher and he has really put himself in a bad spot here in Boston. He is yet another guy that seemed way out of shape. He was distracted by a number of issues and I don't think his focus would have been much better even if there were no personal issues to deal with. So I think he has to go regardless of having to eat his contract.

 

Tek is gone as he is too old. We got a last gasp out of him this year but he has been part of this cushy clubhouse issue, has not been the kind of captain this team needs and I don't see us keeping 3 catchers.

 

I have not really gotten into the complexity of the Sox bullpen. I can't parse it player by player. The bullpen needs to be reconstructed. Somebody smarter than me needs to figure it out. Also, we might not need more than one more good starter and then somebody to be a number 5 starter. We will need some innings as we are going to lose Wake and Lackey innings if they are both gone. If we get Dice back then we have Lester, Beckett, Buckholtz, Dice and maybe Bard starting. Or we package up some of these guys that we have the rights to but that are going to get another starting pitcher.

 

Maybe Lowrie stays since he can play a good many positions in the infield. But he probably makes too much money. We need starting pitching. We need to fix a number of these guys and we need to fix our overworked bullpen. They have not been a bad bullpen at least not to me. They just got overworked.

 

I might change much of this but one day after the season ends trying to look at it today, shooting from the hip, this is what I think. I apologize if there are huge illogical holes in this post.

 

Was listening to the Theo, Tito press conference and boy, I am getting the feeling that Tito is not only done but that he does not want to be here. I did my management thing in the management thread but I am really thinking that Tito does not want to be here whether we want him to be here or not. Theo absolutely said that he thinks their process of evaluating the big ticket free agent market has been a problem. While I have pointed to it as a problem, I think it is really interesting for Theo to admit it because you cannot then escape the conclusion that the result, the players that have been brought here, probably in some cases should not have been brought here.

[BossSox]

Posted my current thoughts on management in that thread.

 

My initial take on players:

Crawford stays hopefully given the help he needs to turn his Sox career around

Yuk stays and becomes the Sox initial effort to transition to the more contemporary usage of the DH while playing some 3B.

 

Players staying..... Ells, Pedey, Scoots, Lavarnway, Salty, Crawford, Avilas, Yuk, AGons

Players going.....Drew, Tek, Ortiz, Lowrie

Pitchers staying.....Buckholtz, Lester, Beckett, Bard, Paps, Aceves, Wheeler, Dice, Morales

Pitchers going.....Wake, Lackey, Bedard and a cast of thousands

 

I am not even trying to cover every player and every position or even all 25 or 40 roster spots.

 

Both big everyday player signings this year have been guys from small market teams being paid the big bucks up to the big team for the first time. Again as I said my issues with Theo are his dependence on his computerized, numbers based process for player evaluation at the expense or scouting.

 

Crawford played well in anonymity in Tampa and AGons did the same in SD. Crawford was a totally dis-spirited player this year and that compounded the performance issues he has as a player.

 

AGons, considered the better of the two signings was also a problem in my eyes. His conditioning is obviously a problem as his play declined appreciably as the season wore on and his play in the clutch left much to be desired. He brought no veteran leadership. I pointed to the "God did not intend us to move forward" comment from last night because it was comical. He went on to say when asked about the collapse 'injuries,,,,,, teams do not get to the playoffs because of injuries, plain and simple". Another thoughtless comment that displaces the responsibility and is in error to boot. That was not the worst of it. I dismissed this comment from a week ago because it was so ridiculous but AGons commented that this was his toughest season physically because of the schedule. The Sox play too many Sunday night TV games with travel on Monday for AGons liking. "Why does it have to be that way" comments AGons. "They can put the Padres on Sunday night TV". I appreciate your honesty AGons but you just told me why we should not have signed you and why you should not be here.

 

AGons you tool, you wanted the money. You wanted to come to the big stage to play. This is how the game is played on the big stage! It is no different for the other big teams that play on the big stage and least we forget, Texas plays all of its games at night because of the heat. Why are the Sox on instead of the Padres? For the same reason they can pay you AGons. They are a draw and the Padres are not. I am telling you that AGons is going to be the second coming of JD Drew before he is done here unless we are smart enough to get him out of town or I have another possible solution. So I am for keeping Crawford but either getting rid of AGons or doing something to compliment him. I want to get rid of Lackey regardless of what it takes including eating his contract money.

 

I know I am really sticking my neck out here but I keep Crawford if I have my GM hat on, I am getting him the help he needs and I am betting that he will ultimately become a solid and exciting player for this team. I am either getting rid of AGons because he looks to me like the next coming of JD Drew without the sense to keep his mouth shut or I am getting another guy to play some 1st base so I can rest AGons more. My primary concern is that at this stage in his career, I don't think he can resolve the obvious conditioning issues and over time his play will continue to decline. He certainly did not look like a chiseled player to me when he came here. So frankly I think he is kinda soft. His play in crunch time is not going to get better and I think even his raw numbers will decline unless he plays fewer games. So the options are we bring in somebody to also play some 1st base so AGons can get much more rest or I would trade AGons while his trade value is high as his numbers are good enough for teams to want him. So today I would opt to bring in a guy to share the 1st base duties. Now between Yuk, AGons, the guy also playing 1st with AGons you have the means to release Ortiz along with the burden of being too reliant on Ortiz when you cannot use the DH and the Red Sox finally adopt a contemporary perspective on the DH.

 

Wake is done and I am very disappointed in his comment that the fans deserve to see him come back next year to break another record. After years of being there for the Sox and playing unselfish baseball he goes out on a very selfish note. Yes folks we have yet another poster child for the mess that the Sox have become. Wake has not been this kind of player. However he looks around him, sees Lackeys and Drews and every Tom Dick and Harry that looks like he might put a fanny in a seat getting big money and he decides, "what the hell, where is mine. This team's management has its head up its ass anyway". We are now the type of team that turns good guys into *******s.

 

Lackey simply has lost it as a pitcher and unless there is some injury that nobody knows about that has contributed to his demise, I think he is just done as a big time pitcher and he has really put himself in a bad spot here in Boston. He is yet another guy that seemed way out of shape. He was distracted by a number of issues and I don't think his focus would have been much better even if there were no personal issues to deal with. So I think he has to go regardless of having to eat his contract.

 

Tek is gone as he is too old. We got a last gasp out of him this year but he has been part of this cushy clubhouse issue, has not been the kind of captain this team needs and I don't see us keeping 3 catchers.

 

I have not really gotten into the complexity of the Sox bullpen. I can't parse it player by player. The bullpen needs to be reconstructed. Somebody smarter than me needs to figure it out. Also, we might not need more than one more good starter and then somebody to be a number 5 starter. We will need some innings as we are going to lose Wake and Lackey innings if they are both gone. If we get Dice back then we have Lester, Beckett, Buckholtz, Dice and maybe Bard starting. Or we package up some of these guys that we have the rights to but that are going to get another starting pitcher.

 

Maybe Lowrie stays since he can play a good many positions in the infield. But he probably makes too much money. We need starting pitching. We need to fix a number of these guys and we need to fix our overworked bullpen. They have not been a bad bullpen at least not to me. They just got overworked.

 

I might change much of this but one day after the season ends trying to look at it today, shooting from the hip, this is what I think. I apologize if there are huge illogical holes in this post.

 

Was listening to the Theo, Tito press conference and boy, I am getting the feeling that Tito is not only done but that he does not want to be here. I did my management thing in the management thread but I am really thinking that Tito does not want to be here whether we want him to be here or not. Theo absolutely said that he thinks their process of evaluating the big ticket free agent market has been a problem. While I have pointed to it as a problem, I think it is really interesting for Theo to admit it because you cannot then escape the conclusion that the result, the players that have been brought here, probably in some cases should not have been brought here.

 

You want us to get rid of Gonzalez? Yikes.

[Interestedobserver]

What about trading Crawford back for Bay plus pay half the out years in the contract? ie, the four years that Crawford is owed money that Bay is not. Both players may need a change of scenery and Bay was good in Boston.

[TedWilliams101]

You want us to get rid of Gonzalez? Yikes.

 

I agree that I'm worried about his attitude. I do realize that he's still going to perform well, but he may not perform anywhere near his ceiling with the attitude he seems to have. I'm more worried about his influence on this team. We need leaders, hard works, people who take responsibility. The fact that AGon hasn't shown any of those attributes this season is Alarming.

[d-money]

I wish there was a way they could get Felix Hernandez through a trade.I think Hernandez's time is up in seattle.

[Interestedobserver]

I can't even begin to imagine what they would want for him.

[NativeBostonian]

What about trading Crawford back for Bay plus pay half the out years in the contract? ie' date=' the four years that Crawford is owed money that Bay is not. Both players may need a change of scenery and Bay was good in Boston.[/quote']

 

You think the Mets will do that? I like that trade right there. I loved J-Bay and I don't know why they let him go. We wouldn't had such a collapse if we had him this month.

[Palodios]

I just wanted to add AtWork's post from the 2012 Financials Thread, since it has all of the luxury cap numbers. Just to be clear, this is mostly his work, but I pretty much threw out all of his arbitration estimates(because they were terrible) and added my own, with comparisons to other players in the same positions at the same or similar arbitration years:

 

 

Let me preface by saying that I calculated every player's salary by their annual average salary over the length of their contract because that is how they are calculated for the purpose of the luxury tax threshold. All figures are in millions and rounded to to the 100th.

 

Players Under Contract

Gonzalez - 20.71

Crawford - 20.29

Beckett - 17

Lackey - 16.5

Youkilis - 10.31

Matsuzaka - 8.67

Buchholz - 7.49

Pedroia - 6.75

Jenks - 6

Lester - 6

Iglesias - 2.06

Scutaro - 1.5 (cost of buyout)

123.02 total.

 

 

Arbitration Eligible Players

Ellsbury - 11 (comparison-- Hamilton)

Bard - 4.00 (comparison-- Papelbon)

Aceves - 3.00 (no comparison)

Saltalamacchia - 1.80(comparison Navarro)

Albers - 1.30 (comparison Chamberlain)

Lowrie - 1.20(so few games played, he doesn't have a very strong case)

Aviles - 1.20

Morales - 0.50

 

 

24 total.

 

That would give us a salary of $147.02 million going into next year. If you round out the rest of the 40-man with players making an average of 0.50 million a year, that would mean our base salary going into 2012 sits at $157.02 million. The luxury tax threshold in 2012 will be $186 million. If you reserve $5 million for contract bonuses, that leaves us with just over $24 million to work with in free agency next year to sign a DH, a starter, a closer, a shortstop, a backup catcher and possibly a right fielder. The arbitration may be a little off, but they're all in the right ballpark.

[NativeBostonian]

I just wanted to add AtWork's post from the 2012 Financials Thread, since it has all of the luxury cap numbers. Just to be clear, this is mostly his work, but I pretty much threw out all of his arbitration estimates(because they were terrible) and added my own, with comparisons to other players in the same positions at the same or similar arbitration years:

 

 

Let me preface by saying that I calculated every player's salary by their annual average salary over the length of their contract because that is how they are calculated for the purpose of the luxury tax threshold. All figures are in millions and rounded to to the 100th.

 

Players Under Contract

Gonzalez - 20.71

Crawford - 20.29

Beckett - 17

Lackey - 16.5

Youkilis - 10.31

Matsuzaka - 8.67

Buchholz - 7.49

Pedroia - 6.75

Jenks - 6

Lester - 6

Iglesias - 2.06

Scutaro - 1.5 (cost of buyout)

123.02 total.

 

 

Arbitration Eligible Players

Ellsbury - 11 (comparison-- Hamilton)

Bard - 4.00 (comparison-- Papelbon)

Aceves - 3.00 (no comparison)

Saltalamacchia - 1.80(comparison Navarro)

Albers - 1.30 (comparison Chamberlain)

Lowrie - 1.20(so few games played, he doesn't have a very strong case)

Aviles - 1.20

Morales - 0.50

 

 

24 total.

 

That would give us a salary of $147.02 million going into next year. If you round out the rest of the 40-man with players making an average of 0.50 million a year, that would mean our base salary going into 2012 sits at $157.02 million. The luxury tax threshold in 2012 will be $186 million. If you reserve $5 million for contract bonuses, that leaves us with just over $24 million to work with in free agency next year to sign a DH, a starter, a closer, a shortstop, a backup catcher and possibly a right fielder. The arbitration may be a little off, but they're all in the right ballpark.

 

Thanks for sharing this. The Red Sox are in a big mess. In order for them to get the guys they need, to get better. They are going to have to succeed the luxury cap and become the team they have always despised, the Yankees.

[Interestedobserver]

You think the Mets will do that? I like that trade right there. I loved J-Bay and I don't know why they let him go. We wouldn't had such a collapse if we had him this month.

 

I don't know, but they're not happy with him and Crawford fits their ballpark. How much cash goes back would be a big sticking point. Bay came on at the end of the year and they're lowering the fences. But Sandy still wants him gone.

[NativeBostonian]

I don't know' date=' but they're not happy with him and Crawford fits their ballpark. How much cash goes back would be a big sticking point. Bay came on at the end of the year and they're lowering the fences. But Sandy still wants him gone.[/quote']

 

The biggest thing here, is even if the Mets wanted to do that trade, they probably couldn't afford it. They, like the Red Sox, are in a big financial hole.

[Meh]

Crap' date=' the Yankees has an option for Nick Swisher?!? The site that I was looking at let me down. It didn't indicate that. How about the Red Sox get Lance Berkman or Carlos Beltran? Although, those are not my number one options. But, it's better then putting a kid out there, in Josh Reddick, who hasn't been consistently good.[/quote']

 

Berkman signed an extenstion to stay in STL. Baltran is going to be seriously overpaid, he's like the only OF who's a f/a. I think actually an Abreu for Igneslis and Doubrant trade might work. He can play RF for you, steal a bases, hit a few homeruns, work the count to wear down pitchers, hit in the 3 hole in front of A-Gon and behind Pedo. Angels get a backup SS to stash away in Triple-A and a guy they can toss out in the bullpen or as a 5th starter if it comes to that. Basically a salary dump type trade for you guys.

[NativeBostonian]

Berkman signed an extenstion to stay in STL. Baltran is going to be seriously overpaid' date=' he's like the only OF who's a f/a. I think actually an Abreu for Igneslis and Doubrant trade might work. He can play RF for you, steal a bases, hit a few homeruns, work the count to wear down pitchers, hit in the 3 hole in front of A-Gon and behind Pedo. Angels get a backup SS to stash away in Triple-A and a guy they can toss out in the bullpen or as a 5th starter if it comes to that. Basically a salary dump type trade for you guys.[/quote']

 

The Red Sox are really in a pickle then. They are going to have to trade for someone then. They can't have Reddick, although good at times, be a full time starter just yet. Resigning J.D Drew doesn't seem like a good signing either. How about a combo of Reddick and Xavier Nady? split the time in right field. Like they did at the catching position this year.

[Interestedobserver]

Of course they could afford it. I think Bay and Crawford make about the same for the next two years, so payroll wouldn't change. After that, it's a question of how much cash the Red Sox would have to kick in.

[MannybeinManny]

Am i the only the that can see the Sox's going all out on CJ Wilson??

[Spitball]

Am i the only the that can see the Sox's going all out on CJ Wilson??

 

No, several of us have brought him up a few times. He would be my number one target for sure, but he will command a big, big, long term contract. And, Lackey makes a big, long term contract to a pitcher seem pretty scary.

 

Also, the Yankees and Rangers will be big players for his services, not to mention reports of the Nationals. He could end up getting $100 million 6 or 7 year contract.

 

C.J. Wilson should be the top priority, but it seems likely he will end up in New York (top dollar) or Texas (hometown discount).

[jung]

No I don't want us to get rid of AGons at this point. I took the second option I was talking about in my post and left AGons on my team. I think we will want to bring in somebody that can play some 1st base because I don't think AGons conditioning is going to improve by much and he clearly declined in the second half. He even offered that lame comment about the schedule as an excuse for his decline. So if they get a guy to play some 1st base they can rest AGons more, and between Yuk when he is not playing 3rd, AGons on some of the days when he is not in the field, the Sox finally transition to the contemporary DH and they are no longer held hostage by the mess they are in when Ortiz has been unavailable for games when the DH is not allowed.

[jacksonianmarch]

No, several of us have brought him up a few times. He would be my number one target for sure, but he will command a big, big, long term contract. And, Lackey makes a big, long term contract to a pitcher seem pretty scary.

 

Also, the Yankees and Rangers will be big players for his services, not to mention reports of the Nationals. He could end up getting $100 million 6 or 7 year contract.

 

C.J. Wilson should be the top priority, but it seems likely he will end up in New York (top dollar) or Texas (hometown discount).

 

Spitball, I think you are spot on. First of all, the biggest FA pitcher will be CC for about .02 seconds before he re-ups in NY for an extra 3 yrs or so. Secondly, the Yankees will have a need for another reliable pitcher so they can jettison AJ and replace him with someone more reliable. I am fairly certain that AJ will be dealt in the off-season. Third, lefties in NY seem to have better chances than righties simply because of the park. And fourth, the Yanks have the most money and will throw a major contract his way

[NativeBostonian]

Am i the only the that can see the Sox's going all out on CJ Wilson??

 

No, I would really like him. But, it is not likely the Red Sox have to the money to go get him. Trust me, he is going to be demanding money. Unless the Red Sox decide that they are going to drastically up their payroll. That's not likely they are going to do that too, considering the last big long term contracts they gave stare pitchers, ended up being a huge mistake. That's why I think they are going to stick with a pitcher that they know can pitch well in a Red Sox uniform and turn him into a starter. I'm talking about Aceves being that pitcher.

[jung]

Boy Wilson would be great but he is going to get huge money. All the big money teams will be in the hunt for him. Add there is one other indirect result that might hit us right in mouth here.

 

Lackey has underperformed as a free agent here, as has Crawford and Drew and even AGons has looked flaky in the second half and has sounded like he is getting palm readings regularly. While I have never believed that this was that tough a town to play in, if the money being offered is the same or better elsewhere I don't wonder if guys will start to avoid Boston because they believe it is too tough a town to play in. If Tito is let go or goes on his own, and the Sox get a more hard nosed manager will players avoid Boston?

 

I would love to have Wilson here but I just don't think it will happen especially after this press conference. Clearly the Sox are publicly stating that they think their free agent process needs serious review.

[jacksonianmarch]

I also think the sox will get very creative this upcoming offseason. They are going to try and become a lot more flexible on offense especially. Ortiz jams them up and doesnt let guys have a half game off, which could really be useful in recharging batteries of the old guys. I also think they will move off the big market FAs and either go internal in RF (Reddick or Kalish) or sign/make a deal for a guy who plays good D and is undervalued (like Willingham). I also think the sox will try and either get Aviles some more PT or get another undervalued corner IFer who can play defense first and also have some upside offensively. Maybe a Wilson Betemit or a Casey Blake. Blake is highly undervalued since he is coming off injury. If he's healthy, he could be the kind of part timer you would want to spell Youk significantly.

 

That would leave the sox with a lineup of...

 

C- Salty/Lavarnway

1B- AdGon

2B- Pedroia

3B- Youkilis/Blake

SS- Scutaro

LF- Crawford

CF- Ellsbury

RF- Willingham

DH- Lavarnway/Youkilis

 

The offense will slip a little, but the team becomes way more flexible and might avoid the injury bug later in the yr if you could actually rest a bunch of guys regularly.

 

On the mound, I think the sox resign Papelbon, keep Bard as is and move Aceves into the rotation. I think they make a move for a SP nobody thinks of, maybe a Gavin Floyd to take the 4th starter role. Floyd guts the sox of the rest of their up and comers, but gives the sox an innings eater behind the sox top 3. I think Lackey and Aceves are in a dogfight for the #5 spot and I think eventually, Lackey gets relegated to pen work.

[Spitball]

I think the Red Sox are too into defensive metrics to consider Casey Blake or Willingham.

[example1]

I also think the sox will get very creative this upcoming offseason. They are going to try and become a lot more flexible on offense especially. Ortiz jams them up and doesnt let guys have a half game off, which could really be useful in recharging batteries of the old guys. I also think they will move off the big market FAs and either go internal in RF (Reddick or Kalish) or sign/make a deal for a guy who plays good D and is undervalued (like Willingham). I also think the sox will try and either get Aviles some more PT or get another undervalued corner IFer who can play defense first and also have some upside offensively. Maybe a Wilson Betemit or a Casey Blake. Blake is highly undervalued since he is coming off injury. If he's healthy, he could be the kind of part timer you would want to spell Youk significantly.

 

That would leave the sox with a lineup of...

 

C- Salty/Lavarnway

1B- AdGon

2B- Pedroia

3B- Youkilis/Blake

SS- Scutaro

LF- Crawford

CF- Ellsbury

RF- Willingham

DH- Lavarnway/Youkilis

 

The offense will slip a little, but the team becomes way more flexible and might avoid the injury bug later in the yr if you could actually rest a bunch of guys regularly.

 

On the mound, I think the sox resign Papelbon, keep Bard as is and move Aceves into the rotation. I think they make a move for a SP nobody thinks of, maybe a Gavin Floyd to take the 4th starter role. Floyd guts the sox of the rest of their up and comers, but gives the sox an innings eater behind the sox top 3. I think Lackey and Aceves are in a dogfight for the #5 spot and I think eventually, Lackey gets relegated to pen work.

 

I've been agreeing with you a lot recently. Scary.

 

I will give my hopes for the team sometime in the next few weeks, but needless to say I'm open to a LOT of different options.

 

I agree with you about Ortiz. I think there's a good chance that he's gone only because he would really open the lineup up. It is a HUGE risk to not resign him, but is one of the most significat crossroads the team faces.

 

They might want to look at moving Youkilis. He's affordable for the rest of his contract, and would be a really valuable established offensive piece for a team that needs that. A Seattle, San Francisco, Milwaukee or maybe another team could benefit from him and he could bring a good return.

 

Look at a guy like Buehrle for the #5 spot, and have Aceves in case #4 Lackey doesn't work out. Obviously move Lackey if any opportunity presents itself.

 

No more Darnell McDonald. He's not a good enough backup OF. Kalish and Reddick should both get a shot to take the RF job. Look for a legitimate backup OF.

 

Overall, this team needs some subtle but important character guys and needs to think about the culture of the clubhouse. More athleticism, a higher expectation for conditioning, more versatility. I would think about bringing up a young guy or two who can allow Gonzalez, Pedroia and Ellsbury to take a leadership role. It's nice to have a team full of veterans, but there's a lot of urgency to be gained with young guys trying to prove themselves. I would think seriously about letting Iglesias, Lavarnway, Kalish and Doubront compete for importannt spots on the roster.

 

Lots of other thoughts too... Just too many directions to go right now.

[example1]

Is there any scenario whereby the Sox are players for either Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols?

 

Would there be any way that, by moving Youkilis and releasing Ortiz, they would be players for one of them?

 

It isn't entirely far-fetched (though I acknowledge it is unlikely).

 

PROS:

* Obvious pros. Imagine the lineup.

 

CONS:

* Less positional flexability

* Less financial flexability

* Another longterm, potentially hindering deal.

 

Just wondering... it's early in the offseason.

[NativeBostonian]

Is there any scenario whereby the Sox are players for either Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols?

 

Would there be any way that, by moving Youkilis and releasing Ortiz, they would be players for one of them?

 

It isn't entirely far-fetched (though I acknowledge it is unlikely).

 

PROS:

* Obvious pros. Imagine the lineup.

 

CONS:

* Less positional flexability

* Less financial flexability

* Another longterm, potentially hindering deal.

 

Just wondering... it's early in the offseason.

 

I don't think that would fix anything. In my opinion, the Red Sox have too many star players on that team. Having too many star players, is never a good thing. No matter how silly that may sound.They all want to be "the guy". When the truth of the matter is, not everyone, on a ball team, can be "that guy". Every sport needs it's role players, with a few stars sprinkled in here or there. We have been so caught up with "Keeping up with the Joneses" (Yankees), that we forgot what won the two rings we have, team work. We transitioned from a bunch a village idiots, to the evil empire two.