The CocoMetric: 2011 Version

[Cocos Disciples]

Back in the day, TheKilo would post educated and well-researched predictions for the remainder of the season. He doesn't post here anymore, but it's a good idea so I'm going to take a shot at it this year. I'll be doing this for the Sox and Yankees, going series-by-series and making predictions based on opponent, home/road splits, head-to-head results, etc. The past couple KiloMetrics have included Tampa Bay, but after a huge slide resulted in them 10 games behind the Sox, I think it's fairly safe to count them out. Essentially I am just trying to make an non-biased and educated guess at how the season will end up.

 

Not surprisingly, the first four months of the season have been very close. After a rough April, the Sox have been the best team in baseball, playing at a 109-win pace after their 2-10 start. Their offense has been excellent, with a superb 1-2-3 of Ellsbury-Pedroia-Gonzalez, and their pitching has been good enough so far, especially with the emergence of some key bullpen arms. The addition of Erik Bedard should shore up the rotation, which has its share of question marks with the injury to Clay Buchholz.

 

The Yankees have been steady for the whole year, and while they've spent most of 2011 in 2nd place, they haven't fallen more than 3 games behind the Sox all season. Their rotation had major question marks coming into the season, but the additions of Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia, along with the promotion of Ivan Nova, have answered most of those. In the bullpen, David Robertson has emerged as a reliable 8th inning solution, while Rafael Soriano has been perfect since returning from the DL. On the offensive side, Curtis Granderson has had a huge breakout season and has emerged as a star.

 

I fully expect the AL East battle to go down to the final week, though the loser will still make the playoffs via the Wild Card. Now, let's try to determine which team will come out on top.

 

Before I do this, here's some charts of things to consider:

 

[table]Team|Home Record|Away Record|Home Games Left|Away Games Left|Remaining Opponent W%

Boston|37-22|35-22|22|24|.501

New York|39-23|32-22|19|27|.489[/table]

 

Both teams have essentially the same home-road splits. The Sox have an extra series at home, but their opponents are also slightly better for the final seven weeks. This mainly comes from the two series that the Sox play Texas, while the Yankees do not at all.

 

Now let's check out the pythags:

 

[table]Team|Runs Scored|Runs Allowed|Actual Record|Pythag Record|Difference

Boston|631|487|72-44|71-45|+1

New York|622|450|71-45|75-41|-4[/table]

 

So, the Sox basically have the record they should, while the Yankees perhaps should be a few games better. I imagine this comes from the blowouts that the Yankees have won in the past couple weeks (17-7, 17-3, 18-7), and their 15-16 record in one-run games.

 

Anyway, the next two posts will be my predictions for the final 1 1/2 months of the season, series-by-series. Enjoy.

[SCM33]

what ever happened to thekilo??? that guy was funny s***.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

He stopped by a couple days ago actually. First time I've seen him since his Packers won the super bowl. Great poster wish he'd post more often.

[Cocos Disciples]

BOSTON RED SOX (72-44)

 

[table]Dates|Opponent|Result|Record

8/12-8/14|@ SEA|2-1|74-45

8/16-8/17|v. TB|2-1|76-46

8/18-8/21|@ KC|3-1|79-47

8/22-8/25|@ TEX|2-2|81-49

8/26-8/28|v. OAK|2-1|83-50

8/30-9/1|v. NYY|2-1|85-51

9/2-9/4|v. TEX|2-1|87-52

9/5-9/8|@ TOR|2-2|89-54

9/9-9/11|@ TB|2-1|91-55

9/13-9/14|v. TOR|1-1|92-56

9/15-9/18|v. TB|2-2|94-58

9/19-9/21|v. BAL|3-1|97-59

9/23-9/25|@ NYY|1-2|98-61

9/26-9/28|@ BAL|2-1|100-62[/table]

 

So in my prediction, the Sox end up with their first 100-win season since 1946. This makes sense to me, as they're actually currently on pace for 101 wins.

 

I certainly don't expect the season to go exactly like this. There will likely be a more drastic hot stretch and a more drastic cold stretch, but I think they'll even out to make this prediction make sense. I think it's pretty reasonable to think the Sox will win 100 games this season.

[Cocos Disciples]

NEW YORK YANKEES (71-45)

 

[table]Dates|Opponent|Result|Record

8/12-8/14|v. TB|2-1|73-46

8/15-8/17|@ KC|2-1|75-47

8/18-8/21|@ MIN|3-1|78-48

8/23-8/25|v. OAK|2-1|80-49

8/26-8/29|@ BAL|4-1|84-50

8/30-9/1|@ BOS|1-2|85-52

9/2-9/4|v. TOR|2-1|87-53

9/5-9/7|v. BAL|2-1|89-54

9/9-9/11|@ LAA|1-2|90-56

9/12-9/14|@ SEA|2-1|92-57

9/16-9/18|@ TOR|1-2|93-59

9/19|v. MIN|1-0|94-59

9/20-9/22|v. TB|2-1|96-60

9/23-9/25|v. BOS|2-1|98-61

9/26-9/28|@ TB|2-1|100-62[/table]

 

So I actually think the Yankees will also end up with 100 wins, the same total as the Red Sox. However, due to the Red Sox (projected) 13-5 record against the Yankees, the Red Sox will take the AL East and the Yankees will win the Wild Card.

 

The Yankees have a slightly easier schedule than Boston in the stretch, so I think they'll go 29-17, as opposed to Boston's 28-18. This would mean New York plays slightly better than they have been, while Boston slightly worse. This is in line with their current pythag records.

[yeszir]

Good stuff Coco

[jacksonianmarch]

I understand the conservativism, but you have no real sweeps and you have the sox losing just one more series the rest of the yr. I still think the sox take the division, though, and I think both teams around 100 wins is reasonable

[SoxFanForsyth]

I would say that one of the following two is going to happen this weekend.

 

The Yankees, facing Shields, Hellickson, and Price, will drop 2 of 3, or the Sox, with Beckett up against Felix, will sweep the M's.

[Cocos Disciples]

I understand the conservativism' date=' but you have no real sweeps and you have the sox losing just one more series the rest of the yr. I still think the sox take the division, though, and I think both teams around 100 wins is reasonable[/quote']

 

Yeah I was wary of that as I made it. It's definitely not perfect, we'll see.

[Youk Of The Nation]

I am almost choking on my own vomit as I type this, but I...well...ugh...I...

 

agreewithjacksonianmarch

 

 

Whew, there.

 

 

I think 'conservative' is a good word for it. It's a reasonable prediction, record-wise, but I think the odds of both teams going the remainder of the season without a three-game sweep are slim. I would guess that the Sox sweep one or both of the O's series, and considering the way they have played each other this season, the 3-game Jays series as well.

 

 

However, that is not to say that your charts are anything but an excellent piece of baseball work. Love to see how your choices play out.

[SoxSport]

I have the sense that the Yankees schedule so far has been easier than the Sox'. For one, they have consistently been 3-5 games ahead in home games since the start of the season. They spent a good deal of time at home in April, for example, while the Red Sox were starting very slowly on the road.

 

The schedule differences are supposed to even up by season end, but I'm not so sure because of the nature of the scheduling, with divisions and interleague play, etc.

 

Were it not for the huge (10-2?) face to face advantage vs NY, the Red Sox might be 5-6 games behind the Yankees right now, since their record against other teams is worse than NYs. Is that because of the Sox have a tougher schedule against other teams? I don't know.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I have the sense that the Yankees schedule so far has been easier than the Sox'. For one, they have consistently been 3-5 games ahead in home games since the start of the season. They spent a good deal of time at home in April, for example, while the Red Sox were starting very slowly on the road.

 

The schedule differences are supposed to even up by season end, but I'm not so sure because of the nature of the scheduling, with divisions and interleague play, etc.

 

Were it not for the huge (10-2?) face to face advantage vs NY, the Red Sox might be 5-6 games behind the Yankees right now, since their record against other teams is worse than NYs. Is that because of the Sox have a tougher schedule against other teams? I don't know.

 

The 10-2 record is probably about as fluky as the 2-11 start, these things tend to normalize

[Cocos Disciples]

Thanks for the input guys. You're probably right that it's conservative from series to series. But I am fairly confident in the end result.

[SoxSport]

The 10-2 record is probably about as fluky as the 2-11 start' date=' these things tend to normalize[/quote']

 

I don't think either was flukey. I think the Yankees are concerned about their inability to beat the Sox--especially the lack of CCs success against them. Their pitching may not be good enough against the best hitting team in baseball. The slow start by the Sox might have been due to two major changes in the lineup and not playing enough together in ST for the lineup to gell.

 

I think both teams should be concerned about their ability to beat the Phillies, with Oswalt back pitching well again, and Pence added to the middle of the lineup. The Phillies are the team which has the pitching to win it all, though I think their closing is shakey.

[BornToRun]

Not that I'm saying it isn't the most likely scenario but I think it's funny how we're all already penciling the Phils in as the NL champion.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I can see the Phillies getting beat. Some tough NL teams entering the playoffs.

[BornToRun]

I can see the Phillies getting beat. Some tough NL teams entering the playoffs.

 

Hopefully Arizona goes on a comes out of nowhere, as in winning the pennant, and we get them in the series, them or Milwaukee.