2011 Playoffs for granted?

[yankees228]

Managers actually do this all of the time. Gonzalez sat vs Romero last time because he struggles vs him.

 

They do that as an opportunity to give the player a rest ... not because they think the replacement has a better chance than the starter.

[yankees228]

But I guess that means you would choose Player B ... which means we've reached an impasse and there just isn't much of a point to going forward.

[Palodios]

I do think that, because what happens in small samplings has no predictive value.

 

Let me ask you this. Player A is the best player on his team. Player B is a poor hitting bench player. However, against the pitcher they're facing, Player A is a career 1/20 off him, while Player B is 7/20. Based on your argument, Player B should start. Do you actually think this?

 

Certain hitters do better against certain type of pitchers. I would bet that in cases where they would sit someone in a scenario like this, the team's statisticians probably evaluate a player's skill against certain pitches to see if those results are luck-based or because the specific pitcher has the skill set to get that batter out.

[jacksonianmarch]

Even with Romero's splits vs the sox, he's capable of shutting anyone down. Lackey's splits vs the entire league suck and he isnt really capable of anything.

[yankees228]

Certain hitters do better against certain type of pitchers. I would bet that in cases where they would sit someone in a scenario like this' date=' the team's statisticians probably evaluate a player's skill against certain pitches to see if those results are luck-based or because the specific pitcher has the skill set to get that batter out.[/quote']

 

So you'd sit your best player based on a 20 AB sampling?

[iortiz]

Even with Romero's splits vs the sox' date=' he's capable of shutting anyone down. [b']Lackey's splits vs the entire league suck and he isnt really capable of anything[/b].

 

You just buried Lackey Jacko

[iortiz]

So you'd sit your best player based on a 20 AB sampling?

 

It's hard to say, it depends on several circumstances. I mean, suppose that your ace is slumping, and your bench player just got hot plus that handicap... it's really hard to say, it is not trivial IMO, nevertheless, I would go with my ace.

[Palodios]

So you'd sit your best player based on a 20 AB sampling?

 

Certain batters hit certain pitches better than others. Would you sit Pedro Cerrano against a guy who throws only curveballs?

[yankees228]

Certain batters hit certain pitches better than others. Would you sit Pedro Cerrano against a guy who throws only curveballs?

 

The best player on your isn't likely to have such an extreme weakness against off-speed pitches. The hypothetical 20 AB sampling is almost certainly a coincidence, similar to a team having an .800 winning percentage on Wednesdays.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I do think that, because what happens in small samplings has no predictive value.

 

Let me ask you this. Player A is the best player on his team. Player B is a poor hitting bench player. However, against the pitcher they're facing, Player A is a career 1/20 off him, while Player B is 7/20. Based on your argument, Player B should start. Do you actually think this?

 

Went to bed last night, so I didn't get a good chance to respond to this. Anyway - comparing hitters and pitchers is comparing apples and oranges. Hitters need repetition to get into groves, so sitting one player (even though I referenced Gonzo sitting vs Romero bc of poor numbers, which Crawford also sat in that game bc of poor numbers, not solely for rest) doesn't compare to pitching.

 

A better comparison would be when managers re-create the rotation so that the matchups are favorable for the upcoming series. For example, you see Lackey in almost every series vs the Mariners and A's. Why? Well, the M's and A's suck, but also because he's got so much experience against them, and he's got a lot of good numbers.

 

The question of "Who is a better pitcher" is a lot different than asking "Is Pitcher A better vs the Red Sox than Pitcher B is vs the Blue Jays?"

[SoxFanForsyth]

The best player on your isn't likely to have such an extreme weakness against off-speed pitches. The hypothetical 20 AB sampling is almost certainly a coincidence' date=' similar to a team having an .800 winning percentage on Wednesdays.[/quote']

 

Just like the best pitcher on your team isn't likely to have a 7+ Career ERA vs a certain team? Or an 8+ ERA vs a team in the current year? Or even an 11+ ERA at Fenway in the current year?

 

Having a .800 WP on Wednesdays is completely ridiculous. Facing a lineup who has 6 hitters with a career OPS of 1.000+ against you spells bad news every time, and that's exactly what Romero brings.

 

Say what you want about sample sizes, but the fact remains that the Red Sox have always hit Romero extremely well, and there's zero indication of that changing, especially at Fenway.

[SoxSport]

Cafardo's article in the Globe today seemed to raise some questions about Francona's leadership--or lack of it.

Funny how the media can turn against a manager when the team starts losing.

 

Tito's style depends on the players creating their own motivation. That seems to fit with a team full of

expensive stars, like the Red Sox. But maybe complacency has set in. There are times when some discipline may be needed, and that's not Tito. I still have my doubts about the overall conditioning of this team, and I think they really missed their old bench manager, Brad Mills, the last 2 years. He was probably the discipline.

[jopete19]

If the Sox don't make the playoffs I'll buy everyone on this site living in or close to Boston season tickets and everyone else MLB.TV. Put that in your sig.

 

Deal please!

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'd be a lot more worried if our schedules were reversed, but as it stands, the Sox have 7 vs BAL, 2 vs TOR, 4 vs TB, and 3 vs NYY.

 

We play 10 of our remaining 16 games at home, whereas the Rays play 6 of their remaining 17 games at home.

 

The Rays will play 8 of those games @NYY and @BOS, as well.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd be a lot more worried if our schedules were reversed, but as it stands, the Sox have 7 vs BAL, 2 vs TOR, 4 vs TB, and 3 vs NYY.

 

We play 10 of our remaining 16 games at home, whereas the Rays play 6 of their remaining 17 games at home.

 

The Rays will play 8 of those games @NYY and @BOS, as well.

 

We understand this, but with the sox rotation as is, it doesnt matter which team you are facing. Baltimore can light up Andrew Miller, Tim Wakefield, Kyle Weiland and John Lackey. In order for your team to take the reigns and be strong, Beckett and Bedard need to come back. Beckett, Bedard, and Lester are the only players capable of throwing quality starts up there on a regular basis.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, the last 3 games of the season are between the Yanks and the Rays. If the Yankees maintain their current lead, then they'll have clinched prior to that series. We'd have nobody throwing and a lineup full of Ramiro Pena's. I'd be reluctant to say we'd take any of those games if the Rays were still in it

[SoxFanForsyth]

Also' date=' the last 3 games of the season are between the Yanks and the Rays. If the Yankees maintain their current lead, then they'll have clinched prior to that series. We'd have nobody throwing and a lineup full of Ramiro Pena's. I'd be reluctant to say we'd take any of those games if the Rays were still in it[/quote']

 

So, according to you, the Orioles will throw all of their best players at the Sox, and the Yankees will give the series to the Rays.

 

How optimistic of an opinion for a Yankee fan....

[jacksonianmarch]

The Orioles have been playing out the string for 3 months now, but still played us hard last week. They won't take this lying down, and if you throw a bunch of s*** pitchers out there, they can hurt you. And if the Yankees clinch prior to the final TB series, we'll probably have a lineup of Cervelli, Montero, Pena, Nunez, Laird, Dickerson, Golson, Jones, and Romine for 3 games and throw a rotation of Laffey, Noesi, and Proctor. Girardi is going to rest his guys when he gets the chance

[SoxFanForsyth]

You call me irrational for my comments? Can you possibly be any more pessimistic about the situation?

 

The Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 games, have a 3 games set @SEA where, tonight, you've got Hughes going up against Felix. Then tomorrow the Yankees have Burnett going, and could very easily be down 0-2 in that series in an instant. Furbush is a rookie who the Yankees have never seen, and we all know that the Yankees and Red Sox share a flaw in the inability to hit rookies.

 

So you're promoting all of this pessimism against the Sox when you've got a team who is 1-4 in their last 5, couldn't touch Haren or Weaver and is facing Felix tonight, and could very easily only be 2 games up on the Sox come Wednesday night.

 

Sure the Sox have some pitching flaws right now, but I can almost guarantee you that Aceves gets a start against the Rays, along with Lester and potentially Beckett. Sox have a day off today, they could easily come back tomorrow and the offense could be clicking. The Sox are 5-2 against the Blue Jays when playing at Fenway this year, and they've averaged 6.15 runs per game, and the first series came after the 2-10 start. They've crushed Romero. They've crushed Morrow. This could, quite easily, be a series where the offense gains some life and starts to take off.

[jopete19]

Sometimes I think as fans, we over analyze things. It's the game of baseball. If a couple of guys have a good day of hitting the ball, you win. We just need to get our confidence back and maybe Becket, haha.

[jacksonianmarch]

You call me irrational for my comments? Can you possibly be any more pessimistic about the situation?

 

The Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 games, have a 3 games set @SEA where, tonight, you've got Hughes going up against Felix. Then tomorrow the Yankees have Burnett going, and could very easily be down 0-2 in that series in an instant. Furbush is a rookie who the Yankees have never seen, and we all know that the Yankees and Red Sox share a flaw in the inability to hit rookies.

 

So you're promoting all of this pessimism against the Sox when you've got a team who is 1-4 in their last 5, couldn't touch Haren or Weaver and is facing Felix tonight, and could very easily only be 2 games up on the Sox come Wednesday night.

 

Sure the Sox have some pitching flaws right now, but I can almost guarantee you that Aceves gets a start against the Rays, along with Lester and potentially Beckett. Sox have a day off today, they could easily come back tomorrow and the offense could be clicking. The Sox are 5-2 against the Blue Jays when playing at Fenway this year, and they've averaged 6.15 runs per game, and the first series came after the 2-10 start. They've crushed Romero. They've crushed Morrow. This could, quite easily, be a series where the offense gains some life and starts to take off.

 

Wow, projecting much? Dude, we had lost 4 of 5, but our rotation is intact. We havent lost 60% of our rotation. Pitching is the name of the game. We got handled by Weaver and Haren. It happens

[iortiz]

At this point, it doesn't matter where we are playing or which pitcher or offense we are facing. My concern is our pitching, they are the show stopper.

 

Toronto has a respectable offense. As I said, If our pitching is not pounded early, we will have great chances to win, otherwise, the same film played lately will be in effect.

 

Lackey and Wake need to settle down for once and for all. It is ironic how much this team depends on these guys now, who would say?

[jacksonianmarch]

iortiz with the voice of reason. It's all about your rotation. Yes, the sox offense is solid, but if they are down a 4 spot early, they wont be as good as they would be if their pitcher actually threw a gem. The next 3 pitchers are going to be Wakefield, Lackey, and probably Miller. Does that sound promising? Seriously, the sox only advantage right now is that they are 3 games up in the L column. But if Beckett and Bedard dont find their way back to the mound, then that will dry up quickly. Today is actually an absolutely crucial day for the sox, and they arent even playing. Beckett throws a pen session today, if he comes through that well, then the sox will get a big boost. If Beckett comes back within the next week, the sox take the division. If he doesnt, then I think it will be a dogfight to the end

[SoxFanForsyth]

Wow' date=' projecting much? Dude, we had lost 4 of 5, but our rotation is intact. We havent lost 60% of our rotation. Pitching is the name of the game. We got handled by Weaver and Haren. It happens[/quote']

 

Hypocritical much? You're calling me out for projecting when you're talking about how the Yankees won't throw any of their regulars in the final 3 games of the season because they will have clinched, so the Rays will sweep the Yankees in the last 3 games??

 

And I'm the one projecting??

 

Dude you're a clown.

[jacksonianmarch]

Oh well, enjoy the end of the season. No logic can be taught to you

[iortiz]

TB vs O's LOL... I would not have considered as a key match at this point.

 

The announced pitchers are Niemann (he has a 4.07 ERA this season and 13.5 last seven days; nevertheless he has a 3.36 ERA at home and a 4.13 vs AL) vs Britton (he has a 4.33 ERA this season and 7.2 last seven days; nevertheless he has a 2.3 ERA at home and a 3.12 vs TB ). On the other hand TB's offense is the 25th and O's is the 13th in all baseball. The money line is 1.65 to TB and 2.30 to O's, so...

 

Stack your odds guys...

[a700hitter]

I'd be a lot more worried if our schedules were reversed, but as it stands, the Sox have 7 vs BAL, 2 vs TOR, 4 vs TB, and 3 vs NYY.

 

We play 10 of our remaining 16 games at home, whereas the Rays play 6 of their remaining 17 games at home.

 

The Rays will play 8 of those games @NYY and @BOS, as well.

I would prefer to play on the moon and have the Rays pitching at this point. Our home field will not overcome the slugs that we will be sending to the hill.

[a700hitter]

So, according to you, the Orioles will throw all of their best players at the Sox, and the Yankees will give the series to the Rays.

 

How optimistic of an opinion for a Yankee fan....

Jacko has a very valid point. Knocking off the Red Sox or any other team is all the Orioles have left. The Yankees on the other hand would love for the Sox to get eliminated. Jacko's points are very valid. You should be very concerned about how this is playing out.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm not saying that I'm not concerned, but I also watched the Yankees the past few games, and they are not playing any better than the Red Sox right now. Outside of a Bourjos error, the Yankees could well have been swept in Anaheim.

 

What I'm saying is that either the division won't be decided by the time the Yankees and Rays play, which means the Yankees will still be playing their best to win the division, and it won't just be a cakewalk. Or the Sox will have padded their lead over the Rays, making the final series borderline meaningless.

 

Plain and simple, the Red Sox are 3.5 up on the Rays, and 3.5 down on the Yankees. And the Rays and Yankees play each other 7 more times this season. There are two probable scenarios that could play out here.

 

1. The Rays make a push. They will beat the Yankees in at least 3/4 games at NYY. The Sox (who are facing the Orioles at the time) will likely gain ground on the Yankees. Barring a NYY sweep of BOS, this makes the division undecided heading into the final series of the year, and thus the Yankees will throw their guns at the Rays and not just roll over.

 

2. The Yankees run away with the division. They beat the Rays in 3/4, and the Red Sox pad a bit of a lead on them (again, playing the Orioles, likely will win 3/4), which means it doesn't matter how the Yankees face the Rays, because the Sox will probably be clinched by that series.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Also - Look at the past few times we had a bad streak, and how the team responded.

 

Started 2-10, after that, went on a 8-1 streak.

 

In IL Play, 3-7, after that, went on a 17-3 streak.

 

Went 2-5 @MIN, @ SEA, v TB. After that, went on an 8-3 run.

 

We're getting Youk back tomorrow. He plays 4X better at home than on the road. Beckett's throwing a BP session today, could possibly throw this week vs TB, and I guarantee you if he feels halfway decent, he's not going to take No for an answer. Aceves will almost undoubtedly start for Weiland or Miller this week. He gives us a much better chance to win.

 

Plain and simple, we've been through this before. We came out of it on top, and we'll do the same again. Pitching should be getting healthy by the end of this week. Bedard will get the ball next week while the Yankees and Rays are playing.

 

Obviously this isn't how we drew it up, but this team is fine.