2011 Playoffs for granted?

[jacksonianmarch]

I am a bit conflicted in terms of who to root for. The Yanks are effectively assured of a playoff spot and are close to locks for the division, so the WC doesnt really matter for our first round matchup. But TB is the better play in the playoffs due to their rotation and their health, but I hate the red sox.

[SoxFanForsyth]

4-11 or 6-5. Up to you.

[jacksonianmarch]

4-11 was vs a different team. Your team right now is beat up, overworked, and broken.

[iortiz]

4-11 was vs a different team. Your team right now is beat up' date=' overworked, and broken.[/quote']

 

Seems so. But somehow the Red Sox always play different and put all in the field when they face NY.

 

If I were a NY fan, I would prefer the Rays over the Red Sox, everyday.

 

On the other hand, As a Red Sox fan, these days, I would prefer NY in a heartbeat over the Rays.

 

It's funny how the combinations work.

[iortiz]

Poor poor Theo. He's so unlucky. All the good players were taken. No one was available. It would have been too expensive to get any reinforcements. Plus, we wouldn't want to sacrifice the future by trading any of the numerous future superstars in our system. You'll see. They'll be here any year now.

 

If JH and the other owners buy this crap ^ they are soft in the head.

 

I'd be surprise if they do, really. But if he dare buy that crap I'd start calling him, John William "The Softy" Henry.

 

Hey Theo, I got a couple of napkins, just in case.

[SoxFanForsyth]

4-11 was vs a different team. Your team right now is beat up' date=' overworked, and broken.[/quote']

 

Really? Because Buchholz went 1-1, and Matsuzaka didn't throw. So the combo of the pitchers who are now starting for us are 10-3. Even better. Thank you for pointing that out.

[iortiz]

Is it just me or this Ray-hate is raising and raising at least since 2008.

 

Theo's decisions have collateral effects.

[jacksonianmarch]

Really? Because Buchholz went 1-1' date=' and Matsuzaka didn't throw. So the combo of the pitchers who are now starting for us are 10-3. Even better. Thank you for pointing that out.[/quote']

 

Yes, and your pen isnt shutdown, we've seemed to have figured out how to get Lester out of the game and we actually hit Beckett last time around. Oh, and I forgot, how many times did you face a pitcher who wont be starting in the postseason? The sox always lined up their best starters for the Yanks. We seemed to always have CC going, but the next 2 were crapshoots. You havent seen arguably our 2nd best pitcher all yr

[SoxFanForsyth]

Beckett vs CC: 4-0. And now you're hanging your hat on Colon/Nova/Garcia.

 

I'll take the Sox over the Yankees all day in a PS series. Bard has a mechanical flaw, obviously since it's not an ortho injury, you wouldn't understand.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Rays lose. Sox up 4 with 14 to play. Split the series w TB this weekend, and it's 4 with 10 to play.

[iortiz]

I didn't notice, but you can start adding the LAA as another legit team in the search for the WC, didn't see it coming. By now, they are 4.5 GB.

 

Seems like this gonna end like a dogfight if we don't win the series against the Rays, gentlemen.

[jacksonianmarch]

Beckett vs CC: 4-0. And now you're hanging your hat on Colon/Nova/Garcia.

 

I'll take the Sox over the Yankees all day in a PS series. Bard has a mechanical flaw, obviously since it's not an ortho injury, you wouldn't understand.

 

Or he's overworked. But you wouldnt understand that, would you. The rosey glasses blind you

[SoxFanForsyth]

I didn't notice, but you can start adding the LAA as another legit team in the search for the WC, didn't see it coming. By now, they are 4.5 GB.

 

Seems like this gonna end like a dogfight if we don't win the series against the Rays, gentlemen.

 

Not really. The Angels need to pass the Rangers before they get to the Sox (Angels down 2.5 to Rangers). For the Angels to pass the Rangers, the Rangers will have to lose. If the Rangers lose, the Sox will either tread water or gain ground on them. So both the Rangers and the Angels will have to pass the Red Sox for them to be in the discussion.

[Cocos Disciples]

I'm hanging my hat on the fact that the playoffs are more or less a crapshoot. Just have to get in. Sox won't be going in strong, and they're banged up, but in a short series you never know.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Or he's overworked. But you wouldnt understand that' date=' would you. The rosey glasses blind you[/quote']

 

Nope. I guess I believe him, our manager, and our pitching coach when they say "His arm is fine, he is healthy, his timing is just off", especially when Bard says "I felt it every pitch, couldn't get the timing".

 

But you're the eternal pessimist, so you can mark him down for TJ.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nope. I guess I believe him, our manager, and our pitching coach when they say "His arm is fine, he is healthy, his timing is just off", especially when Bard says "I felt it every pitch, couldn't get the timing".

 

But you're the eternal pessimist, so you can mark him down for TJ.

 

I never said anything about him needing surgery. I said he's overworked, the shoulder is tired, and when the arm lags behind the mechanics are off.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm hanging my hat on the fact that the playoffs are more or less a crapshoot. Just have to get in. Sox won't be going in strong' date=' and they're banged up, but in a short series you never know.[/quote']

 

I like the Sox in any short series with Beckett - Lester as the 1-2 punch, and the Sox offense backing those pitchers. Obviously the Tigers have Verlander/Fister, and Rangers have Wilson/Lewis, but I'll match Beckett/Lester up with either one of those teams if I get our offense.

 

Put it this way - looking at it from the outside in, they would be the last team I wanted to face. And lets not forget, there are still 14 games left. They could easily rattle off an 11-3 stretch now that Beckett and Bedard are back in the rotation.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I never said anything about him needing surgery. I said he's overworked' date=' the shoulder is tired, and when the arm lags behind the mechanics are off.[/quote']

 

I just don't see it. The first thing you see in a fatigued arm is a drop in velocity, and he was 97-98 today, just like always. I would love it if they didn't have to throw him but 1-2 more times before the PS, because I agree that he has been worked to death, but I don't think that's his problem. I think its the timing of his delivery.

[iortiz]

LAA's schedule

 

3 at BAL

4 at TOR

3 vs A's

3 vs TEX

 

They are playing .700 the last 10 games and their calendar looks likely winnable at least against TOR, A's and BAL and at least take 1 game vs TEX at home.

If they win 10 games which is probable, they would be finishing with 92 Wins which means that the Sox would need to win at least 7 games in the 14 left, so we need to play .500 in order to not depend on LAA's results.

 

That's the panorama.

[SoxFanForsyth]

LAA's schedule

 

3 at BAL

4 at TOR

3 vs A's

3 vs TEX

 

They are playing .700 the last 10 games and their calendar looks likely winnable at least against TOR, A's and BAL and at least take 1 game vs TEX at home.

If the win 10 games which is probable, they would be finishing with 92 Wins which means that the Sox would need to win at least 7 games in the 14 left, so we need to play .500 in order to not depend on LAA's results.

 

That's the panorama.

 

They're in the AL West. For them to win the Wild Card, they have to win, the Rangers have to win, and the Sox have to lose. That's what I'm saying. I don't care about their schedule because all they have to do is beat Texas, whom they are 2.5 down on. If they catch Texas, that means Texas is losing.

 

The Angels E# for the WC is 10. That means if the Sox go 6-8 in their last 14, the Angels have to go 10-4 to catch the Sox.

 

Chill out fellas. We're fine.

[iortiz]

Not really. The Angels need to pass the Rangers before they get to the Sox (Angels down 2.5 to Rangers). For the Angels to pass the Rangers' date=' the Rangers will have to lose. If the Rangers lose, the Sox will either tread water or gain ground on them. So both the Rangers and the Angels will have to pass the Red Sox for them to be in the discussion.[/quote']

 

I'm talking about the WC race, they are 4.5 GB from us right now. The Rangers are off-topic BY NOW.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm talking about the WC race' date=' they are 4.5 GB from us right now. The Rangers are off-topic BY NOW.[/quote']

 

I don't know how to be any more clear. The Angels are closer to the Rangers than they are to the WC, so the Rangers have to win, the Angels have to win, and the Red Sox have to lose.

[jacksonianmarch]

I just don't see it. The first thing you see in a fatigued arm is a drop in velocity' date=' and he was 97-98 today, just like always. I would love it if they didn't have to throw him but 1-2 more times before the PS, because I agree that he has been worked to death, but I don't think that's his problem. I think its the timing of his delivery.[/quote']

 

That's not necessarily true. A tired arm can manifest in either velo drop or loss of command.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's not necessarily true. A tired arm can manifest in either velo drop or loss of command.

 

It's almost certainly true. A "dead arm" basically is what we're describing. Loss of command is due to mechanics. Loss of velocity is due to a tired arm.

[SoxSport]

This isn't over yet. TB-NY-Sox have too many games left between them that can make the difference.

[iortiz]

They're in the AL West. For them to win the Wild Card, they have to win, the Rangers have to win, and the Sox have to lose. That's what I'm saying. I don't care about their schedule because all they have to do is beat Texas, whom they are 2.5 down on. If they catch Texas, that means Texas is losing.

 

The Angels E# for the WC is 10. That means if the Sox go 6-8 in their last 14, the Angels have to go 10-4 to catch the Sox.

 

Chill out fellas. We're fine.

 

True, my bad, our magic number is 6 not 7, which means we have to start playing .428 right away if they win 10 which is reachable considering their calendar.

 

Again, is it for granted? For what I've seen, sorry but I'm not sure anymore.

[iortiz]

I don't know how to be any more clear. The Angels are closer to the Rangers than they are to the WC' date=' so [b']the Rangers have to win, the Angels have to win, and the Red Sox have to lose[/b].

 

Nobody is saying the opposite dude, but the possibility still there; Sure, still a longshot (like with TB 10 Games ago, remember how confident you were?) but guess what? It is exactly what it has been happening whith these teams lately; TEX and LAA have been winning and BOS losing, don't believe me?

 

Last 10 games these teams have been playing:

 

LAA .700

TEX .600

BOS? .200; we need to improve .228 pts. in order to not depend on LAA's results if they win 10 G.

 

EDIT. I'm supposing that LAA doesn't reach TEX which means TEX continuos winning.

[a700hitter]

A Rays sweep of the Sox this weekend is highly unlikely. The O's have taken the heat off the Sox big time by beating the Rays the last 2 days.

[iortiz]

I think they will split.

[yankees228]

Just wanted to remind you of this' date=' Yankee228. I guess those 18 runs last night were a result of another small sample size. Morrow will probably get em next time out.[/quote']

 

Show me where I said Morrow would pitch well? Morrow has been bad this year ... so there was good reason to expect him to be bad against the Red Sox. Romero has been good this year ... so there was good reason to expect him to be good against the Red Sox (and he threw a decent game). If you interpreted my argument as me saying that Morrow would pitch a good game than you interpreted it incorrectly. Literally my only argument the entire time was that his entire body of work is a better predictor than his numbers in a small sampling vs a single team.