2011 Playoffs for granted?

[SoxFanForsyth]

A Rays sweep of the Sox this weekend is highly unlikely. The O's have taken the heat off the Sox big time by beating the Rays the last 2 days.

 

I think they will split.

 

Exactly. I think the Sox will split, or take 3/4. All I want, though, is a split. We split with TB, then we're up 4 with 10 to play. If the Rays go 4-3 vs NYY, and 2-1 vs TOR, the Sox would have to go 2-8 to finish the season against BAL and NYY.

[a700hitter]

Show me where I said Morrow would pitch well? Morrow has been bad this year ... so there was good reason to expect him to be bad against the Red Sox. Romero has been good this year ... so there was good reason to expect him to be good against the Red Sox (and he threw a decent game). If you interpreted my argument as me saying that Morrow would pitch a good game than you interpreted it incorrectly. Literally my only argument the entire time was that his entire body of work is a better predictor than his numbers in a small sampling vs a single team.

Some posters tend to take the analysis by another poster and apply it to a different set of facts in another situation then conclude that the analsis is faulty, because the conclusions in that analysis didn't hold true in that other situation. It's a faulty way to argue and it proves nothing.

 

I agree with you about Romero. He has been very good this season. The fact that the Sox have had success against him in past years doesn't translate to a higher probability of success this season. From year to year, the Red Sox line up has changed significantly, so it doesn't translate from year to year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Some posters tend to take the analysis by another poster and apply it to a different set of facts in another situation then conclude that the analsis is faulty, because the conclusions in that analysis didn't hold true in that other situation. It's a faulty way to argue and it proves nothing.

 

I agree with you about Romero. He has been very good this season. The fact that the Sox have had success against him in past years doesn't translate to a higher probability of success this season. From year to year, the Red Sox line up has changed significantly, so it doesn't translate from year to year.

 

The numbers I used were from 2011 specifically for that purpose. But either way, I thought Yankee228 was talking about Morrow, because it looked like he was responding to my comment that we had a significant advantage in the Wake vs Morrow game. I said that Wake vs TOR had a 5.XX ERA, whereas Morrow had a 13.XX ERA vs BOS, so that gave us a big advantage. It looked like he was arguing against that.

[a700hitter]

The numbers I used were from 2011 specifically for that purpose. But either way' date=' I thought Yankee228 was talking about Morrow, because it looked like he was responding to my comment that we had a significant advantage in the Wake vs Morrow game. I said that Wake vs TOR had a 5.XX ERA, whereas Morrow had a 13.XX ERA vs BOS, so that gave us a big advantage. It looked like he was arguing against that.[/quote']Even within the 2011 season our lineup has changed. Yesterday's lineup with a very banged up Youkilis and no David Ortiz is very different from the lineup earlier in the year. It's very difficult to make an argument that a team has a pitcher's number even within a season.

[SoxSport]

Youks seems to be having a rough time this season. I wonder if that change back to 3B has been a bit taxing for him--especially coming back from an injury. A tough transition for a guy who made himself an all-star playing 1B.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Even within the 2011 season our lineup has changed. Yesterday's lineup with a very banged up Youkilis and no David Ortiz is very different from the lineup earlier in the year. It's very difficult to make an argument that a team has a pitcher's number even within a season.

 

Well, to be fair, when I posted that, it was when Ortiz was healthy. But regardless, I see your point. I still think there is a lot of validity of those stats, though.

[iortiz]

Exactly. I think the Sox will split' date=' or take 3/4. All I want, though, is a split. We split with TB, then we're up 4 with 10 to play. If the Rays go 4-3 vs NYY, and 2-1 vs TOR, the Sox would have to go 2-8 to finish the season against BAL and NYY.[/quote']

 

The scenario is encouraging in the race vs TB. Nevertheless, as I said, if we don't make at least 6 WINS and LAA & TEX still playing .700 and .600 respectively, our season could be in jeopardy. Sure, Still a long shot and seems that Beckett and Bedard are coming, but on the other hand Youk, Papi and recently A-God are not 100% healthy, so... we have to go game by game and not take any match for granted; the Division Lead is open as well and is another possibility.

 

Focus. Could we say that the magic number which open the PO's gates is 6?

[Station 13]

Since 2010 Bard has the most appearances by a reliever in the AL, pitch the most innings. Click "G" or "IP" to sort it.

 

You wonder why he has taken a dive late in the season each of the last 2 year?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0

[ORS]

Some posters tend to take the analysis by another poster and apply it to a different set of facts in another situation then conclude that the analsis is faulty' date=' because the conclusions in that analysis didn't hold true in that other situation. It's a faulty way to argue and it proves nothing.[/b']

 

I agree with you about Romero. He has been very good this season. The fact that the Sox have had success against him in past years doesn't translate to a higher probability of success this season. From year to year, the Red Sox line up has changed significantly, so it doesn't translate from year to year.

The numbers I used were from 2011 specifically for that purpose.

This is hysterical.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is hysterical.

 

It's funny because he's implying that I used career data which is manipulative because the changing of lineups, when in fact I used 2011 data which encompasses the current year's lineup?

 

:dunno:

[ORS]

It's funny because he's implying that I used career data which is manipulative because the changing of lineups, when in fact I used 2011 data which encompasses the current year's lineup?

 

:dunno:

It's funny because he soapboxes about something, and in the same post engages in the behavior he soapboxed against.

 

It's ok, though. I'm sure this is my fault somehow.

[SoxFanForsyth]

It's funny because he soapboxes about something, and in the same post engages in the behavior he soapboxed against.

 

It's ok, though. I'm sure this is my fault somehow.

 

Ah - My bad. I thought you were saying he was soapboxing about something, and then I did exactly what he was talking about again.

 

Sorry man - misunderstood the comment.

[a700hitter]

It's funny because he soapboxes about something, and in the same post engages in the behavior he soapboxed against.

 

It's ok, though. I'm sure this is my fault somehow.

No I didn't.

 

Edit: But I wouldn't expect you to be able to understand that because you engage in the tactic that I "soap boxed" about more than most posters. If you had understood how ineffective it is, I assume that you would have stopped engaging in it. So, i am not surprised that you don't even understand the point that i made.

[a700hitter]

It's funny because he's implying that I used career data which is manipulative because the changing of lineups, when in fact I used 2011 data which encompasses the current year's lineup?

 

:dunno:

I didn't imply that you had used career data. I stated flat out that's what I thought you were using. It was my misunderstanding. It usually happens when I am posting on my blackberry on the train. When you clarified for me that you were using 2011 data, I still took issue with it for the reasons that i have already stated.

[ORS]

No I didn't.

 

Edit: But I wouldn't expect you to be able to understand that because you engage in the tactic that I "soap boxed" about more than most posters. If you had understood how ineffective it is, I assume that you would have stopped engaging in it. So, i am not surprised that you don't even understand the point that i made.

Yes, you did, it's right there in the quotes for all to see. Something you have refrained from sharing in your phony accusation against me. Nice try to take the attention off yourself.

 

I know you are but what am I?

[a700hitter]

Yes, you did, it's right there in the quotes for all to see. Something you have refrained from sharing in your phony accusation against me. Nice try to take the attention off yourself.

 

I know you are but what am I?

Then they too would be misunderstanding what I had said.

[SoxSport]

Since 2010 Bard has the most appearances by a reliever in the AL, pitch the most innings. Click "G" or "IP" to sort it.

 

You wonder why he has taken a dive late in the season each of the last 2 year?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0

 

Just listened to a video about Bard by Bob Ryan and some other Globe guy.

 

Ryan doesn't get it. They refuse to think this guy maybe has hit a wall--with so many appearances. That would call into question the way the Red Sox handle their pitching--maximizing appearances, not innings. The Globe won't touch that issue. The media is funny that way.

[BornToRun]

Just listened to a video about Bard by Bob Ryan and some other Globe guy.

 

Ryan doesn't get it. They refuse to think this guy maybe has hit a wall--with so many appearances. That would call into question the way the Red Sox handle their pitching--maximizing appearances, not innings. The Globe won't touch that issue. The media is funny that way.

 

Simple fact is that he just flat out got tired. Despite that 3 plus ERA, he's been nothing but lights out this year save for September. You add the already worked bullpen with the loss of Bedard and Beckett along with Buchholz's prolonged absence and the recent issues of Lackey and Miller and you're looking at a bullpen that's gonna crash.

 

If Beckett, Lester, Buch, and Bedard are able to contribute in the postseason, I still trust our bullpen to shut people down, hopefully they'll have had some rest come the start of October.

[SoxSport]

Simple fact is that he just flat out got tired. Despite that 3 plus ERA, he's been nothing but lights out this year save for September. You add the already worked bullpen with the loss of Bedard and Beckett along with Buchholz's prolonged absence and the recent issues of Lackey and Miller and you're looking at a bullpen that's gonna crash.

 

If Beckett, Lester, Buch, and Bedard are able to contribute in the postseason, I still trust our bullpen to shut people down, hopefully they'll have had some rest come the start of October.

 

Sure. The kid got tired. Why the hell make a lot of other excuses?

 

In horse racing, when a horse goes sour, they put him out to pasture for a couple of weeks. then bring him back and train him back to form. Athletes are the same.

 

It's called conditioning. Every manager should own a race horse.

 

I don't think the Red Sox pay a lot of attention to conditioning--as a team.

[Spitball]

I am worried. I do think Millwood should have been brought up, but I recognize the difficulty in building a pitching staff. The injuries could not have been forseen but should have been anticipated. This season appears to be a huge disappointment.

 

Going forward, do the Red Sox go after C.J. Wilson? Next year looks like Beckett, Lester, Buccholtz, and a couple of question marks. Bullpens are tough to build for several reasons, but signing Paps should be a priority.

[iortiz]

I am worried. I do think Millwood should have been brought up' date=' but I recognize the difficulty in building a pitching staff. [b']The injuries could not have been forseen but should have been anticipated[/b]. This season appears to be a huge disappointment.

 

Going forward, do the Red Sox go after C.J. Wilson? Next year looks like Beckett, Lester, Buccholtz, and a couple of question marks. Bullpens are tough to build for several reasons, but signing Paps should be a priority.

 

Charge that to Theo.

[iortiz]

If tomorrow this team doesn't win (with Beckett on the mound) the panic button should be pushed deeply.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am worried. I do think Millwood should have been brought up, but I recognize the difficulty in building a pitching staff. The injuries could not have been forseen but should have been anticipated. This season appears to be a huge disappointment.

 

Going forward, do the Red Sox go after C.J. Wilson? Next year looks like Beckett, Lester, Buccholtz, and a couple of question marks. Bullpens are tough to build for several reasons, but signing Paps should be a priority.

 

You need to have a few MiLB options and a few fringe big league options outside of your 1-5. The Yankees leaned on their 2 MiLB signings and their kid came up huge in Nova. They had depth at AAA in Noesi, Phelps, Warren, Mitchell and eventually Banuelos and Betances. The sox had Doubront and Weiland. Weiland looks like meat right now, who knows how he turns out, but he isnt ready right now and Doubront is a reliever. Their depth is gone. Thats where Theo failed. He doesnt have a few options in the minors to call up for a spot start or more. And he had a veteran who could have helped who he let fly

[iortiz]

You need to have a few MiLB options and a few fringe big league options outside of your 1-5. The Yankees leaned on their 2 MiLB signings and their kid came up huge in Nova. They had depth at AAA in Noesi' date=' Phelps, Warren, Mitchell and eventually Banuelos and Betances. The sox had Doubront and Weiland. Weiland looks like meat right now, who knows how he turns out, but he isnt ready right now and Doubront is a reliever. [b']Their depth is gone. Thats where Theo failed.[/b] He doesnt have a few options in the minors to call up for a spot start or more. And he had a veteran who could have helped who he let fly

 

Agree.

 

That's what I've been saying. Sorry but, a cycle has ended. This organization needs to be shacked. Give somebody else the management in order to build a real and solid depth.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Agree.

 

That's what I've been saying. Sorry but, a cycle has ended. This organization needs to be shacked. Give somebody else the management in order to build a real and solid depth.

 

You just going to fire your GM everytime there's a bit of a gap in the farm system? That's dumb.

 

Theo said before the season their vulnerability was in pitching depth. He had explored all the avenues, but nothing was available. What did you want him to do? Millwood opted out of his contract. Nothing Theo could have done.

 

You have to understand that sometimes there is just nothing out there. You think that just because he's the GM he's got some magical power where he can create a player out of dust that is a QS. That's not the case. The depth that we have in pitching right now is depth for a reason. They're not good.

 

Any team that has to rely on their depth for 60% of their starts (Beckett, Bedard/Buchholz, DiceK all out) is going to lose a lot of games. Especially when two of those guys are two of your stud pitchers.

 

Did you want Theo to sign three guys to minor league deals who throw to a 4.00-4.20 ERA? Well I'd love that too. But he can't because those guys are already throwing every 5 days for a big league team.

 

It's just a s***** situation, but it's nobody's fault.

[Yanksin2k11]

LOL what a bunch of pathetic gay wads. Have fun watching the Pats this October. Your luck has finally run out!!! FAGGOTS LOLLLLLLLLLLLL (_)_)::::::::::: -- - - - -

[jacksonianmarch]

get banned dick

[SoxSport]

I won't have fun watching the Patriots this year--not after they go unbeaten and then get bombed again by the Jets and their bombastic coach in the playoffs.

 

Epstein has made a lot of mistakes. No use covering for him. He hasn't done much right the last two years except for Beltre. And he let Beltre go. Now he has a worn down Youks playing 3B. It's beginning to look like they should have spent their money on pitching instead of Crawford. And AdGon may have upset the chemistry--despite his ability. Millwood was let go in deference to a bunch of stiffs he is currently outpitching in Colorado.

 

There are good reasons the Red Sox are where they are right now. A lot of it has to do with pitching, and how it has been managed. Plus their questionable free agent signings.

[iortiz]

You just going to fire your GM everytime there's a bit of a gap in the farm system? That's dumb.

 

Theo said before the season their vulnerability was in pitching depth. He had explored all the avenues, but nothing was available. What did you want him to do? Millwood opted out of his contract. Nothing Theo could have done.

 

You have to understand that sometimes there is just nothing out there. You think that just because he's the GM he's got some magical power where he can create a player out of dust that is a QS. That's not the case. The depth that we have in pitching right now is depth for a reason. They're not good.

 

Any team that has to rely on their depth for 60% of their starts (Beckett, Bedard/Buchholz, DiceK all out) is going to lose a lot of games. Especially when two of those guys are two of your stud pitchers.

 

Did you want Theo to sign three guys to minor league deals who throw to a 4.00-4.20 ERA? Well I'd love that too. But he can't because those guys are already throwing every 5 days for a big league team.

 

It's just a s***** situation, but it's nobody's fault.

 

 

"You have to understand that sometimes there is just nothing out there"

 

"It's just a s***** situation, but it's nobody's fault."

 

He is not paid to give these such kind of answers. Large Enterprises don't work that way (even SMBs don't work that way). The CEOs, GMs, Main Directors, Heads, etc. are always charged if the ship fails, no matter how or what, THEY ARE ALWAYS CHARGED.

 

Are you excusing him again? Sorry dude, this is what is paid for in the first place; to plan, take decisions, execute and deliver results, over and over and over again. You have to understand that a GM is evaluated for the overall final outcome, if the the final outcome (whatever it means to JH) becomes a failure (especially back to back years) his head could be in jeopardy, you count on that.

 

I have nothing PERSONAL against him (as you think I am), I don't even know him. I'm just pointing his recent performance as a manager (Outside In analysis), that's all. The symptoms and signs are there and you just can't hide them anymore. If you are incompetent and no longer deliver the expected results (Championships=Money, Since this team was built in order to achieve that), you have to go, and there is nothing dumb in there but the opposite, plain and simple common sense. IMO his cycle has ended.

[yeszir]

20/20 hindsight, and even still I'm not sure what would have been done differently.

 

Everyone was falling over themselves before the season started about how AWESOME this team was going to be. Then everyone freaked out over 0-7 before patting themselves on the back for sticking with it once the team turned it around and started steamrolling everyone. Now its back to "I knew this was coming all along".

 

When the team makes the playoffs and rolls in the ALDS its gonna be "this team has the will to overcome injuries! I knew they were awesome!" and then when they lose in the ALCS its gonna be "f*** this team" again.